2:00PM Water Cooler 10/1/2024 | bare capitalism

Date:


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Readers, we may have a Stay Weblog of tonight’s Vice-Presidential debate. Doorways open at 8:30pm ET; the talk correct begins at 9:00pm.

I additionally had a scheduling debacle, so I’ll be enjoying catchup for a bit, right here. –lambert

Chicken Tune of the Day

Return to the mimidae!

Blue Mockingbird, Yecora, Km 261, Sonora, Mexico.

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In Case You Would possibly Miss…

  1. Vance-Walz debate.
  2. Kamala’s October Shock?
  3. Results of Helene on North Carolina election.
  4. Boeing and Longshoremen strikes..

* * *

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Biden Administration

“US officers quietly backed Israel’s navy push in opposition to Hezbollah” [Politico]. “Senior White Home figures privately instructed Israel that the U.S. would assist its choice to ramp up navy stress in opposition to Hezbollah — even because the Biden administration publicly urged the Israeli authorities in latest weeks to curtail its strikes, in line with American and Israeli officers…. Behind the scenes, Hochstein, McGurk and different prime U.S. nationwide safety officers are describing Israel’s Lebanon operations as a history-defining second — one that may reshape the Center East for the higher for years to return. The considering goes: Israel has obliterated Hezbollah’s prime command construction in Lebanon, severely undercutting the group’s capabilities and weakened Iran, which used Hezbollah as a proxy and energy projector. The Israelis had deliberate to launch a considerably larger floor incursion into Lebanon this week, however Biden officers have urged in opposition to it, asking Israel to be extra focused in the way it performed its operations.” • Commentary:

For all I do know, these individuals suppose warfare with Iran is an election-winning technique. Extra:

Tbe everlasting query: Silly or evil? Could possibly be each! In the meantime:

“Close to,” eh? A lot for all that Epstein materials….

“Viewers ‘very nervous’ as Joe Biden’s Hurricane Helene tackle sparks concern” [Irish Star]. “Throughout his tackle, Biden was noticeably preventing again coughs whereas talking in regards to the storm’s tragic penalties… ‘We’re holding all our prayers on all of the lives misplaced…’ he managed between coughs…. “There’s nothing like questioning, ‘is my husband, spouse, son, daughter, mom, father alive? Many extra who stay with out electrical energy, water, meals, and communications,’ he continued, coughing once more, earlier than affirming to these affected by the catastrophe, ‘we aren’t leaving till the job is finished.’” • So, Biden’s third bout with Covid?

2024

Lower than forty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t flip the tide both. Regardless of the micturition and lamentation (very a lot together with my very own) in regards to the Trump marketing campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Setting Favorable to GOP” on the problems) do observe the regular deterioration in Kamala’s place within the (aggregated) prime battlegrounds. (In fact, we on the surface would possibly as properly be analyzing the entrails of birds after we attempt to predict what is going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly would possibly as properly be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher knowledge, and have the scenario as below management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.

* * *

Vance-Walz debate:

As soon as once more, doorways open for the Stay Weblog at 8:30pm! Personally, I anticipate this debate to be extra fascinating than the Presidential debate, given the logorrhea of the earlier combatants. However Vance has written a e book, and Walz’s spouse, additionally a trainer, had 40 college students on their highschool debate staff, so perhaps one thing rubbed off.

“JD Vance doesn’t suppose he wants debate prep to defeat Tim Walz” [Politico]. “‘Now we have properly developed views on public coverage so we don’t have to arrange that a lot,’ Vance stated in a Teamsters press name on Wednesday morning. ‘We really feel much more assured and albeit, you don’t have to arrange in case you don’t have to cover what you say.’ His assertion was in some ways precisely why Republicans — and particularly Trump — proceed to assist him: He’s pithy, plainspoken and will get spirited with the media. And in contrast to Trump, he stays relentlessly on message and is called an agile debater.”

“Need to Test That Truth? For V.P. Debate Viewers, Simply Scan the Code” [New York Times]. “CBS Information, host of Tuesday’s vice-presidential matchup between Senator JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz, is utilizing expertise to strive one thing new. A QR code — the checkerboard-like, black-and-white field that may be scanned by a smartphone — will seem onscreen for lengthy stretches of the CBS telecast. Viewers who scan the code shall be directed to the CBS Information web site, the place a squad of about 20 CBS journalists will publish fact-checks of the candidates’ remarks in actual time. The code will seem solely on CBS; viewers who tune in on a unique channel is not going to see it. (Almost each main community will simulcast the talk, beginning at 9 p.m. Japanese.) However it’s a novel strategy to information viewers, already accustomed to watching TV whereas hovering over a smartphone or laptop computer, to supplemental journalistic materials elsewhere.” • Could be good if customers may choose from a menu of QR codes, however no matter.

* * *

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris Is an Artless Dodger” [Peggy Noonan]. “The race is deadlocked with six weeks to go and in case you’re an undecided, not sure or wavering voter it seems to be like Terrible vs. Empty. [I]n phrases of coverage [Harris] is coming throughout as wholly with out substance…. This week she couldn’t or wouldn’t reply a single query straight, and other people may see it. She is an artless dodger…. Solely when talking of her private biography does she appear authoritative. In any other case she is ethereal, evasive, nonresponsive…. She owes us these solutions. It’s improper that she will be able to’t or gained’t tackle them. It’s disrespectful to the citizens. If voters don’t get a way of her deeper beliefs they may consider her as a assemble, one thing different individuals constructed to allow them to run the nation as she does photo-ops. Half of America wonders who’s actually operating issues because the Biden years ebb. They gained’t need to marvel for one more 4 years. Which will get us again to Terrible vs. Empty. When Individuals really feel that’s the selection and neither facet offers them cause to imagine in any other case, they’ll seemingly begin to suppose in methods they imagine sensible. Empty means hassle, a blur after we want a rudder, a nationwide gamble primarily based on inadequate info. It means a coverage regime that might be unpredictable, maybe excessive. You don’t need that. Terrible is—properly, terrible. However was president for 4 years, we didn’t all explode, establishments held, the threatened Structure maintained. So—perhaps that’s their vote. ‘Shut your eyes and consider England.’ Until in fact within the subsequent six weeks someone surprises them, and impresses them.” • Fascinating that Nooners makes use of “he” with out truly introducing Trump. Everyone knows who “he” is…..

Kamala (D): “JD Vance allegedly banned from coming into Primanti Brothers throughout marketing campaign cease; restaurant calls it ‘momentary confusion’” [WTRF]. “A preferred Pittsburgh restaurant is below hearth after Trump supporters declare that workers allegedly banned Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance from coming into the institution. Roughly 100 residents of Allegheny County have been ready on the eating places for Vance’s arrival. Washington County GOP Chair Sean Logue shared his account on social media and is now calling for a boycott of Primanti Brothers. Logue reported [sic] to KDKA that the supervisor instructed patrons that Vance was not allowed to make a marketing campaign cease at Primanti Brothers, however pushback got here when supporters reminded administration that Kamala Harris was granted a photograph op on the restaurant final month…. In keeping with stories, Vance stayed exterior of the restaurant whereas a staffer tried to barter with Primanti’s supervisor, going so far as calling company. Most of the Trump supporters walked out of the restaurant to take photos with Vance. A Primanti’s spokesperson instructed KDKA that Vance and his visitor have been then welcomed into the restaurant the place they have been in a position to discuss to completely different friends. Primanti Brothers launched the next assertion, ‘Primanti’s prides itself on being a staple of the Pittsburgh group and a proud American enterprise that has hosted sitting presidents, politicians, and political candidates from throughout the spectrum for over 90 years. Our doorways are open to all patrons who want to dine with us. With none advance discover, as we speak’s marketing campaign cease brought on some momentary confusion for our workers. Nevertheless, Senator Vance and his staff have been welcomed into our restaurant shortly after and engaged with our friends inside and on the property. Senator Vance’s supportive feedback that our supervisor obtained somewhat nervous given the key service, police and crowd precisely mirror the character of what occurred, however we’re glad that it was resolved rapidly.” It’s reported that whereas within the restaurant, Vance paid the invoice for the entire supporters and walked out two minutes later.” • Hmm. May be a workers screwup, however reads like a set-up to me, kind of a reverse Penzeys Spices transfer. And oops:

Undecided how “boss strikes” like this jibe with being a President of “all of the individuals.”

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump’s ageing is as actual as Biden’s” [Edward Luce, Financial Times]. “The one method to perceive his mind-set is to observe each rally to the tip or . Ninety-nine per cent of voters should not have the time. Which signifies that Trump is handled as the identical outdated Trump, eliciting acquainted shrugs with the most recent infantile insult or outrageous vow. You may smuggle a pointy cognitive decline into Trump’s persona and few would discover. In politics, this provides a uncommon type of hurricane insurance coverage. No person who rewatches Trump in 2016 and compares him with as we speak may deny that his reminiscence is patchier and his vocabulary smaller. Even when he avoids acquainted tangents about Hannibal Lecter and dying by electrocution or sharks, his repetition is notable. ‘Kamala is mentally impaired,’ Trump stated on the weekend. ‘Joe Biden turned mentally impaired. It’s unhappy. However mendacity Kamala Harris, truthfully, I imagine she was born that manner.’” • I imagine that I’m one of many only a few analysts — maybe the solely analyst — to assessment Trump’s transcripts, which I’ve accomplished since 2016, once I noticed him converse. After I in contrast Trump in 2016 to Trump in 2024 — utilizing transcripts, as Lucse suggests ought to be accomplished, however doesn’t appear to have accomplished — I concluded:

Nevertheless, I feel we will conclude that Trump’s psychological acuity is undiminished, that his populism could possibly be seen to have veered off in a Schmittian “pal and enemy” path, however that his populism may also be stated to incorporate on “kitchen desk” points, like ideas, actual wages, and unions, the primary two actually distinguishing him from Biden. (At this level we do not forget that below the CARES ACT, poverty truly diminished.) Trump, for good or unwell, stays distinctive…

Nevertheless, to be truthful to Luce, I in contrast rhetorical constructs and sentence construction; I didn’t think about vocabulary. Maybe I ought to take a look at that.

* * *

“Battleground states see waves of recent voters enroll who may sway 2024 race” [USA Today]. “Within the majority of the seven key battleground states the place Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris are notably shut within the polls, the present variety of registered voters is up in contrast with the 2020 presidential contest that coincided with the COVID-19 world pandemic. North Carolina, as one instance, boasts almost a half million extra registered individuals in 2024 in contrast with 2020, when Trump eked out a win over Joe Biden within the Tar Heel State by about 74,000 votes. Over in Michigan, the whole rely of registered voters has grown by greater than 350,000 since October of 2020. Biden’s margin of victory that yr over Trump within the midwestern battleground state: somewhat greater than 150,000 votes. Comparable voter registration developments are additionally enjoying out in Arizona, the place Biden bested Trump in 2020 by about 10,500 votes, and Nevada, the place the present Democratic president beat his predecessor by almost 33,600 votes. Between August 2020 and the tip of July this yr, the Arizona citizens grew by almost 125,000 voters. In Nevada − the least populated of this yr’s swing states − greater than 260,000 extra registered voters have signed up in contrast with this time 4 years in the past. There’s an vital caveat to this knowledge: Registered voters aren’t the identical factor as precise voters….”

* * *

GA: “Trump turns Hurricane Helene aftermath political” [Politico]. Oh my stars and garters! Extra: “Standing earlier than piles of bricks blown off a furnishings retailer in Valdosta, Georgia, Trump repeated his false declare that President Joe Biden wouldn’t get on the cellphone with the state’s Republican governor — regardless of Gov. Brian Kemp saying he had spoken to the president a day earlier and appreciated the federal assist his state has obtained. And addressing reporters who assembled in Georgia forward of his Monday afternoon cease, Trump predicted that Biden was ‘sleeping,’ criticized Harris for having been ‘out someplace campaigning, on the lookout for cash’ a day earlier — when Trump himself was rallying in Pennsylvania — and referred to her operating mate as ‘Tampon Tim.’ Even Trump appeared to acknowledge — no less than when studying from prewritten remarks — that it wasn’t the time or place. ‘As you understand, our nation is within the remaining weeks of a hard-fought nationwide election. At a time like this when a disaster hits, when our fellow residents cry out in want, none of that issues,’ Trump stated as he learn from sheets of notes. ‘We’re not speaking about politics now. Now we have to all get collectively and get this solved.’ However he refused to stay to that statesman’s tone on Monday. And for all of the political advantages Trump has appeared to reap for being the primary to point out up at catastrophe websites — resembling his go to to East Palestine, Ohio, early final yr, when Biden had did not go — his penchant for utilizing any alternative to smear his rivals was additionally on full show. Not directly, so, too, within the aftermath of a hurricane affecting the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, was the extra measured persona Harris is looking for to mission in a neck-and-neck race.”

MI: “‘A false sense of consolation’: Michigan Dems struggle to maintain voters’ consideration on abortion” [Politico]. “Democrats swept Michigan in 2022 by campaigning on abortion rights, profitable management of all branches of presidency in Lansing for the primary time in almost 40 years and making the state the primary to override a ban on the process after the autumn of Roe v. Wade. However this yr, regardless of leaning much more closely into the problem, Democrats stay just about tied in federal races that would decide the presidency and majorities in Congress. That’s fueling anxiousness that abortion slipped off many citizens’ radars after Michiganders accredited the poll initiative two years in the past. ‘There’s a false sense of consolation that in some way we’re okay as a result of it’s within the Michigan Structure,’ outgoing Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow instructed POLITICO not too long ago… Democrats’ struggle for Michigan is testing the efficiency and endurance of their nationwide message that Republicans will wipe out entry to abortion all over the place if given the prospect.’” •

NC: “Helene provides stress to election in North Carolina” [Axios (SlayTheSmaugs)]. “North Carolina, some of the vital battlegrounds within the race for president, is on the heart of the destruction from Hurricane Helene. Past the bodily and emotional toll of the storm, Helene all of the sudden has created large hurdles for voters and election officers simply 35 days earlier than the Nov. 5 election. ‘Voting gained’t be a precedence for lots of people,’ stated Seth Morris, an election regulation knowledgeable and affiliate at Parker Poe in North Carolina…. Early in-person voting begins in North Carolina on Oct. 17, a deadline which may be tough for officers in some components of the state to fulfill, particularly if any of their polling areas have been broken or destroyed. ‘There are small staffs in numerous these locations whose consideration is clearly going to be elsewhere,’ [Seth Morris, an election law expert and associate at Parker Poe in North Carolina] stated ‘[Many] gained’t have the ability to go to work this week and put together for early voting and to deal with the mail-ballots which might be coming in.’” • Confirming, or no less than supporting, my views expressed right here yesterday. This too–

NC: “How Helene’s destruction may have an effect on voting in North Carolina’s election” [News & Observer]. “Within the aftermath of Hurricane Helene’s destruction in Western North Carolina, issues have emerged about whether or not residents affected by the storm will have the ability to forged their ballots within the November election. Disruptions to the postal service, destruction of polling locations, lacking or broken IDs and extra may all pose challenges to voters with solely 36 days left till the election. ‘That is all a cascading collection of disasters,’ Gerry Cohen, a member of the Wake County Board of Elections, stated.” • I ought to have added that mail-in ballots can be disrupted; fifty lashes with a moist noodle for Lambert. NOTE: Blue Buncombe County, dwelling of Asheville, is the one county named.

NC: “Harris interrupts marketing campaign schedule to go to Georgia, North Carolina in hurricane aftermath” [The Hill]. The headline is misleading: “Harris will journey to Georgia on Wednesday after which to North Carolina ‘within the coming days,’ in line with a White Home official.”

PA: “Ballot reveals a decent race in Pennsylvania, with warning indicators for Harris amongst older voters” [Politico]. “Harris is profitable 49 % of seemingly voters, in contrast with 47 % for Trump and a pair of % for different candidates, the ballot accomplished by a bipartisan staff for AARP discovered. Three % are undecided…. Biden was down 5 proportion factors general in that April survey. Amongst voters aged 18 to 49, he was behind by 1 level; she is now forward by 14. He was dropping independents by 6 factors; she is profitable them by 9. With Democrats, girls, suburban voters, rural voters and even voters with out a school diploma, she is outperforming Biden. There’s a main voting bloc, although, amongst which she has slipped: seniors. Harris is dropping voters aged 65 and older by 7 factors, in contrast with 1 level for Biden. ‘Harris’ greatest weak point is older voters. It’s the greatest share of the citizens, and she or he is behind,’ stated Republican pollster Bob Ward, whose agency, Fabrizio Ward, helped conduct the AARP survey and likewise polls for the Trump marketing campaign. The economic system seems to be an enormous cause why older voters choose Trump to Harris. For voters aged 50 and up who ranked inflation and excessive costs as a prime situation, Trump has a 54-point lead.” • Older voters are probably the most dependable, too.

Clinton Legacy

“Clinton warns of October shock that may ‘distort and pervert’ Harris” [The Hill]. “Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned of an October shock that may ‘distort and pervert’ Vice President Harris. ‘There shall be concerted efforts to distort and pervert Kamala Harris, who she is, what she stands for, what she’s accomplished,’ Clinton stated throughout an interview with ‘Firing Line’ host Margaret Hoover. She pointed to the 2016 ‘pizzagate’ conspiracy idea that surrounded the tip of her presidential marketing campaign in opposition to Donald Trump.” • “Surrounded” goes numerous work, there. I adopted election 2016 intently, and I can’t say that Pizzagate figured largely within the protection, or that it affected the result (and did Clinton actually not point out Russia?). So I take this as projection, and I presume the Democrats have a pre-emptive strike prepared. We’ll see!

Realignment and Legitimacy

“It’s The Disaster of Masculinity, Silly” [Sasha Stone, Free Thinking]. “I don’t need to insult Tim Walz or Doug Emhoff. I might by no means need to make them really feel dangerous about issues they will’t assist, like masculinity, however BRUH. They might be what one would possibly name delicate males. Nobody out there may be shopping for that Tim Walz is the masculine male position mannequin that may carry again male voters. He’s simply not that man. They’re making an attempt to promote him as Chief Brody, however actually, he’s Matt Hooper from the Oceanographic Institute.” • Hooper is, I feel, a personality from Jaws. Undecided what’s occurring on this publish, however “irritable psychological gestures” appears to cowl it.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

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Social Norming

It appears to me {that a} broadening neurological spectrum is vital and, extra to the purpose, adaptive:

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TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

Lambert right here: Eventually, the wastewater knowledge seems to be improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Again to College” bullet, no less than on the nationwide degree. The wastewater drop is strengthened by the positivity numbers as properly.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 23 Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):

Variants [3] CDC September 28 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, knowledge September 27:

Nationwide [6] CDC September 7:

Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens September 30: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 21:

Vacationers Information
Positivity[9] CDC September 9: Variants[10] CDC September 9:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21:

LEGEND

1) for charts new as we speak; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with sizzling spots annotated. A lot much less intense!

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very talked-about. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, however value noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Positively down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).

[7] (Walgreens) Huge drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job openings rose by 329,000 to eight.040 million in August 2024 from an upwardly revised 7.711 million in July and above market expectations of seven.655 million.”

Employment State of affairs: “United States Job Quits” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job quits within the US fell to three.084 million in August of 2024 from the downwardly revised 3.243 million within the earlier month, the bottom since August of 2020.”

Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index within the US jumped to 58.6 in September 2024 from 56.4 in August, pointing to the best development charge within the logistics sector in two years. The general index has now elevated for ten consecutive months, offering robust proof that the logistics trade is again on stable footing.” • Impact of ILA strike not talked about.

Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The S&P International US Manufacturing PMI was revised increased to 47.3 in September 2024 from a preliminary of 47, however remained the bottom since June 2023. It marked the third consecutive month of contraction, with each output and new orders falling sharply as a consequence of weakened demand and political uncertainty.”

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Provide Chain: “East and Gulf coast ports strike, with ILA longshoremen strolling off job from New England to Texas, stranding billions in commerce” [CNBC]. “Roughly 50,000 ILA union longshoremen have been strolling off the job at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports from New England to Texas beginning at 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday after failing to succeed in an settlement with ports possession on a brand new contract, the union’s first strike since 1977. Between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions of {dollars} in commerce month-to-month transfer by means of the U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports. The Worldwide Longshoremen’s Affiliation, the biggest maritime union in North America, rejected a proposal from the port administration group USMX on Monday that included a wage hike over six years close to 50%.” • Commentary:

Provide Chain: “‘I’ll cripple you’: Dockworkers union vows to close down U.S. economic system with strike” [MarketWatch]. “In a video posted by the union final month, the ILA chief negotiator warned a dockworkers strike had the facility to ‘cripple’ the U.S. economic system, by blocking the import of every thing from automobiles and garments to development supplies. ‘These individuals as we speak don’t know what a strike is,’ [ the International Longshoremen’s Association’s chief negotiator, Harold Daggett] stated. ‘When my males hit the streets, from Maine to Texas, each single port will lock down. … The whole lot in the US comes on a ship.’” • Presumably the contract will finish, as ought to Boeings, on Might 1, 2028? Talking of not understanding “what a strike is.”

Provide Chain: “White Home left with few good choices as dockworkers stroll out” [CNN]. “For weeks, Cupboard-level officers throughout an array of businesses have been holding shut tabs on the negotiations between the Worldwide Longshoremen’s Affiliation and a consortium of firms managing ports alongside the East and Gulf coasts. White Home officers on Friday met with representatives from the consortium, the US Maritime Company, to encourage the affiliation to remain on the negotiating desk. In terms of brokering a possible deal, labor specialists say the White Home has simply two instruments: Utilizing the bully pulpit and invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, which might power the longshore employees to get again on the job. President Joe Biden has despatched a transparent message that he has no plans to do the latter. ‘No,’ Biden instructed reporters Sunday when requested whether or not he would intervene in a possible strike. ‘As a result of it’s collective bargaining, and I don’t imagine in Taft-Hartley.’ Breaking the strike can be a politically harmful transfer for Biden as his vice chairman, Kamala Harris, runs to succeed him within the Oval Workplace. With out taking that transfer, there’s not a lot else the White Home can do.” • Too dangerous in regards to the railroad employees, nevertheless it wasn’t an election yr.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Mulls $10B Inventory Sale To Shore Up Funds” [Investopedia]. “Boeing is reportedly contemplating promoting as much as $10 billion in inventory to spice up its income because it offers with a strike by its machinists. Nevertheless, Boeing seemingly gained’t increase fairness for no less than a month, … as the corporate seems to be to finish the strike by reaching a cope with the union and get a clearer estimate of its monetary impression. The aircraft maker was already in a tough monetary place earlier than the strike, after burning by means of billions to handle quite a lot of points, together with mechanical issues with its planes and a authorized settlement with the federal government associated to 2 lethal crashes…. Shares of Boeing have been 2% increased at $154.98 in early buying and selling Tuesday, although even with Tuesday’s features, they’ve misplaced over 40% of their worth for the reason that begin of the yr.” • Appears going to numerous hassle simply to bust the unions.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Must Take a Cue From UPS and Pay Its Strikers” [Bloomberg]. “Boeing Co.’s labor negotiators ought to have paid extra consideration to how Carol Tomé, the chief government officer of United Parcel Service Inc., dealt with talks with its union final yr. UPS employees have been itching to strike, and the corporate was inevitably going to have to present hefty raises. As a substitute of digging in over a few proportion factors on the wage will increase, risking a strike and creating extra animosity with its workforce, Tomé relented to the union’s calls for. The upper labor prices have squeezed margins, and buyers registered their dismay with a 27% drop within the share value for the reason that tentative deal was introduced in July final yr. UPS clients, although, have been grateful that Tomé averted the disruption a strike would have brought on. Tomé’s calculation was that even when she pushed the negotiations to the purpose of a strike, the corporate would have ended up in the identical place — an enormous payout and expensive adjustments resembling including air-con to new supply automobiles. The one distinction would have been the employee unwell will and indignant clients {that a} strike would have provoked. Automakers, alternatively, let labor talks break down, and so they ended up agreeing to file pay will increase after a pricey six-week strike. Boeing has dug in its heels with placing machinists who’ve shut down factories for greater than every week, and it’s not working. The planemaker will greater than seemingly have to fulfill employees’ calls for to finish this damaging and expensive strike. Clients are upset that the delays in aircraft deliveries will worsen. Suppliers are left at nighttime about how a lot they need to in the reduction of on manufacturing, which hurts their employees and funds. Repairing the tradition of high quality and security on the manufacturing unit ground is in jeopardy. The strike is barely accelerating Boeing’s money burn, spurring Moody’s Scores to contemplate reducing the corporate’s debt score.” •

Manufacturing: “Over 40 Airways May Be Flying Boeing Jets With Dangerous Rudder Elements” [Jalopnik]. “The Nationwide Transportation Security Board warned over 40 overseas airways on Tuesday that their Boeing 737 planes could also be fitted with probably harmful rudder parts. The company recognized 271 components that would fail and jam the rudder management system. The NTSB found the problem whereas investigating a February touchdown incident involving a United Airways flight arriving at Newark Liberty Worldwide Airport.” • Whoops.

Manufacturing: “Boeing can get well from its Starliner troubles, however it could actually’t afford some other misfires” [The Conversation]. “The partial failure of Starliner’s mission doesn’t assist Boeing’s effort to bounce again from its issues. The corporate’s popularity has not been irreparably broken, nonetheless. Boeing can get well and is taking the best initiatives to re-emphasise a security tradition – one thing that’s essential to its enterprise going ahead. However recovering belief whereas upholding monetary efficiency can take years.” • Clearly, step one to buildng a security tradition is busting the unions.

Tech: A lot for backup:

I had all the time assumed unpowered SSDs have been secure indefinitely. Since I vehemently oppose the cloud, I suppose I’ll should get a CD burner or some such. Time consuming!

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As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 68 Greed (earlier shut: 75 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 66 (Hreed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 1 at 1:46:30 PM ET.

Gallery

For Alma-Tadema stans:

Class Warfare

“Specific Tape Displaying Diddy and A-Listing Celeb Being ‘Shopped Round,’ Lawyer Says” [Hollywood Reporter]. “”There have already got been [Diddy] tapes leaking round Hollywood, being shopped round to people in Hollywood, however one explicit particular person contacted me to buy a selected video they have been in possession of, and to contact the one that was within the video to see in the event that they have been occupied with buying the video earlier than it turned public information,” [Attorney Ariel Mitchell-Kidd] stated. The legal professional declined to reveal the identification of the particular person within the video, however stated they’re much more well-known than Combs. ‘Mr. Combs was within the tape and this different particular person is, I might enterprise to say, extra high-profile than Mr. Combs,’ Mitchell-Kidd defined. The legal professional stated she’s seen screengrabs from the video, which was recorded at Diddy’s dwelling in Atlanta. ‘The opposite particular person within the video may be very seen. It’s no query if it’s that particular person within the video, and I can inform that the video is pornographic in nature,’ the legal professional stated, including that the unnamed celeb didn’t seem to know they have been being recorded. ‘The particular person isn’t trying into the digital camera, so to me, it doesn’t look like that particular person is aware of they’re being videotaped,’ she famous, ‘like they’re being surreptitiously recorded.’”• I don’t care about celebrities. How about individuals with precise energy? Executives? Traders? Regulators? Electeds?

Information of the Wired

“Do All Issues Have Technical Fixes?” [Communications of the ACM]. “The unstated foundational declare is just not that computing expertise confers sure advantages, a realistic declare, and a matter of truth, however that it carries normative worth, that it’s good; specifically, our tech is nice, and subsequently ought to be on the market on the planet. That is tough.” • By Betteridge’s Legislation….

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are fantastic! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From CC:

CC writes: “Seen this on the publish on the backside of the steps at my daughter’s home. Momma Spider on the publish and her bunch(? Extremely technical description), just under her above the handrail.”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t categorical the views of the Bare Capitalism website. If you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

If you happen to hate PayPal, you may e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on how one can ship a test. Thanks!

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