2:00PM Water Cooler 11/5/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, brunch was fairly one thing in the present day, so please forgive any solecisms or infelicities. –lambert

Hen Tune of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, The Celery Fields, Sarasota, Florida, United States.

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

1. Election 2024 roundup.
2. Gram Parson’s birthday.
3. Welding.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Outcomes: Useful map:

Definitely Trump’s strong win within the in style vote is legitimizing, and makes the form of spook manipulations I used to be involved about, like a shade revolution, far much less possible, although the character and position of the Intelligence Group as an extra-constitutional entity stays a query. (Sadly, CIA Democrat Elissa Slotkin could but pull out a win.)

Trump’s in style vote win was additionally surprising:

One factor the prediction markets missed:

The low-probability final result of Trump turning into the primary Republican to win the favored vote in 20 years ended up taking place.https://t.co/32J4qJVqZx

— Axios (@axios) November 6, 2024

“Harris to concede Wednesday afternoon” [Associated Press]. “Vice President Kamala Harris will ship a concession speech Wednesday at 4 p.m., her workplace introduced. Harris will communicate at Howard College, her alma mater in Washington, the place her supporters watched returns Tuesday night time earlier than being despatched dwelling after midnight as President-elect Donald Trump pulled forward in battleground state outcomes.” • Within the election Stay Weblog, I revealed a schedule of returns from the Harris marketing campaign: “Thursday, 11/07 & Past: If outcomes are very shut in any state, the race nonetheless is probably not referred to as.” However occasions moved a lot, a lot quicker than the Harris marketing campaign anticipated!

“Harris congratulates Trump on successful the presidential race” [Politico]. “Kamala Harris has referred to as Donald Trump to congratulate him on successful the 2024 presidential election, in keeping with a senior Harris aide. The vp talked in regards to the significance of a peaceable switch of energy and being a president for all People, the aide stated.” • Oh. Hopefully she’s not mendacity on the “peaceable switch” half; I nonetheless don’t see the way you simply hand the keys to the White Home over to somebody you devoutly imagine is a fascist. (except they had been mendacity all alongside). RussiaGate was launched, IIRC, within the Clinton marketing campaign airplane the day after the election, so perhaps Kamala’s folks had been hatching the identical form of plot earlier than 4:00pm in the present day. We will see.

* * *

A compendium of reactions. –lambert

Class: Harris all the time did nicely within the Hamptons:

Staggering class realignment/shift in working class

Harris misplaced DESPITE main shift of prosperous voters her method

2020: Trump wins voters over $100K, 54-52
2024: *Harris* wins voters over $100K, 54-45

2020: Biden wins voters $50K-$100K, 57-42
2024: *Trump* w/ voters $50K-$100K,…

— Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo) November 6, 2024

Shoutout to Ferguson and Storm:

I actually encourage individuals who assume the Biden financial system was nice to learn this paper from Could by Thomas Ferguson and Servaas Storm. “Trump versus Biden: The Macroeconomics of the Second Coming.” Want to grasp the financial context of this disaster. https://t.co/LI41QPehjV pic.twitter.com/UoCREFlp3u

— Neal Meyer (@nealmeyer) November 6, 2024

Trump being an skilled in sniffing out weak point. Seems the Democrat weak point was class, as one would count on from a celebration whose base is the PMC. Sadly, the one solution to specific that is via immigration. “Lived expertise,” doncha know.

Common concrete materials advantages:

* * *

Missouri:

Nothing to see right here, only a centrist shedding by half 1,000,000 votes in a state the place leftwing labor coverage gained. https://t.co/MiRq73hkis

— Aren R. LeBrun (@arenrlebrun) November 6, 2024

Counties: “Early Outcomes Present a Crimson Shift Throughout the U.S.” [New York Times]: “Of the counties with almost full outcomes, greater than 90 p.c shifted in favor of former President Donald J. Trump within the 2024 presidential election.”

Kamala’s underperformance:

“Holy smokes! Actually nothing? Actually not one county?”

Jake Tapper is completely SHOCKED by the map exhibiting that Kamala did not outperform Biden in a single county.

She’s a complete loser!pic.twitter.com/XI0Q4s4wnU

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 6, 2024

See the group observe. There are 3.144 counties in america, and 58/3,144 = 0.01844783715, which is zero for all sensible functions. (I additionally assume Twitter, or, I suppose, Musk, deservers credit score for the “Group Notes” function. I discover it helpful.)

Information level (1):

An attention-grabbing knowledge level. Donald Trump simply gained Anson County, North Carolina. The county is 40% Black. Trump turns into simply the second Republican to win this county for the reason that 1870s. (For folks holding rating, meaning since Reconstruction).

— Darvio Morrow (@DTheKingpin) November 6, 2024

Information level (2):

Trump gained Starr County TX, most Hispanic county in America at 97% by 16 factors.

Final time it voted republican was in 1892.

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 6, 2024

The Blob: I ponder how the “thirty 5 12 months nationwide safety skilled” is feeling?

Musk v Pompeo. The battle for coronary heart of the Trump administration has begun: https://t.co/JmvThxutR7

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) November 6, 2024

Maybe all of the endorsements from generals and spooks and nationwide safety goons had been — hear me out — a damaging?

The nation just isn’t okay. Each Nationwide Safety Advisor stated don’t vote for this man. And hundreds of thousands do, anyway.

— Darlene McDonald (@iamdarlenemcd) November 6, 2024

Our Democracy: Distress:

There is a signal you may see in lots of retailers that promote lovely however fragile gadgets: LOVELY TO LOOK AT, DELIGHTFUL TO HOLD, BUT ONCE YOU BREAK IT, THEN IT’S SOLD.
You may say the identical about democracy.

— Stephen King (@StephenKing) November 6, 2024

One occasion’s candidate was chosen in primaries; the opposite’s was chosen by a small cabal. One occasion’s base hated its management, and used the first mechanism to do away with it. The opposite occasion wouldn’t even think about such a factor, and operates strictly by seniority. Which occasion is extra democratic?

Democrat Management: The whole Democrat management should be purged, for starters:

This catastrophic Senate final result is on Schumer, who explicitly sought to commerce working class votes for suburban prosperous votes, and bought bought neither. pic.twitter.com/38FgfygfIY

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) November 6, 2024

After all, that gained’t occur, and your complete occasion has been remodeled within the picture of the failed leaders (Exhibit A: AOC), so even when it did occur, it will make no differenece.

Identification Politics: “A historic realignment” –Trump

Trump claims Muslim People as a part of the coalition that helped safe his projected victory within the 2024 presidential election: “It got here from — they got here from all quarters — union, non-union, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American, Muslim … It was… pic.twitter.com/lyTfJIr3Fd

— Drop Web site (@DropSiteNews) November 6, 2024

Abortion: “Reproductive Freedom” outperformed Kamala:

Abortion rights are beating Kamala in each single state that voted on them.

Progressive insurance policies aren’t unelectable – unpopular Democratic politicians are. pic.twitter.com/Akum3h67jZ

— Holding Dems Accountable (From the Left!) (@PushBidenLeft) November 6, 2024

This implies, maybe counter-intuitively, that the Supreme Court docket in Dobbs, which left abortion as much as the states, will in actual fact maximize poltically possible codification (assuming Trump retains his promise to not push for a nationwide ban. Little question the Christianists will push for a nationwide ban when Congress reconvenes, so we’ll see what occurs. Personally, I feel Trump would really like the entire situation, and its zealots, to go away).

Our Famously Free Press:

Even prototypical DC journalist @MarkHalperin says the media failure could also be so immense it may’t be repaired.

“It is such an admission of full skilled irresponsibility, of malpractice, that it is troublesome for folks to concede.” https://t.co/77eML6ka1c pic.twitter.com/IBL5CzVDlW

— Emily Kopp (@emilyakopp) November 6, 2024

The “darkish” meme reappears:

Discover how WaPo and NYT use the time period “darkish” to explain Trump, however by no means used that for Biden and Harris whereas they spent a 12 months bombing infants?

Sure, Trump is unhealthy, however this sort of media whitewashing of Dems has to cease. pic.twitter.com/MrEkQ0Stc7

— Peter Daou (@peterdaou) November 6, 2024

Fascism:

America just isn’t a darkish place, Trump just isn’t a fascist, and we’re not headed for an authoritarian state.

Dems simply did a foul job at governing and politics. They trusted the Federal Reserve and the international coverage and media institution.

Trump didn’t.

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) November 6, 2024

I disagree with scholar-of-fascism Paxton’s declare that this can be a fascist second (see prolonged dialogue right here). I don’t assume it’s evidence-based, not to mention based mostly on scholarship. That stated, I agree wholeheartedly with him right here: “No matter Trumpism is, it’s coming ‘from under as a mass phenomenon, and the leaders are working to maintain forward of it.’” Democrats will, after all, be incapable of even perceiving this “mass phenomenon,” not to mention analyzing it. Ditto RINOs. Right now’s Republicans? I don’t know.

Liberal Lack of ability to Self-Replicate: “Would it not not in that case be less complicated for the federal government to dissolve the folks and elect one other?” — Bertolt Brecht

This election was about one factor: hate vs. the understanding we’re all on this collectively. People want the previous. That is the one conclusion to attract. https://t.co/peJsk84GIU

— Elizabeth Kolbert (@ElizKolbert) November 6, 2024

The unhappy factor is that despite the fact that Kolbert is at The New Yorker, I’ve loved her writing on local weather.

Schadenfreude: The Bidens (1): Ouch!

Jill wore all crimson to vote. Because the spouse of a democrat politician there’s no method she doesn’t understand how this seems to be. Biden and Jill are pissed. pic.twitter.com/aHb5k4VZUe

— Coco 🇺🇸 (@CoClarified) November 5, 2024

The Bidens (2): Biden’s counter-programming, regardless of the trigger, can not have been useful:

“inform kamala. i need her to realize it was me.” https://t.co/5o1uUCy8Le pic.twitter.com/AErF84Rjab

— Logan Corridor (@loganclarkhall) November 6, 2024

(“I would like her to realize it was me” is a Recreation of Thrones reference.)

Get the phrase “Lincoln” out of your mouths:

Visitor on CNN: ‘The Lincoln Challenge was completely ineffective. They only constructed themselves a bunch of seashore homes on Dem donor cash.’

— Peter Daou (@peterdaou) November 6, 2024

The autumn of Home Cheney:

They Cheneys have now stolen two elections from Democrats however you may’t actually blame them for the second

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) November 6, 2024

* * *

Lambert right here: This submit brings Water Cooler’s every day election 2024 protection to an finish, though the election will proceed to be a wealthy vein of inquiry because the transition to a Trump administration takes place (assuming, after all, that there’s not a 3rd, profitable assassination try, or some late-breaking lawfare imbroglio). Let me briefly evaluate my methodology. Since this isn’t my weblog, I don’t make “calls” and positively don’t make endorsements. Slightly, I lay out my proof and considering and belief the readers to utilize them as they could. Again in December 2023 I wrote, trying ahead, or no less than forward, to the 12 months’s protection:

340 days is a very long time in politics. Within the formulation of stability vs. volatility — that’s, the view that the race is a “common order” of Trump v. Biden, vs. the view that it’s under no circumstances sure that Trump and/or Biden will nominated[1], elected, and allowed to imagine workplace[2], and additional, that the means by which the events will choose their candidates is unknown[3], and even the character of victory is unknown — I’m firmly on the facet of volatility[4].

[1] In reality, Biden was defenestrated. [2] We will’t make sure: The transition interval is a very long time of politics. [3] Kamala was chosen not in a major, however by a small cabal. [4] I feel the upheaval on election day comes underneath the heading of volatility (along with Trump being the second President since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive phrases). Additional:

Therefore my grimly detailed and methodical pointillist technique; we have to know as a lot about all of the gamers and fields as we presumably can, as a result of we can not know who will emerge from the pack[5], and even, at this level, why[6]. The powers that be can rig the election all they need, but when the canines gained’t eat the rigging, what then? And if they may, what then? So strap yourselves in.

[5] Robert Kennedy. [6] Uncommitted and Stein re: genocide.

I really feel that the “grimly detailed and methodical pointillist technique” can not however have given readers perception into splendor and miseries of electoral politics, the strengths and weaknesses of the events and the gamers, and “vibes.” What I didn’t anticipate, going into 2024, was the sheer quantity and solidity of the bullshit I must deal with, and the overwhelming dedication of the press to the victory of 1 candidate/occasion. These two elements made the every day activity of plucking nuggets from the information stream far more time-consuming and, certainly, dangerous than I’ve turn into accustomed to, as a result of actually each knowledge level needed to be “assessed,” as if I had been some form of spook myself. One other method of claiming that is that the PMC are my folks, the press being a subset thereof; and I’ve been accustomed to with the ability to apply a correct low cost to a big array of PMC work merchandise, venues, and so on., shortcutting the evaluation course of. Not so this 12 months! One other methodological situation was representing the ebb and stream of candidate help within the marketing campaign. Right here, I made a decision to make use of the RealClearPolitics (RCP) ballot averages each week. RCP is a conservative supply, however and so its averages protected me (and also you) from polling error and manipulation. All through, potential paths to victory for the final word winner had been all the time clear. I’m additionally blissful to have stored drawing that crimson field round Pennsylvania, the place the Blue Wall first cracked. (I used to be stunned that Trump gained the favored vote, however I by no means did monitor it, because it wasn’t related to victory). Right here endeth my criticism/self-criticism for Water Cooler’s election protection.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity in the present day.

Right now’s Concern & Greed Index: 57 Greed (earlier shut: 43 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 57 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 6 at 2:00:00 PM ET.

Musical Interlude

Gram Parsons’ birthday was the opposite day:

E-book Nook

“Report finds ‘surprising and dispiriting’ fall in kids studying for pleasure” [Guardian]. Within the UK: “Kids’s studying enjoyment has fallen to its lowest stage in nearly twenty years, with only one in three younger folks saying that they get pleasure from studying of their free time, in keeping with a brand new survey. Solely 34.6% of eight- to 18-year-olds surveyed by the Nationwide Literacy Belief (NLT) stated that they get pleasure from studying of their spare time. That is the bottom stage recorded by the charity because it started surveying kids about their studying habits 19 years in the past, representing an 8.8 proportion level drop since final 12 months. It is usually a part of a broader downward pattern since 2016, when nearly two in three kids stated that they loved studying.” • That’s a steep drop-off!

Zeitgeist Watch

Information of the Wired

“Solely 5.3% of welders within the US are ladies. After years as a writing professor, I turned one − right here’s what I discovered” [The Conversation]. “Recognizing the great pay and job safety, U.S. ladies have moved in larger numbers into expert trades corresponding to welding and fabrication inside the previous 10 years. From 2017 to 2022, the variety of ladies in trades rose from about 241,000 to almost 354,000. That’s a rise of about 47%. Even so, ladies nonetheless represent simply 5.3% of welders in america.” • Value a learn, notably in case you’re a lady considering of coming into the sphere.