2:00PM Water Cooler 2/16/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Music of the Day

Home/Purple Finch, Pine Plains; Stissing Ave. & Poplar Ave., Dutchess, New York, United States. “Could possibly be a Purple Finch as properly. PM is not sure what fowl that is due to its unusual music. This fowl is perched on high of a Norway spruce. PM is 1/2 block from an equipment retailer. The fowl took off with no flight name.” From 1975, again when birders added their observations to the recording.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump fraud trial LIVE: Ex-president awaits blockbuster verdict as hush cash court docket date set” (reside) [Independent]. “Choose Arthur Engoron is anticipated to ship a verdict in Donald Trump’s New York civil fraud trial on Friday that would see the previous president hit with thousands and thousands of {dollars} in fines and sanctions. The justice has already dominated that Mr Trump inflated his wealth on monetary statements that got to banks and insurers to make offers and safe beneficial loans. New York lawyer common Letitia James is searching for $370m and a ban on the defendant and his fellow Trump Group executives from doing enterprise within the state.” • That is the case about inflated New York actual property values.

Trump (R): “Trump to face trial on March 25 in NY legal hush cash case” [Reuters]. • That is the case a few wealthy dude paying off a mistress.

Trump (R): “Trump-Appointed Choose Denies Ex-President’s Movement to Delay Deadlines in Paperwork Case” [Mediate]. • That is the case the place the accused didn’t dump the paperwork in a field in his storage subsequent to “family detritus.” Actually, I’m all for the rule of regulation, I actually am, however might there please be a single tier?

* * *

Trump (R): “Fani Willis simply gave Donald Trump precisely what he desires” [MSNBC]. “For many who usually place confidence in Willis, she was understandably enraged and gave a grasp class in tips on how to defend oneself in a public setting. For others, her protestations have been excessive. Even so, the truth that there was even a listening to into Willis and whether or not she has a monetary battle of curiosity within the case was a windfall for Trump.”

Trump (R): “5 revelations from the explosive Fani Willis listening to in Georgia” [The Hill]. “Tensions exploded [(!)] Thursday throughout a frenetic [(!!)] listening to to find out whether or not Fulton County’s district lawyer’s workplace must be disqualified from persevering with its 2020 election interference prosecution of former President Trump and his allies as a consequence of a relationship between high prosecutors on the case…. Initially of her testimony, she railed towards Roman lawyer Ashleigh Service provider for submitting the ‘dishonest’ movement to disqualify the district lawyer, accusing her of spreading ‘lies’ and implying she slept with Wade ‘the primary day [she] met with him.’ ‘When somebody lies on you — it’s extremely offensive,’ Willis stated after McAfee requested her to remain on subject with the questioning.” • The “money” stuff is attention-grabbing, too, however I don’t know what the norms are, on this context….

Trump (R): “Jack Smith is in a rush, however he can’t say why” [Washington Examiner]. “The rationale for Smith’s haste has been apparent all alongside: He desires Trump to be tried, convicted, sentenced, and presumably jailed earlier than the Nov. 5 presidential election. May something be clearer? All the pieces that Smith has carried out since Aug. 1, 2023, when the indictment was unsealed, has been to hurry the case to a call earlier than deadline — and the deadline has all the time been the 2024 presidential election. However right here’s the issue for Smith. The Justice Division forbids prosecutorial interference with elections. The rules are very clear: ‘Federal prosecutors and brokers might by no means choose the timing of any motion, together with investigative steps, legal fees, or statements, for the aim of affecting any election, or for the aim of giving a bonus or drawback to any candidate or political occasion.’ It’s now Feb. 15. The South Carolina major is on Feb. 24, adopted by the Michigan major, adopted by Tremendous Tuesday. Trump has already received Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada and is the prohibitive favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination. Trump can also be main President Joe Biden within the RealClearPolitics common of nationwide, head-to-head polls. So it’s honest to say that up to now on this election 12 months, Trump is the main candidate to be the following president of the USA. And Jack Smith is frantically making an attempt to place him in jail earlier than the election. Which may, simply would possibly, be what the Justice Division intends to stop when it says federal prosecutors ‘might by no means choose the timing of any motion, together with investigative steps, legal fees, or statements, for the aim of affecting any election.’ That may be a dangerous factor, and Jack Smith is doing it.”

* * *

Trump (R): “Sharp Elbows, Even Sharper Knives in Trump Interior Sanctums” [Philip Wegman, RealClearPolitics]. “Whereas some detractors attempt to dismiss [Turning Point founder Charlie] Kirk as a younger and inexperienced activist, the attain of the 29-year-old populist can’t be denied. He has a bigger social media following than lots of his critics, and politicians often compete for talking slots at TPUSA occasions, which draw crowds of younger conservatives within the hundreds. His newest ambition: an eye-popping $108 million get-out-the vote marketing campaign through TPUSA’s political arm in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin to swing the election. ‘I don’t assume Trump is totally conscious of that plan. When he finds out, he’s not going to be comfortable in any respect,’ a Republican operative in shut contact with the Trump marketing campaign stated of the multi-million greenback effort. The associated fee is exorbitant in comparison with conventional door-knocking efforts, with little assure of success, the operative famous. When Trump learns of the formidable spending plan, funded by donors who would in any other case give on to his marketing campaign, they predicted, the previous president ‘can be pissed out of his thoughts.’” • Let’s wait and see.

Trump (R): “How Donald Trump Can Beat Joe Biden” [Louis Perron, RealClearPolitics]. “The primary problem for Donald Trump is that he has to ensure the 2024 election stays a referendum on Joe Biden. I say that as a result of it’s within the very nature of Donald Trump’s character to make every thing about himself…. It’s been stated that nice campaigns are by no means a rerun of earlier nice campaigns. In that sense, Donald Trump must evolve and reinvent himself. He’s now not the outsider he was again in 2016. If public opinion have been static, folks like me wouldn’t have a job. Donald Trump must do one thing that has turn out to be retro in U.S. politics, specifically to achieve out, and to take action in a significant method. One of many much-written about segments of swing voters that can be decisive in November is suburban ladies. Jan. 6 and abortion are simply two points that they wish to see addressed…. One might argue that in 2020, Trump did a little bit little bit of outreach with respect to black males, and it labored surprisingly properly. (I truly assume that if he had carried out extra of it, he might have received reelection)…. ? No, I don’t. I’ve labored for candidates who have been of their late 70s and early 80s, and I can affirm from my very own expertise what’s being stated: It’s tough to show an outdated canine new methods. And that is significantly true for individuals who have received elections earlier than. That stated, it’s not inconceivable both. In spite of everything, Kellyanne Conway was in a position to make Donald Trump a extra disciplined candidate in the course of the last months of the 2016 marketing campaign.” • Hmm.

Trump (R): “Trump world considers having the previous president ship the official GOP State of the Union response” [NBC]. “Aides and allies near former President Trump have mentioned the previous president giving the official Republican response to President Joe Biden’s March 7 State of the Union deal with, in response to 5 folks acquainted with the talks. Two of the sources stated that Trump himself has mentioned it, however each stated he’s leaning towards the high-profile gig. The choice on who will ship the response rests with Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. A supply acquainted with the planning of the State of the Union deal with stated there was no outreach by the Trump marketing campaign to these planning the GOP rebuttal…. Nothing smacks of Washington politics greater than the official out-of-power occasion response to the State of the Union. That’s at odds with Trump’s message that, as a lot as he understands the character of politics within the nation’s capital, he’s not a creature of what he calls ‘The Swamp.’” • As if Trump couldn’t alter the setting to keep away from this!

* * *

Biden (D): “Democrats Are Too Resigned to Biden” [Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal]. Arguments towards a change in candidates in italic. “It’s too late. Lyndon B. Johnson, the final president to say no to hunt a second time period, dropped out on March 31, 1968. There was nonetheless time for contenders to launch and fund races. The first guidelines have modified since then, and ballots have been printed up. Mr. Biden can free his delegates, both from the day he steps apart or on the conference. Solely political romantics assume an open conference is feasible. You’ll be able to’t know it’s inconceivable. From time to time in life it’s a must to say, ‘Historical past, maintain my beer.’” • I don’t assume there’s any mechanical or technical downside {that a} smoke-filled room can’t remedy. The difficulty is introducing the candidate to the nation; that takes both a real, professionally run marketing campaign, or a celeb. Whereas it’s true that no one (regular) pays consideration to the election till after Labor Day, an August begin offers an awfully brief runway for an expert marketing campaign (and a stage of depth, ferality, and unity — “whole dedication” — I’m not positive that Democrats, as a celebration, possess). A celeb, then again, doesn’t have to be launched to the nation; that’s why Oprah is just not an insane concept as a sort, no matter her inclinations personally. (Celeb-hood was additionally certainly one of Trump’s benefits, allow us to recall.) Little question a sure era of Democrats would like to run Martin Sheen, however please, no.

Biden (D): “Sure, Democrats, it’s Biden or bust” [Vox]. “Different Democratic stars, like Govs. Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and Secretary Pete Buttigieg, are additionally loyal Biden Democrats, ballot worse than Biden, or are biding their time. And to bypass Harris for certainly one of them additionally opens up potential ire from Black voters, with out whom Democrats can’t win. Ought to a special, different Democrat emerge, with the vocal help of, I don’t know, Barack Obama and a core of Biden-critical strategists and politicians, and may first girl Jill Biden and different Biden confidantes strategy Biden and persuade him to drop out, we’d seemingly head towards a brokered conference with a number of rounds of voting. That additionally opens up the prospect for much more chaos and disunity amongst Democrats. Does that appear value it to anybody in Democratic politics proper now? The straightforward reply is not any. It’s too late.” • I agree on Physician Jill Biden’s essential position. Too dangerous Gina Haspel isn’t a Democrat. She’d be ideally suited!

Biden (D): “Biden Can’t Win With out Assist From Trump” [Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal]. “The Biden marketing campaign took a torpedo to its engine room final week within the type of particular counsel Robert Hur’s report. Mr. Hur wrote that he selected to not search an indictment of the president for mishandling categorized materials partly as a result of he thought a jury would see Mr. Biden as a ‘sympathetic, well-meaning, aged man with a poor reminiscence.’… To win, Staff Biden has just one possibility—an all-out assault on Mr. Trump, utilizing each technique of communication every single day in an assault of surprising scope and expense. Victory would require Mr. Trump’s cooperation in making actually outrageous appeals to his hard-core supporters that alienate swing voters. Thankfully for Mr. Biden, the previous president has carried out his greatest to assist.”

Biden (D): “Biden Should Win. However How?” [Pamela Paul, New York Times]. “[Biden] wants to begin making the specter of a second Trump time period — in all its unbridled terror — actual now. Lord assist us, we’re counting on him to stop that from taking place.” • “Make [them] afraid some extra, Shaddam. I shouldn’t get pleasure from this, however I discover the pleasure inconceivable to suppress.” –Frank Herbert, Dune

Biden (D): “Biden Is Set to Go to East Palestine, however Is He a Yr Too Late?” [New York Times]. Throwing a flag on the Betteridge’s Regulation violation. “However politics could also be inescapable. Whilst pro-Trump demonstrators rally on one aspect, others plan to carry a protest demanding that Mr. Biden deliver extra help to the group. And a few residents fear that one 12 months after a flurry of politicians turned their small city right into a prop, it’s about to occur once more.”

* * *

Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr.’s Libertarian play” [Politico]. “If Kennedy is the [Libertarian] Celebration’s nominee, his marketing campaign and related PACs received’t must shell out thousands and thousands of {dollars} and acquire tons of of hundreds of signatures to get on the final election poll in states throughout the nation…. The Mises Caucus — a extra radical libertarian faction organized across the work of Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises — has been an influence middle throughout the occasion since its endorsed candidate, Angela McArdle, received the nationwide committee chairmanship in a 2022 landslide victory with almost 70 p.c of the vote. It controls nearly all of the delegates who will vote on the occasion’s presidential nominee on the nationwide conference in Could. Whereas McArdle has instructed that the occasion could also be open to a Kennedy bid, final weekend the Mises Caucus got here out formally in opposition to his candidacy, making it unlikely that Kennedy has an actual shot on the nomination. McArdle didn’t reply to a request for remark.” • I shouldn’t get pleasure from this….

“Joe Manchin suggests Mitt Romney, Rob Portman as potential operating mates as he flirts with third-party ticket” [FOX]. • Expensive Lord.

* * *

NY: “5 takeaways from Democrats flipping George Santos’ Home seat in New York” [PBS]. Undistracted by the liberalgasm as a result of going Republican Lite on immigration may not be a loser within the ‘burbs: “Democrats additionally outspent Republicans $14 million to $8 million on this race, an enormous sum for a particular election…. Democrats hammered Pilip’s ethics, likening her to Santos. Over Santos’ face, this broadly run advert begins: ‘Identical story. New identify.’ It then reveals Pilip and says she’s ‘about to embarrass us once more’ and goes on to drop the oppo file about ‘unpaid payments from her household’s enterprise” and that she ‘additionally owed greater than $100,000 in unpaid taxes to the IRS, even submitting a false monetary disclosure. … She’s an moral nightmare.’ Suozzi is a identified amount on Lengthy Island. He’s a former Nassau County government and is a former congressman. Democrats primarily billed the race as a average, grownup within the room vs. an extremist, MAGA candidate.”

NY: “Democrats Have Themselves a Victory in New York. However They Additionally Have a Drawback” [Slate]. “The important thing to this race was the cash. Democrats spent almost $14 million, nearly double the GOP’s $8 million funding within the race. In response to AdImpact, the entire advert spend for simply this Lengthy Island district totaled an eyewatering $21.4 million. That’s greater than quadruple the outlay of the 2022 race that yielded Santos…. Ready for the nationwide occasion to airdrop a spending benefit of thousands and thousands of {dollars} is just not a sustainable solution to win elections. The problem of this win and the value tag present the price of the New York State Democratic Celebration’s refusal to reconcile with the failures of the occasion equipment after the 2022 midterms. This district may even have to return to the polls for this similar race in November. What number of thousands and thousands will that value? It may very well be an issue for Biden too. He could also be outdated. He could also be unpopular. However New York Democrats are a millstone round his neck, not the opposite method round. ‘This shouldn’t be a detailed race,’ stated Klein, the progressive organizer, on election day. “It makes me very nervous for November.” • Numerous not-very-encouraging element on NY Democrats.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Our Most Severe Nationwide Safety Risk Isn’t Russian Nukes In Area, It’s Intelligence Businesses In Washington” [The Federalist]. “It was a busy day in Washington on Wednesday because the intelligence paperwork tried to foment a nationwide safety panic over Russian nukes in house in hopes of ramming by the Ukraine help package deal and killing reforms designed to curb its energy to spy on Individuals…. What occurred subsequent is telling. Regardless that the Home Republicans who have been pushing for the [Section 702] FISA reforms [on ending Bush-era warrantless surveillance] seemed to be profitable the controversy, within the aftermath of the hysteria over Russia nukes in house, Speaker Johnson pulled the invoice and canceled Congress for the remainder of the week. It doesn’t take a conspiracy theorist to determine what occurred right here. Our intelligence companies don’t need lawmakers getting in the best way of their plans.” • Nope. And sadly it takes a reactionary to say it.

“The Day I Put $50,000 in a Shoe Field and Handed It to a Stranger” [Charlotte Cowles, New York Magazine (“The Cut”)]. The deck: ” I by no means thought I used to be the sort of individual to fall for a rip-off.” Cowles the Reduce’s financial-advice. Skipping the horrid particulars to come back to the half the place Cowles muses on the debacle:

It was my brother, the lawyer, who identified that what I had skilled sounded loads like a coerced confession. “I learn sufficient transcripts of dangerous interrogations in regulation faculty to grasp that anybody will be satisfied that they’ve a really slender set of horrible choices,” he stated. Once I posed this idea to Saul Kassin, a psychology professor at John Jay School of Prison Justice who research coerced confessions, he agreed. “If somebody is making an attempt to get you to be compliant, they do it incrementally, in a sequence of small steps that take you farther and farther from what you realize to be true,” he stated. “It’s not about breaking the desire. They have been altering the sense of actuality.”

So, like liberal Democrat occasion politics?

* * *

“Republican decision reveals intent to bypass Az voters in 2024 presidential election” [Tucson Sentinel]. “Rep. Rachel Jones, of Tucson, is the sponsor of Home Concurrent Decision 2055, a declaration saying that the state legislature already has the ability — through the U.S. Structure — to pre-appoint Arizona’s electors for the 2024 presidential election, to make sure that they’d vote for former President Donald Trump, whatever the outcomes of the favored vote. The Legislature would then use the specter of ignoring the votes of thousands and thousands of Arizonans to strong-arm Hobbs into signing an election reform invoice that will eradicate early voting and permit solely in-person voting and solely on Election Day with no mail-in ballots, to be utterly counted by hand. Hobbs wouldn’t have the ability to veto the measure for the reason that decision doesn’t have the ability of regulation, however merely declares its backers’ intentions and what they already imagine to be true, per federal regulation.

hile the Republican members of the Home Municipal Oversight and Elections Committee nearly all the time vote alongside occasion strains to approve proposed laws from their very own occasion, Jones’ decision went too far, even for them.” • Certainly!

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Search for the Helpers

Two, three, many Chicagos:

Cóvid-safer occasions in Chicago this week and subsequent!

All of them could have a minimum of certainly one of our air purifiers. Some may even require masks!!

Cóvid security is simple once we do it collectively 🩵🩵🩵 pic.twitter.com/cSVLvBf65j

— Clear Air Membership (@Clean_Air_Club_) February 16, 2024

Vaccination and Vaccines

“May a nasal vaccine imply you by no means get Covid once more? The way it works, the place to get one and every thing that you must know” [Daily Mail]. “May a powdered vaccine you inhale lastly supply the prospect to stamp Covid out for good? The vaccine is designed to work within the respiratory tract, the place the virus first will get into the physique. In response to a research, the vaccine presents nearly immediate safety towards Covid – in comparison with standard injected vaccines, which take as much as 14 days to turn out to be totally efficient. The inhaled vaccine blocked each an infection with the virus and the prospect of spreading it to others…. The vaccine is made from tiny spheres that comprise the protein that’s distinctive to the virus which causes Covid. It’s inhaled into the nostril and absorbed by blood vessels within the respiratory tract, the place immune cells known as T-cells and B-cells (which produce antibodies), assault it after which bear in mind it…. ‘An injected vaccine given into the muscle, normally within the arm, may even produce T-cells and B-cells, however these will primarily flow into within the blood and organs,’ he provides. ‘Injected vaccines solely provoke a tiny amount within the nostril and mouth, in order that they aren’t ideally suited guards for the purpose the place the Covid virus features entry. ‘It’s like placing safety guards behind a wall – with a nasal vaccine you’ve gotten these guards the place you want them.’” The Covid scenario within the UK have to be actually dangerous if the Every day Mail is writing about vaccines (though kudos to their scientific reporting, as normal). Extra: “We have already got them. (however because it comprises a reside virus it isn’t appropriate for older folks as a result of their immune methods are weaker). When it comes to Covid, there are various nasal vaccines in growth around the globe, and a minimum of two within the U.S. could also be at a stage the place they are often put earlier than the regulators later this 12 months. One of many contenders within the UK, known as ViraVac, has been developed by Professor Munir and his group primarily based on a vaccine initially sprayed round barns to halt a type of coronavirus in chickens. This had proven promise in animal research however he says he’s has struggled to seek out the funding wanted to maneuver to the following stage of analysis for the reason that World Well being Organisation downgraded the standing of Covid, saying in Could final 12 months that it was ‘now not a world emergency’.” • Good job, WHO. (We ran the Nature unique again in December; it’s paywalled, sadly.)

“New dry powder aerosol COVID-19 vaccine reveals promise towards a number of virus strains” [News Medical]. Mice, hamsters, and non-human primates. “Research findings revealed that this single-use nasal spray promotes the strong manufacturing of IgG and IgA antibodies and bolsters native T cell responses with the nasal tract and alveoli in murine and non-human primate fashions. The composition of the virus permits it to confer protection towards each ancestral COVID-19 variants and the more moderen Omicron strains. This novel vaccine might kind the idea for a brand new era of non-invasive vaccines towards each COVID-19 and different respiratory tract infections…. Most encouragingly, this vaccine was discovered to be each single dose and multivalent – in contrast to standard vaccines, the efficacy of R-CNP@M was secure towards an infection by standard and Omicron COVID-19 lineages. Moreover, in contrast to earlier vaccines (together with most aerosol-based ones) this vaccine requires administration solely as soon as.”

Immune Dysregulation

“Adelaide youngster reported with measles as instances emerge round Australia” [ABC Australia]. “Well being authorities have warned travellers on a flight from Melbourne to Adelaide to be alert for signs after a toddler has contracted measles.” Oh good. Extra: “The extremely contagious illness begins with fever, cough, runny nostril, sore eyes, adopted by a rash which begins on the top and spreads down the physique.” • The rash begins three to 5 days after signs start. However the signs are loads like Covid, for which California, Oregon, and (presumably) CDC will power kids again to highschool in one (1) day, thus guaranteeing transmission of an airborne virus with an R0 of 18, far larger than Covid.

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new right now; all others will not be up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) No backward revisions. The uptick is actual (a minimum of to Biobot).

[2] (Biobot) Biobot knowledge suggests an increase within the Northeast. MRWA knowledge doesn’t recommend that, as of February 8:

Right here, FWIW, is Verily nationwide knowledge as of February 14:

And regional knowledge for HHS Area, the Northeast:

[3] (CDC Variants) “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] (ER) Doesn’t help Biobot knowledge. “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even moving into the standard of the wastewater websites that we have now as a proxy for Covid an infection general.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Just a little slowing of the lower may very well be a flattening, in step with Biobot knowledge. Let’s wait and see.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and acquired examined anyhow.

[8] (Cleveland) Lambert right here: Share and absolute numbers down.

[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Up, albeit within the rear view mirror.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) Swift rise of JN.1.

Stats Watch

Housing: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins within the US slumped 14.8% month-over-month to an annualized 1.331 million in January 2024, the bottom since August and lacking market forecasts of 1.46 million. It’s the greatest fall since April 2020, following a revised 3.3% enhance to 1.562 million in December.”

Power: “How a lot electrical energy does AI devour?” [The Verge]. “The problem of constructing up-to-date estimates, says Sasha Luccioni, a researcher at French-American AI agency Hugging Face, is that corporations have turn out to be extra secretive as AI has turn out to be worthwhile. Return only a few years and companies like OpenAI would publish particulars of their coaching regimes — what {hardware} and for a way lengthy. However the identical info merely doesn’t exist for the newest fashions, like ChatGPT and GPT-4, says Luccioni. ‘With ChatGPT we don’t understand how massive it’s, we don’t know what number of parameters the underlying mannequin has, we don’t know the place it’s operating … It may very well be three raccoons in a trench coat since you simply don’t know what’s beneath the hood.’”

Tech: “Air Pressure OKs Autonomous Cargo Flights Throughout California After Profitable Take a look at” [Times of San Diego]. “The U.S. Air Pressure has approved San Francisco-based Xwing to move time-sensitive cargo throughout California on autonomous plane. The authorization follows a two-week demonstration totaling over 2,800 flight miles to civilian and navy airports, together with March Air Reserve Base, Vandenberg Area Pressure Base, Sacramento McClellan Airport, Meadows Area Airport, and Fresno Yosemite Worldwide Airport. The missions concerned a self-flying single-engine Cessna 208B Grand Caravan that may carry 3,000 kilos of cargo.”

Public Relations: “Buying and selling belief” [Seth’s Blog]. “Many corporations, significantly tech ones, are intentionally buying and selling belief for short-term income. Amazon and lots of different corporations went from investing closely in being dependable, reliable and honest to taking persistent steps to commerce these worthwhile property for quarterly outcomes. It’s value being clear about this–they did this deliberately. They determined that the boldness customers had positioned in them wasn’t value as a lot because the shortcuts they may take to extend income as an alternative. Whereas the survey focuses on broadly identified, massive establishments, the identical may very well be stated for the native pizzeria. When you burn some belief, it’s nearly inconceivable to earn it again. It took Harvard 400 years to turn out to be Harvard, Google about twenty to earn its place. That is the chance you’ve been ready for–to turn out to be the one which earns the good thing about the doubt. Being the low-trust possibility is hardly a spot value preventing for.” • Enshittification seen from one other angle. Useful chart:

I like Twitter’s place on the absolute backside, however I believe Brooking’s is lacking one thing: I don’t belief Twitter, the agency, within the slightest, irrespective of the proprietor. However I belief my curated checklist of follows very a lot (distinct from Fb, whose feed is so [family blogged] to belief anybody or something on it).

Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 76 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 76 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 77 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 16 at 1:24:38 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

Not a pleasant individual in any respect:

I don’t imply to sound dystopian, however doesn’t this indicate a commerce in physique elements?

The actual and the faux:

Class Warfare

“The identification of revenues and sources of income.” –The Bearded One

“It’s the Working Class, Silly” [Harold Mayerson, Prospect]. Evaluate of Judis and Teixiera, The place Have All of the Democrats Gone?: The Soul of the Celebration within the Age of Extremes. “As Judis and Teixeira inform the story, two units of culprits lie behind the Democrats’ financial and cultural missteps. They maintain Wall Avenue and Silicon Valley answerable for the occasion’s failure to observe by on the populist economics that Carter, Clinton, and Obama at occasions rhetorically invoked. The true offender for cultural radicalism, Judis and Teixeira argue, is the Democrats’ “shadow occasion”—advocacy teams, assume tanks, foundations, and different donors in addition to liberal media which have pushed the occasion towards positions that make no sense to working-class voters. Principally, Judis and Teixeira assume that neoliberal economics and cultural radicalism make a lethal mixture, interesting to an elite however to not the mass of voters. They need Democrats to maneuver left on economics and towards the middle on tradition to recreate the politics that sustained the New Deal.” • Ah, the NGOs. Judis and Teixiera, then, are additionally attacking the PMC. Similar to Rasmussen. How you are able to do evaluation of the working class with out making capital, named as such, a part of the image… It’s like doing astrology in a pre-Copernican universe.

Information of the Wired

Like “bug”:

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