2:00PM Water Cooler 2/8/2024 | bare capitalism

Rick Hasen Stay Weblog of Oral Arguments in Trump Disqualification Case at Supreme Courtroom (Refresh This Web page Regularly for Updates), Election Regulation Weblog

Stay Oral Argument Audio, Supreme Courtroom of the US

Hat tip to alert reader GH for going via the amici briefs; maybe the questions will reveal which briefs the Justices (and their clerks) engaged with.

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“Part Three Is Not A ‘Political Query’” [Reason]. “We observe that within the Trump v. Anderson litigation, each the Colorado District and the Colorado Supreme Courtroom discovered Part Three to be justiciable and Trump has not pressed a political query argument in his Supreme Courtroom deserves briefs.” • This time Trump appears to have competent counsel, in order that’s that. A counter-argument Trump’s legal professionals haven’t made:

Professor Baude, addressing your just-written “political” argument, the Framers’ brilliantly-worded inclusion of a “Home Tranquility” goal should at all times be correctly understood as a “political” reference, in addition to a permission for politically-sensitive circumstances to be tried…

— Eastman (@EffEastman) February 7, 2024

“The Solely Manner Trump Stays on the Poll Is that if the Supreme Courtroom Rejects the Structure” [John Nichols, The Nation]. • Nichols makes the drained argument that figuring out if a candidate is an insurrectionist is so simple as figuring out their age. And by drained, I imply deeply bogus to anyone not taking The Nation Petri Dish Cruise. To repeat: Riot is against the law underneath 18 U.S. Code § 2383.” If figuring out whether or not Trump was an insurrectionist have been reduce and dried, Trump would have been charged with it. Why didn’t Jack Smith or anyone else do this? As a result of they checked out Trump’s fingers and thought they weren’t all that brief? As a result of they didn’t assume they may win the case, that’s why. And if Nichols thinks disqualifying a candidate on any normal much less than “past an inexpensive doubt” is a recipe for both “set up[ing] justice” or “insur[ing] home tranquility” (United States Structure, Preamble), I’ve obtained a bridge I’d wish to promote you. Musical interlude.

“‘Judged by historical past’: Trump’s 14th Modification combat at Supreme Courtroom poses an unlimited check for John Roberts” [CNN]. “For any chief justice, the most effective consequence is often one which yields a unanimous vote – or one thing near it. In terms of the election case, many specialists imagine his best path might be a slender choice through which Trump stays on the poll and the Supreme Courtroom avoids sweeping conclusions about Trump’s actions. ‘It will be a lot better if it was unanimous and it didn’t seem like a partisan choice,’ mentioned Tom Ginsburg, a professor on the College of Chicago Regulation Faculty and co-author of a 2018 ebook about the specter of democratic decay. ‘The problem for Roberts is to take a jurisprudential route that can get 9 votes.’ Which will contain in search of authorized “off ramps” that settle the case in a restricted means. The court docket, for example, may rule that the riot ban doesn’t apply to presidents or that it requires a legislation from Congress to be enforced.

“6 key questions in Supreme Courtroom combat over Trump’s poll eligibility” [Politico]. “The trial court docket decide who heard proof within the Colorado case concluded that the occasions did quantity to an riot — and simply so. Increased courts are often extremely deferential to that type of fact-finding. About 1,300 felony circumstances have been filed over the occasions of Jan. 6. Nobody has been charged with committing the particular crime of riot, although about 14 have been charged with or pleaded responsible to a associated cost of seditious conspiracy. Notably, when the Justice Division, via particular counsel Jack Smith, introduced a felony case in opposition to Trump final August over his efforts to subvert the 2020 election, there was additionally no riot cost.” • Odd, eh?

“Supreme Courtroom may toss Trump eligibility dispute to Congress” [Roll Call]. “Trump and Republican members of Congress have argued in briefs that the 14th Modification requires Congress to approve ‘implementing laws’ to authorize enforcement of Part 3. The Colorado Republican Celebration additionally has backed that argument that the so-called riot clause is ‘not self-executing,’ which signifies that Congress should go a legislation to allow people to sue underneath the supply. A Supreme Courtroom choice that sided with that argument would depart it to Congress to go such a invoice earlier than anybody — Trump in addition to different candidates in future elections — may very well be barred from holding workplace underneath the 14th Modification. The political realities on Capitol Hill make that exceedingly unlikely throughout this presidential marketing campaign, however the query would stay open going ahead.” • There are various extra entertaining eventualities within the article, however that one appears the most certainly.

“The Supreme Courtroom’s Colorado Trump Check” [Wall Street Journal]. The case for Trump, concluding: “The very best course for the nation can be for the Justices to settle this case on the slender authorized points, and to not enter the political combat over whether or not Jan. 6 was an riot.” Baude and Paulsen dispute this, as they have to. And the Trump crew doesn’t make the argument that riot is a political query. However extra: “The Justices don’t have to go there in the event that they discover that Part 3 doesn’t cowl the President. A 9-0 choice would ship a unified message to the nation that Colorado is fallacious on the legislation.” • It will, however a lot depends upon the character of the choice. My guess is that there might be a number of yammering about court-packing.

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“One other Trump case on the Supreme Courtroom? His argument for immunity may very well be a tricky promote” [USA Today]. “A 3-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Courtroom of Appeals on Tuesday forcefully rejected Trump’s declare of immunity from prosecution for the potential crimes tied to attempting to remain in workplace regardless of shedding the election…. U.S. District Decide Tanya Chutkan had scheduled Trump’s trial for March 4, however suspended pre-trial deadlines and finally postponed the trial date as Trump’s enchantment unfolded. The appeals court docket mentioned the suspension will expire Monday until Trump asks the Supreme Courtroom to maintain it in place by then. At that time, it is going to be as much as the excessive court docket whether or not to maintain the case on maintain whereas it decides whether or not to listen to the case. ‘It places the Supreme Courtroom within the scorching seat, provides Trump solely six days to write down this petition on an emergency foundation, and it’s going to be some of the vital issues that the Supreme Courtroom does in relation to the 2024 election,’ mentioned Rick Hasen, a professor and election legislation skilled on the College of California, Irvine Faculty of Regulation.” • I want I may 100% reject Trump’s immunity declare. Nevertheless, in some Third World nations, legal guidelines are written with a view towards later entrapping political enemies (I suppose the Radical Republicans did one thing like that to Andrew Johnson with the “Tenure of Workplace Act”). I’d veiew this chance as extraordinarily distant, have been it not for the truth that the New York legislation that enabled E. Jean Carroll to sue him, which was handed by a Democrat legislature and signed by a Democrat governor, appeared tailor-made to allow her to take action (perilously near a invoice of attainder). In nations the place the rule of legislation is an actual factor, Presidential immunity is unnecessary in any respect. In nations have been lawfare is the rule, perhaps it does.

“Jurors, Not Voters, Might Give Biden a Second Time period” [By Ron Faucheu, CNN]. FIling this right here, and never 2024. “The latest Bloomberg/Morning Seek the advice of ballot of seven crucial swing states exhibits Trump receiving 48% of the mixed vote and Biden getting 42%. The survey additionally finds that if Trump is convicted of against the law, 18% of his personal voters in these key states can be unwilling, very or considerably, to stay with him. Which will look like a small quantity, however in electoral phrases, it may very well be decisive: If Trump loses 18% of his present vote in swing states, he drops from 48% to a bit over 39% – a quantity low sufficient for Biden, at 42%, to overhaul him. You ask: If Trump loses votes primarily based on a responsible verdict, the place would these voters go? Biden wouldn’t get many, if any. A portion may keep house and never vote, which hurts Republican candidates down poll. The largest chunk of disaffected Trump voters would probably transfer to unbiased candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., who Republicans regard favorably and extensively view as a protest automobile. Bloomberg/Morning Seek the advice of polling finds that fifty% of Trump’s present supporters in key states have optimistic emotions towards Kennedy, with far fewer holding adverse views. This situation, removed from sure however nonetheless attainable, would give Kennedy an opportunity to run up his vote whole increased than present polls point out. However so long as the race is seen as a aggressive Trump-Biden contest, any Trump losses in the end assist Biden win.” • “The Supreme Courtroom leads the election returns….”

“Justice Jackson has weighed in on extra authorized questions of Jan. 6 rioting than some other Supreme Courtroom member” [CNN]. “Then-Decide Jackson in the end handed the rioter circumstances she was assigned off to different judges when she left the [DC] district court docket after President Joe Biden elevated her to the DC Circuit Courtroom of Appeals. However her statements from the interval instantly following the assault supply a sign of how she would possibly method the riot within the Trump poll case. ‘Lots of the attendees of this rally have been lured to the Capitol Constructing itself,’ she mentioned at a March 2021 listening to for Texas rioter Christopher Grider (he was later convicted). ‘They participated in what many students and commentators have characterised as an armed riot … If there’s a extra severe offense by way of who we’re as a society and the democratic order that’s on the core of our constitutional scheme, I don’t know what’s.’”

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“A Authorized Outsider, an Offbeat Concept and the Destiny of the 2024 Election” [New York Times]. “On the planet of American authorized scholarship, Seth Barrett Tillman is an outsider in additional methods than one. An affiliate professor at a college in Eire, he has put ahead uncommon interpretations of the which means of the U.S. Structure that for years have largely gone ignored — if not outright dismissed as crackpot. However at 60, Professor Tillman is having fun with some degree of vindication. When the U.S. Supreme Courtroom considers on Thursday whether or not former President Donald J. Trump is barred from Colorado’s major poll, a seemingly counterintuitive principle that Professor Tillman has championed for greater than 15 years will take heart stage and will form the presidential election. The Structure makes use of numerous phrases to discuss with authorities officers or places of work. The standard view is that all of them share the identical which means. However by his account, every is distinct — and that, crucially for the case earlier than the court docket, the actual phrase ‘officer of the US’ refers solely to appointed positions, not the presidency.” • I just like the human curiosity tales, this dude, the 91-year-old woman, Graber, however I believe the elemental query is that this: Why did the Democrat fraction of the political class immediately and pervasively body the Capitol Hill riot as a quote-unquote “riot”? I don’t keep in mind the primary instance of this “classification wrestle,” however I wrote in opposition to that attribute solely 16 days after January 6, “The Organizational Capability and Behavioral Traits of the Capitol Rioters (First Reduce)“, concluding:

So, now that we’ve seemed on the organizational capability of the rioters (poor) and behavioral traits (inexplicable to me, which doesn’t imply inexplicable), what once more was the Capitol Seizure? Provided that the question-and-answer “What’s the plan? I don’t know” appears correct, “riot” appears way more acceptable than “riot,” not to mention “coup.”

Such “education habits” is very attribute of the PMC, even moreso within the political class, however the impetus is unknown. Maybe the Election Integrity Venture’s wargame?

Biden Administration

“A State of the Union for the Center Class” [William Galston, Wall Street Journal]. “This brings me to what for you should be essentially the most bitter capsule: Operating in your document in all probability received’t be sufficient to win. Whereas your record of legislative accomplishments is lengthy, lots of the results received’t be obvious till properly after the election, and what voters see now hasn’t persuaded them that you just advantage a second time period. This cussed truth results in my core recommendation: Your State of the Union tackle ought to focus totally on the long run. Listed below are two examples of what you possibly can supply. First, you need to underscore your dedication to assault excessive costs head-on. You’ve made begin by capping the price of insulin, enabling Medicare to barter drug costs, and going after junk charges. However as I’ve argued in earlier columns, you need to increase the battle to incorporate persistently excessive meals costs, which mirror (amongst different components) oligopolies in key meals sectors corresponding to meat and poultry and choices by main meals firms to keep up their expanded revenue margins lengthy after pandemic disruptions disappeared. Your administration has had little to say about excessive housing prices, which stop many {couples} with younger youngsters from shopping for their first houses. Governors across the nation are starting to handle this drawback, and you need to too… Second: Roughly 6 in 10 voters haven’t accomplished a four-year school diploma and received’t ever accomplish that. It is advisable supply them a reputable plan to boost their incomes and social mobility. A school diploma represents one path to the center class, however, as you have got rightly insisted, it shouldn’t be the one one.” • Do it, or Trump will?

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

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Trump(R): “Inside Donald Trump’s Unimaginable Money Crunch” [Daily Beast]. “Donald Trump is simply days away from getting slammed with a court docket judgment that may very well be value tons of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} as a punishment for his many years of financial institution fraud with the Trump Group. And two little-known New York legal guidelines may go away Trump scrambling for money: a requirement that he instantly entrance the cash to enchantment the choice, and a sky-high state rate of interest. Throughout a deposition with the New York Lawyer Normal in April 2023, Trump boasted that he had $400 million in money, bragging about the way it’s ‘so much for a developer.’ However even when that have been true, it probably received’t be sufficient to concurrently cowl final month’s $83 million verdict at his rape defamation trial—which he wants to instantly put aside to enchantment that case—and the $370 million demanded by the AG for his incessant mendacity to banks. Whereas the decide deciding the financial institution fraud case hasn’t provide you with a ultimate determine that Trump owes, each indication is that it is going to be into the tons of of thousands and thousands. A message from the decide on Tuesday truly steered it may very well be much more than what the New York AG is looking for. Trump’s sudden money calls for are exacerbated by a quirk in New York legislation. Not solely would the judgment get robotically inflated by an unusually excessive rate of interest of 9 %, however Trump would want to offer the court docket the enlarged whole—plus an additional 10 to twenty %—as a way to enchantment and have one other day in court docket. And it could all be due by mid-March.”

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Biden (D): “Biden labeled doc probe ends with out fees” [Politico]. “Whatever the findings of Hur’s probe, felony fees for Biden have been unlikely due to longstanding Justice Division authorized opinions successfully precluding fees in opposition to a sitting president.” • Wait. Don’t all of the arguments for indicting a President after they’re out of workplace apply for when they’re in workplace? Rule of Regulation, and so forth?

Biden (D): “Biden claims German chief who died in 2017 attended 2021 G7 assembly – as he mixes up useless European chief in SAME story for second time in a WEEK” [Daily Mail]. “President Joe Biden has once more claimed he was talking with a useless dignitary on the 2021 G7 Summit – marking the second time in every week the president has appeared to reference assembly a deceased chief. The 81-year-old president, talking in Las Vegas Monday, informed an anecdote about attending the summit in England in June 2021, the place he referenced chatting with French President Francois Mitterrand, who died in 1996, as an alternative of present chief Emmanuel Macron.”

Williamson (D): “Longshot Biden challenger Marianne Williamson drops out of race: ‘A lot to be thankful for’” [FOX]. “Longshot Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson has suspended her presidential marketing campaign. Williamson introduced that she’s going to now not be pursuing the White Home in 2024 in a video posted to X, previously Twitter, Wednesday evening. ‘I learn a quote the opposite day that mentioned that sunsets are proof that endings might be stunning too, and so in the present day, though it’s time to droop my marketing campaign for the presidency, I do need to see the wonder and I need all of you who so extremely supported me on this journey – as donors, as supporters, as crew and as volunteers – to see the wonder too,’ she opened the video saying.”

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“Democrats sound alarm, take motion in opposition to Biden’s third-party threats” [WaPo]. On RFK Jr. on the upcoming Libertarian convention in CA: “I get the sensation that he [Junior] desires to really feel it [the ballot line] out,’ mentioned Angela McArdle, the chair of the Libertarian Nationwide Committee, which has welcomed the eye. ‘We love the brave stance he took in opposition to lockdowns and mandates, however overseas coverage is the most important hurdle that he has to beat.’”

The five-way (from 270toWin):

I’ll have to trace this; the factor to look at for is a sluggish enhance in RFK Jr’s share.

Attention-grabbing chart on media mentions (from Brookings):

RFK Jr. appears low.

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“Lawmakers see blue-collar voters as key in Biden-Trump rematch” [Roll Call]. “Working-class voters of in the present day are like these of the twentieth century in that many lack a university diploma. However they’re completely different as a result of many are now not working in unionized manufacturing jobs, which have declined considerably in latest many years. These days, the broad time period covers staff in industries like retail, private providers, well being care, meals providers and related sectors. And lately, many usually are not members of a labor union — however they do have a political desire. ‘Whereas working class voters harbor reservations about each political events, they align extra with Republicans than with Democrats on a lot of the issues that concern them,’ based on the Brookings Establishment’s William Galston, a former Clinton White Home aide. In New Hampshire’s GOP major, Trump dominated amongst voters with no school diploma, based on knowledge compiled by The New York Occasions. As a result of purpose to in the future begin their very own enterprise, hurdles like allowing and rules imply ‘they’re much less instinctively pro-government than have been members of the working class within the lengthy period of Democratic dominance that stretched from the Thirties via the Sixties,’ Galston added.” • I believe “many” is doing a number of work, there. Onerous to think about constructions staff whinging about hard-hat rules, for instance. Or railworkers wanting much less regulation? I don’t assume so.

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Realignment and Legitimacy

“These Are Individuals” [Atrios, Eschaton]. “One among my agency perception is that our politics can be tremendously improved by shutting off cable information in Congressional places of work. This was apparent to me 20 years or so in the past after I first paid a go to to a few of these places of work. Issues like ‘the border disaster’ are a disaster as a result of they’re on teevee, not due to something actual, and whereas I don’t assume my private politics are universally standard, I don’t assume permitting your self to be led round by the worst individuals on this planet (conservatives, shitty political journalists, and the democratic mercenary guide class) is the sensible play, both.” • Atrios left the spooks off his record (and the NGOs (and the Censorship Industrial Complicated))

“An area redistricting battle in a New York Metropolis suburb might result in a nationwide combat” [NPR]. “In Nassau County, voters of shade and white voters are inclined to want completely different candidates. And the variety of individuals figuring out as white and never Hispanic has dropped greater than 11% over the previous decade, as Black, Latino and Asian American residents now make up greater than a 3rd of eligible voters. However on the present map for the county legislature, these voters of shade make up nearly all of eligible voters in solely 4 out of 19 districts, or lower than 1 / 4. The map’s challengers argue there ought to be six such districts. ‘The white voice at all times appears to overpower our voices. And I really feel like if we’re not represented as entire, the consultant will go to that highly effective white voice earlier than they hearken to our considerations,’ says Jordan-Awalom, who desires to maintain her village united in a single voting district. ‘We’ve had the identical combat for therefore lengthy, so clearly we’re not being heard. And I believe it has to alter.’ That change, she hopes, will come via an unprecedented means of immediately difficult a neighborhood voting map underneath a state voting rights act — an rising software that advocates hope might help fortify the rights of voters of shade as opponents proceed to chip away at protections in opposition to racial discrimination underneath the federal Voting Rights Act of 1965.”

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Morbidity and Mortality

“Extra natural-cause mortality in US counties and its affiliation with reported COVID-19 deaths” [PNAS]. “Within the current research, we estimated that roughly 1.2 million extra natural-cause deaths occurred in US counties throughout the first 30 mo of the pandemic. Practically 163,000 of those extra natural-cause deaths weren’t reported to COVID-19. The relative hole between extra natural-cause mortality and reported COVID-19 mortality was largest in nonmetropolitan counties, the West, and the South. Opposite to prior literature which indicated that these gaps have been principally restricted to the early months of the pandemic, we discovered practically as many extra deaths reported to non-COVID-19 pure causes within the pandemic’s second 12 months as the primary 12 months… Within the current research, we examined temporal correlations between reported COVID-19 deaths and extra deaths reported to non-COVID-19 pure causes. In practically all Census divisions and metropolitan–nonmetropolitan classes, we discovered that will increase in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated with will increase in extra deaths reported to non-COVID-19 pure causes in the identical or prior month (optimistic correlation at a lag of 0 and/or −1 mo). In lots of Census Divisions and metropolitan–nonmetropolitan, we additionally noticed that will increase in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated with decreases in extra deaths reported to non-COVID-19 pure causes… The temporal correlations we noticed counsel that many extra deaths reported to non-COVID-19 pure causes throughout the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the US have been unrecognized COVID-19 deaths. Neighborhood-level consciousness of COVID-19 mortality threat modified markedly with native peaks in reported COVID-19 deaths in ways in which affected testing and surveillance, regardless of excessive consciousness of the pandemic general.” • Useful map:

Curiously, the problematic areas aren’t practically as concentrated within the former Confederacy as they so usually are, in circumstances like this,

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new in the present day; all others usually are not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] Sure, up, however we’ll need to wait till subsequent week to see if there are backward revisions. I’d be extra comfy if some positivity figures have been up, too, or the ER (UPDATE: It’s not). Verily knowledge, FWIW, additionally suggests a rise:

[2] Biobot knowledge suggests an increase within the Northeast. MRWA knowledge doesn’t counsel that:

I additionally tried Verily’s regional knowledge and CDC’s mapm however I wasn’t assured I used to be seeing a sign in both.

[3] “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge might be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] Doesn’t assist Biobot knowledge. “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even moving into the standard of the wastewater websites that we’ve got as a proxy for Covid an infection general.

[5] Lower for the town now not aligns with wastewater knowledge (if certainly Biobot’s spike is actual).

[6] Nonetheless down “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and obtained examined anyhow.

[8] Lambert right here: Proportion and absolute numbers down.

[9] Up, albeit within the rear view mirror.

Stats Watch

“United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of individuals claiming unemployment advantages within the US fell by 9,000 to 218,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised worth within the February 2nd report, barely under estimates of 220,000 however remaining firmly above the typical from the final two months. Within the meantime, persevering with claims eased by 23,000 to 1,871,000 within the final week of January. Regardless of remaining firmly above the typical from the final two months, the figures proceed to level to a slowing albeit robust labor market.”

Tech: “FCC Makes AI-Generated Voices in Robocalls Unlawful” [FCC]. “The FCC introduced the unanimous adoption of a Declaratory Ruling that acknowledges calls made with AI-generated voices are “synthetic” underneath the Phone Client Safety Act (TCPA).”

As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 76 Greed (earlier shut: 75 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 62 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 8 at 1:33:37 PM ET.

The Conservatory

“Carmina Burana” [Michael Smith, Crying in the Wilderness]. Program notes: “Carmina has been standard for a very long time, and everyone has heard not less than a few of it. It’s simple to love. To say that it’s accessible, nevertheless, is to not say that it’s trivial. The mediaeval origin of the texts clearly steered some mediaeval compositional strategies – organum and fauxbourdon, and plenty of parallel octaves and fourths and fifths. Melodic traces usually recall liturgical chant. The harmonic texture might be shaggy, but it surely’s by no means arbitrary, and the voice-leading is at all times logical, although not at all times easy. However a sure edgy angularity appears to have been what Orff was going for. The insistent rhythm is rarely monotonous, and Orff makes certain to depart just a few bumps within the street, simply to maintain us all on our toes. He has his personal idiosyncratic means of notating time signatures, and he switches deal amongst measures of three beats, and 4 beats, and 5 and 6 beats. One way or the other he stitches these collectively in a means that appears affordable and discursive fairly than punitive (and there are different composers who fall into the latter class). Particularly, the enlargement of the measure in Carmina usually appears to be a means of lending emphasis to some portion of the textual content.” • I noticed the Philadelphia Orchestra play Carmina, again within the day, It was definitely rousing! What the heck, it’s solely an hour lengthy:

Don’t strive listening throughout your afternoon nap, although!

Guillotine Watch

“Decabillionaire Dynasties: These Are The Richest Households In America” [Forbes]. “At a time when markets and asset values are hovering, and the variety of billionaires appears to multiply by the day, Forbes determined to up the ante and rank solely these households value $10 billion or extra. Forty-five multigenerational households made the reduce. Altogether they’re value a mixed $1.3 trillion. By comparability, simply 36 households have been value $10 billion or extra in 2020, the final time Forbes counted up the fortunes of America’s richest households. These and are primarily based out of hometowns starting from Louisville, Kentucky to Wichita, Kansas to Racine, Wisconsin. However there are particular locations the place extra of them might be discovered. New York Metropolis, house to the descendants of make-up mogul Estée Lauder (d. 2004) and publishing legend William Randolph Hearst (d. 1951) in addition to the Rockefellers, has essentially the most with seven. Chicago (4 households) and Atlanta (three households) spherical out the highest three.” Clans, like I’ve mentioned. Extra: “Not all households have fared as properly. 4 clans who have been value greater than $10 billion in 2020 have since misplaced their decabillionaire standing. Amongst them: Purdue Pharma’s Sackler household (estimated web value: $5.2 billion), whose supply to settle all OxyContin-related civil claims in opposition to them for $6 billion has been appealed to the Supreme Courtroom. The descendants of New York actual property moguls Sol Goldman (d. 1987) and his brother Irving Goldman (d. 1995) additionally dropped $7.7 billion to an estimated $5.5 billion fortune, attributable to considerably decrease property valuations revealed as a part of an intrafamily authorized dispute amongst Sol’s youngsters.”

Class Warfare

Class consciousness:

Jogs my memory of this traditional clip:

Information of the Wired

“My experiment in phonelessness was a failure. It additionally modified my life” [Guardian]. ” I’m at present on my telephone for 90 minutes a day. 5 of these are spent on Instagram. I now not really feel addicted.” Oh. Extra: “One other sluggish burn has been the rise in time spent studying. I believe it’s additionally the explanation I now not lose entire days on Instagram. Opening any social media apps now, they strike me as … foolish. Possibly focus actually is a muscle – that hungers to elevate heavier issues as you construct it. In fact, loads of individuals take pleasure in each. This isn’t to say all social media content material is shallow and pointless! (Although I do assume that!)” And: “For any capitalism followers, I have to observe that my freelance earnings has risen, and I’m extra productive. I don’t discover it useful to vilify tech firms a lot, and now not personify my telephone. The shiny, infinite-content machine shouldn’t be a muse, chilly lover or nemesis. It’s a software. Greater than anything, it’s a barometer of my discontent. After I discover that weight in my hand, the pull towards distraction and escape, I attempt to diagnose what’s actually occurring with me.”

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Carla:

Carla writes: “Some massive vegetation silhouetted in a January dawn — uncommon in Cleveland! (The winter dawn, not the bushes!)” Wow!!

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Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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