2:00PM Water Cooler 10/14/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Tune of the Day

Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Antigua Guatemala–Cerro de la Cruz, Sacatepéquez, Guatemala.

1. Democrat bedwetting
2. Kamala messaging disasters: Walz goes looking, manly males, Obama and black males
3. Walz oppo bubbles up, not but popped.
4. Labor Secretary Su flies to Seattle, Boeing’s doom loop.

1. Democrat bedwetting
2. Kamala messaging disasters: Walz goes looking, manly males, Obama and black males
3. Labor Secretary Su flies to Seattle, Boeing’s doom loop.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than thirty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

In case you ignore the complete idea of margin of error and go along with the narrative, one other good week for Trump, particularly in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, within the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. After all, we on the skin may as effectively be inspecting the entrails of birds after we attempt to predict what’s going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly may as effectively be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher information, and have the scenario as below management as it may be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

* * *

“‘This Is Going To Be Too Shut for Consolation’ David Plouffe on the state of play for his boss, Kamala Harris, and what he thinks of the ‘bed-wetters.’” (interview) [David Plouffe, New York Magazine]. Plouffe: “There are independents. Most independents behave in most elections like Democrats or Republicans, however there are some within the center that undoubtedly fluctuate election to election. They are typically overrepresented within the true swing voter universe however there are a bunch of those independents who typically think about themselves Republicans who’re repelled by Trump. And so that you ask: How can we go from mainly 48 to 50? Nicely, it’s going to be a few of these voters. It’s going to be ensuring we do an excellent job of turnout, it’s going to be essential that we maximize our vote share amongst Democrats, and we predict we’re headed to an exceedingly excessive quantity there. I’ll say: Turnout is essential to us. We’re spending quite a lot of time on it, some huge cash on it, quite a lot of power on it. However I feel — and that is uncommon, as a result of normally this describes Democrats — . And he’s obtained loads using on that. It doesn’t appear to be that he has constructed the sort of operation within the battleground states that might be in line with executing on that…. What’s completely different this time than ’16 and even ’20 is he actually is reliant on lots of people who’ve by no means voted earlier than, have by no means voted for a Republican earlier than, or have possibly voted in one of many final 4 elections. I’m unsure they’ve constructed the group for that.” • Attention-grabbing that Plouffe accepts Brownstein’s idea of the case case that irregular voters are key. Much more curiously, Plouffe thinks that the Trump marketing campaign is “fragile” as a result of its making an attempt to develop the citizens in a approach they aren’t.

“Harris shedding floor with younger Latino males, unique USA-TODAY polls discover” [MSN]. “Vice President Kamala Harris is shedding help amongst younger Latino males, at the same time as she continues to carry a lead over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump amongst Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada – two key states that can assist decide the 2024 election, in keeping with two unique new USA TODAY/Suffolk College polls… David Paleologos, director of Suffolk College Political Analysis Heart, stated whereas it’s excellent news for Harris that she’s main with Latino voters in each states, the present margin seemingly received’t be sufficient for her to assert victories there. ‘It’s solely younger individuals and males, however that offset … is the explanation why Harris’ numbers will not be the place they need to be (for her to win),’ Paleologos stated. Harris’ polling in each states amongst Latino voters is barely trailing the place Biden was in 2020.”

* * *

Kamala (D): “Walz goes pheasant looking together with his personal Beretta as marketing campaign makes enchantment to gun homeowners” [CBS]. “Sleepy Eye, Minnesota — Carrying a Beretta shotgun, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz trekked via tall straw-like grass for 3 hours on Saturday for opening day of the state’s pheasant looking season, however didn’t get one shot off regardless of his efforts. ‘There’s good days and there’s nice days pheasant looking,’ Walz stated when the day wrapped up.”

Dangerous staffwork on a number of ranges right here. Go away every little thing else apart, together with the crass stereotyping. Did they don’t have any subject material professional to seek the advice of to ensure Walz’s gun was the proper type of gun? And you’ll say Walz ought to have identified, but it surely’s nonetheless the employees’s job to forestall gaffes. Now the marketing campaign is worse off than earlier than; each pandering and ineffective.

Kamala (D): “Dude…No! Professional-Kamala Harris advert focusing on ‘actual males’ is mocked because the ‘cringiest ever created’: ‘Have they ever met a male human?’” [Daily Mail]. “The video options varied males declaring their curiosity in ‘manly clichés’ like bears, consuming bourbon, consuming steaks, fixing automobiles, and lifting weights… The advert options males with horses, bikes, in a mechanics store, sitting on a truck, lifting weights, or leaning in opposition to a fence… It was shared on the VoteSaveAmerica social media pages, organized by the Crooked.com group that runs Pod Save America.” • In your delectation, right here’s the advert:

(“If it’s a must to say it….”) Jogs my memory of this well-known video from again within the day (so denatured Trump performs it at rallies):

Kamala’s supporters have simply swapped in numerous, extra up-to-date male stereotypes (which, I suppose, is what identification politcs is all about).

* * *

Waltz oppo:

Right here is the present declare, from @DocNetyoutube:

Final night time, I used to be given an announcement from the sufferer of Tim Walz to launch this morning. I need to inform you; the sufferer has by no means advised me of his intent to deliver Tim Walz to court docket. I assume this implies making an attempt to hunt authorized recourse, if potential, in a prison court docket.

I even have seen… pic.twitter.com/KbGDOiiKBF

— Black Insurrectionist–I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS (@DocNetyoutube) October 14, 2024

>

Huge if true. Earlier on this emergent thread, the accuser claimed to have been by Walz to an Indigo Women live performance, as a minor, and abused. (Curiously, the one who would appear to have been @DocNetyoutube’s sufferer has already introduced himself: “Tim and Gwen Walz had been my lecturers in highschool. That story within the New York Occasions about them taking a homosexual scholar to an Indigo Women live performance—that scholar was me!”) Within the above Tweet, the accuser expands his authentic claims to incorporate a rustic live performance, and a China journey, on which he claims to have gone. (Here’s a description of a China journey; one other.) Lastly, the political dynamite (1): “When Tim Walz obtained his DUI [sic]. It was after a night with me” (“his DUI. It was” is within the authentic); and (2) a Chinese language image tatooed on Walz’s higher thigh, and “a small scar on his left arm” (jogs my memory of Paula Jones on Invoice Clinton’s misshapen member). The accuser might come ahead (“later”):

He has agreed to. I’ll announce later..

— Black Insurrectionist–I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS (@DocNetyoutube) October 14, 2024

What I might anticipate reporters, if any nonetheless stay, to do: (1) Discover the accuser; if certainly he went on the China journey, it shouldn’t be that arduous; (2) interview the opposite China journey members; what did they witness, if something; (3) straighten out the live shows. Had been there one or two Indigo Women live shows; (4) straighten out the timeline. We’ve the live shows, the China journeys, the DUI, Walz’s resignation from the Nebraska college system, and the Walzes transferring to a brand new college system in Minnesota. I don’t have time to place that sequence collectively and match it as much as the accusations.

* * *

In the meantime, @DocNetyoutube has kind:

“EXCLUSIVE: X Consumer ‘Black Insurrectionist’ Agrees to Put Gateway Pundit in Contact with Alleged ABC Whistleblower’s Legal professional After Releasing ‘Affidavit’ on Debate Rigging Scandal” [Gateway Pundit]. However: “The Gateway Pundit can’t but independently confirm these allegations, however our authorized group has reached out to Black Insurrectionist, who agreed to facilitate contact with the whistleblower’s legal professional. In change for conserving the whistleblower’s identification confidential, an interview could possibly be organized to additional examine the claims.” • To my data, there was no interview.

“ABC Lastly Addresses MAGA ‘Affidavit’ Claiming It Helped Harris Win Debate” [Daily Beast]. “The “Black Insurrectionist” account, having grown by almost 30,000 followers, ultimately shared the six-page ‘affidavit’ on Sunday. The doc is dated Sept. 9, the day earlier than the talk. The particular person—whose identify, handle, and signature are blacked out, aside from they reside in ‘Manhattan New York’ [sic]—alleges they’ve been with ‘ABC Information’ for over 10 years, however they’ve in some way noticed ‘vital transformations within the nature of reports reporting on the group’ because it was acquired by Disney in 1996.” And: “The doc additionally claims to have been verified by a notary public, although the doc doesn’t present a notary seal.” Nevertheless it will get higher: “An article on a little-known weblog indicated the alleged whistleblower had been killed in a automotive crash earlier than they might unveil the affidavit. That proposition was pushed by Greene on X, who claimed that the whistleblower had died ‘in keeping with information stories.’ She then retracted the declare and demanded a ‘critical investigation’ into the doc. Even the Gateway Pundit, a far-right web site that delves into misinformation and false tales, warned its readers: ‘It’s clear to us that it is a full hoax.’ (The “Black Insurrectionist” account later claimed they put the web site in contact with the whistleblower’s legal professional.)” • A automotive crash. How handy. And if actually the whistleblower had an legal professional, nothing got here of it. Apparently, the entire thing was an excessive amount of even for Gateway Pundit, which isn’t squeamish.

* * *

Lastly, the Black Insurrectionist tweet storm that began all of it was spun out in a number of, impropertly threaded, tweets, and it too is somewhat sketchy. @AgentSelf99B examines the accuser’s putatively authentic emails, as introduced within the type of display dumps by Black Insurrectionist’s account:

There’s extra, however that’s all for now.

* * *

Once more, huge if true. Perhaps Black Insurrectionist obtained fortunate, and the accuser will really come ahead to be vetted. I can effectively consider that the Kamala operation butchered this. Nevertheless, “that’s what they might do” doesn’t imply that’s what they did (at the very least for an accusation like this).

* * *

Kamala (D): “Barack Obama’s Tiresome Condescension Towards Black Males” [New York Magazine]. “One needn’t equivocate to acknowledge that there are substantive causes for Black voters to reject Democrats like Obama and Harris on the identical foundation as they do Republicans. The framework Obama makes use of leaves little room for misgivings about the truth that Harris goes to nice lengths to break down the gap between herself and the GOP. When she realized that former vice-president Dick Cheney, a chief architect of the USA’ atrocities through the Conflict on Terror, was planning to vote for her, Harris unironically thanked him for ‘what he has executed to serve our nation.’ She has change into extra hawkish on immigration in response to Trump’s bare xenophobia, and he or she has recommitted to unconditionally sending arms to Israel amid its slaughter of Gazan and Lebanese civilians — a dogmatic place held by Democratic and Republican administrations alike, together with Biden’s and Trump’s. Throughout a current look on ABC’s The View, Harris appeared to flub a simple alternative to distance herself from the unpopular incumbent when she struggled to elucidate how she would govern in another way. However she recovered later that day by reiterating an earlier promise that, in contrast to Biden, she would appoint a Republican to her Cupboard.” • Commentary:

I’ve met just about all the preferred Dems or at the very least been in areas with them after we unionized Amazon. One one that I’ve by no means heard from until this date not even to congratulate staff preventing again is Barrack Obama. He can’t preach that Black man brother discuss to me.

— Christian Smalls (@Shut_downAmazon) October 13, 2024

* * *

“Why historian who precisely predicts elections says October shock is a ‘delusion’” [USA Today]. Allan Lichtman, the historian who appropriately predicted 9 of the ten most up-to-date presidential elections, stated in an interview that any October shock that might upend the 2024 presidential race is a ‘delusion.’ Lichtman: “[I]t’s governing, not campaigning that counts. …[T]his entire thought of an October shock is a large delusion,’ he stated. ‘I’ve all the time made my predictions earlier than then, and by no means change them.’”

* * *

MI: “Harris’ struggles with Michigan’s working-class voters offers opening for Trump, GOP” [FOX]. “In response to a report in The Wall Avenue Journal on Tuesday, distinguished Michigan Democrats, together with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, have made appeals to the Harris marketing campaign to concentrate on the state extra because the election attracts to an in depth. They’ve additionally warned Harris to sharpen her financial messaging, the report notes, with fears spreading that Trump has executed effectively to court docket the state’s working class voters. Harris’ struggles have additionally prolonged to union members, a gaggle that has lengthy been a stronghold for Democrats within the state. Nevertheless, an inside ballot performed by Teamsters, one of many nation’s largest and most influential unions, discovered that members in Michigan most popular Trump (61.7%) over Harris (35.2%), whereas nationwide union leaders declined to make an endorsement on this 12 months’s presidential race, regardless of supporting President Biden’s marketing campaign in 2020. Harris additionally failed to achieve the help of the Worldwide Affiliation of Fireplace Fighters, which additionally supported Biden in 2020, although she did acquire the help of each United Auto Employees and the Service Staff Worldwide Union.” • I can’t think about Whitmer’s current “bizarre” video helped.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others will not be up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Nonetheless some sizzling spots, however I can’t draw circles round complete areas this week. Excellent news!

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* extremely popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, however price noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Positively down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “every little thing in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.

[7] (Walgreens) Huge drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly jumped to 11.5 in September 2024, the very best since April 2022, in comparison with -4.7 in August and forecasts of -3.9.”

Manfacturing: “Performing US Labor Secretary intervenes to attempt to finish Boeing standoff with union” [Reuters]. “U.S. Performing Labor Secretary Julie Su flew to Seattle to intervene within the labor dispute between Boeing and about 33,000 putting staff that threatens the debt-laden firm’s funds.” And: “The most recent disaster comes as Boeing’s markets are rising and plenty of of its rivals are scooping up scarce labour to alleviate stress on aerospace provide chains. ‘The trick shall be not shedding the ten% of individuals you wish to maintain, which is much more vital than ordinary within the put up pandemic talent scarcity surroundings,’ stated Company Companions analyst Nick Cunningham.” • The pandemic surroundings isn’t “put up,” however however.

Manufacturing: “Boeing shares will not be a purchase but” [The Street]. “The inventory will virtually definitely see risky buying and selling this week. What you wish to see is a backside that holds. To get there most likely requires these components: Peace between labor and the corporate… Assure of labor within the Puget Sound area…. Shoring up Boeing’s capital place…. Peace with the regulators…. Peace with all of the individuals suing Boeing over the 2018 and 2019 crashes.” • Numerous Ortberg’s plate.

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s infinite doom loop provides no respite to new CEO Ortberg” [Fortune]. “[W]ith so-called contact labor accounting for lower than 5% for the full price of a business plane program, some observers marvel why Boeing isn’t transferring with extra urgency to finish the work stoppage that’s including to its monetary misery. ‘It’s not a needle mover by way of Boeing profitability,’ stated Ken Herbert, analyst with RBC Capital Markets. ‘What are we ready for right here? Every single day that goes by, it’s extra disruptive and extra of a money drain.’” • Good query!

Manufacturing: “Emirates to Have Severe Talks with Boeing over New 777X Delays” [Aviation A2Z]. “Emirates President Tim Clark expressed skepticism about Boeing’s capacity to forecast supply dates precisely. He highlighted the Sort Inspection Authorisation halt on the 777X and the extended union strikes as main obstacles. The 777X is essential for Emirates’ future wide-body fleet technique, particularly since Airbus has ceased A380 manufacturing. Clark revealed that Emirates has made vital and expensive amendments to its fleet applications as a result of Boeing’s ‘a number of contractual shortfalls.’ … Plane delays have change into an industry-wide concern, affecting each Boeing and Airbus. Airways resort to conserving older plane operational longer, typically retrofitting them at vital price.”

At present’s Worry & Greed Index: 77 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 74 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 69 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 14 at 1:16:35 PM ET. • FIrst transition to Excessive Greed for awhile!

Picture E book

“A window coated with raindrops pursuits me greater than {a photograph} of a well-known particular person.” –Saul Leiter

Zeitgeist Watch

Gallery

“An Astronomer Has Recognized the Village Street in This Van Gogh Portray” [Artnet]. “Having the ability to pinpoint a exact location of an space depicted in an art work normally isn’t an actual science. Nevertheless, Donald Olson, an astrophysicist and forensic astronomer on the State College System Regent, has used his scientific coaching to find out the place Vincent van Gogh’s iconic 1884 work, Lane of Poplars at Sundown (now held by the Kröller-Müller Museum within the Netherlands), was actually painted.” • The logic is simply too advanced to excerpt, however right here’s the portray:

Permaculture

Appropriate, in my opinion:

Carbon seize? Feh!

Information of the Wired

“the quiet artwork of consideration” [stormrider]. “The thoughts, like a backyard, requires tending. It wants persistence, a gentle hand, and, above all, consistency. There shall be days when it appears unruly, when previous habits return, and when focus feels elusive. However as of late, too, are a part of the method. Every small effort, every second of renewed consideration, builds upon the final. Over time, these moments accumulate, and what was as soon as tough turns into second nature. And so, the journey to mastery of the thoughts begins not with grand gestures however with the only of practices: the apply of paying consideration. Consideration to the current, consideration to what actually issues, and a spotlight to the quiet areas in between. On this approach, step-by-step, thought by thought, we transfer nearer to that elusive state of readability, of peace, and of freedom.”