2:00PM Water Cooler 10/29/2024 | bare capitalism

Countdown!

Lambert right here: Tiny margins, however all crimson. If I had been working the Kamala marketing campaign, I’d need to see some blue. After all, we on the surface would possibly as nicely be inspecting the entrails of birds once we attempt to predict what’s going to occur to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, particularly, who will decide the end result of the election however would possibly as nicely be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher knowledge, and have the state of affairs as underneath management as it may be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

“Harris Aides Quietly Develop Extra Bullish on Defeating Trump” [New York Times]. “Few Democrats dispute that the race seems terribly aggressive: By no means in trendy presidential campaigns have so many states been so tight this near Election Day. Polling averages present that every one seven battleground states are inside the margin of error, that means the distinction between a half-point up and a half-point down — primarily a rounding error — might win or lose the White Home.” And: “For all his bravado in public, Mr. Trump is privately cranky and burdened, in accordance with three individuals in touch with him, with a schedule marked by power lateness. Ms. Harris, aides say, is energized by her crowds.”

Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes:

Kamala (D): “Democrats alarmed Harris’s financial message isn’t breaking by” [The Hill]. “One main Democratic donor instructed The Hill that Harris hasn’t correctly made the case on the financial system. ‘Her financial message hasn’t damaged by,’ the donor mentioned. ‘And the financial system is the problem most individuals care about. She narrowed the hole a little bit on the problem, however she’s left lots of people questioning about her imaginative and prescient.’… And whereas Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead on the problem, a latest Reuters/Ipsos discovered voters nonetheless suppose Trump has a greater method than Harris on the financial system, by a margin of 46 p.c to 38 p.c. The survey discovered that 61 p.c of voters in battleground states say the financial system is on the ‘mistaken observe.’ Robert Reich, who served as secretary of Labor underneath President Clinton, wrote Monday that Harris’s message must ‘middle on anti-elitist economics.’” • Oh, yeah, within the last week of the marketing campaign [bangs head on desk].

Kamala (D): “Harris, getting into last stretch, stresses unity and paints Trump as a divider” [WaPo]. “”We’re all right here as a result of we’re combating for a democracy and for the appropriate of individuals to be heard and seen,” Harris mentioned. “We aren’t concerning the ‘enemy inside.’ We’re all on this collectively, and that’s what we’re combating for.’” • How are the “deplorables” not an “enemy inside”? Commentary:

PA: “Bob Casey Performs the Trump Card” [Wall Street Journal]. “Every week from the election, we now have bipartisan consensus on two factors relating to Pennsylvania. The primary is that the presidential contest is means too near name. The second is that just one contender has coattails. Each candidates for Senate—Republican challenger Dave McCormick and Democratic incumbent Bob Casey—agree on who that’s: Donald Trump. That Mr. McCormick would hitch his wagon to Mr. Trump is not any shock. However Mr. Casey can also be wrapping his arms across the former president as a method of boosting his credibility. He’s doing this whilst Kamala Harris is denouncing Mr. Trump as a ‘fascist’ and Hillary Clinton is likening his Sunday rally at Madison Sq. Backyard to a 1939 gathering sponsored by the pro-Nazi German American Bund.”

PA: “A brand new Supreme Courtroom case might change the results of the presidential election” [Vox]. Genser v. Butler County Board of Elections. “On October 23, the Pennsylvania Supreme Courtroom dominated that many citizens who solid a mailed-in poll improperly, thus rendering their vote “void,” needs to be allowed to solid a poll on Election Day that may truly be counted. Although it’s exhausting to pin down precisely what number of voters might be impacted by this choice, it’s seemingly that 1000’s of Pennsylvanians will regain their capability to vote within the November election if the state supreme court docket’s choice stays in impact… On Monday, the Republican Social gathering requested the US Supreme Courtroom to intervene and successfully disenfranchise the 1000’s of voters who might be allowed to vote if the state court docket’s Genser choice stands.” • Necessary and value studying in full, each for the maths (17,000 votes would possibly get tossed out) and the reason of the Unbiased State Legislature Doctrine. Bears watching,

PA: “Breaking down the expansion of GOP and decline of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania, county by county” [WESA]. “As of Sept. 16, Democrats made up 44% of registered voters within the commonwealth, down from a 2009 excessive of 51.2%, whereas Republicans had been at 40.2%, up from 36.9% in 2009. Unaffiliated and third-party voters have boosted their numbers much more, from 11.9% in 2009 to fifteen.7%…. Pennsylvania, like many states across the nation, has ended up polarized: extremely populated city counties equivalent to Philadelphia and Allegheny are overwhelmingly Democratic, whereas Republicans dominate in outlying and rural counties.” • Actually nice county knowledge, with charts.

PA: “How Democrats’ voter-registration benefit eroded in Pennsylvania, and what it means for 2024” [NBC]. “Already registered voters altering their celebration has been probably the most consequential issue narrowing the Democratic registration edge. Over 160,000 individuals who had been registered Democrats in 2021 at the moment are registered Republicans.Conversely, solely 58,000 Republicans shifted their registration to Democratic throughout the identical time interval. Furthermore, one other 83,000 individuals who had been registered as Democrats in 2021 have switched to being unaffiliated with a serious celebration. Somewhat greater than half of that variety of beforehand registered Republicans — 50,000 — did the identical. ”

PA: “Trump’s Puerto Rico fallout is ‘spreading like wildfire’ in Pennsylvania” [Politico]. • Perhaps. The sourcing is closely Democrat, together with a precinct captain. What else are they going to say?

VA: “The Mark of Kaine: The Biden Administration Underneath Fireplace for Virginia Lawsuit over Non-Citizen Voter Removals” [Jonathan Turley]. “The Biden Administration sued to cease the removing of 6,303 alleged noncitizens from Virginia’s voter rolls earlier than the election, which is anticipated to be shut within the state. It depends on the Nationwide Voter Registration Act (NVRA), or the ‘Motor Voter Regulation,’ which bars ‘systemic’ removing of voters from the rolls lower than 90 days earlier than an election.” As Jebbie did for George in Florida 2000, although nicely earlier than 90 days. Extra: “Gov. Glenn Youngkin ordered compliance with current legal guidelines, citing Virginia code 24.2-439, requiring the removing of noncitizens whose names had been added underneath false pretenses. It additionally cited Virginia Code 24.2-1019, requiring registrars to right away notify their county or metropolis prosecutor of such conditions. The NVRA has exceptions for removals inside what the Justice Division calls the ‘quiet’ interval earlier than an election, together with the removing of people who’re ‘ineligible to vote due to a legal conviction or psychological incapacity, or for ‘correction of registration data pursuant to this chapter.” Nevertheless, the state argues as a threshold matter that these will not be systemic removals. The state argues that these are particular person actions triggered robotically by residents figuring out themselves as noncitizens however then becoming a member of the voting rolls. It’s a crime for a noncitizen to vote within the election. The state notes that the voter is notified of the issue and allowed to appropriate any errors to stay on the rolls. If they don’t appropriate the issue, they’re faraway from the rolls. Nevertheless, they’ll nonetheless vote on election day with a ‘provisional’ poll to problem any removing.” • Hmm.

WA: “Arson destroys tons of of ballots inside a Washington state drop field” [Washington State Standard]. In Vancouver. “Vancouver is positioned within the third Congressional District, the place Democratic U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is working for reelection towards Republican Joe Kent. The race is certainly one of a handful nationwide anticipated to find out partisan management of the U.S. Home. In 2022, Gluesenkamp Perez beat Kent by 2,629 votes.” • After all the reply is extra surveillance.

“New Acquisitions: 1933 and the Definition of Fascism” [A Collection of Unmitigated Pedantry]. An evaluation of Trump’s rhetoric that takes it severely, and actually. “The American system is a good bit extra resilient to this kind of takeover than the Weimar Republic or the Kingdom of Italy, however resilient is just not immune – such an effort might succeed and even when it failed might do great injury. Fascists, in spite of everything, hardly ever depart energy with out violence – this one didn’t depart workplace non-violently final time, you’ll recall. And please consider me once I say I are not looking for this to come back to violence, by anybody, at any level. As I’ve mentioned earlier than, trying to ‘win the stasis‘ – the Greek phrase for political violence – by out-violence-ing the opposition is a shedding recreation that simply tears aside the social cloth. However it’s not but 1933. It’s nonetheless 1932: the prepare has not left the station but.” • That is maybe probably the most reasoned case for the prosecution I’ve been. However the writer Eco’s well-known guidelines for fascism, and I’m scanning down it. Once I consider Democrats I test off #3 (“The Cult of Motion for Motion’s Sake” [Ukraine and Israel policy]), #4 (“Disagreement is Treason” [Censorship Industrial Complex, the organs of state security generally]), #5 (“Worry of Distinction” [“deplorables”]), #6 (“Attraction to a Pissed off Center Class” [PMC careerism]), #7 (“The Obsession with a Plot” [RussiaGate]), even #8 (“The Deceptively Robust/Weak Everlasting Opponent” [“President of all the People” vs. half the people are deplorables]), #10 (“Contempt for the Weak” [eugenicist Covid policy, genocide]), and #13 “Selective Populism”, and #14 “Newspeak” (id politics jargon). To be honest, the Democrats aren’t animated by #1 (“The Cult of Custom”), #2 (“The Rejection of Modernism”), #9 (“Life is Everlasting Warfare”), or, happily, #11 (“The Cult of Heroism”) or #12 “Machismo”). however I believe you’ll agree with me once I say that the fascist smorgasbord serves up a hearty feed for each events. I agree with Paxton on methodology: “What you should be learning is the milieu out of which they grew,” which this put up doesn’t do. So, granting the put up’s premise, 9/14 vs. 14/14? A Sophie’s Selection certainly! (Observe that on #10, genocide and eugenicist policiy, we’re what has already been completed, versus what is likely to be completed, sooner or later, a bog-standard Democrat trope.)

“Professional-Harris Tremendous PAC Raises Considerations About Specializing in Trump and Fascism” [New York Times]. “Mr. Trump’s former White Home chief of employees, Lt. Gen. John F. Kelly, mentioned final week that Mr. Trump “falls into the final definition of fascist, for certain,” a exceptional warning from such a top-ranking official, which Ms. Harris and her staff instantly echoed and amplified.” After all, Kelly would no extra lie than 51 intelligence officers would. Oh, wait…. Extra: “”Purely unfavourable assaults on Trump’s character are much less efficient than distinction messages that embody constructive particulars about Kamala Harris’s plans to deal with the wants of on a regular basis People,” the e-mail learn.” • Fascism is just not a matter of private character [bangs head on desk].

“Turning Pointe” [Harpers Bazaar]. “Along with her mane of lengthy brown hair and ramrod-straight posture, [Mary Helen] Bowers oozed ballerina: sleek, girlish, disciplined, barely prim—all the time smiling sweetly, even by her grueling exercises. ‘I imply, actually, she’s form of flawless,’ says author and model guide Ray Siegel. ‘I might have a tough time developing with a single unfavourable factor to say about her.’ Bowers’s Instagram feed is crowded with Sugar Plum Fairy pictures of toe sneakers, tutus, and her personal 4 younger youngsters (together with a photograph of herself in sleek arabesque whereas on the hospital in labor with certainly one of them). However two issues Bowers hardly ever posts about are her husband of 17 years, Paul Dans, and politics. One must have been paying very shut consideration to note when Dans was appointed to numerous posts inside the Trump administration. Or when, in 2020, Trump named Bowers to the board of trustees on the Kennedy Middle. And in recent times, even those that did discover didn’t make waves about it—not publicly, a minimum of. However this summer season, Ballet Lovely shoppers, significantly these with left-leaning views, acquired fairly a shock when Dans emerged as one thing of a star in his personal proper because the director of conservative suppose tank the Heritage Basis’s Presidential Transition Mission, higher often called Mission 2025.” And: “Not everybody has a exercise teacher whose husband is among the architects of one of the vital damaging right-wing-ideological social plans on pace dial, however a number of us have a QAnon sister-in-law or an antivax hairstylist. With a traditionally divisive election upon us, loads of People should determine: ” • If the Democrat base really believes this, it’s exhausting to see Kamala’s message of “unity” having a lot impact. Maybe that alien touchdown must occur in spite of everything. That’ll unify us!