2:00PM Water Cooler 11/14/2024 | bare capitalism

Date:


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, I had a Twitter debacle, and so this can be a little bit mild. Extra quickly. –lambert UPDATE All achieved!

Fowl Track of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Huge Bend NP–Chisos Basin Campground, Brewster, Texas, United States. “Singing lustily earlier than first mild.” Certainly! This spectrogram exhibits the virtuosity very clearly (not all do).

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In Case You Would possibly Miss…

  1. Trump transition: Biden assembly, Gabbard, Gaetz.
  2. Deploy the Blame Cannons! Democrat suicide?
  3. Boeing layoffs.
  4. “Is the Love Track Dying?”

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Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Capitol Seizure

“J6 Shocker: Cellphone firms dispute FBI testimony on pipe bombs suspect, key lawmaker reveals” [Just the News]. “lular carriers have informed Congress they possess intact cellphone utilization information from the neighborhood the place two pipe bombs had been planted in the course of the Jan. 6 incident, immediately disputing FBI testimony that brokers couldn’t determine a suspect as a result of the cellphone information was corrupted, a key Home chairman tells Simply the Information. The revelations from Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., the chairman of the Home Administration oversight subcommittee, provides new intrigue to a debate that has gripped Washington for practically 4 years: Why can’t the FBI with a lot proof and manpower determine the suspect who planted the explosive units on the Democrat and Republican Social gathering headquarters hours earlier than the Capitol was breached…. The issues concerning the unsolved Jan. 6 pipe bombs have been heightened by proof Loudermilk disclosed within the final yr displaying that then-Vice President-elect Kamala Harris was taken inside 10 yards of one of many reside bombs on the morning of Jan. 6 as a result of the Secret Service didn’t do an intensive safety sweep. As well as, Loudermilk additionally offered safety digicam video footage and nonetheless images of the suspect holding a tool that lawmakers imagine was a cellphone, additional making the cellphone information a possible case-solving piece of proof.” • We additionally don’t know who arrange the well-known gallows, or why it wasn’t taken down.

Biden Administration

“Particular counsel Jack Smith stands down in Trump categorised docs case, asks court docket to halt enchantment” [New York Post]. “Particular counsel Jack Smith requested a federal appellate court docket on Wednesday to halt his enchantment in President-elect Donald Trump’s categorised paperwork case, citing the outcomes of the 2024 election. ‘Because of the election held on November 5, 2024, one of many defendants on this case, Donald J. Trump, is anticipated to be licensed as President-elect on January 6, 2025, and inaugurated on January 20, 2025,’ Smith wrote to the Atlanta-based eleventh US Circuit Courtroom of Appeals. ‘The Authorities respectfully requests that the Courtroom maintain this enchantment in abeyance — and keep the deadline for the Authorities’s reply transient, which is presently due on November 15, 2024 — till December 2, 2024, to afford the Authorities time to evaluate this unprecedented circumstance and decide the suitable course going ahead according to Division of Justice coverage,’ the federal prosecutor added.”

Trump Transition

“Trump triumphantly returns to White Home as Biden pledges ‘easy transition’” [Washington Times]. “‘I look ahead … to having a easy transition. We’ll do every part we are able to to be sure you’re accommodated what you want,’ a smiling Mr. Biden stated as he congratulated a person who had relentlessly attacked his psychological capability and branded his administration as a ‘catastrophe.’ Mr. Trump additionally pledged that the transition will probably be ‘as easy as it might get.’ ‘Politics is hard, and in lots of circumstances, it’s not a pleasant world, however it’s a pleasant world at the moment,’ Mr. Trump stated. They shook palms in entrance of a roaring hearth within the Oval Workplace.” • What was burning within the hearth? The Epstein tapes and a duplicate of The Enabling Act?

“Donald Trump reveals solely to The Submit what he and Biden spoke about at DC assembly” [New York Post]. “President-elect Donald Trump informed The Submit Wednesday that he and President Biden “each actually loved seeing one another” once they sat down for a historic post-election get-together within the Oval Workplace. ‘You recognize, it’s been a protracted, it’s been a protracted slog,’ the 78-year-old stated throughout a cellphone interview as he left Washington. ‘It’s been lots of work on each side and he did an excellent job with respect to campaigning and every part else. We actually had a very good assembly.’ Trump stated Biden was ‘very gracious.’ ‘We acquired to know one another once more.’”

BFFs:

A lot for all that “our democracy” hoo-ha, then. Additionally too “fascism.” Pricey Lord, these individuals simply activate a dime!

“Biden, Trump Die 2 Minutes Aside Holding Fingers” [The Onion]. “‘Solely minutes earlier than their deaths, they requested that their hospital beds be pushed collectively—it’s like they knew what was coming,’ stated Marlene Kato, a nurse who confirmed that medical employees at Walter Reed Medical Middle, the place the 2 presidents spent their remaining hours collectively, had been surprised when Biden died at 8:05 p.m. and Trump adopted at 8:07. ‘They had been rivals in life, however they got here along with love in demise. They had been each very weak, however turned their heads to face one another and smiled. Biden stated, ‘You had been the one one who ever acquired me,’ and Trump stated, ‘I do know.’ I began tearing up proper there after which. It was simply so lovely. Then they used their remaining breaths to request a shared burial plot on the Trump Nationwide Golf Membership in Bedminster.’ At press time, a coroner’s report revealed that Trump had strangled Biden after which succumbed to a coronary heart assault two minutes later.”• Oh.

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“Donald Trump Jokes He ‘Can’t Get Rid’ of Elon Musk Amid Rising Affect” [Newsweek]. “”Elon received’t go residence. I can’t eliminate him—no less than till I don’t like him,” Trump joked, acknowledging Musk’s rising presence in his interior circle.” And: “Throughout his week-long keep at Mar-a-Lago, Musk has bonded with the president-elect’s household, posing for images and taking part in golf, whereas additionally becoming a member of calls with international leaders, together with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He’s additionally scheduled to satisfy Argentina’s President Javier Milei at Mar-a-Lago on Thursday. Though the president-elect has usually stated that Musk doubtless received’t tackle a full-time place as a consequence of his different commitments, Musk—who as soon as vowed to remain out of politics—seems to be having fun with his new function.”

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“Trump’s decide for prime intel job has been accused of ‘traitorous’ parroting of Russian propaganda” [NBC]. • The spooks appear sad.

“Tulsi Gabbard’s Nomination Is a Nationwide-Safety Threat” [Tom Nichols, The Atlantic]. • As do By no means Trumper nationwide safety goons.

“The Curious Case of Tulsi Gabbard: Is She a Russian Asset or a Dupe?” [Jonathan V. Last, The Bulwark]. “As a result of for a decade Gabbard has appeared and behaved like a Russian asset.” • An asset? With a handler? I’ll solely imagine this if 51 intelligence officers inform me so. (Sorry to go all heuristic on this, I needs to be assessing all this on the deserves, however sheesh.)

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“Gaetz resigns from Congress — probably skirting long-awaited Ethics report” [Politico]. “Dozens of GOP lawmakers indicated that management had informed them about Gaetz’s resignation earlier than Johnson made the announcement. Many had been excitedly spreading the information, glad to be rid of the architect of Kevin McCarthy’s speakership ouster. Gaetz didn’t attend the GOP’s hours-long assembly close to the Capitol on Wednesday, the place Republicans elected their management slate. Johnson stated Gaetz had resigned so abruptly as a result of he knew how lengthy it might take to fill the seat if he turns into lawyer common…. Different GOP Home colleagues imagine his resolution is definitely tied to an Ethics Committee report investigating a number of allegations together with that Gaetz engaged in intercourse with a minor, which they imagine was poised to be launched in a matter of days. Gaetz has repeatedly denied wrongdoing and has sought to assault the panel probing varied allegations in opposition to him. If Gaetz is now not a member of the Home, the report doubtless received’t be formally launched, although it may leak. One Home Republican, granted anonymity to talk candidly, tied Gaetz’s resignation to making an attempt to ‘stymie the ethics investigation that’s popping out in a single week.’” • It appears to have been fairly successfully stymied already, however no matter.

“Trump Nominates ‘Khanservative’ Matt Gaetz as Legal professional Common” [Matt Stoller, BIG]. Stoller adopted anti-trust in Congress intently. Right here’s a telling anecdate about Gaetz:

At one level in the course of the markup, at 3am or so, [Democrat David Cicilline, actually an anti-monoply ally] allowed an modification that punched a loophole in one of many payments. The modification would have let large tech companies buy firms for lower than $50 million in worth with out a lot scrutiny. It wasn’t an enormous deal; everybody was exhausted and needed to only transfer alongside. However at that second, Gaetz chimed in and stated he opposed it. He didn’t win. However he was the one member in both get together to say he needed no loopholes, irrespective of how small, for giant tech.

When the highlight is on, most individuals don’t need to seem craven. However when the highlight is just not on, when it’s 3 am and the one people who find themselves paying consideration are highly effective lobbyists from organized cash, properly, that’s when somebody tells you what their priorities are. And in that case, Gaetz stated he’d combat for each inch, even when he would get no credit score, even when everybody was drained, and even when he was going to lose, and in dropping, upset a number of firms value a trillion {dollars} apiece.

The entire piece is value studying in full, provided that Gaetz appears sound on Lina Khan, protection reform, and surveillance (and really referred to as for Snowden to be pardoned). So no surprise highly effective forces need to take him down.

“Matt Gaetz as soon as confronted a intercourse trafficking investigation by the Justice Division he may now lead” [Associated Press]. “The federal intercourse trafficking investigation that started beneath Legal professional Common Invoice Barr throughout Trump’s first time period centered on allegations that Gaetz and onetime political ally Joel Greenberg paid underage women and escorts or supplied them items in alternate for intercourse. Greenberg, a fellow Republican who served because the tax collector in Florida’s Seminole County, admitted as a part of a plea take care of prosecutors in 2021 that he paid girls and an underage woman to have intercourse with him and different males. The boys weren’t recognized in court docket paperwork when he pleaded responsible. Greenberg was sentenced in late 2022 to 11 years in jail. Federal investigators scrutinized a visit that Gaetz took to the Bahamas with a bunch of ladies and a physician who donated to his marketing campaign, and whether or not the ladies had been paid or acquired items to have intercourse with the lads, in accordance with individuals accustomed to the matter who weren’t allowed to publicly focus on the investigation. Prosecutors additionally investigated whether or not Gaetz and his associates tried to safe authorities jobs for among the girls, and scrutinized Gaetz’s connections to the medical marijuana sector, together with whether or not his associates sought to affect laws Gaetz sponsored, the individuals have stated. Gaetz had remained beneath investigation by the Home Ethics Committee over allegations that he was a part of a scheme that led to the intercourse trafficking of a 17-year-old woman. The committee started its assessment of Gaetz in April 2021, , and renewed its work shortly after Gaetz introduced that the Justice Division had ended a intercourse trafficking investigation. Over the summer season, the committee offered an uncommon public replace into its long-running investigation, saying its assessment now contains whether or not Gaetz engaged in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, accepted improper items and sought to hinder authorities investigations of his conduct. Gaetz has categorically denied all of the allegations earlier than the committee.” • Properly, I suippose we are able to count on a leak shortly. (One purpose I apply a hermeneutic of suspicion to intercourse scandals is that lengthy, way back, an Illinois Republican acquired taken down over intercourse membership allegations in a set of mysteriously launched divorce papers, and the Democrat went on to win. I centered my aghastitude on the scandal, however the successful Democrat was this dude named Barack Obama, who was simply one other elected on the time.)

2024 Submit Mortem

Deploy the Blame Cannons!

“The Democrats Dedicated Suicide This 12 months” [James K. Galbraith, Project Syndicate]. ” Trump’s remaining tally will probably be solely barely larger than his 2020 complete of 74.2 million votes. For Harris, although, we’ll see a disastrous decline from the 81.2 million votes that Joe Biden acquired, and this even if the voting-eligible inhabitants has elevated by 4 million. In different phrases, Trump gained virtually no assist in his four-year marketing campaign for redemption. If all of the voters had been the identical, one may even say that he merely acquired his 2020 supporters to vote for him once more. In actual fact, about 13 million individuals (most of them eligible voters) have died, and about 17 million have change into voter-eligible, implying that Trump changed his losses about one-for-one, whereas a decline in turnout value the Democrats practically ten million votes. These numbers forged grave doubt on explanations of the end result that concentrate on financial circumstances, and nonetheless extra on the affect of promoting and get-out-the-vote campaigns. The outcomes additionally deflate analyses based mostly on the ‘American voter.’… .” Extra: “After we have now dominated out the implausible, no less than three cheap conjectures stay. The primary issues the circumstances of voting. In 2020, owing to the pandemic, voting was extra accessible than ever earlier than…. In 2024, some – although not all – of those expedients now not existed, after already declining in 2022. It’s normal in America to make use of the construction of voting to assist decide the result: lengthy strains on the polls discourage turnout, particularly amongst working individuals with restricted time.” Sure, the distinctive competence of the fashionable political get together. Extra: “A second believable clarification issues voter registration. College students and low-income minority residents transfer extra often and normally should re-register each time their handle adjustments. It’s extremely possible that this burden falls extra closely on Democrats.” And now: “The third speculation activates the long-standing divisions throughout the Democratic Social gathering…. The Clintons and Obamas are presently the de facto heads of the centrist faction, and Biden and Harris had been their appointees…. The Democratic management engineered this case and should subsequently want it. Win or lose, it stays answerable for an unlimited shadow equipment: consultants, pollsters, lobbyists, fundraisers, key positions on Capitol Hill. Any concessions to new forces throughout the get together would undermine this management, whereas losses to Republicans don’t. The Democratic management would far moderately lose an election or two – and even change into a everlasting minority get together – than open the get together to individuals it can not management. The 2024 election was, subsequently, a suicide. The Democratic management was, at greatest, detached to the erosion of voting entry, negligent in retaining 2020’s new voters, and proactive in guaranteeing the abstention of what little stays of its ‘left’ wing. It tried to cowl this up, as traditional, with celeb endorsements and identification politics. As traditional, it didn’t work. However the get together’s mandarins and their apparatchiks will probably be round subsequent time to strive once more.” • I may quarrel with causality (“financial circumstances” is definitely a little bit slippery), however this conforms in virtually each respect to my priors (besides one ought to hardly go away the spooks, the press, and the NGOs out of the “huge shadow equipment”). So I prefer it 🙂

“Trump’s Win Leaves Democrats Asking: The place Are Our Bro Whisperers?” [New York Times]. “[S]ome youthful Democrats stated a broader technique shift was so as, particularly by way of how politicians method nontraditional media. Celeb appearances and paid endorsements from influencers come throughout as transactional and inauthentic, they stated. ‘It’s last-second, ‘Let’s get Beyoncé onstage to say we assist girls,’ however that doesn’t transfer anybody who wasn’t already going to vote Democrat,’ stated Ayem Kpenkaan, a liberal content material creator who goes by @bocxtop on social media. As Democrats had been casting about for explanations for Mr. Trump’s victory, posts by Mr. Kpenkaan, 25, blaming ‘alpha male podcasts’ for males’s rightward shift went viral. He instructed that Democrats wanted liberal variations of media platforms which can be culturally right-leaning however not inherently political — like Barstool Sports activities, the favored sports activities model that has change into so enmeshed in on-line tradition that it has coined a phrase, Barstool conservatism. ‘We have now to make entertaining, partaking content material that males need to watch and care about,” Mr. Kpenkaan stated. “Then, over time, you pepper in additional progressive views.” • “Content material creator” sounds one thing like a producer of “slop feedstock” to me, however what do I do know?

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“The State-Degree Variations Between the Presidential and Senate Races” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. The Summary: “Break up outcomes between presidential and Senate outcomes noticed a resurgence in 2024, as no less than 4 Donald Trump-won states despatched Democrats to the Senate. Republicans nonetheless took the bulk within the Senate as a result of whereas Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) carried out notably higher than Kamala Harris, they didn’t achieve this by sufficient to carry their seats. Throughout most key Senate races, Senate Democrats ran higher than Harris in rural elements of their states however had been comparatively weak in some suburban counties. In certainly one of Harris’s greatest states, Maryland, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) stood out as Republicans’ prime overperformer, though Harris’s 26-point margin within the state was an excessive amount of for him to beat.” • Helpful map:

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Transmission: H5N1

“Fowl flu: Canadian teenager is critically sick with new genotype” [BMJ]. “A Canadian adolescent is in a crucial situation in a British Columbia hospital after turning into contaminated with a brand new genotype of H5N1 extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The affected person, who has not been publicly recognized, developed conjunctivitis on 2 November, adopted by fever and coughing. Whereas these signs have been widespread in individuals contaminated with H5N1 chicken flu in North America—till now, all US circumstances—{the teenager} in Canada then developed acute respiratory misery syndrome and was admitted to intensive care on 8 November. ”

“Canada: PHAC Confirms HPAI H5N1 Genotype D1.1 In B.C. Human An infection” [Avian Flu Diary]. “We now have the reply to no less than 2 of our questions relating to the H5 virus an infection in a teen from British Columbia; in accordance with a press release from the PHAC (h/t FluTrackers) the subtype has been confirmed to be H5N1 and the genotype is D1.1. ” Extra on D.1.1:

Maybe we must always give consideration to invoking the precautionary precept:

We actually shouldn’t play “let ‘er rip” with H5N1, however that’s what we’re doing.

Scientific Communication

Let’s do brunch over at Blue Sky:

Media

“Covid grifters are (nonetheless) mistaken: the construction of esoteric data” [ClosedForm]. “I may take a weathered want path right here and argue that these analyses are politically harmful along with being ignorant; that they misidentify the culprits, misunderstand the issues, level individuals galvanized to ‘become involved’ down dead-end paths. Another person could make these arguments. I need to discuss one thing weirder: the funky thread of esotericism working by way of the attractive tapestry of the Covid grifter neighborhood and thru its related epistemological stance…. The Covid grifters miss (‘miss’ is a bit passive) various explanations as a result of they assume that whether it is printed in a scientific paper, it should be true and should verify their current perception. It is a grave misunderstanding of what the scientific literature is. It’s not a repository of reality claims. It’s a physique of labor produced by individuals working in a selected political financial system, one which incentivizes publishing ‘statistically vital’ findings (which aren’t the identical factor as really vital or significant findings), and actually incentivizes publishing something about sizzling subjects like, say, a devastating pandemic.”

Elite Maleficence

The UK, however yikes:

“There’s a Higher Solution to Speak About Fluoride, Vaccines and Uncooked Milk” [Emily Oster, New York Times]. “Contemplate three subjects of a lot public dialogue: measles vaccines, uncooked milk and water fluoridation. All three signify fault strains between what is alleged by public well being businesses and by Mr. Kennedy and different skeptics. The place their messages differ is within the energy and complexity of the proof…. My suggestion is that when requested about these subjects, well being consultants present this degree of element. Merely saying that vaccines are good and uncooked milk is dangerous misses specifics that folks discover necessary. Folks usually do their analysis, and in the event that they really feel the dangers of uncooked milk have been exaggerated, it might erode their belief. Now maybe that particular person is extra more likely to mistrust the vaccine messaging, too. With extra data, we offer room for individuals to drink uncooked milk but in addition vaccinate their youngsters. Which is, principally, an affordable selection. Offering context additionally helps individuals make sense of latest data…. Being extra nuanced won’t be simple for public well being businesses. They should put extra belief of their viewers…. If well being consultants share a extra balanced message about uncooked milk, extra individuals would possibly drink uncooked milk. And, sure, that does entail some elevated danger. I’m arguing that in alternate it’s possible you’ll get larger measles vaccination. It’s not an ideal state of affairs, however it might imply that fewer individuals get sick and die. Which, in any case, needs to be the final word aim.” • The issue right here is that Oster, an economist, has monitor file:

Identical to all of the pro-Iraq pundits, nonetheless making financial institution, twenty years later…

HICPAC assembly at the moment and tomorrow:

I apologize for not attending to this earlier; mentally, I’m nonetheless digging out from the election. Listed here are the drafts HICPAC has been working from:

For the most recent on HICPAC, see NC right here.

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TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC November 4 Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):

Variants [3] CDC November 9 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 2

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, information November 12: Nationwide [6] CDC November 8:

Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens November 11: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 9:

Vacationers Information
Positivity[9] CDC October 21: Variants[10] CDC October 21:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2:

LEGEND

1) for charts new at the moment; all others usually are not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Excellent news!

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* nonetheless common. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has achieved a fantastic job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Truly improved; it’s now one of many few charts to indicate your entire course of the pandemic to the current day.

[7] (Walgreens) Down.

[8] (Cleveland) Down.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Down.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Now XEC.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of people submitting for unemployment advantages within the US fell by 4,000 from the earlier week to 217,000 on the interval ending November ninth, the least since Might, and firmly under market expectations of a rise to 223,000. In flip, excellent unemployment claims fell by 19,000 to 1,873,000 within the final week of October. The outcomes prolonged the view that the US labor market stays at traditionally robust ranges regardless of the aggressive tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve within the final quarters, including leeway for the central financial institution to sluggish the tempo of financial loosening ought to inflation stay stubbornly excessive.”

Inflation: “United States Producer Costs Closing Demand Much less Meals and Power YoY” [Trading Economics]. “The annual core producer inflation within the US which excludes costs for meals and power, rose to three.1% in October 2024, following an upwardly revised 2.9% within the prior month and barely above market forecasts of three%.”

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Manufacturing: “Pink slips arrive for laid-off Boeing staff as firm begins 10% lower” [Seattle Times]. “The cuts usually are not anticipated to hit members of the Machinists union, however they did have an effect on members of the engineering union, SPEEA.” • Received’t they want engineers to design a brand new aircraft?

Manufacturing: “Boeing hires Northrop government to take over Pentagon tasks” [Reuters]. ” Boeing stated on Thursday it employed former Northrop Grumman government Colin Miller to move its Phantom Works analysis arm throughout the firm’s protection enterprise unit. Miller’s hiring as common supervisor of Phantom Works at Boeing Protection, House and Safety (BDS) had been within the works earlier than the arrival of latest Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg. Boeing’s protection enterprise has been struggling beneath the load of budget-busting older contracts, however Ortberg stated in October that the unit which makes helicopters, fighter jets and missiles stays “core” to the corporate’s future.” • To not triage them, then?

Tech: “Mark Zuckerberg Desires to Feed You Extra AI Slop” [Bloomberg]. “Prepare, people. In a lot the identical means that quick movies and viral content material took over feeds as soon as populated with posts from our family and friends, the subsequent wave of content material will probably be machine-generated. A development from private to viral content material and now to AI content material looks like a dystopian path for a social media agency that’s lengthy framed itself as “connecting individuals.” However Zuckerberg calls this new pattern ‘promising.’ His view is just not uncommon within the business. I’ve spoken to a number of know-how executives who imagine that AI-generated content material — which may make up as a lot as 90% of content material on the Web, in accordance with one wild estimate — will probably be accepted as the brand new regular. AI-generated movies will ultimately be referred to as ‘movies,’ the pondering goes.” • Good to see “AI Slop” make it right into a Bloomberg headline.

Tech: “Misplaced In The Future” [Ed Zitron, Where’s Your Ed At]. “[E]verybody is affected by the growth-at-all-costs Rot Economic system, as a result of everyone is utilizing know-how, on a regular basis, and the know-how in query is getting worse. This election cycle noticed greater than 25 billion textual content messages despatched to potential voters, and seemingly each web site was crammed stuffed with random election promoting. Our telephones are beset with notifications making an attempt to ‘growth-hack’ us into doing issues that firms need, our apps stuffed with microtransactions, our web sites slower and harder-to-use with infinite calls for of our emails and our cellphone numbers and the necessity to log again in as a result of they couldn’t probably lose a greenback to someone who dared to devour their content material without spending a dime. Our social networks are so algorithmically charged that they barely present us the issues we would like them to anymore, with executives devoted to filling our feeds with AI-generated slop as a result of regardless of being the buyer, we’re additionally the income mechanism. Our search engines like google and yahoo do much less as a method of creating us use them extra, our courting apps have change into automobiles for personal fairness so as to add a toll to falling in love, our video video games are continually nagging us to provide them more cash, and regardless of it costing cash and being connected to our account, we don’t really personal any of the streaming media we buy. We’re drowning in spam — each in our emails and on our telephones — and at this level in our lives we’re most likely agreed to three million pages value of privateness insurance policies permitting firms to make use of our data as they see match. And these are points that hit every part we do, on a regular basis, continually, unrelentingly.” • You say “unrelentingly” like that’s a foul factor.

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In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 63 Greed (earlier shut: 67 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 58 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 14 at 1:45:43 PM ET.

Musical Interlude

“Is the Love Track Dying?” [The Pudding]. Horridly mobile-friendly, however data-driven and well worth the hassle. Right here is one useful (interactive) chart:

(Seranade = “You’re keen on somebody, and so they love you again”; heartache = “However what occurs in case you love them, however they only… don’t? Possibly you broke up, or possibly it’s simply unrequited.”

So how do readers reply the query within the title?

Zeitgeist Watch

“Jesse Sheidlower solutions our questions on ‘The F-Phrase’” [Strong Language]. “Lexicographer Jesse Sheidlower has been researching and writing about f*ck for a f*cking very long time: practically three a long time.” This caught my eye: “You cite the Web Archive as a invaluable useful resource this time round. Any specifics you may share? [SHEIDLOWER:] I can’t overstate the significance of the Web Archive; it may not have been doable to do that version with out it. It holds an immense of quantity of fabric about every part, so that you don’t simply get mainstream fiction (which is itself, after all, very helpful), however all types of stuff you don’t usually consider. For instance, highschool and school yearbooks are an immensely invaluable supply for casual writing, however hardly anybody has used them for linguistic analysis earlier than. I quote over a dozen yearbooks, all from the Web Archive, on this version, in lots of circumstances offering the earliest instance we have now: “f*ck ’em if they’ll’t take a joke,” from Baltimore in 1971; “f*ck you and the horse you rode in on” in Massachusetts in 1964; MFWIC ‘motherf*cker what’s in cost’ from the US Air Power Academy in 1963. This materials simply can’t be discovered anyplace else.” • Good factor the Web Archive is just not in any means weak.

Gallery

I needs to be extra of a fan of O’Keefe than I’m:

I didn’t decide this one intentionally, it simply got here throughout my feed. One thing concerning the precise paint…

Healthcare

I can’t vouch for this, however it does seem to be one thing to be careful for:

Have any readers skilled this?

Our Famously Free Press

“The Onion Says It Has Purchased Infowars, Alex Jones’s Website, Out of Chapter” [New York Times]. “The Onion stated that the bid was sanctioned by the households of the victims of the mass capturing at Sandy Hook Elementary College, who in 2022 received a $1.4 billion defamation lawsuit in opposition to Mr. Jones and his firm, Free Speech Methods…. The publication plans to reintroduce Infowars in January as a parody of itself, mocking ‘bizarre web personalities’ like Mr. Jones who site visitors in misinformation and well being dietary supplements, Ben Collins, the chief government of The Onion’s mum or dad firm, World Tetrahedron, stated in an interview.” • Needs to be difficult!

Information of the Wired

“The mind summons deep sleep for therapeutic from life-threatening damage” [Nature]. “Immune cells rush to the mind and promote deep sleep after a coronary heart assault, in accordance with a brand new study1 involving each mice and people. This heavy slumber helps restoration by easing irritation within the coronary heart, the research discovered…. The implications of the research transcend coronary heart assault, says Rachel Rowe, a specialist in sleep and irritation on the College of Colorado Boulder. ‘For any type of damage, your physique’s pure response can be that can assist you sleep so your physique can heal,’ she says.”• Hmm. Makes you surprise about different types of irritation and sleep.

* * *

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are effective! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Carla:

Carla writes: “The final of our 2024 anemones.”

But once more, sort readers, I faucet the signal: Extra plant photographs, please. My stock continues to be extra nervous-making than I would love it to be. Do you’ve photographs to ship in, particularly of autumn produce or winter tasks? I get pleasure from them very a lot, and I’m certain different readers do too!

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t categorical the views of the Bare Capitalism website. If you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

If you happen to hate PayPal, you may e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on the way to ship a examine. Thanks!

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This entry was posted in Visitor Submit, Water Cooler on by Lambert Strether.

About Lambert Strether

Readers, I’ve had a correspondent characterize my views as reasonable cynical. Let me briefly clarify them. I imagine in common applications that present concrete materials advantages, particularly to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime instance, however tuition-free school and a Submit Workplace Financial institution additionally fall beneath this heading. So do a Jobs Assure and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can ship on such applications, as a result of the 2 are completely different flavors of neoliberalism (“As a result of markets”). I don’t a lot care concerning the “ism” that delivers the advantages, though whichever one does need to put widespread humanity first, versus markets. Could possibly be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t a lot care, so long as the advantages are delivered.

To me, the important thing subject — and for this reason Medicare for All is at all times first with me — is the tens of 1000’s of extra “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton research, and different latest research. That giant physique rely makes Medicare for All, on the very least, an ethical and strategic crucial. And that degree of struggling and natural harm makes the issues of identification politics — even the worthy combat to assist the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — vibrant shiny objects by comparability. Therefore my frustration with the information move — presently for my part the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the opposite by out-of-power liberals and their allies within the State and within the press — a information move that continually forces me to give attention to issues that I regard as of secondary significance to the surplus deaths. What sort of political financial system is it that halts and even reverses the will increase in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I’m additionally very hopeful that the persevering with destruction of each get together institutions will open the area for voices supporting applications much like these I’ve listed; let’s name such voices “the left.” Volatility creates alternative, particularly if the Democrat institution, which places markets first and opposes all such applications, isn’t allowed to get again into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I really like the tactical degree, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been running a blog about it day by day for fourteen years, however every part I write has this angle in the back of it.













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