By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Sure, I’ll do an election night time reside weblog tomorrow! –lambert
Chicken Tune of the Day
Returning to the Northern Mockingbirds. Love the binomial: Mimus polyglottos.
Northern Mockingbird, 71 Maltby Highway East, Wellington, Ontario, Canada. “Superb mimicking talents of varied songbirds; singing persistently from completely different perches (prime of a tree or a bush, wire); singing whereas in flight as nicely; transferring from one perch to a different fairly often; very vocal and lively, chasing different birds away from its territory esp American Robins; wonderful mimicking talents; nice singer though I’m unsure if I would really like it each morning subsequent to my bed room window. So intense :).”
In Case You May Miss…
- As we speak’s RCP polling: Kamala closing.
- Dueling Op-Eds on Kamala v. Trump.
- Boeing vote right this moment.
- Information Guild tech employees strike at NYT on election day.
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Countdown!
NEW As we speak’s RCP Ballot Averages:
Lambert right here: If we ignore the idea of margin of error, right this moment’s survey, mixed with Friday’s, says that Kamala is closing (and the Blue Wall is hers once more). Recall additionally that the polls lag: If Huge Mo is on Kamala’s website, she may forward by now. Then once more, if you happen to have a look at the electoral school outcomes with the Toss-Up states turned crimson or blue, Trump is steady and forward. (I’m “dancing with the one which brung ya” on methodology, right here; I’ve watched RCP persistently all yr, hoping the typical would defeat polarization and manipulation, and we’ll know in some unspecified time in the future, nicely, within the close to future whether or not that was an applicable alternative.) In fact, we on the surface would possibly as nicely be analyzing the entrails of birds after we attempt to predict what’s going to occur to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, particularly, who will decide the end result of the election however would possibly as nicely be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher knowledge, and have the state of affairs as below management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * “Column: The case towards Donald Trump is evident. Right here’s the case for Kamala Harris” [Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times]. Listed below are six causes Harris can be a greater president:.. She has promised to hunt consensus and compromise, two phrases Trump has hardly ever uttered. We may use a dose of each…. Harris’ financial insurance policies are much less prone to produce runaway inflation and deficits than Trump’s…. Harris has provided severe proposals to deal with three urgent issues: housing, childcare and elder care…. Harris says U.S. international coverage ought to be primarily based on robust alliances with different democracies, not cynical partnerships with tyrants like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping… And, in fact, she that ladies could make choices about abortion with out state governments endangering their lives.” • “Would work to make sure” = “battle for” = “received’t get the job carried out,” as Democrats have did not do on Roe for a technology. McManus isn’t dumb; the Democrats may abolish the filibuster and codify Roe when the Congress opens and the Senate units its guidelines. Did Doyle get a dedication from Kamala on this? And even ask the query? No. So it received’t get carried out.
* * * Kamala (D): Historical past rhymes:
So, they narcissistically changed “we” with “she?”
That is actually “it’s her flip.” https://t.co/mrIm6AFHGK
— Briahna Pleasure Grey (@briebriejoy) November 4, 2024
2008 – 2024 isn’t a fast decay, in historic phrases.
Kamala (D): “35 yr nationwide safety knowledgeable”:
The girl stricken with TDS is none aside from Patti Morrissey, a former senior DoD and ODNI official. Sadly this illness is pervasive throughout the nationwide safety equipment, and that degrades belief in these necessary authorities establishments. https://t.co/wDtwWfFrqc
— Ezra A. Cohen (@EzraACohen) November 3, 2024
Now a authorities contractor (naturally). ODNI is likely one of the organs of state safety concerned in election validation. I’m wondering who many levels of separation between Morrissey, Jessica Brandt at ODNI’s Overseas Malign Affect Heart, and DHS’s Jen Easterly at CISA. Not very many, I might wager. Maybe they go to the identical yoga class, or some such.
* * *
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Social Norming
I genuinely don’t perceive how we cannot defend our kids. What’s going on right here?
It’s like a zombie film in regards to the collapse of civilization.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing facility Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured items within the US fell by 0.5% from the earlier month to $584.2 billion in September of 2024, extending the revised 0.8% decline in August and loosely in keeping with market expectations of a 0.4% drop.”
Manufacturing: “The Boeing strike vote; the United Airways instance” [Air Insight]. “The pause in MAX deliveries disrupted United’s community planning. Airways promote seats 360 days out, so planning is crucial, and supply disruptions trigger chaos. It’s a delicate steadiness, and we see repeatedly the trade loses steadiness shortly. It at all times recovers, however that restoration invariably means individuals are caught someplace they don’t need to be, with airways bleeding cash as they recuperate.” • So the IAM nonetheless has some leverage past the money stream drawback Wall Road solved for Boeing.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Had a Huge Week. This One Is Even Larger” [Barron’s]. “The brand new labor contract provide will increase base wages by about $1.1 billion yearly over the lifetime of the contract, in response to Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu.” That’s all? Extra: “Administration must offset will increase with increased productiveness. Boeing not too long ago introduced it will lay off some 17,000 individuals which can assist offset price will increase.” • However not govt bonuses or inventory buybacks. Naturally.
As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 44 Worry (earlier shut: 48 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 60 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 4 at 1:09:25 PM ET. Fairly a swing.
Rapture Index: Closes up one on Curiosity Charges. “Long run charges are transferring increased” [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 182. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is nice.) •
Gallery
Millet is nice. Discover his try and catch work (“switch of vitality by a drive appearing on an object as it’s displaced”) in paint, particularly with the center determine’s raised arm. (John Berger noticed the identical factor with a potato in mid-air, being dropped right into a furrow by a peasant.)
The Washerwomen pic.twitter.com/rbJjkoraSY
— Jean-Francois Millet (@artistmillet) October 24, 2024
I want there have been an Impressionist Millet (or a Cubist Millet) however AFAIK there may be not.
Permaculture
“Utilizing Leaves For Insulation Round My Studio” [Full Moon Fiber Art]. “I began yesterday and completed raking leaves right this moment. I crammed up 16 forty gallons baggage with leaves and put them on three sides of my studio. The one facet with out leaves is the south dealing with the place the muse is so low it’s hardly seen…. And it’s an excellent use of the leaves. Within the spring I’ll burn them in my equinox bon fireplace. The luggage are heavy obligation, so I’ll save those that survive the winter and use them once more subsequent yr.” • I’ve carried out this and it actually works; transformed the coldest room in the home to the warmest. I recycle the leaves for mulch. The leaves need to be dry. In all probability not too late for these of you in chilly climates!
Class Warfare
“New York Instances Tech Staff Go on Strike on Eve of 2024 Election, Alleging Unfair Labor Practices” [Variety]. “The Instances Tech Guild represents greater than 600 engineers, knowledge managers, designers, software program builders and tech personnel who develop and run the programs that energy the paper’s web site and apps. If the strike continues into Tuesday, will probably be the primary to coincide with a presidential election within the NewsGuild for the reason that 1964 Detroit newspaper strike, in response to the union…. Not one of the Instances’ writers or editors who’re protecting the elections are straight concerned within the Instances Tech Guild strike. A spokesperson for the Instances stated the corporate has ‘strong plans in place to make sure that we’re capable of fulfill our mission and serve our readers.’” • IOW, scabs.
“Help Hanging New York Instances Tech Staff by Breaking Your Wordle Streak” [Gizmodo]. “The New York Instances’s software program engineers are on strike proper now and so they have a easy request for readers: don’t play Wordle or the crossword puzzle this week. The Instances Tech Guild represents greater than 600 tech employees who keep The Instances’ digital new empire. The New York Instances is a storied information group but it surely’s additionally a tech firm. It has thrived when so many different information shops have failed, partly, as a result of its pivot to digital was sensible and strong. Video games like Wordle, Spelling Bee, Connections, and the Crossword drive enormous numbers to the Instances. The NYT Cooking App is beloved by many and brings in loads of income. However all that tech requires a wealth of backend help. In 2022, the Instances’ tech employees unionized and so they’ve been negotiating with administration ever since. They signaled again in September that they had been ready to strike and would do it round election day. In accordance with a press release from the Guild, the present ache factors between it and administration are: return to workplace mandates, limits on subcontracting, pay and fairness, and “simply trigger” job protections. Staff desire a provision of their contract that might guarantee staff are solely terminated for misconduct or related causes. ‘We’ve been sounding the alarm for weeks and cleared our schedules to get this contract carried out earlier than the election week deadline,’ Susan DeCarava, the president of The NewsGuild of New York stated in a press release. ‘As employees and subscribers, we’re disheartened that the Instances is prepared to gamble with its election protection to keep away from agreeing to a good and simply contract. We stay able to discount and sit up for reaching an settlement our members at Instances Tech Guild will ratify.’ Hanging the day earlier than the election is a calculated transfer designed to place most strain on the paper at a time when its readership is spiking. The vaunted ‘election needle’ is a staple of the Instances’ protection and it doesn’t run with out the help of back-end tech employees.”
“Diddy makes shock try and silence grand jury witness who made bombshell claims about rapper’s ‘freak-off’ events” [Daily Mail]. “Attorneys for Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs have made a stunning try and silence a grand jury witness who has made bombshell claims in regards to the rapper’s so-called ‘freak-off’ events. Attorneys Marc Agnifilo and Tony Geragos submitted a letter to the federal choose overseeing the hip hop mogul’s intercourse trafficking and racketeering case, asking him to expedite their movement for a gag order on witnesses, citing a ‘deluge of improper pretrial publicity,’ ABC Information studies. It says the statements made by sure people are ‘undermining Mr. Combs’ proper to a good trial and the integrity of the grand jury proceedings.’ The attorneys hit out particularly at Combs’ former pal, Courtney Burgess, who has claimed in a number of interviews he has seen movies of main celebrities being ‘victimized’ at Diddy’s infamous ‘freak-off’ events.” • I don’t care about “celebrities.” How about executives or politicians? Folks with actual energy?
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired right this moment.
Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are superb! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Wukchumni:
Wukchumni writes: “North Rim of the Grand Canyon.”
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