2:00PM Water Cooler 12/27/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Track of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Marin, California, United States. “This hen was languidly singing from an unseen location inside an oak tree uphill from the primary steep a part of the fireplace street instantly above the tip of San Andreas Drive. Mimicked birds embody Steller’s Jay (0:12), Northern Flicker (0:16), European Starling (0:31) and American Robin (0:44).” That is yesterday’s hen tune, which I by chance deleted in a post-prandial haze.

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

1. MAGA eviscerates the Tech Bros on immigration.
2. Mangione household investments in well being care (not fairly).
3. New Covid charts.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Assassination Makes an attempt (Plural)

“Trial of man accused in Trump assassination try in Florida pushed again to September” [Associated Press]. “Ryan Routh’s trial will start Sept. 8 as a substitute of the beforehand scheduled Feb. 10, 2025 begin date, U.S. District Choose Aileen Cannon stated in an order launched on Monday…. Routh’s attorneys had requested the decide to delay the trial till no sooner than subsequent December, saying they wanted extra time to evaluation the proof in opposition to him and resolve whether or not to mount an madness protection. Routh owned 17 cellphones and quite a few different digital gadgets, and there are lots of of hours of police physique digicam and surveillance movies which were offered to the protection, Routh’s attorneys argued throughout a listening to two weeks in the past in Fort Pierce, Florida. In her order, Cannon stated she wished to err on the aspect of offering extra time given the seriousness of the allegations, however that beginning the trial no sooner than December can be an extreme quantity. A September trial date didn’t quantity to an ‘unreasonable delay,’ she stated…. The decide stated that any madness protection or any request associated to Routh’s psychological competency have to be made by early February. Any go to to the scene of the assassination try have to be made by the tip of February.”

It was a completely wild day on the Twitter in the present day, as MAGA and the Tech Bros tangled on immigration (and (an Ozempic-addled?) Musk destroyed his popularity as a free speech advocate within the soace of some hours). I can’t cowl all of it, however listed here are a few of the highlights (and extra with orts ands scraps:

DOGE character Vivek Ramaswamy fired the opening gun:

One fast response:

Apparently People now need to outcompete folks in your complete world for jobs inside America

— frog (@i_m_cattle) December 26, 2024

And a second:

Apparently People now need to outcompete folks in your complete world for jobs inside America

— frog (@i_m_cattle) December 26, 2024

So, so shut!

And a 3rd:

The place would America be with out Viveks coming in and defrauding shareholders of two billion {dollars} price of faux dementia medication pic.twitter.com/R8LjcK6qOh

— Spinachbrah 🥗 (@basedspinach) December 26, 2024

Hello Vivek [waves]!

And a fourth:

Elon Musk promised to pay $47 to swing state voters who signed his America PAC petition. They’re nonetheless ready for the fee. That is just the start. pic.twitter.com/5THpwIBmiF

— Ron Smith (@Ronxyz00) December 26, 2024

Hello Elon [waves]!

* * *

Noah Smith weighed in; I can’t bear to cite him, however embody this display screen shot to point out the size of the controversy, since that is solely a fraction of the responses, and Smith was in no way the one combatant with a following:

* * *

“Elon Musk’s Critics Stripped of Verification Badge After Publicly Difficult Billionaire: ‘The Starting Phases of Censorship’ [Mediaite]. “A number of conservative critics of billionaire Trump surrogate Elon Musk had been stripped of their verification badges on X after publicly difficult Musk’s stance on immigration. Trump ally Laura Loomer, New York Younger Republican Membership president Gavin Wax, InfoWars host Owen Shroyer, and the pro-Trump ConservativePAC had been all stripped of their verification badges after criticizing Musk’s controversial remarks about American staff and international H-1B visa holders. ‘[Musk] has eliminated my blue test mark on X as a result of I dared to query his help for H1B visas, the substitute of American tech staff by Indian immigrants, and I questioned his relationship with China,’ wrote Loomer in a publish on Musk’s social community X, previously referred to as Twitter.’” • Oopsie!

* * *

In the meantime, Trump in 2016:

pic.twitter.com/W9k5qwMmoO

— 🏛 Aristophanes 🏛 (@Aristos_Revenge) December 26, 2024

And Trump in 2024:

Trump staying silent because the H-1B visa disagreements trigger main rifts in MAGA world and wannabe MAGA world. pic.twitter.com/Ok9rE9O9WH

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) December 27, 2024

This reveals, I’d speculate, Trump sitting within the catbird seat, and really a lot conscious of it, as Musk and Vivek each take themselves out of the operating with out Trump needing to elevate a finger: Mush for co-Presidency in the present day, Vivek for 2028 (and leaving intelligently silent Vance because the anointed, albeit very early favourite. Nice photograph, too, I like the painterliness).

Lambert with some hasty feedback: The tech bros make a dishonest argument. They name for bringing in one of the best of one of the best from everywhere in the world, to maintain American aggressive, and justify the H1B visa program on these grounds. The problem is that there’s a visa program for one of the best of one of the best, and it’s not the H1B; it’s the O-1. The H1B is getting used herald 1000’s of (essentially docile) codes, accountants, and so on., with (it’s asserted) a median wage of ~$70K. Briefly type, H1B is for labor arbitrage:

Lmfao fucking liar, is 70k a yr in Austin prime .1%? https://t.co/JuOczTXhNo pic.twitter.com/6UurWi46pC

— Alexander Augustine (@WurzelRoot) December 26, 2024

And extra on labor arbitrage:

The rationale prime tech corporations are hiring international staff over People is just because they don’t wish to pay increased wages. It’s so simple as that @VivekGRamaswamy.

Right here’s the proof: https://t.co/Urz40Ytszb pic.twitter.com/iI1xGwB0t9

— U.S. Tech Staff (@USTechWorkers) December 26, 2024

Fascinatintly, the MAGA varieties know these items chilly — by “lived expertise,” as we are saying, and are eviscerating the tech bros with pleasing effectivity. Jogs my memory of the blogosphere c. 2003 – 2006, with everyone leaping in. Very spectacular, and simply think about if the so-called left had been doing this to the Democrats. (Hilariously, a few of the Tech Bro defenders are utilizing Democrat loyalist traces like “Now will not be the time!”). I discover the entire controversy terrific, and simply think about! A severe argument about coverage happening in public! Merry Christmas.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“‘Didn’t Count on This Twist’: Mangione Household Enterprise In The Highlight After New Data Is Revealed” [Bored Panda]. Summarizing a TikTok video: “[Patriarch Nicholas Mangione] additionally based Lorien Well being Providers, a nursing residence at which his grandson, now behind bars, volunteered in 2014…. Taking to her TikTok web page on Tuesday (December 10), social media content material creator Tiffany Cianci additional uncovered the place Mangione’s rumored wealth got here from…. The Mangione household owns Lorien Well being Providers, a community of privately held nursing care services in Maryland, in addition to the Turf Valley Golf Resort, used for occasions and networking with healthcare and pharmaceutical representatives, Cianci defined…. Public information revealed the services and resort are owned by the ten grownup youngsters of Nicholas and Mary Mangione, every holding a ten% stake, with Luigi Mangione’s father, Louis Mangione, recognized as president of the event firm for these properties…. American authorities scores revealed low-quality circumstances, with one facility receiving simply two stars and 24 well being demerits this yr—nicely above the nationwide common. Disturbingly, 83% of low-risk residents reportedly lose management of their bowels or bladder resulting from insufficient care, far exceeding the nationwide common of 48%. Mangione, who volunteered at these services, allegedly expressed disdain for such methods in a manifesto discovered throughout his arrest.”

“Most People Blame Insurance coverage Income and Denials Alongside Killer in UHC CEO Demise, Ballot Finds” [Time]. “About 7 in 10 adults say that denials for well being care protection by insurance coverage corporations, or the income made by medical insurance corporations, additionally bear not less than “a average quantity” of accountability for Thompson’s loss of life. Youthful People are significantly prone to see the homicide as the results of a confluence of forces reasonably than only one individual’s motion.” • Hmm.

* * *

“Will the jury let Luigi Mangione get away with homicide?” [The Hill]. “Featured centrally within the felony protection lawyer’s toolbox is a dedication to search out the best technique of prying open the deepest ideas of jurors, significantly the elusive nullifier — these jurors whose most intimate views encourage them to work to acquit a trial defendant whatever the info, even within the face of robust proof of guilt. After all, it’s the prosecutor’s responsibility to exclude them. My heresy however, it’s certainly the protection lawyer’s righteous obligation to establish these nullifiers and attempt to seat them. ” And: “And prosecutors right here aren’t with out fault in offering would-be nullifiers with grist for the mill. They share some accountability for the spike in public sentiment for Mangione by charging terrorism and elevating the offense degree to Homicide 1 in a single jurisdiction, threatening a potential loss of life penalty in one other jurisdiction, and taking part in a meals combat over who takes him to trial first. The piling on, the escorts with physique armor and rifles, the perp strolling and the overcharging intensify his folk-hero standing and add gasoline to a possible nullification fireplace that’s already burning brilliant.”

“Madness Protection Is Luigi Mangione’s Solely Possibility: Lawyer” [Newsweek]. “Greg Germain, an lawyer with over 30 years of expertise, stated that he doesn’t imagine will probably be a case of jury nullification, through which a jury acquits the accused out of sympathy for them or their trigger. Germain, who teaches legislation at Syracuse College in New York, stated that, given the burden of proof, madness is probably going the one protection that may work. “It’s laborious for me to think about jury nullification. Individuals could not like their medical insurance corporations, however I don’t assume they may condone murdering insurance coverage executives on the street,” [Germain] stated. ‘The one potential protection I might think about is madness, which may be very laborious to determine in a deliberate case like this,’ he stated.”

* * *

“Nordstrom, Maison Margiela Newest Manufacturers Caught Up in Public’s Fascination With Luigi Mangione” [Women’s Wear Daily]. “Levi’s, Peak Design, Tommy Hilfiger and Monopoly had been beforehand referenced in information tales and social media posts concerning the [Mangione] case, with Peak Design’s CEO Peter Dering dealing with social media backlash and threats after he knowledgeable The New York Occasions that he had contacted the New York Police Division’s tip line. Dering bought concerned with the case after a number of folks had texted him that the shooter seemed to be carrying a Peak Design backpack in surveillance photos. ‘What we see with Mangione is he has shortly develop into a folks hero and a style folks hero. It’s nearly just like the film ‘The Joker,’ the place folks dressed like him,’ Diana Rickard, a felony justice professor on the Metropolis College of New York, beforehand informed WWD about Mangione’s on-line recognition.” • So if you wish to serve on the jury, don’t put on the sweater….

“Letters to the Editor: Sufficient with the fixed media protection of Luigi Mangione” [Los Angeles Times]. “Sufficient of repeatedly seeing Mangione’s smugly defiant picture on TV information and in newspaper images. Identical goes for any pre-trial publicity of his skewed ideological conceits. Let felony proceedings take their course. As soon as Mangione has been tried, ample pertinent proof will likely be accessible for the general public to forged judgment on him.”

“Bets on CEO Homicide Suspect’s Destiny Check Guidelines on Occasion Contracts” [Bloomberg]. “Contracts provided by Kalshi Inc., a New York-based alternate, permit retail merchants to place cash on the result of almost something. Kalshi listed wagers on Dec. 11 associated to Thompson’s loss of life that included whether or not the suspect, Luigi Mangione, can be extradited to New York from Pennsylvania, whether or not he acted alone and whether or not he’ll be convicted or plead responsible. Two days later, buying and selling instantly halted, with Kalshi telling clients it made the choice ‘after receiving discover from our regulators,’ in line with messages reviewed by Bloomberg Information. The Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee and Kalshi declined to remark. The CFTC, which regulates Kalshi, bans futures buying and selling linked to crimes together with assassination, terrorism and struggle if the company decides the so-called occasions contracts are in opposition to the general public curiosity.”

Comfortable anniversary:

It has been 5 years. https://t.co/l8AEcpoBIi

— Adam Wong (@Engineer_Wong) December 27, 2024

Lambert right here: The chart I discover actually bizarre is New York. It’s not likely flat; what we see is a really gradual enhance. I don’t know the way to give an account for that. Be aware that New York State as an entire is up:

I can’t give an account for this both. (I observe New York Metropolis due to its standing as a global hub for air journey, and its historical past.)

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new in the present day; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing extra purple and extra orange, however nothing new at main hubs.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has finished a terrific job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) A little bit uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Sluggish and small however regular enhance.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward development since, nicely, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

There are not any offical statistics of curiosity in the present day.

Actual Property: “Growth in US retail actual property defies prediction of ecommerce apocalypse” [Financial Times]. “Vacancies at open-air procuring centres within the US have dropped to traditionally low ranges, defying forecasts of a retail apocalypse brought on by the rise of ecommerce. Landlords of complexes anchored by big-box chains, low cost retailers and supermarkets have gained energy to lift rents as leases expire. New development has been stymied by increased rates of interest and hovering constructing prices. Solely 6.2 per cent of out of doors procuring centre area is presently accessible for hire, in line with property information firm CoStar, the bottom because it started monitoring availability in 2006. The development stands in distinction with enclosed procuring malls, the place vacancies are rising.” • Hmm. Should be one thing about out of doors air….

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s area enterprise might expertise liftoff in 2025” [Quartz]. “The Motley Idiot reviews that there’s vital investor intrigue surrounding the corporate’s area program after its tough 2024…. The important thing to these efforts might be Boeing’s Vulcan rockets, which Amazon will likely be utilizing for a lot of area launches subsequent yr. Moreover, the corporate is anticipating an approval to run nationwide safety missions for the U.S. authorities. A brighter 2025 would mark a wanted turnaround for Boeing. .” • Oh noes:

Manufacturing: “Boeing battles mind drain as engineers chase the attract of area” [Financial Times]. “Boeing is slicing jobs by 10 per cent throughout the corporate, and this month a second spherical of lay-offs introduced the whole of union-represented engineers leaving to 400. The blow to morale comes as engineers — free of the ‘velvet handcuffs’ of long-term advantages — are contrasting Boeing’s turmoil with the attract of area corporations staking out thrilling targets. The typical tenure of a Boeing engineer has fallen over the previous decade from 16.4 years to 12.6 years, in line with information from the union representing 12,000 Boeing engineers, the Society of Skilled Engineering Workers in Aerospace. Tenure shortened in nearly all ages bracket, with staff of their 20s and 30s averaging fewer years, in addition to these of their late 40s by 65. The chance of this ‘mind drain’, as analysts, recruiters and union officers have described it, is that it drags on present operations and will make it more durable for Boeing to launch its subsequent new airplane. ‘All of this expertise is gone,’ stated Matt Kempf, SPEEA’s senior director for compensation and retirement. That raises issues as a result of ‘aerospace engineers aren’t made, they’re grown.’”

Tech: “Microsoft and OpenAI have a monetary definition of AGI: Report” [TechCrunch]. “Microsoft and OpenAI have a really particular, inside definition of synthetic basic intelligence (AGI) primarily based on the startup’s income, in line with a brand new report from The Info. And by this definition, OpenAI is a few years away from reaching it. The 2 corporations reportedly signed an settlement final yr stating OpenAI has solely achieved AGI when it develops AI methods that may generate not less than $100 billion in income. That’s removed from the rigorous technical and philosophical definition of AGI many anticipate.” • So, the definition of AGI is how large the bezzle will get? Novel! Nonetheless, severe cash. For individuals who perceive the stakes–

Tech: “Dad and mom of OpenAI Whistleblower Don’t Consider He Died By Suicide, Order Second Post-mortem” [SFist]. “The mother and father have employed an lawyer, Phil Kearney, they usually have commissioned a second, impartial post-mortem.” • Hmm.

Transport: A thread on ship-breaking with great images:

We did some protection on the Gadani shipbreaking catastrophe in Pakistan, again within the day.

At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 33 Concern (earlier shut: 35 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 28 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 27 at 1:02:05 PM ET.

Gallery

Catching up on my studying:

Vanessa Bell:

Fairfield Porter:

Twitter search comes up large time:

And for the Alma-Tadema stans, of whom we’ve got not less than one:

Meals

That is America too:

Guillotine Watch

“Mark Zuckerberg denies constructing 5K-square-foot ‘Doomsday bunker’ below $270M Hawaii compound, saying it’s ‘like a basement’” [New York Post]. “Mark Zuckerberg dismissed reviews that he’s constructing a 5,000-square-foot ‘Doomsday bunker’ beneath a $270 million compound in Hawaii — insisting as a substitute that it’s only a ‘little shelter.’ The 40-year-old tech tycoon was requested throughout a Dec. 19 interview with Bloomberg about rumors that he’s establishing an underground facility beneath his 1,400-acre residence on the island of Kauai, one of the vital northern islands within the Northern Pacific archipelago. ‘No, I feel [you think??] that’s similar to a bit of shelter. It’s like a basement,’ Zuckerberg, the third wealthiest individual on the earth behind Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, informed Bloomberg’s Emily Chang. Mark Zuckerberg in a blue shirt discussing life and tech throughout an interview at his Lake Tahoe retreat. A number of rich people have been rumored to have constructed huge tunnels and underground networks in preparation for potential catastrophe, together with PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, Microsoft co-founder Invoice Gates, Tesla CEO Musk and disgraced rapper Kanye ‘Ye’ West. Zuckerberg, who as of Thursday boasted a web price valued by Bloomberg Billionaires Index at $215 billion, has insisted that the intention of the ranch is to lift “world-class” cattle on beer and macadamia nuts with a view to ‘create a few of the highest high quality beef on the earth.’” • Nuttier than a fruitcake.

Information of the Wired

“Batteries” [Hans Summers]. “In all places on the web, you may learn concerning the traditional faculty science challenge, sticking two dissimilar metals right into a lemon and producing some small quantity of energy. Typically potatoes. You possibly can even purchase “kits” to do that in toystores. What appears to be usually missing is any measurements on such batteries. How a lot energy can they provide? And for the way lengthy? And what components are concerned to find out these parameters? Certain, you may energy an LCD clock, till the lemon dries out. However they eat a miniscule present anyway. I discovered some web sites which claimed {that a} single lemon will produce 0.5V and 1mA of present. They didn’t say how lengthy for. A number of lemons in collection are supposedly sufficient to gentle an LED.” • Helpful post-Jackpot?