By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Hen Tune of the Day
Home Wren, Kingston Canyon Rd., Lander, Nevada, United States.
Search for the Helpers
Not merely due to their masks:
Nurses in a Taiwan Hospital defending infants throughout Earthquake pic.twitter.com/I66wVRdMME
— Bonjour (@imromec) April 3, 2024
My e mail tackle is down by the plant; please ship examples of “Helpers” there. In our more and more determined and fragile neoliberal society, on a regular basis regular incidents and tales of “the communism of on a regular basis life” are what I’m in search of (and never, say, the Crimson Cross in Hawaii, and even the UNWRA in Gaza).
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
RCP Ballot Averages, March 29
I feel I’ll depart this up till this coming Friday, so I can no less than mumble one thing about developments. Nationally, Trump is up 2.4% within the 5-Means, identical as final week, give or take. Trump continues to be up in all of the Swing States (extra right here). I’ve highlighted PA, (1) as a result of Trump is definitely down there, and (2) it’s an outlier, has been for weeks. Why isn’t Trump doing properly there?
* * * Trump (R): “As normal election heats up, Trump camp prepares to be frozen in court docket” [Semafor]. “One of many issues the marketing campaign must type by means of is scheduling. Up till now, Trump has solely been seated in court docket for a number of days at a time — and oftentimes, it’s been of his personal volition, with the marketing campaign seeing his presence as a solution to merge the authorized and marketing campaign battles whereas heightening Trump’s claims of political persecution for Republican major voters. Now, although, group Trump is readying for his or her candidate to be required in court docket a number of days every week, for weeks at a time, which can make organizing constant marketing campaign occasions that a lot tougher. ‘That is simply the development of the place the marketing campaign season is headed into,’ one aide mentioned. ‘Definitely, he’ll should be in court docket fairly a number of days out of the week, and that’s by no means a really perfect factor. We’d by no means want to be in that place, in fact.’ However his group nonetheless believes there’s ‘ample alternative’ to work round these limitations: Based mostly on the choose’s public schedule, they imagine Trump, who’s prone to camp out at Trump Tower throughout trial days, may have Wednesdays off, which means the previous president might take part in campaign-related occasions that day or on Tuesday evenings. The marketing campaign additionally famous that they’ll have weekends to work with — and left open the potential of doing mini-trips to neighboring states on court docket days, too.” • Trump might conduct a “entrance porch marketing campaign” from the steps for Trump Tower!
* * * Biden (D): “Joe Biden can’t get out of the outlet he’s already dug for himself” [New York Post]. “However you’d a lot moderately be the place Trump is within the polls proper now than the place Biden is. Trump was by no means on this robust a place at any level within the 2016 or 2020 elections. At this stage in 2020, Biden was up 4 factors in Michigan, 3 in Wisconsin and North Carolina and a pair of in Pennsylvania. At this level in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 10 in Michigan and Wisconsin, 9 in Pennsylvania and a pair of in North Carolina — and she or he misplaced all 4 states.” And: “But Biden refuses to alter course or change his message: The financial system is nice, Trump is a menace to democracy, and abortion, abortion, abortion. These marketing campaign ways helped Democrats keep away from what ought to have been a a lot worse loss in 2022, however they nonetheless misplaced the nationwide in style vote in Home races [they did] — and a repeat of that displaying would imply President Trump: The Sequel. However don’t count on an previous canine to study new methods.” • Simply as long as he doesn’t chunk anyone!
* * * Kennedy (I): “Column: Trump’s vice presidential present and Kennedy’s kamikaze mission” [Los Angeles Times]. On Kennedy’s probabilities of successful: “I might say slim to none — however slim was final seen paddling as far and quick as potential away from the Kennedy compound in Hyannis Port, Mass. (A lot of Kennedy’s household fervently oppose his bid and help Biden’s reelection.) So I might enterprise to say there’s completely no probability.” Who positive aspects and who loses with Kennedy working: “That’s unclear. His platform — a farrago of liberal and conservative views mashed up with a large number of conspiracy-laden pottage, isn’t simply categorized. He might attraction to each disaffected Democrats and Republicans.” • Within the “change vs. extra of the identical” framework, nevertheless, Kennedy is certainly in “change,” as is Trump. And Biden is in “extra of the identical” (“essentially nothing would change“).
* * * Kennedy (I): “The ‘Conventional Organizing’ Election?” [Campaigns & Elections]. “Sdd one other voice to the “subject can be essential in 2024″ dialogue: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. The impartial presidential candidate instructed CNN this week that his marketing campaign has deployed some 200,000 volunteers to assist him acquire poll entry in all 50 states. ‘We now have a really, superb volunteer military on the market,’ he mentioned. ‘We have already got the most important subject operation of any marketing campaign. We’re going to haven’t any drawback getting on the poll in each state.’” Perhaps. Extra: “Presently, the candidate is just confirmed to be on the poll in Utah, and whereas his marketing campaign claims to have the wanted signatures for poll entry in North Carolina (and a handful of different states) poll entry for Kennedy stays a really uphill battle. Whereas Kennedy was speaking up the power of his personal operation, consultants have additionally been calling for funding in subject organizing, and speaking up how crucial will probably be for campaigns to spice up spending on organizing packages this cycle…. ‘It’s 67,000 votes,’ [Jeff Roe, founder of Axiom Strategies, recently told C&E] mentioned, referencing the distinction between Hillary Clinton and President Trump’s vote totals in deciding states in 2016. ‘The funding in these six, perhaps seven states on the bottom motivating individuals to vote for his or her occasion desire goes to be the entire sport.’ A part of the explanation why that funding is so essential is due to how exhausting it’s to string the needle to achieve the appropriate individuals with an efficient TV advert. ‘,’ he mentioned. ‘After which you’ve streaming, which simply handed linear TV final yr — and half of that’s not advert supported.’” • That statistic on video and TV watching is essentially the most encouraging quantity I’ve seen in a while.
Kennedy (I): “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. isn’t just a ‘spoiler candidate’” [The Berkshire Edge]. Letter to the Editor from Kennedy’s Berkshire County marketing campaign coordinator. “Staff Kennedy has over 12,000 volunteers and supporters already registered in Massachusetts. And the hassle to get the ten,000-plus signatures to get RFK Jr. on the poll—in order that People have their democratically protected decisions—can be starting shortly. Anybody excited by volunteering or simply studying extra in regards to the insurance policies and platform of the Kennedy-Shanahan Ticket can go to kennedy24.com.” • Good staffwork. Right here is the poll entry web page for Kennedy’s website; I clicked on “Massachusetts” to double-check the ten,000 determine:
Appears to be like informative {and professional}. Additionally, July 30 may be very far-off if Kennedy has the cash and catches fireplace with volunteers; very shut if he doesn’t.
NC: Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr. is formally becoming a member of the NC poll” [CarolinaCoastOnline]. “The newly shaped We The Individuals political occasion gathered greater than 23,000 signatures, far above the requirement to achieve poll entry, with over a month to spare and a 60% buffer to guard in opposition to invalid signatures. .” • And I’m certain there’s a military of legal professionals defending “our democracy” by disputing these signatures whilst we communicate. (Additionally, the 60% margin appears truthful, which means that the ten,000 determine for MA is absolutely 16,000.)
NC: Kennedy (I): “How North Carolina’s presidential election adjustments if RFK Jr. is on the poll” [Charlotte Observer]. “Nonetheless, Kennedy’s presence on the poll might have a significant affect on the end result of the election, particularly in a swing state like North Carolina. Whereas Trump carried North Carolina within the 2020 election, it was his lowest margin of victory in any state. He gained it by solely a 1.34% margin, and it was the one state by which he gained with lower than 50% of the vote.Anticipating one more shut race in 2024, each the Biden and Trump campaigns are making North Carolina a precedence. It wouldn’t take a lot to seal the end result in both candidate’s favor — and .” And: “Most polls at the moment present Trump with a lead over Biden in North Carolina, and that lead grows when third-party candidates like Kennedy are included on the poll, ballot averages present. A brand new Wall Road Journal ballot revealed this week confirmed Trump with a six-point lead in North Carolina on a check poll that features third-party and impartial candidates.”
* * * Kennedy (I): “Terrified Mother and father, New Age Well being Nuts, MAGA Exiles. Meet the R.F.Okay. Jr. Devoted.” [Michelle Goldberg, New York Times]. “[O]n the bottom, I haven’t met many Kennedy-curious voters for whom Biden is a second selection. As an alternative, Kennedy attracts lots of the identical type of alienated political eccentrics who up to now have gravitated to Trump. ‘They hold saying that he’s pulling from Biden, however most of our persons are really coming from the appropriate,’ mentioned Leigh Merinoff, volunteer chair of the finance committee of American Values. Anecdotes aren’t the identical factor as information, and individuals who go to rallies and volunteer for campaigns aren’t essentially consultant of the citizens, which is filled with people who find themselves rather more disengaged. Nonetheless, there’s a spot between each Democratic and Republican assumptions about Kennedy’s attraction and the character of his real-life motion. He’s rather more of a wild card than left-wing third-party candidates like Stein and Cornel West. There’s one thing distinctly Trumpy in his marketing campaign’s mixture of New Age individualism, social media-fueled paranoia and intense, aching nostalgia for the optimistic America of the early Sixties, when Kennedy’s uncle John F. Kennedy was president and his father, Robert F. Kennedy, served as legal professional normal. It’s not stunning that some in any other case Trump-leaning voters are choosing up on it.” • So, Kennedy voters are deplorables too?! (As for as
* * * Kennedy (I): “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s working mate and the vaccine wars” [Glenn Kessler, WaPo]. 4 Pinocchios: “Shanahan doesn’t fairly say that vaccines trigger autism, however she implies it, demanding a examine that’s not possible as a result of it will be unethical. She cites numbers that declare that autism has spiked, with out acknowledging the primary purpose is as a result of the definition of autism has been drastically expanded. That is textbook anti-vaccine rhetoric. The general impact is to forged doubt on the protection of vaccines. She earns 4 Pinocchios.” • I so, so don’t need to get entangled in that discourse; there appears to be a definite lack of excellent religion members, and don’t @ me.
Kennedy (I): That’s the stuff to provide the troops:
Mothers are the unsung heroes of our society. They juggle all of it with out fanfare or accolades. They do it for the love of their kids — a love higher than some other.
Waking as much as the realities of the power well being epidemic is painful as a result of it’s exhausting to fathom that our… pic.twitter.com/4EWTSqVqnm
— Nicole Shanahan (@NicoleShanahan) April 3, 2024
If Mothers are for us, who could be in opposition to us?
Kennedy (I): Shanahan on coverage:
My working mate Nicole Shanahan explains how the Kennedy/Shanahan ticket will finish the power illness epidemic:
“Whereas Bobby is concentrated on ending the company seize of our regulatory businesses, I’m going to assemble the most effective technologists and scientists on the earth and we… pic.twitter.com/v9kqLJKEFb
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) March 30, 2024
Sounds good “at a excessive degree,” as we are saying, however there are two issues past the Silicon Valley triumphalism: (1) We don’t actually have well being information databases; now we have databases categorizing putative well being therapies in medical amenities for cost functions, contaminated by upcoding, and (2) AI = BS (although I grant some sample recognition functions aren’t as pernicious because the ChatGPT department of the sector).
Kennedy (I): “How Nicole Shanahan, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s VP Choose, Acquired So Wealthy” [Forbes]. “Shanahan’s wealth comes from her earlier marriage to Sergey Brin, the Google cofounder whose internet price Forbes estimates at greater than $120 billion—sufficient to rank him because the tenth richest particular person on the earth.” And: “Divorce information usually are not clear on how a lot Shanahan walked away with, and neither she nor Brin responded to requests for remark, however Brin’s filings with the Securities and Trade Fee provide revealing data. The paperwork present a lower in his Class B shares of Alphabet (Google’s father or mother firm) totaling some 2.6 million shares someday between Might and December 2023. Throughout that interval, he didn’t report any share gross sales or presents, which might usually be required for Brin, an Alphabet director who owns greater than 5% of the corporate’s shares. In all probability, these shares, price about $390 million at present costs, went to Shanahan: Transfers because of divorce don’t have to be disclosed instantly in insider transaction filings, in line with 4 specialists contacted by Forbes.” And however: “Assuming that Brin’s SEC filings present a switch to Shanahan, she didn’t get near $1 billion in Class B shares. Nonetheless, Brin has traditionally executed parallel transactions for his Alphabet Class C shares—which don’t seem in annual possession filings as a result of they don’t have voting rights—promoting or gifting related numbers of Class B and Class C shares at related instances. If he adopted his typical sample and likewise transferred roughly 2.6 million Class C shares to Shanahan, then taken collectively, these 5.2 million shares can be price just below $800 million as we speak. Add in some other property she might have gotten within the cut up, like properties they lived in collectively or some money from Brin’s $900 million in Alphabet shares he offered throughout their marriage, and that would put her nearer to the $1 billion she wished. However even when Shanahan solely obtained the Class B shares, a fortune of round $400 million would nonetheless make her the wealthiest vice presidential choose in many years—doubtless since Nelson Rockefeller, Gerald Ford’s VP. .” • The important level.
Kennedy (I): “Tulsi Gabbard turned down RFK Jr.’s provide to be his working mate, she says” [ABC]. “Former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who left the Democratic Occasion in 2022, declined a proposal to be Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s working mate in his impartial presidential bid, she tells ABC Information. ‘I met with Kennedy a number of instances, and now we have turn out to be good mates,’ she mentioned in a press release. ‘He requested if I might be his working mate. After cautious consideration, I respectfully declined.’”
* * * PA: “F&M Ballot: Pennsylvania Shifting in Extra Optimistic Path” [Politics PA]. “The excellent news for President Joe Biden comes within the type of a two-horse race in opposition to former President Donald Trump. After touchdown inside the margin of error in opposition to the forty fifth president in February, the forty sixth president has greater than doubled the 4.0% margin of error (MOE) on this survey with a 48-38% % benefit.” Nonetheless: “When two different choices had been introduced to the respondents within the type of Jill Stein (Inexperienced) and Robert Kennedy Jr. (Unbiased), the race moved inside the MOE with Biden at 42% and Trump at 40%. Kennedy (9%) and Stein (3%) appeared to take extra help from Biden, who was at 42-37% with the identical query in February.”
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new as we speak; all others usually are not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out on the degree of earlier Trump peaks. Not a terrific victory. Observe additionally the world “below the curve,” apart from peaks. That space is bigger below Biden than below Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.
[2] (Biobot) Backward revisions, I hate them.
[3] (CDC Variants) As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information can be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I feel in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to verify. UPDATE Sure, depart it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal information, if any. I preferred the ER information, as a result of it appeared actually exhausting to sport…
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Appears to be like like a really gradual leveling off to a non-zero baseline, to me.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Flattening.
[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Now up, albeit within the rear view mirror.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates totally.
Stats Watch
Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of individuals claiming unemployment advantages within the US surged by 11,000 from the earlier week’s upwardly revised worth to 221,000 on the interval ending March thirtieth, essentially the most in two months, and properly above market expectations of 214,000. The end result urged a departure from an prolonged interval of low preliminary declare counts and contrasted in opposition to different robust labor stories launched this week, suggesting that tightness within the US labor market could also be absorbing the delayed affect of elevated rates of interest.”
Manufacturing: “Sen. Tammy Duckworth requires FAA assessment of Boeing’s failure to reveal 737 Max flight deck options to pilots” [CBS]. “Senator Tammy Duckworth is urging the Federal Aviation Administration to take a more in-depth have a look at the way it responds to what she says is a sample by Boeing of failing to reveal flight deck options of the 737 Max to pilots, in line with a letter to be despatched Thursday and obtained completely by CBS Information. Duckworth, Democrat of Illinois and chair of the Senate’s Aviation Security, Operations and Innovation Subcommittee, is looking on FAA Administrator Michael Whitaker to analyze why Alaska Airways pilots had been unaware the aircraft’s cockpit door was designed to robotically open throughout a fast depressurization — which is precisely what occurred on flight AS1282 when a door panel on a Boeing 737 Max 9 blew out mid-flight in early January. ‘Boeing’s failure to reveal this function is chilling given its historical past of concealing 737 MAX data from pilots,’ Duckworth writes. Nationwide Transportation Security Board Chair Jennifer Homendy instructed reporters following a Senate Commerce Committee listening to on January 17 that the flight crew ought to have been instructed in regards to the function. ‘No one knew about it. So it was an entire shock. And the flight crew must know,’ she mentioned, including, ‘figuring out this might happen is fairly key to security.’” • In the meantime, the common blackout of John Barnett’s assassination continues. How lengthy does it take to jot down up a police report? Or will we ever get one?
Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 67 Greed (earlier shut: 61 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 71 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Apr 4 at 1:57:59 PM ET.
Information of the Wired
“1,2,3,4,5” [The On-Line Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences“] “‘God made the integers; all else is the work of man.’ This well-known citation is a translation of ‘Die ganzen Zahlen hat der liebe Gott gemacht, alles andere ist Menschenwerk,’ spoken by Leopold Kronecker in a lecture on the Berliner Naturforscher-Versammlung in 1886. Presumably the primary publication of the assertion is in Heinrich Weber’s ‘Leopold Kronecker,’ Jahresberichte D.M.V. 2 (1893) 5-31.” • I’m amazed that there’s such a factor. It definitely passes the random opening check!
“Our instruments form our selves” [Aeon]. “In accordance with [French philosopher Bernard Stiegler], technics – the making and use of expertise, within the broadest sense – is what makes us human. Our distinctive manner of current on the earth, as distinct from different species, is outlined by the experiences and information our instruments make potential, whether or not that could be a state-of-the-art brain-computer interface resembling Neuralink, or a prehistoric flint axe used to clear a forest. However don’t be mistaken: ‘technics’ will not be merely one other phrase for ‘expertise’. As Martin Heidegger wrote in his essay ‘The Query Regarding Know-how’ (1954), which used the German time period Technik as an alternative of Technologie within the unique title: the ‘essence of expertise is in no way something technological.’ This aligns with the historical past of the phrase: the etymology of ‘technics’ leads us again to one thing like the traditional Greek time period for artwork – technē. The essence of expertise, then, will not be present in a tool, such because the one you’re utilizing to learn this essay. It’s an open-ended artistic course of, a relationship with our instruments and the world. That is Stiegler’s legacy. All through his life, he took this concept of technics, first explored whereas he was imprisoned for armed theft [whoa!], additional than anybody else.” And: “Within the late twentieth century, Stiegler started making use of this concept to new media applied sciences, resembling tv, which led to the event of an idea he referred to as pharmacology – an thought that implies we don’t merely ‘use’ our digital instruments. As an alternative, they enter and pharmacologically change us, like medicinal medication.” • Hmm.
Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are superb! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SR:
SR writes: “Extra bark.”
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives
Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
In the event you hate PayPal, you possibly can e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on how you can ship a test. Thanks!