2:00PM Water Cooler 1/10/2025 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Tune of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Audrey Carroll Audubon Sanctuary, Frederick, Maryland, United States. “Very liquid sound to this birds music. Good. Human voices and Fish crows in background.” Cows, too.

In Case You May Miss…

1. New Covid information, Covid and mortality.
2. LA Palisades Hearth: Misinformation.
3. SEIU joins AFL-CIO.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Transition

“Trump discusses his viral second with Obama” [Politico]. “The president-elect was requested about it later in a Fox Information interview from his dwelling in Florida. ‘It did look very pleasant, I need to say,’ Trump stated. ‘I didn’t understand how pleasant it regarded. I noticed it in your fantastic community, just a bit whereas in the past earlier than I got here in and I stated ‘Boy, they appear to be two folks that like one another.’ And we in all probability do,” he stated. Trump didn’t say what he and Obama have been speaking about within the viral second. ‘Now we have little totally different philosophies, proper? I don’t know, we simply obtained alongside. However I obtained together with all people on that. You understand we met backstage earlier than we went on, and I believed it was a wonderful service, however all of us obtained alongside very effectively.’” • In the meantime, the lipreader as soon as extra–

“Right here’s what Trump has to say about that viral change with Barack Obama at Jimmy Carter’s funeral” [New York Post]. “Forensic lip reader Jeremy Freeman instructed The Publish Thursday that it’s doable they have been cautious of cameras being pointed at them as they sat shoulder to shoulder and wished to look cordial. Freeman stated the 2 have been presumably chatting about worldwide agreements. At one level, Trump leaned towards Obama and stated, ‘I’ve pulled out of that. It’s the situations. Are you able to think about that?’ Trump didn’t dive into the specifics of the pleasant chat. Obama laughed as Trump added, ‘And after, I’ll.’ ‘Name me at after, yep,’ Trump stated, to which Obama replied, ‘Are you able to simply … it must be good.’ ‘I can’t discuss, we have now to discover a quiet place someday. It is a matter of significance, and we have to do that outdoors in order that we will take care of it, actually, immediately,’ Trump allegedly stated as Obama nodded.” • However what the heck is “the foy”? Foy means “feast,” however it’s mainly Scottish. One thing at Trump’s golf course?!” Or Claire Foy? (I believed I had the reply when “FOIA” popped into my head, however that amkes no sense in context.

* * *

“DOGE is dispatching brokers throughout U.S. authorities” [WaPo]. “Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are sending representatives to companies throughout the federal authorities, 4 folks acquainted with the matter stated, to start preliminary interviews that can form the tech executives’ monumental ambitions to tame Washington’s sprawling paperwork. In current days, aides with the nongovernmental [but not a corporation, not a 501(c)(3), not a private club, so what?] ‘Division [sic] of Authorities Effectivity’ tied to [which means?] President-elect Donald Trump’s transition staff have spoken with staffers at greater than a dozen federal companies, stated the folks, who spoke on the situation of anonymity as a result of they weren’t approved to talk with the media. The companies embrace the Treasury Division, the Inner Income Service and the departments of Homeland Safety, Veterans Affairs, and Well being and Human Companies, the folks stated.” Spoken beneath what authority? Elon’s mother? Extra: “On the similar time, Musk and Ramaswamy have considerably stepped up hiring for his or her new entity [Oh, DOGE is an entity], with greater than 50 staffers already understanding of the workplaces of SpaceX, Musk’s rocket-building firm, in downtown Washington, two of the folks stated. DOGE goals to have a workers of near 100 folks in place by Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, they stated. Whereas a lot about DOGE stays unclear [that is, we don’t know under what authority] — together with who’s paying the salaries of those staffers or precisely how DOGE representatives work with the formal transition staff — the company outreach displays intensifying efforts by Musk and Ramaswamy to suggest what they are saying will probably be “drastic” cuts to federal spending and laws.” • One wonders what the DOGE onboard course of is like, and whether or not, for instance, it takes battle of curiosity under consideration.

“Is Elon Musk probably the most highly effective civilian since Rasputin?” [The Telegraph]. “Historical past is scattered with ‘civilians’ for whom self-regard and excessive wealth fed a way of megalomania that made them assume they need to, and will, change the political course of. Generally they managed to remain on the best aspect of the road of propriety and, by utilizing their wealth to do good works, did nice public companies. Generally their energy got here by displaying enormous ethical braveness that impressed a following, and never wealth, and so they circumvented the political class and adjusted the world for the higher. Usually it ended badly, in levels of humiliation and even dying [yikes], as their dedication to affect statecraft met resistance or ridicule from these supporting typical politics. Take, for instance, Grigory Rasputin….” • Take Rasputin. Please!

* * *

“Gabbard reverses course on key intel-gathering device as nomination teeters” [Punchbowl]. “Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii), President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for director of nationwide intelligence, is altering her tune on a key intelligence-gathering authority she as soon as sought to repeal as her Senate affirmation hangs within the stability. Gabbard’s previous criticisms of Part 702 of the International Intelligence Surveillance Act have emerged as a central difficulty in her affirmation course of, leaving GOP senators — together with some in management — more and more skeptical concerning the former Democrat’s affirmation prospects. In her first public feedback since being nominated, Gabbard instructed us in an unique assertion that she now helps Part 702, saying this system is ‘essential’ and ‘should be safeguarded to guard our nation whereas making certain the civil liberties of Individuals.’ ;If confirmed as DNI, I’ll uphold Individuals’ Fourth Modification rights whereas sustaining important nationwide safety instruments like Part 702 to make sure the protection and freedom of the American folks,’ Gabbard stated. In non-public conferences, senators are questioning Gabbard about laws she launched in 2020 that might repeal Part 702. Nonetheless, Gabbard now seems to be strolling that again, citing Fourth Modification protections carried out since then to stop the incidental assortment of Individuals’ information.” • Seems to be like some Republicans love spooks simply as a lot as Democrats do.

* * *

“How Trump Got here Round to Crypto — and What Crypto Desires in Return” [Bloomberg]. “Trump nominated crypto supporter Paul Atkins to exchange Gensler, and that announcement helped Bitcoin climb above $100,000 for the primary time. The president-elect nominated David Sacks to the newly created place of synthetic intelligence and crypto czar. Trump can be making a crypto advisory group, made up of backers of the business. Trump stated in a December Fact Social publish that Bo Hines would be the govt director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Belongings, reporting to Sacks. Trump stated he plans to have the US authorities preserve reasonably than promote Bitcoin holdings seized by legislation enforcement, making these belongings the idea of a so-called strategic Bitcoin stockpile. Trump has additionally stated he would love all Bitcoin to be mined within the US; this promise could show troublesome to meet because of the actuality of decentralized networks and cheaper prices of power in different components of the world.” • “Strategic Bitcoin” my Candy Aunt Fanny.

Lawfare

“Trump sentenced to unconditional discharge in New York hush cash case, avoiding jail” [CNBC]. “President-elect Donald Trump was sentenced with none penalties Friday in his New York prison hush cash case, 10 days earlier than his inauguration for a second White Home time period. Manhattan Choose Juan Merchan sentenced Trump to “unconditional discharge,” that means no jail, no probation and no high-quality.” • Fully acceptable for Hitler!

Democrats en déshabillé

“Opening the DNC’s Black Field” [Micah Sifrey, The American Prospect]. “In response to the DNC, there are 448 lively members of the nationwide committee, together with 200 elected members from 57 states, territories, and Democrats Overseas; members representing 16 affiliate teams; and 73 ‘at-large’ members who have been elected as a slate appointed in 2021 by the social gathering chairman, Jaime Harrison. For a celebration that claims the phrase ‘democratic’ and insists that it’s a champion of transparency and accountability in authorities, the official roster of those 448 voters isn’t public. Michael Kapp, a DNC member from California who was first elected to that place by his state social gathering’s govt committee in 2016, instructed me the listing isn’t public ‘as a result of it’s the DNC—it’s a black field.’ He instructed me that management holds tightly to the listing to stop any organizing past their management. Right this moment, we’re going to open up the DNC’s black field. The listing we’re publishing was leaked to me by a trusted supply with lengthy expertise with the nationwide social gathering. Like Kapp, this individual thinks it’s absurd that the social gathering’s roster of voting members is secret. Certainly, since there is no such thing as a official public listing, every of the candidates operating for chair and different positions has undoubtedly needed to create their very own tallies from scratch—making it very possible our listing comes from a candidate’s whip operation.” • Anybody we all know?

Realignment and Legitimacy

“The Unstoppable Rise of Power Realism” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “For the final decade, Democrats and the left have ever extra eagerly embraced a local weather catastrophist narrative on power coverage…. So what have the Democrats gained from their fervent advocacy for local weather catastrophism? Not a lot…. Nor have Democrats been rewarded with a political bonanza for his or her embrace of local weather catastrophism. Fairly the opposite. They only misplaced the presidential election to an opponent who says “drill, child, drill” and whose precedence is affordable, ample power—not clear power…. Can Democrats wean themselves away from local weather catastrophism and their obsession with internet zero? It may very well be troublesome. Their internet zero dedication stems from the extraordinarily excessive precedence positioned on this purpose by the educated elites and activists who now dominate the social gathering. These elites and activists—not like working-class voters—consider that nothing is extra necessary than stopping world warming since it isn’t only a drawback, however an ‘existential disaster’ that should be confronted as quickly as doable to stop a world apocalypse.” • A lot to ponder.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Airborne Transmission

“Science tells us that transportable air filters cut back infections. It’s time for public well being authorities to make this clear” [Journal of Infection and Public Health]. “Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian public well being advisors and decision-makers have shared conflicted and complicated messages concerning the effectiveness of transportable air filters (PAFs) in controlling the unfold of airborne infectious ailments… Illnesses resembling COVID-19 are transmitted by respiratory particles that comprise infectious materials. If these particles are available contact with the mucous membranes of a prone particular person, there’s a danger of an infection. Typically, there’s a dose-response relationship—the extra infectious materials within the air, the better the chance of an infection. Thus, any mitigation measures that take away these particles from the air (or inactivate infectious supplies) will cut back the chance of transmission… This science is supported by many years of analysis and public well being and well being care apply demonstrating the effectiveness of PAFs in lowering the transmission of airborne ailments…. Whereas proof demonstrates that filtration reduces concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA within the air, this analysis shouldn’t have been required by public well being authorities earlier than implementation. PAFs, like different engineering interventions resembling seat belts, parachutes and bridges, are designed and evaluated in response to the legal guidelines of physics.” • Savage indictment of public well being and hospital an infection management,

Morbidity and Mortality

“The way forward for extra mortality after COVID-19” [Swiss Re Institute]. “4 years on from the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, many international locations worldwide nonetheless report elevated deaths of their populations. This affect seems usually unbiased of healthcare programs and inhabitants well being. This pattern is obvious even after accounting for shifting inhabitants sizes, and the vary of reporting mechanisms and dying classifications that make inter-country comparisons advanced. There may be additionally possible a level of extra mortality under-reporting…. This represents a possible problem for Life and Well being (L&H) insurance coverage, with probably a number of years of elevated mortality claims forward, relying on how normal inhabitants tendencies translate into the insured inhabitants. Ongoing extra mortality can have implications for L&H insurance coverage claims and reserves. Extra mortality that continues to exceed present expectations could have an effect on the long-term efficiency of in-force life portfolios in addition to the pricing of latest life insurance policies.” And: “Our normal inhabitants forecasts recommend that extra mortality will steadily tail off by 2033, to 0–3% within the US and 0–2.5% within the UK. As compared, by our calculation extra mortality in 2023 was within the vary of three–7% for the US, and 5–8% within the UK. Beneath an optimistic situation, we discover that US and UK pandemic-linked extra mortality would disappear by 2028, reverting to pre-pandemic mortality expectations. Beneath a pessimistic situation, we anticipate extra mortality to stay elevated till 2033, above pre-pandemic expectations.” • Useful chart:

How the Pandemic Elevated US Deaths!
Visualized in 8 charts by @jwgale in @enterprise

1. The Covid Pandemic Fueled a 4-Yr Mortality Surge within the US pic.twitter.com/H6CW6ya0sO

— Ziyad Al-Aly, MD (@zalaly) December 30, 2024

“Mortality in First Eight Months of 2024 2% Larger Than Predicted” [Actuaries Digital]. Australia. The Summary:

In abstract

• For the primary eight months of 2024, in opposition to a baseline that features anticipated COVID-19 deaths:
  • whole mortality was 2% larger than predicted;
  • COVID-19 mortality was 70% larger than predicted;
  • Non-COVID respiratory mortality was 8% larger than predicted, with pneumonia deaths 14% larger; and
  • these outcomes are all statistically vital.
• There have been 5 deaths from COVID-19 for each dying from influenza.
• Mortality from non-respiratory causes has been near predicted.

Elite Maleficence

Mandy Cohen visits Nassau County:

⏪ to once I visited a wastewater facility in Nassau County in November 2023. Be taught extra about how this device helps us higher perceive & monitor ailments on the native degree 👇 pic.twitter.com/y9vqEGkW0R

— Mandy Ok. Cohen, MD, MPH (@CDCDirector) January 10, 2025

I’m blissful Cohen gave wastewater testing some wanted publicity, however this may have been a very good time to put on a masks as an indication of resistance to Nassau County’s anti-masking ordinance.

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others will not be up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing extra purple and extra orange, however nothing new at main hubs.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has executed an awesome job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) Somewhat uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Positively jumped.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward pattern since, effectively, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Unemployment Fee” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment fee in america went right down to 4.1% in December of 2024 from 4.2% within the earlier month, beneath market expectations of 4.2%.”

Manufacturing: “FAA says as much as 574 Boeing 767 plane could require touchdown gear inspections” [Aerotime]. “The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has introduced that as much as 574 Boeing 767 plane could require touchdown gear inspections as a part of an Airworthiness Directive (AD). The AD, issued on January 8, 2025, raised issues over touchdown gear on US-registered 767-200s, 767-300s and 767-300 Freighters following an incident throughout upkeep. In response to the FAA, the AD was ‘prompted by a report of a important touchdown gear (MLG) collapse occasion following upkeep the place a grinder was working outdoors of its enter parameters, leading to doable warmth harm to the outer cylinder of the MLG.’”

Manufacturing: “Airbus Tops Rival Boeing with 766 Jet Deliveries in 2024” [Inc]. “Airbus delivered 766 jets in 2024 and regarded sure to take care of management of the jetmaking business for a sixth 12 months as arch-rival Boeing recovers cautiously from a chronic inside disaster, firm information confirmed.” However importantly: “Aerospace provide chains have been beneath strain due partly to an exodus of skilled staff throughout the pandemic, with aviation competing with different sectors to recruit new labour.”

Tech: “Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01” [Rodney Brooks]. Enjoyable stuff. Here’s a useful chart of failed predictions for robotic vehicles:

Legend: Dates in parens: When prediction was made. Dates in blue: When prediction will come true. Pink shading: Mistaken prediction. Orange arrow: retraction.

And the kicker:

Professional tip: Take into consideration this historical past of business prognostications about totally autonomous driving being simply across the nook if you learn immediately’s prognostications about LLMs taking jobs, en masse, within the subsequent couple of years, or humanoid robots being dust low-cost and with the ability to learn to do any human handbook job actual actual quickly now. You understand you’ve got seen this film earlier than…

Very a lot price studying in full (The creator is Panasonic Professor of Robotics emeritus at MIT).

Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 28 Concern (earlier shut: 32 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 33 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 10 at 3:28:04 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

Lord is aware of I maintain no temporary for California Democrats (“Every thing is like CalPERS”). However that is so over-the-top my tendency is to low cost any Republican protection of the California fires to zero.

“California wildfires: Police shoot down celebrities floating arson theories” [FOX]. “‘THERE IS an ARSONIST right here in LA,’ actor Henry Winkler wrote on Wednesday on X. ‘Could you be crushed you unrecognizable !!! The ache you’ve got triggered !!!’ Actress Alison Sweeney merely responded, ‘agreed.’ Singer Chris Brown took to his Instagram tales on Thursday and wrote, ‘Somebody beginning these fires. S— don’t add up.’ ‘Dancing with the Stars’ professional Peta Murgatroyd shared a tweet that was initially posted by political and cultural media persona Xaviaer DuRousseau that reads: ‘LOS ANGELES / SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THERE ARE AT LEAST FIVE MEN GOING AROUND IN SKI MASKS STARTING FIRES. KEEP AN EYE OUT.” However: “Regardless of the assorted claims, the Los Angeles Police Division instructed Fox Information Digital, “Now we have not obtained any stories of arson.’” • I don’t know why we’d consider actors on this, any greater than, say, mainstream economists (of whom, see beneath). Then once more–

“Homeless man with ‘flamethrower’ busted on suspicion of arson close to LA’s Kenneth Hearth after residents detain him” [New York Post]. “One witness instructed Fox 11 that the suspect was ‘very centered on shifting ahead’ with what the described as being extra like a blowtorch. ‘He was like, ‘I can’t cease. I can’t cease. I’m not placing this down. I’m doing this,” the witness stated. ‘And we’re like, ‘We are able to’t be doing that proper now.’” So a residents arrest is carried out: “Quickly after the suspect was taken into custody, the Los Angeles Police Division confirmed it was investigating the Kenneth Hearth as possible arson. ‘Presently, that’s what we consider. It’s being investigated as a criminal offense,’ LAPD Senior Lead Officer Sean Dinse initially instructed KTLA. The main crimes squad was introduced in as a result of he was ‘a doable arson suspect,’ LAPD Assistant Chief Dominic Choi instructed reporters in an replace later Friday. Nonetheless, the homeless man had so-far solely been arrested on a felony parole violation as a result of ‘there was not sufficient possible trigger to arrest this individual on arson or suspicion on arson,’ Choi stated. ‘This investigation is ongoing, nonetheless,’ he confused, thanking the residents who tackled him and referred to as it in. It was not instantly clear what felony the suspect, who has nonetheless but to be publicly recognized, was on parole for.” • So, the Kenneth hearth, and I think about that Winkler, et al., are considering of the Palisades hearth. That stated, my priors did kick in. Strengthened as they always are….

“Economists Are within the Wilderness. Can They Discover a Method Again to Affect?” [New York Times]. • By no means have I felt happier to know of Betteridge’s Regulation.

Class Warfare

“The Labor Motion Simply Notched Two Huge Wins” [The New Republic]. “One so seldom has the chance to report excellent news about labor unions that when two good issues occur within the area of 24 hours that’s a triumph. The primary is a rebuke to the incoming Trump administration. The second is an unacknowledged favor to it (however, extra importantly, to the nation as effectively). Merchandise One is that the Service Staff Worldwide Union, reversing a foul choice 20 years in the past to disaffiliate with the AFL-CIO, is rejoining the labor federation. Even Andy Stern, who as SEIU president took the union out of the AFL-CIO and sought (ultimately, unsuccessfully) to construct a rival federation referred to as Change to Win with the Teamsters and 5 smaller unions, stated Wednesday that that is ‘an acceptable time to unite SEIU’s energy with different unions.’ The transfer will broaden AFL-CIO membership from practically 13 million to just about 15 million. (Change to Win was a bust. It misplaced most of its associates, stopped calling itself a labor federation, and now operates as one thing referred to as the Strategic Organizing Middle.) Merchandise Two is that the Worldwide Longshoremen’s Affiliation, or ILA, which represents dockworkers on the East Coast and within the Gulf of Mexico, reached a deal on a brand new contract, averting a second dockworker strike. The primary strike, in October, lasted three days earlier than a wage deal was reached beneath heavy strain on administration from the Biden White Home, with additional negotiations postponed till after the presidential election.”

“Scientists mystified by huge buildings discovered deep beneath the Pacific Ocean” [StudyFinds]. “Miles beneath the Pacific Ocean, in a area of Earth’s mantle the place typical knowledge says nothing uncommon ought to exist, scientists have found one thing extraordinary. Utilizing modern expertise to investigate seismic waves, researchers have recognized huge buildings that problem elementary theories about how our planet fashioned and developed. It’s as if we’ve found a brand new geological continent – not on Earth’s floor, however deep inside it.” • R’lyeh?