2:00PM Water Cooler 1/8/2025 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Music of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Powhatan State Park, Powhatan, Virginia, United States. “This chicken was singing from the identical perch at 7:00 after I arrived; this recording was made at 10:00. It was nonetheless singing after I left.”

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

1. LA Palisades Hearth: That is nice.
2. Trump’s pivot to the Northern Hemisphere.
3. Extra weirdness with the Vegas Tesla explosion.

Search for the Helpers

After which I paid it ahead as effectively. Readers?

My electronic mail handle is down by the plant; please ship examples of there (“Helpers” within the topic line). In our more and more determined and fragile neoliberal society, on a regular basis regular incidents and tales of “the communism of on a regular basis life” are what I’m searching for (and never, say, the Pink Cross in Hawaii, and even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Transition

“Trump Imagines New Sphere of U.S. Affect Stretching From Panama to Greenland” [Wall Street Journal]. Trump’s presser: “President-elect Donald Trump’s calls to take management of Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal replicate his fascination with a Twenty first-century model of an outdated concept—that nice powers ought to carve out spheres of affect and defend their financial and safety pursuits by imposing their will on smaller neighbors. In a press convention Tuesday, Trump outlined a second-term overseas coverage agenda that rests not on world alliances and free commerce however on financial coercion and unilateral army would possibly, even in opposition to allies. With the Panama Canal and Greenland, he instructed he might use power to take them over. With Canada, he instructed he would hit the U.S.’s northern neighbor with excessive tariffs, leaving it no alternative however to undergo annexation. ‘Canada and the USA, that might actually be one thing,’ Trump mentioned. ‘You do away with that artificially drawn line and also you check out what that appears like and it might even be a lot better for nationwide safety.’ Taking management of Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal by way of army or financial power could be a dramatic departure from a long time of U.S. overseas coverage as pursued by presidents of each events.” • This leaves out Mexico, oddly. I’ll have extra in a bit, however at first look, I’d speculate that Trump is aware of he’s received to feed his rabid canine — the nationwide safety institution — some meat. In any other case, he will probably be its meat. The place is the meat to be discovered? Europe? Clearly not; Ukraine is misplaced. The Center East? Letting them kill one another is one factor; boots on the bottom are one other. The pivot to Asia? With what? That leaves — and this could make James Monroe very completely happy — the north American hemisphere. Additionally, it might even be that Trump doesn’t wish to get folks killed, and (modulo Mexico), seizing one vassal’s territory (Greenland), invading Panama (we’ve achieved it as soon as), and dealing on splitting the Canadian Federation appears lots much less ugly than a battle on the Pacific Rim, say. Who is aware of? Might be only a headfake, although Trump did point out Greenland in 2020. Commentary:

In case you wished to destroy NATO, probably the most profitable alliance in human historical past , threatening to invade 2 of your allies could be a great way to begin.

— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) January 8, 2025

[TRUMP, thinking]: “McFaul says “destroy NATO like that’s a nasty factor. They don’t pay their payments, do they?”]

“To Keep away from Combating Massive Conflicts Trump Is Creating Smaller Ones” [Moon of Alabama]. Trump’s presser: “Trump has thereby rejected the three potential conflicts, with Russia, China and Iran, that had been lengthy main the headlines. He possible perceives that there’s nothing to win in these. However as he has to offer some fodder for the media in addition to for his MAGA followers he’s as an alternative arising with new conflicts which could even turn into winnable.” See above; I agree that the media and MAGA want “fodder,” however I feel the nationwide safety institution — The Blob — wants “fodder” most of all. Extra: “It reminds of Ronald Reagan who created minor conflicts, like in Grenada, to be free to make offers with the Soviet ‘evil empire’ Union…. Trump needs to keep away from the bigger potential conflicts as they’re too tough to handle and win. He’s as an alternative creating his personal small conflicts proper subsequent to the U.S. yard. It’s a good trick and it might even see some success.” • I don’t love Trump, and I didn’t like Reagan both. However at the very least Reagan didn’t get right into a proxy battle with a nuclear energy.

Useful map:

Welcome to The Gulf Of America 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/FVLo03SHJL

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) January 7, 2025

To be truthful, neither I nor b give an account of the place an invasion of Mexico suits into this image (see Nick’s helpful submit right here). Right here, I’d speculate that Trump has to “large stick” somephysique for credibility’s sake, and Mexican Drug Lords are an unsympathetic goal. A correct invasion of Mexico would appear to be the Philippine-American Struggle of 1898. Or Vietnam. Little doubt there are many Blobbists who would get pleasure from that, however I don’t suppose Trump must throw them meat…

“Fetterman compares Trump’s Greenland speak to Louisiana Buy” [The Hill]. “‘There’s a number of discuss Greenland, for instance, and … there’s a number of freak-outs and naturally, I’d by no means help taking it by power,’ Fetterman mentioned. He continued, noting it might be a ‘accountable dialog’ to debate acquisition, together with ‘simply shopping for it out.’ ‘If anybody thinks that’s bonkers, it’s like, effectively, bear in mind the Louisiana Buy?’ Fetterman mentioned.” • Is he incorrect?

The tech bro angle:

2/ This can be a reply to Dryden’s submit (above). Observe Dryden’s response. pic.twitter.com/0Fo5P8J9Mq

— JennyCohn ✍🏻 📢 (@jennycohn1) January 8, 2025

* * *

O Canada! I shouldn’t actually submit this…

pic.twitter.com/FJ8KeGRhFA

— Jared (@Nsfwacct739014) January 7, 2025

… however body 4 made me snort out loud (although is there some native shade I ought to concentrate on right here? Canadian readers?)

* * *

“Donald Trump shares video of Jeffrey Sachs accusing Benjamin Netanyahu of warmongering” [JFeed]. Actually not on my Bingo card! And: “Trump’s resolution to submit this video, assuming he listening to the video fairly than simply studying the textual content, which makes no point out of Netanyahu, factors to some presumably critical tensions between Israel and the incoming administration relating to whether or not or to not use army power in opposition to Iran for worry it might result in a common battle.” • Or perhaps it’s easier. Maybe “By no means sh*t a sh*tter” is a motto Trump is aware of and believes. Anyhow, right here’s Trump’s submit from Fact Social:

Trump simply reposted a video explaining that the wars in Iraq and Syria had been manufactured by Netanyahu and had nothing to do with democracy.
“Netanyahu continues to be making an attempt to get us to combat Iran to today. He’s a deep darkish son of a bitch as a result of he is gotten us into countless wars” pic.twitter.com/VfiI2UPD8p

— Talha Ahmad (@talhaahmad967) January 8, 2025

Haaretz, although later, has the higher headline–

“‘A Deep, Darkish Son of a Bitch’: Trump Posts Video of Historian Criticizing Netanyahu” [Haaretz]. ” U.S. President-elect Donald Trump shared a video of contentious economics professor Jeffrey Sachs describing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “a deep, darkish son of a bitch” chargeable for orchestrating U.S. overseas coverage within the Center East. Trump’s sharing of the video on Fact Social highlights the President-elect’s questionable sources of data on coverage issues and his position in amplifying contentious historic interpretations through his unprecedented platform.” • What an idiotic remark by Haaretz, throwing Jeffrey Sachs into the “questionable sources of data” bucket, code for anti-semitic, although Haaretz depart it to others to unpack the code: “Sachs, an outspoken critic of the Israeli authorities, just lately earned criticism from senior Israeli officers like Diaspora Affairs Minister, Amichai Chikli, following his look on the Tucker Carlson Present. Chikli implied that Sachs was a part of a visitor roster together with ‘fringe Holocaust deniers, conspiracy theorists, and blood libel lovers who oppose the State of Israel.’” Chikli is an actual piece of labor.

Lawfare

“Justice Division says it plans to launch solely a part of particular counsel’s Trump report for now” [Associated Press]. “The Justice Division mentioned Wednesday that it intends to launch particular counsel Jack Smith’s findings on Donald Trump’s efforts to undo the outcomes of the 2020 presidential election however will preserve underneath wraps for now the remainder of the report centered on the president-elect’s hoarding of categorised paperwork at his Mar-a-Lago property… The announcement lessens the probability that the report on the categorised paperwork investigation, which of all inquiries in opposition to Trump had as soon as appeared to hold the best authorized risk, would ever be launched on condition that the Trump Justice Division virtually definitely is not going to make the doc public even after the case in opposition to Nauta and De Oliveira is resolved.” And the norms: “Smith’s group deserted each instances in November after Trump’s presidential victory, citing Justice Division coverage that prohibits the federal prosecutions of sitting presidents. Justice Division rules name for particular counsels appointed by the lawyer common to submit a confidential report on the conclusion of their investigations. It’s then as much as the lawyer common to resolve what to make public.”

Democrats en déshabillé

Another reason to hate the Democrats:

It is more and more tough to say that the Democratic Celebration is merely incompetent and never actively malevolent. pic.twitter.com/0G4YvkNfN1

— Holding Dems Accountable (From the Left!) (@PushBidenLeft) January 7, 2025

Khanna is incorrect, absurdly incorrect. That is in no sense an “unforced error” by Democrats (who, as Thomas Frank reminds us in Pay attention, Liberal!, hate the working class). As an alternative, it’s elegant and profitable maneuvering to evade accountability, fairly like ObamaCare writ small. Sirota feedback:

So…Kamala Harris coulda damaged the tie on the NLRB vote, however she wasn’t there to solid the vote, and her brother-in-law is the chief counsel of Uber, which has tangled with the NLRB. https://t.co/CwYJlnedeo

— David Sirota (@davidsirota) January 8, 2025

Realignment and Legitimacy

About Shawn Ryan, the “whistleblower” who launched Livelsberger’s electronic mail manifesto:

Shot:

The one fraud right here is you @SebGorka
FBI has confirmed the e-mail despatched to my podcast was from Matthew Livelsberger.

Women and Gentleman I current you along with your new “Director of Counter Terrorism” who appears to lack discernment. https://t.co/LIdmcEfOgn pic.twitter.com/96AiIcjnes

— Shawn Ryan (@ShawnRyan762) January 7, 2025

Chaser:

Shawn Ryan is a cia contractor pic.twitter.com/ByGonJ05Yd

— Dr.Ahmed A.,MD,ABPsych (@Ah_Magus) January 8, 2025

Saying “the FBI confirmed…” is lots like saying “A Ukrainian spokesman confirmed….”

* * *

“Nation’s anger at insurance coverage ‘injustice’” [China Daily]. “[Rosemary:] “‘My era has mentioned about not simply what violence appears like when any individual comes up at you with a gun and shoots you, however extra about financial violence. In case you’re dying by the hands of any individual else in line with an organization coverage, that doesn’t make it any much less violent,’ she mentioned.” • Apparently, I can’t discover the “Rosemary” quote wherever.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing extra purple and extra orange, however nothing new at main hubs.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has achieved an amazing job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) Somewhat uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Positively jumped.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward development since, effectively, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment state of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Preliminary jobless claims within the US decreased by 10,000 from the earlier week to 201,000 within the week ending January 4, the bottom in eleven months and contrasting with the anticipated enhance to 218,000.”

Car Gross sales: “United States Complete Car Gross sales” [Trading Economics]. “Complete Car Gross sales in the USA elevated to 16.80 Million in December from 16.65 Million in November of 2024.”

Manufacturing: “Checks discover no points with Boeing 737-800 jets in S’pore after deadly Jeju Air crash” [Straits Times]. “Checks by the Singapore authorities within the wake of the lethal Jeju Air crash in December have discovered no anomalies or reliability points within the fleet of Boeing 737-800 plane right here, mentioned Transport Minister Chee Hong Tat on Jan 8. This is similar plane mannequin because the airplane that smashed right into a concrete construction housing navigational tools on the finish of a runway at Muan Worldwide Airport in South Korea, on Dec 29, 2024, killing 179 folks on board.”

Manufacturing: “Problematic elements found in a number of Boeing passenger planes” [KING5]. “On Wednesday, inner Boeing sources informed KING 5 there was a slowdown in Renton’s 737-MAX meeting line due to faulty electrical junction containers. Govt Director of Boeing’s engineering union Ray Goforth confirmed in a press release that there was an issue with the junction containers and it slowed or stopped manufacturing. Nonetheless, he was unaware of how vital the slowdown was. The MAX passenger airplane has miles {of electrical} wiring and whereas it’s unclear which junction field is impacted, Aviation Professional John Nance mentioned fixing the issue is crucial. ‘If it’s a generic state of affairs with quite a few these containers being discovered to be lower than they need to then it needs to be addressed, there’s no query about it,’ mentioned Nance. Boeing describes the objects as non-conforming elements and mentioned regardless of this downside, manufacturing continues within the Renton manufacturing facility.”

Tech: “The AI hype bubble is the brand new crypto hype bubble” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “As [Emily M Bender, a computational linguistics specialist at UW] says, we’ve made ‘machines that may mindlessly generate textual content, however we haven’t realized the best way to cease imagining the thoughts behind it.’ One potential tonic in opposition to this fallacy is to observe an Italian MP’s suggestion and exchange ‘AI’ with ‘SALAMI’ (‘Systematic Approaches to Studying Algorithms and Machine Inferences’). It’s lots simpler to maintain a transparent head when somebody asks you, ‘Is that this SALAMI clever? Can this SALAMI write a novel? Does this SALAMI deserve human rights?’ Bender’s most well-known contribution is the ‘stochastic parrot,’ a assemble that ‘simply probabilistically spits out phrases.’ AI bros like Altman love the stochastic parrot, and are hellbent on lowering human beings to stochastic parrots, which can enable them to declare that their chatbots have feature-parity with human beings. On the identical time, Altman and Co are surprisingly afraid of their creations. It’s potential that that is only a shuck: ‘I’ve made one thing so highly effective that it might destroy humanity! Fortunately, I’m a clever steward of this factor, so it’s nice. However boy, it certain is highly effective!’” • That is lengthy, and enjoyable, and value a learn, however I don’t suppose it lives as much as the headline.

Little doubt the Democrats will discover a option to bury her.

Tech: Enshittification proceeds apace:

Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 33 Worry (earlier shut: 35 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 27 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed).

Gallery

I’m wondering why the entrance web page doesn’t have the look of print:

On occasion I buy a (paper) Monetary Occasions and luxuriate in studying it. The expertise is much, far superior to something on-line, and the structure of the pages — one thing we’ve had centuries of expertise doing, in any case — strikes the attention to serendipitous encounters in a manner that the net doesn’t.

Zeitgeist Watch

Yikes (2):

If the hearth makes it down off the mountain:

Not a parking zone:

My first thought is that individuals took their automotive keys with them, so their automobiles couldn’t be moved, therefore the bulldozer; however perhaps there aren’t any automotive keys anymore, simply plastic fobs that might soften within the warmth. Readers? (Exhibits you ways a lot I drive, or am pushed.)

The sharing financial system does its half:

Class warfare:

Blast from the previous:

Simply in case anyone thinks Democrats don’t hate the working class.

Class Warfare

“Ski patrollers attain deal to finish strike at Utah’s Park Metropolis Mountain Resort” [Associated Press]. “Ski patrollers on the largest U.S. ski resort have reached a cope with Utah’s Park Metropolis Mountain Resort to finish a strike that put a wrench in operations through the busy vacation season and into the brand new 12 months. A joint assertion launched by the chief board of the ski patrollers’ union mentioned a vote was scheduled for Wednesday on an settlement ‘that addresses each events’ pursuits and can finish the present strike. Everybody appears ahead to restoring regular resort operations and transferring ahead collectively as one group,’ it mentioned. The deal would run by way of April 2027. No different particulars about it had been launched. About 200 ski patrollers went on strike on Dec. 27 over wages they mentioned had been too low for top dwelling prices.”

“The Evaporative Cooling Impact in Social Community” [Bumblebee Labs]. From the Summary: “The Evaporative Cooling Impact describes the phenomenon that prime worth contributors depart a neighborhood as a result of they can’t achieve one thing from it, which ends up in the lower of the standard of the neighborhood. For the reason that folks more than likely to hitch a neighborhood are these whose high quality is under the typical high quality of the neighborhood, these newcomers are very more likely to hurt the standard of the neighborhood. With the enlargement of neighborhood, it is vitally arduous to keep up the standard of the neighborhood.” • Hmm.