2:00PM Water Cooler 1/22/2025 | bare capitalism

Date:


Affected person readers, I’m nonetheless making an attempt to get my arms across the Trump Transition, and so for the subsequent day or in order that would be the principal focus right here. After that, I’ll return to our varied pandemics with renewed éclat. –lambert

Brown Thrasher, Rondeau PP–South Level Path East, Chatham-Kent, Ontario, Canada.

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Melania’s now a billionaire too, due to Bitcoin:

Scamalot. (Certainly, if the Democrats had or have been trying to have, an efficient media operation, this joke — certainly justified by the Trump household memecoins — can be all around the intertubes? Or have the tech bros sacralized bitcoin?)

The Lannisters ship their regards:

If this have been a Velázquez, we’d know the dominant determine:


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Seating association:

Refining Scaramucci:

Trump Transition

“Unique: Trump begins new time period with 47% approval; Jan. 6 pardons unpopular, Reuters/Ipsos ballot finds” [Reuters]. • Not that prime, which means all of the extra purpose for the Republican attaque à outrance and Democrat obstruction and, er, resistance (assuming the Democrats even have a coherent technique, which I doubt).

Government Orders (EOs):

“Behind-the-Scenes Aide Narrates Trump’s Day One Government Actions” [RealClearPolitics]. “Again on the White Home, on the night of his second inauguration, President Trump did one thing on the primary day that his predecessor by no means bothered to do in 4 years: He sat and took questions within the Oval Workplace as reporters peppered him with questions. It was the latest set piece within the second season of Trump, and in that second, because the president signed govt order after govt order, an obscure staffer was catapulted to unlikely stardom. Will Scharf, the brand new White Home employees secretary, stood by the president’s facet and earlier than the cameras, asserting the actions simply earlier than Trump put his black Sharpie to paper. Requested Trump, ‘What’s this one?’ Replied the staffer handing him paperwork sure in a black portfolio, ‘Withdrawing from the World Well being Group.’ Mentioned the president, ‘Oh, that’s a giant one.’ On this approach, Scharf served as impromptu grasp of ceremonies for step one within the tried erasure of former President Biden’s legacy.” And: “A stack of these orders, every sure in black leather-based portfolios, had grown right into a small mountain on the Resolute Desk by the top of the night, every a step towards reaching what the president promised can be a ‘golden age of America.’ And in that second, Scharf was the sudden emcee. Quickly the lawyer will recuse his talking position and certain recede from public view. His affect inside the White Home, nonetheless, won’t.” • A well-engineered spectable certainly — particularly since Scharf was solely requested by Trump to do the honors on the final minute (a small perception into why his employees may be loyal to him).

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“Trump govt orders smash leftist pieties that saved America paralyzed’ [Editorial Board, New York Post]. Extra fascinating is the take on the finish: “Trump’s nonetheless giving his interior troll some room to play, renaming Alaska’s Denali Mt. McKinley (because it was referred to as pre-Obama) and the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. However his imaginative and prescient is blessedly forward-looking — to the higher, brighter vistas that Biden and his social gathering refuse to see. That willful blindness value them the election. America, in love with the long run as at all times, is true there with Trump.” • The polling says that “America” isn’t. So we’ll see.

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“Trump administration directs all federal variety, fairness and inclusion employees be placed on depart” [Associated Press]. ” President Donald Trump’s administration has moved to finish affirmative motion in federal contracting and directed that every one federal variety, fairness and inclusion employees be placed on paid depart and finally be laid off…. The chief order on affirmative motion revokes an order issued by President Lyndon Johnson, and curtails DEI applications by federal contractors and grant recipients. It’s utilizing one of many key instruments utilized by the Biden administration to advertise DEI applications throughout the non-public sector — pushing their use by federal contractors — to now eradicate them…. [F]ederal staff are being requested to report back to Trump’s Workplace of Personnel Administration if they believe any DEI-related program has been renamed to obfuscate its function inside 10 days or face ‘antagonistic penalties.’” That stated, there are implementation points: ‘Regardless of the sweeping language of Trump’s order, [Noreen Farrell, executive director of gender rights group Equal Rights Advocates] stated, ‘the fact of implementing such large structural modifications is way extra complicated.’ ‘Federal companies have deeply embedded insurance policies and procedures that may’t merely be switched off in a single day,’ she added.” • That’s a whole lot of PMC, particularly in Northern Virginia and Maryland, instantly unsure of their employment prospects.

“Donald Trump’s Medicare Government Order Defined” [Newsweek]. “The potential affect of rescinding govt order 14087 is as follows: 1. Halted growth of cost-reduction fashions: The directive for the Division of Well being and Human Companies to develop and check new fashions geared toward decreasing drug prices by means of the Heart for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation has been withdrawn. This transfer may sluggish or halt progress on initiatives that have been designed to make prescription medicines extra inexpensive. 2. Potential improve in out-of-pocket bills: With out the implementation of latest fashions centered on lowering prices, Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries would possibly proceed to face excessive out-of-pocket bills for pharmaceuticals, presumably affecting entry to sure medicines. 3. Uncertainty in future drug pricing insurance policies: The rescission creates uncertainty relating to the federal authorities’s strategy to addressing prescription drug prices, which may depart beneficiaries not sure about future measures to regulate or scale back bills.” However as typical implementation: “Whereas the chief order has been rescinded, current legal guidelines and laws governing prescription drug pricing and Medicare and Medicaid insurance policies stay in impact. Nevertheless, the measures from the earlier administration that they are saying was designed to avoid wasting on prices has now been disrupted.”

“A Trump Government Order May Finish The Authorities-Censorship Complicated” [The Federalist]. “Trump’s govt order — only one in a slough of Inauguration Day measures — seeks to implement the First Modification, ‘important to the success of our Republic.’” However as soon as once more implementation: “It’s unclear what steps the Trump administration will take, pursuant to this order, to analyze or shut down companies or partnerships that represent the government-censorship complicated.”

“Trump’s blanket Jan. 6 pardons stun Republicans on Capitol Hill” [The Hill]. “President Trump’s sweeping pardons of greater than 1,500 folks charged with crimes associated to the Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021, together with people who assaulted law enforcement officials, shocked Republican lawmakers who witnessed firsthand the chaos on Capitol Hill 4 years in the past. Trump’s motion, which defied assurances from his allies that he would look at convictions on a case-by-case foundation and never grant clemency to individuals who dedicated violence, divided GOP senators and overshadowed speak about his first-100-days agenda. GOP lawmakers are largely prepared to miss the lots of of people that entered the Capitol illegally 4 years in the past, which disrupted the certification of former President Biden’s victory by a number of hours, however pardoning individuals who assaulted Capitol Police, inflicting dozens of accidents, was exhausting to swallow. ‘It’s flawed to pardon people convicted of violent crime, particularly when lots of the victims of their violence have been regulation enforcement officers,’ Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) stated in an announcement. Moran was expressing a view shared by a lot of his Senate GOP colleagues, though a lot of them are reluctant to criticize Trump publicly.”

“22 states sue to cease Trump’s order blocking birthright citizenship” [Associated Press]. “Attorneys common from 22 states sued Tuesday to dam President Donald Trump’s transfer to finish a century-old immigration follow referred to as birthright citizenship guaranteeing that U.S.-born kids are residents no matter their mother and father’ standing. Trump’s roughly 700-word govt order, issued late Monday, quantities to a success of one thing he’s talked about through the presidential marketing campaign. However whether or not it succeeds is way from sure amid what’s prone to be a prolonged authorized battle over the president’s immigration insurance policies and a constitutional proper to citizenship. The Democratic attorneys common and immigrant rights advocates say the query of birthright citizenship is settled regulation and that whereas presidents have broad authority, they don’t seem to be kings.” And: “Ratified in 1868 in within the aftermath of the Civil Conflict, the 14th Modification says: ‘All individuals born or naturalized in america and topic to the jurisdiction thereof, are residents of america and of the State whereby they reside.’” • A strict constructionist studying the Fourteenth Modification would certainly assist the Democrats.

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“How Trump Is Pushing at Limits of Presidential Energy in Early Orders” [Charlie Savage, New York Times]. “On Monday, as Mr. Trump took the oath of workplace to start his second time period, he asserted a muscular imaginative and prescient of presidential energy. He not solely revived a number of the identical expansive understandings of govt authority that have been left unaddressed, however went even additional with new claims of sweeping and inherent constitutional clout. Amongst a blizzard of govt orders, Mr. Trump instructed prosecutors to not implement a regulation that bans the favored social media app TikTok till its Chinese language proprietor sells it. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. had signed the measure into regulation after it handed with broad bipartisan assist, and the Supreme Court docket unanimously upheld it. Regardless of the regulation’s deserves, the Structure says presidents ‘shall take care that the legal guidelines be faithfully executed.’ Mr. Trump supplied no clear clarification for a way he has any legit energy to as an alternative droop the regulation, making solely a imprecise gesture towards his ‘constitutional duty’ for nationwide safety, international coverage ‘and different important govt features.’” And a number of other of the EOs (border safety; vitality) rely upon invoking Presidential emergency powers. “However details matter little as to whether or when it’s authorized for presidents to invoke emergency energy, declarations which are ruled by the Nationwide Emergencies Act of 1976. That regulation doesn’t tightly outline the circumstances underneath which presidents could decide that an emergency exists, leaving them with primarily unfettered discretion to unlock exigent powers for themselves. However earlier presidents adhered to norms of self-restraint.” • The Norms Fairy sheds one other tear.

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AI:

“Trump publicizes private-sector $500 billion funding in AI infrastructure” [Reuters]. “U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday introduced a non-public sector funding of as much as $500 billion to fund infrastructure for synthetic intelligence, aiming to outpace rival nations within the business-critical know-how. Trump stated that ChatGPT’s creator OpenAI, SoftBank (9984.T), opens new tab and Oracle (ORCL.N), opens new tab are planning a three way partnership referred to as Stargate, which he stated will construct knowledge facilities and create greater than 100,000 jobs in america. These firms, together with different fairness backers of Stargate, have dedicated $100 billion for speedy deployment, with the remaining funding anticipated to happen over the subsequent 4 years. SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison joined Trump on the White Home for the launch. The primary of the mission’s knowledge facilities are already underneath building in Texas, Ellison stated on the press convention. Twenty will likely be constructed, half 1,000,000 sq. ft every, he stated. The mission may energy AI that analyzes digital well being data and helps medical doctors care for his or her sufferers, Ellison stated.

• That will likely be superior; we’ll be capable to have AI-powered upcoding then, or wherever the return is best (i.e., wherever fraud and rental extraction is maximized). Commentary:

“Trump highlights partnership investing $500 billion in AI” [Associated Press]. “Nonetheless, the regulatory outlook for AI stays considerably unsure as Trump on Monday overturned the 2023 order signed by then-President Joe Biden to create security requirements and watermarking of AI-generated content material, amongst different targets, in hopes of placing guardrails on the know-how’s potential dangers to nationwide safety and financial well-being.” • Implementation once more.

“OpenAI Stargate is a $500B wager: America’s AI Manhattan Undertaking or expensive useless finish?” [VentureBeat]. • With the Manhattan Undertaking, we had Albert Einstein’s blessing and the crème de la crème of European science. With Stargate, we’ve received Sam Altman (and probably SBF, if he weren’t in jail).

“Moderna spikes as Oracle’s Larry Ellison touts AI-driven mRNA vaccines” [Seeking Alpha]. “At a press convention convened on the White Home to announce the launch of Stargate, a $500B AI initiative, Ellison stated that synthetic intelligence might be used to develop personalised mRNA-based most cancers vaccines and early tumor detection.” • Presumably remedies, not vaccines, and rented on a subscription foundation…. Commentary:


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Elon:

“The Maga motion is out to get Elon Musk – and so is China” [Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph]. MAGA over H1B (rightly). “If it have been potential to brief a public determine with most leverage, Elon Musk would certainly be the highest goal. The political and enterprise worth of “Musk Inc” is constructed on treacherous ideological sands…. Tesla has suffered its first yr of falling automotive gross sales worldwide. It’s working into ferocious competitors on worth and high quality in China and is quickly shedding German market share in electrical autos (EV) to BMW and Mercedes…. The driving rationale for the parabolic spike within the share worth since Donald Trump’s election is the assumption that Musk will take pleasure in techno-regulatory privilege and crony capitalist favour. The Tesla chief was nonetheless in adequate grace to earn a spot with the Trump household on the inauguration… His privilege is recompense for spending 1 / 4 of $1bn serving to Trump over the road in swing states – whether or not by fostering free speech or by exploiting the black arts of algorithmic propaganda, is dependent upon your angle of view.” However: “The issue with the market’s political wager on Tesla is that Musk has already made himself arch-enemy of the Maga priesthood, who more and more regard him as a globalist carpet-bagger. They assume he’s making an attempt to subvert the ethno-cultural revival of the American nation state, spreading cash round to seize the Trump motion for his personal functions.” And: “Musk has manoeuvred himself into an invidious place, caught between the Chinese language Communist Social gathering and the Maga motion and reliant on the fickle favour of a risky American president. These Icarus wings of beeswax and feathers have flown too near the solar.” • Bannon didn’t plant this, since he’s quoted within the article. I ponder if anybody else did?

“Elon Musk’s salute falls flat: Why far-right trolling isn’t working this time round” [Amanda Marcotte, Salon]. “Most individuals, in the event that they made this gesture innocently, can be upset concerning the neo-Nazis making an attempt to assert widespread trigger with them. As Ed Kilgore argued at New York Tuesday, ‘there may be a straightforward strategy to clear this up, notably for somebody who owns a significant social-media platform and makes use of it fairly often.’ All Musk must do is ‘make the gesture of denouncing fascism aggressively.’ He provides that explicitly rejecting fascism and white nationalism ‘ought to be value just a few dozen tweets, wouldn’t you say?’”

“Dimon says he and Musk have ‘hugged it out’” [The Hill]. “JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated Wednesday that he and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have “hugged it out” and resolved their variations, after Dimon’s financial institution sued the tech billionaire’s electrical automobile agency in 2021…. JPMorgan Chase sued Tesla in 2021, demanding $162 million from Musk’s agency as a part of a inventory warrant deal. The dispute centered on a 2018 tweet from the Tesla CEO, suggesting he would possibly take the corporate non-public, and the following modifications in Tesla’s worth. The tweet additionally prompted a lawsuit from the Securities and Change Fee (SEC) that Musk and Tesla every paid $20 million to resolve in 2018. JPMorgan dropped the lawsuit in opposition to Telsa final month after the 2 firms reached a settlement…. Dimon stated Wednesday he wished Musk and DOGE one of the best as they embark on their cost-cutting efforts. ‘I believe it’s utterly rational for somebody to have a look at our authorities and say it’s been ineffective,’ Dimon informed CNBC.”

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The Wizard of Kalorama™

Unfaithful:

“I stand between you and the pitchforks” (of bankers) and “look ahead and never again” (to torturers).

Democrats en déshabillé

Perhaps we should always shut down the DNC till we discover out what’s happening:

“Home Democrats privately squirm about their management and message” [Punchbowl News]. “The issue for Democrats is two-fold. Trump’s hardline strategy to immigration is common, together with deporting migrants, though Individuals are nonetheless queasy in terms of large-scale efforts that contain a heavy-handed authorities strategy. Secondly, with Biden and Kamala Harris now not in energy, Democrats lack a pacesetter. Members are asking themselves whether or not it’s former President Barack Obama, a Democratic governor, Jeffries, Harris or another person…. Home Democratic leaders opted to not whip in opposition to the Laken Riley Act, which ended up getting 48 Democratic votes. A revised Senate model will come again up for a remaining Home vote at present earlier than it heads to Trump’s desk. Some Democrats want Jeffries had taken a harder stance in opposition to the invoice, which permits ICE to take custody of migrants accused of sure crimes. However Jeffries probably would have gotten flack from Frontliners if he’d pressured members to vote no. In one of many first Democratic caucus conferences after the bruising November election, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), who represents a aggressive district alongside the southern border, warned Democratic leaders to not inform him find out how to vote, in keeping with a supply acquainted with the interplay. Thus far, Jeffries appears to be strolling a really cautious line. He’s made clear to members that they want to have the ability to vote their districts. But Jeffries can also be counseling them to not take the Republican bait. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who has been very outspoken on this subject, says Home Democrats have to take the lead for the social gathering since they’ve one of the best likelihood of successful again energy in 2026. That places Jeffries within the highlight. ‘That is the place the motion is. That is the place the margin is tightest. That is the place we’re inside hanging distance of successful the bulk again,’ Ocasio-Cortez stated. ‘That might imply our chief and our management right here.’” • I’m so previous I keep in mind when Sanders gained the Hispanic counties alongside the Rio Grande. Talking of so-called “frontliners.”

“Why Are Democrats Becoming a member of Republicans and Voting for the Anti-Immigrant Laken Riley Act?” [Newsweek]. “It’s no shock that Republicans supported this measure, because it goals to crack down on migrant crime. What’s mystifying is why some Democrats received behind this invoice handy Trump a victory on his signature subject. The Laken Riley Act is legally, logistically, and constitutionally unsound—and misguided Democrats helped make it occur. The Laken Riley Act requires the Division of Homeland Safety to jail undocumented immigrants accused of housebreaking and theft, placing them on observe for deportation. The important thing phrase right here is accused. Underneath the measure’s provisions, folks charged with minor crimes might be locked up with out bail earlier than they’re convicted, even when fees in opposition to them are dropped. This flies within the face of the presumption of innocence, and violates due course of, which the Supreme Court docket has dominated applies to undocumented immigrants…. Worse, the Laken Riley Act permits state attorneys common to sue the federal government over every part from particular person immigration enforcement selections to immigration insurance policies. Why would 48 Home Democrats, together with 12 senators like Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), and Mark Warner (D-Va.) assist this measure? As a result of political survival appears to be extra necessary to them than authorized and civil rights. Reeling from Trump’s presidential victory, these Democrats need to present that they are often powerful on unlawful immigration. How disappointing that they embraced a invoice predicated on the unfounded hyperlink between migrants and criminality. It’s this form of political cowardice that leads progressives to really feel discouraged by their very own social gathering.”• Oh, I’m approach past “discouraged.”

The beatings will proceed till the canine eat the pet food:

And why is the dude within the center wearning slippers and what appears like pajamas?

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Airborne Transmission

“Aerosol analysis reveals how simply COVID-19 might be caught by means of the air” [Medical Xpress]. A 2023 research, linked to right here. However: “For the reason that starting of the pandemic, there have been discussions about how COVID-19 infections unfold. Jakob Löndahl, professor in aerosol know-how and a colleague of Alsved, was a type of who received concerned with the ‘new virus’ early on. He paused his analysis on norovirus to analyze whether or not the an infection from the then unknown virus was airborne. A lot new information about airborne transmission has emerged because the pandemic, and researchers now need to see if it may be utilized to infectious ailments aside from COVID-19. ‘The work on COVID-19 has raised many new questions. Do viral aerosols from different respiratory infections reminiscent of rhinoviruses, influenza and RSV unfold in the identical approach as viruses from COVID-19? When is the danger of an infection highest? How efficient are our varied protecting measures? There are lots of questions we’re engaged on now,’ concludes Löndahl.” • Certainly! And one would possibly point out H5N1 as properly.

Remedy: Covid

“Azvudine beats paxlovid in lowering COVID-19 deaths” [News-Medical]. “The current multicenter, retrospective cohort research was carried out in Henan and Xinjiang provinces, China, involving hospitalized sufferers with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 an infection between December 5, 2022, and January 31, 2023. The research inhabitants included 37,606 sufferers from ten hospitals in Henan and three,270 sufferers from one hospital in Xinjiang…. The first consequence was all-cause dying, with 469 deaths noticed: 288 within the azvudine group and 181 within the Paxlovid group. Kaplan–Meier evaluation confirmed a considerably decrease threat of dying within the azvudine group in contrast with Paxlovid (p = 0.038). Multivariable Cox regression evaluation confirmed this, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.676-0.987, p = 0.036). Composite illness development occurred in 681 sufferers: 446 within the azvudine group and 235 within the Paxlovid group…. Sensitivity analyses supported the accuracy of those findings. Outcomes remained constant throughout a number of strategies of dealing with lacking knowledge, different matching fashions, and the exclusion of early discharges or deaths.”

Elite Maleficence

[sigh]

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TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

Lambert right here: I don’t like a whole lot of this week’s charts. In wastewater, too many pink dots concentrated within the Midwest and the Atlantic coast, so I began circling areas in pink, once more. New York’s weirdly persistent increased hospitalization price continues. Traveler positivity is up, and worse, the dominant traveler variants are JN* and KP*, which, whereas current within the nationwide variants, are very low. And within the two dying charts, the projected deaths appear to have leveled out, when prior to now they decreased. Nothing earth-shattering, but it surely does make me queasy, and it’s properly after the vacation bump.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC January 10 Final week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):

Variants [3] CDC January 18 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC January 11

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, knowledge January 16: Nationwide [6] CDC Janurary 16:

Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens January 13: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4:

Vacationers Knowledge
Positivity[9] CDC December 30: Variants[10] CDC December 30

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 11: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 11:

LEGEND

1) for charts new at present; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing extra pink and extra orange, however nothing new at main hubs.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has finished an ideal job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) A bit uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Undoubtedly jumped.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward pattern since, properly, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of curiosity at present.

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Bespoke Tailoring:

Manufacturing: “Boeing wants one other regulatory exemption previous to 737 Max 7 and 10 certification” [FlightGlobal]. “Boeing is searching for short-term regulatory exemptions for a stall-management yaw damper (SMYD) system on the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, saying a classification change left it unable to display that the system meets ‘elevated regulatory expectations.’ The corporate on 17 January requested the exemptions from the Federal Aviation Administration. It wants the approvals to realize certification of each long-delayed varieties and to roll out an angle-of-attack (AOA) system replace deliberate for all Max fashions, says Boeing’s request, launched by the US authorities on 21 January… The plane producer has traditionally certificated SMYDs to ‘Stage B’ requirements underneath aircraft-software steerage revealed by the Radio Technical Fee for Aeronautics. Stage B applies to software program for which failures are ‘hazardous’, in keeping with on-line sources. ‘, up to date evaluation led Boeing and the FAA to find out that the SMYD ought to now be licensed to Design Assurance Stage A,’ Boeing’s exemption request says. Stage A programs are thought-about these for which failure could also be ‘catastrophic’. As a result of the Max 7’s and Max 10’s SMYD has “not been proven to satisfy” Stage A requirements, “extra certification exercise will likely be wanted”, Boeing says. It has requested the exemption be legitimate by means of end-October 2028. Between from time to time, Boeing intends to ‘full the certification actions essential to indicate compliance’, it says. “This era additionally gives the time wanted to retrofit airplanes delivered underneath this exemption, as a way to deliver them into compliance.’” • So when precisely was the necessity to improve to Stage A identified, and the way lengthy was Boeing administration sitting on it?

Tech: “Instagram hides search outcomes for ‘Democrats’” [BBC]. “Whereas customers who kind ‘#Democrat’ or ‘#Democrats’ see no outcomes, the hashtag ‘Republican’ returns 3.3 million posts on the social media platform. By manually looking Instagram for ‘Democrats’, slightly than clicking on a hashtag, customers are greeted by a display screen studying ‘we’ve hidden these outcomes.’ ‘Outcomes for the time period you looked for could include delicate content material,’ it says. There are additionally restricted outcomes when folks seek for ‘Republicans’ versus ‘Republican.’” • Even when that is an accident, the technical functionality remains to be fairly horrifying.

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At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 45 Impartial (earlier shut: 40 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 31 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 22 at 1:34:17 PM ET.

Musical Interlude

Goodbye to Garth Hudson:

Hudson sax solo on the finish:

Gallery

Picasso as Alma-Tadema:

The Present Cinema

“‘The Brutalist’ Sparks Backlash After Editor Reveals Use of AI in Dialogue and Buildings, however Says It’s ‘Nothing That Hasn’t Been Achieved Earlier than’” [Variety]. “In an interview with tech journal Crimson Shark Information, editor Dávid Jancsó revealed that AI instruments from Respeecher — a Ukrainian software program firm — had been deployed as a way to improved the authenticity of the Hungarian dialogue of stars Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones. Brody and Jones recorded their voices into the AI software program, whereas Jancsó stated he additionally fed in his voice to ‘finesse the tough dialect.’ ‘Most of their Hungarian dialogue has part of me speaking in there,’ he added. ‘We have been very cautious about holding their performances. It’s primarily simply changing letters right here and there.’ Jancsó additionally revealed that generative AI was used within the remaining sequence of ‘The Brutalist’ to create a ‘sequence of architectural drawings and completed buildings’ within the type of Brody’s character, László Tóth.” • And so it begins.

Information of the Wired

“My wrestle with doom scrolling” [All That Jazz]. Helpful tip: “Doing this helped me break some previous habits I’ve fashioned through the years with a browser I’m used to. For instance, the Google ecosystem knew me too properly and continually advisable articles to me to click on on. A brand new browser with out this historic knowledge helped me to concentrate on the duty at hand as an alternative of getting distracted by the shiny, new, however ineffective data on-line.” • Additionally, Google’s suggestion engine by definition eliminates serendipity, making you stupider (for revenue, too).

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are positive! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From MB:

MB writes: “Tight Hole, close to the Crimson River Gorge, KY. Rolleicord, f/22, Panatomic X, Microdol X 1:3, Agfa Brovira, Selenium toner. I dug deep for this one. Digital {photograph} of {a photograph}. Cheers!”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism website. Should you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I’ve had a correspondent characterize my views as reasonable cynical. Let me briefly clarify them. I imagine in common applications that present concrete materials advantages, particularly to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime instance, however tuition-free school and a Submit Workplace Financial institution additionally fall underneath this heading. So do a Jobs Assure and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can ship on such applications, as a result of the 2 are totally different flavors of neoliberalism (“As a result of markets”). I don’t a lot care concerning the “ism” that delivers the advantages, though whichever one does need to put widespread humanity first, versus markets. Might be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t a lot care, so long as the advantages are delivered.

To me, the important thing subject — and because of this Medicare for All is at all times first with me — is the tens of 1000’s of extra “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton research, and different current research. That big physique depend makes Medicare for All, on the very least, an ethical and strategic crucial. And that degree of struggling and natural harm makes the considerations of id politics — even the worthy battle to assist the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — vivid shiny objects by comparability. Therefore my frustration with the information move — presently in my opinion the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the opposite by out-of-power liberals and their allies within the State and within the press — a information move that continually forces me to concentrate on issues that I regard as of secondary significance to the surplus deaths. What sort of political economic system is it that halts and even reverses the will increase in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I’m additionally very hopeful that the persevering with destruction of each social gathering institutions will open the house for voices supporting applications much like these I’ve listed; let’s name such voices “the left.” Volatility creates alternative, particularly if the Democrat institution, which places markets first and opposes all such applications, isn’t allowed to get again into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I really like the tactical degree, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been running a blog about it day by day for fourteen years, however every part I write has this angle behind it.













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