By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Tune of the Day
Bullock’s/Baltimore Oriole, Tamarack Ranch, Logan, Colorado, United States. “Freeway noise.”
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
(1) North Carolina pulls the anti-mask invoice for what looks like rational revisions (should you settle for the cop-friendly, anti-protester side).
(2) New Trump protection journeys Cohen up, placing a conviction in danger.
(3) Peggy Noonan interviews a Wildwood, NY attendee.
(4) One other CDC atrocity.
(5) RCP averages: Trump continues gradual however regular advance in swing states.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than a half a 12 months to go!
RCP Ballot Averages, Might 17:
* * * Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Getting Performed: The Demolition of Cohen on Cross Examination Reveals ‘The Grift’ to a New York Jury” [Jonathan Turley]. “For any discerning juror, the trial has been conspicuously missing any clear assertion from the prosecutors of what crime Trump was making an attempt to commit by allegedly mischaracterizing funds as ‘authorized bills.’ Even liberal authorized consultants have continued to precise doubt over what crime is being alleged as the federal government rests its case. There’s additionally the failure of the prosecutors to ascertain that Trump even knew of how funds had been denoted or that these denotations had been truly fraudulent in denoting funds to a lawyer as authorized bills…. New Yorkers are a curious breed. Sure, they overwhelmingly hate Trump, however additionally they universally hate being handled like chumps. After they get this case, they only may look across the courtroom and resolve that they’re the suckers in a crooked recreation.”
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “On Trump and the Elusive Fantasy of a 2024 Election Recreation-Changer” [Susan Glasser, The New Yorker]. “A lot more durable to foretell is whether or not even a conviction on this case may lastly transfer the largely immovable American voters. Polls trace that the reply is simply perhaps sure, at the least amongst a small share of Republicans who don’t establish as a part of the Celebration’s most fervently pro-Trump maga base. In a Reuters/Ipsos ballot on the eve of the New York trial, for instance, twenty-four per cent of Republicans, together with 13 per cent of Trump supporters, stated that they might not help him in November if he was convicted of a felony. However, with the trial ending its fifth week and quickly shifting towards a verdict, expertise strongly means that some skepticism is so as. The story of the previous eight years is plagued by examples of Republicans accepting the beforehand unimaginable from Trump. Why ought to this time be any totally different?” •
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Michael Cohen on the Stand, Half I” [Lawfare]. Might 13: “You’re energetic on Twitter? Appropriate. And TikTok? Appropriate. You do a nightly stay TikTok? He’s stay on TikTok for greater than an hour nightly. What’s the purpose of doing it? To construct an viewers, to create neighborhood, to vent. I’m having bother sleeping, so it’s an outlet. You additionally generate income off of it? It does generate income, Cohen admits, although it’s not important. Since Cohen began ‘TikToking nightly’ (Blanche’s phrases) six weeks in the past, what number of instances per week do you speak about Trump? Nicely I solely do it six days per week, Cohen says (chuckles from the press), so I’d say about six instances per week.” • Value studying in full, however except I missed one thing — time presses — neither Cohen nor Trump was actually marked up on the primary day.
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Michael Cohen pressed on his crimes and lies as protection assaults key Trump hush cash trial witness” [Associated Press]. That’s fairly a headline from the usually staid AP. “In a single clip performed in courtroom Thursday, Cohen might be heard utilizing an expletive and saying he actually hopes ‘that this man leads to jail.’ ‘It received’t carry again the 12 months that I misplaced or the harm completed to my household. However revenge is a dish finest served chilly,’ Cohen was heard saying. ‘You higher consider that I would like this man to go down.’ Cohen acknowledged he has continued to assault Trump, even throughout the trial.”
* * * * * * Biden (D): “Biden’s workforce had a couple of calls for for a Trump debate. A significant one: No crowd” [Politico]. “An empty TV studio may, Biden aides really feel, deprive their GOP rival of a significant benefit after they face off. ‘Trump feeds off the gang, they provide him life,’ stated one Biden adviser who was granted anonymity with a view to talk about inside technique. ‘We wished to take that away.’ There have been a number of circumstances that the Biden workforce felt had been needed with a view to conform to a debate with the previous president, amongst them that at the least one discussion board happen earlier than the beginning of early voting and that the hosts weren’t from retailers with an ideological bent towards Trump. However in interviews with greater than a half dozen officers and advisers who weren’t approved to debate personal conversations, the difficulty of the gang was constant. Amongst their issues had been that the viewers noise may drawback Biden, who generally has bother listening to amid a din. Additionally they wished to make sure that there was a clear tempo and cadence to the talk and that it not flip right into a shouting match or spectacle.” • Assuming the talk guidelines allow cellphones, perhaps the Trump marketing campaign may arrange a watch get together, then stream it to Trump’s cellphone. He may maintain up the cellphone exhibiting the cheering crowd at applicable moments.
Biden (D): “Biden’s labor report card: Historian offers ‘Union Joe’ a better grade than any president since FDR” [Erik Loomis, The Conversation]. Actually, the NLRB is far improved (not that Biden is working on that). This caught my eye: “When it comes to Biden’s actions, the low level got here in 2022, when he used the Railway Labor Act of 1926 to cease the railroad union from placing for higher sick go away.” Not that I’m bitter. Extra: “Biden officers argued that the financial system couldn’t afford a rail shutdown, however political concerns round inflation earlier than the midterm elections most likely contributed to the administration’s response. On the identical time, the Biden administration continued working behind the scenes to strain rail firms to grant the employees their calls for, and so they largely did. Union leaders credit score Biden for serving to them get this victory for his or her employees. On the identical time, the Biden administration continued working behind the scenes to strain rail firms to grant the employees their calls for, and so they largely did. Union leaders credit score Biden for serving to them get this victory for his or her employees.” • The quote is from IBEW, however certainly there are extra central rail unions? Can readers remark?
BIden (D): “The Working Class-Sized Gap in Democratic Help Widens” [Ruy Teixiera, The Liberal Patriot]. “The Instances ballot supplies information throughout the six key Presidential battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—in addition to information for every of those particular person states. Here’s what I discovered: Throughout the battleground, Biden is dropping to Trump amongst working-class voters by 16 factors. That compares to Biden’s nationwide working-class deficit of simply 4 factors in 2020…. The October-to-Might deterioration amongst working-class voters is definitely a bit worse amongst probably voters…. The October-to-Might deterioration can also be worse amongst nonwhite working-class voters. Biden was forward amongst these voters within the battleground states by 16 factors final October (observe that this compares to the 48 level benefit Biden had nationally in 2020). However his benefit amongst nonwhite working class voters has fallen to single digits—9 factors—within the new information.” • Value studying in full.
Biden (D): “Kamala for governor? She jokes, however the state lacks an enormous” [Politico]. Eighteen paragraphs down: “Vice President Kamala Harris has joked to associates that she could return to California to run for governor if Democrats lose the White Home this fall, taking a web page from Richard Nixon, two individuals acquainted with her remarks stated. ‘That didn’t occur,’ Harris spokesperson Kirsten Allen informed Politico in response. ‘This November, the vice chairman might be making ready to be inaugurated for the second time period of the Biden-Harris administration.” • That’s the one critical point out of Harris. So the headline is making an attempt to make a narrative the place no story — that we find out about — exists. Which is attention-grabbing in itself.
* * * “Probably the most highly effective pro-Israel group in American politics isn’t… speaking about Israel” [Politico]. “Probably the most outstanding pro-Israel group in American politics has promised to pour tens of thousands and thousands of {dollars} into this 12 months’s elections. Nevertheless it’s largely not speaking about Israel. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has entered a number of congressional races thus far, attacking some candidates and boosting their very own. However the matter of Israel has come up solely minimally, in a handful of Republican races. And the group hasn’t talked about Israel in Democratic primaries in any respect.” • That’s clarifying. Now we’re simply speaking worth, proper?
* * *
Pandemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Airborne Transmission: Covid
“Explosive family unfold of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in China in late 2022” [Building and Environment]. N = 12,037. From the Summary: “Instantly after easing the 3-year zero-COVID coverage in mainland China, an explosive unfold of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 occurred in late 2022, regardless of most individuals staying at house.” Exhibiting that non-pharmaceutical interventions are, in truth, efficient. Extra: “Higher air flow in shared corridors and residing rooms was related to a decrease family day by day incidence fee and a decrease fever prevalence.” Extra: “Residing on higher flooring was related to a better day by day incidence fee.” Amoy Gardens redux. Extra: “Sporting an N95 respirator when leaving house may successfully cut back family an infection threat. The noticed similarity within the peak an infection fee and its date of prevalence in numerous provincial areas counsel the spontaneous and simultaneous unfold of the Omicron variant throughout the nation. Crowded households, poor air flow in shared widespread corridors, and residing on higher flooring had been related to a better incidence and extra signs of illness.” • Tremendous, fantastic, however the place’s the RCT? Anyhow…. I nonetheless stay bewildered and appalled that China, with three years to work with, didn’t even start to strategy air flow; as if the world’s best manufacturing energy couldn’t put an HVAC in each room and business house. The one factor I can conclude is that for China’s ruling class, simply as for our personal, that in the end the deaths had been the purpose.
Maskstravaganza
‘We wish to make sure that this doesn’t violate the Individuals with Disabilities Act, so there might be some tweaking alongside the best way.’” • Partial excellent news? In any case, it couldn’t damage to maintain up the strain: Right here once more is the petition and (from yesterday) listed below are some numbers to name. Perhaps that Buck Newton nimrod bought stuffed again in his field? Good to see the Biden Administration weighing in, too. BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!! Not.
Vaccines
“Adjuvanted subunit intranasal vaccine prevents SARS-CoV-2 onward transmission in hamsters” [bioRxiv]. From the Summary: “Most COVID-19 vaccine trials have targeted on recipient safety, not safety of their contacts, a crucial want. As a subunit intranasal COVID-19 vaccine diminished nasopharyngeal virus greater than did an intramuscular (IM) vaccine, we hypothesized that this vaccine may cut back onward transmission to others. We vaccinated hamsters with both the IM-administrated Moderna mRNA vaccine twice or one dose of mRNA IM adopted by adjuvanted subunit intranasal vaccine. 24 hours after SARS-CoV-2 problem, these animals had been housed with naïve recipients in a contactless chamber that enables airborne transmission. . These information strongly help the usage of the intranasal vaccine as a lift to guard not solely the vaccinated individual, but additionally individuals uncovered to the vaccinated individual, a key public well being objective.” • Excellent news (though optimistic in regards to the objectives of public well being).
Testing and Monitoring
A ray of hope on hospital information:
Final week, the requirement for US hospitals to report key COVID information to the federal authorities ended.
However there is a proposed HHS/CMS rule that might change this, and require hospitals to report key COVID, flu, and RSV hospitalization information *exterior* of public well being emergencies. https://t.co/R2kGlgv1ry pic.twitter.com/6aQ7A8cbTa
— Dr. Fortunate Tran (@luckytran) Might 9, 2024
Sequelae: Covid
“What will we find out about covid-19’s results on the mind?” [BMJ]. “Is it the virus coming into the mind? This can be a advanced difficulty and the topic of a lot debate. In vitro research have discovered that the virus disrupts the blood-brain barrier, though this was seen solely with the unique wild-type SARS-CoV-2 and omicron variants. This analysis additionally discovered that the virus could have an effect on the operate of cells within the central nervous system. As a result of lack of scent is a typical symptom, some researchers have steered that the virus could enter the mind via the olfactory system. Stephen Griffin, virologist on the College of Leeds, notes that the UK Biobank examine recorded ‘diminished gray matter thickness—comprised of the principle mobile ‘our bodies’ of neurons, quite than their tendril-like projections—in elements of the mind linked with olfactory sensing, specifically the limbic system and first olfactory cortex,’ which might be proof for this route of entry. Nevertheless, there’s little different proof that the virus enters cells within the mind. Schifitto says, ‘There’s been one report suggesting the virus will get into astrocytes; others have not likely discovered the virus in particular cells.’ However he provides, ‘The virus could cause harm with out infecting cells. If it’s activating different cells within the mind that trigger irritation, you don’t want the virus to be there to trigger issues. The quantity of cytokines within the blood may activate, for instance, microglia, a classical cell sort concerned in power neuroinflammation.’”
Celeb Watch
Swift — whose entourage works exhausting to not infect the star — may achieve this a lot good, for free of charge to herself. A lot for the delicate singer-songwriter:
Taylor Swift concert events, Covid clusters? Since @taylorswift13 ‘s exhibits at @ParisLaDefArena (with poor air flow) many followers have informed that they’ve fallen unwell, generally with extreme signs. “All of the individuals I do know who’ve been there have additionally fallen unwell, whether or not Covid or not”. https://t.co/YhXeHINbUC pic.twitter.com/72GO3VLXDl
— LET’S AIR / NOUS AÉRONS (@nousaerons) Might 17, 2024
I do know she’s not alone, however sheesh!
Elite Maleficence
“CDC Releases Steering for Stopping Unfold of Infections in Colleges to Maintain Kids Wholesome and Studying” (press launch) [CDC]. • Mandy slaughters extra harmless youngsters:
To be honest, I don’t know all of the illnesses to which faculty children are topic; Covid is airborne; the RSV literature is infested with droplet dogma jargon, so I assume institutional inertia prevails quite than science, however RSV can also be airborne as an aerosol; ditto for the flu. So after I remark solely on Covid, I feel it’s honest to say I’m overlaying all three. Covid can also be probably the most lethal, so it could make sense to anybody however CDC to make it the precedence. I’ve helpfully annotated the press launch (hyperlinks out there on request; time presses):
[1] Forgotten nothing, discovered nothing (though to be honest, there’s no suggestion for Plexiglass limitations).
[2] Handwashing and “respiratory etiquette” (coughing into your elbow) do nothing in opposition to Covid.
[3] Heaven forfend you must do something to enhance air flow now, like placing HVAC filters and Corsi-Rosenthal packing containers within the schoolrooms; so far as Mandy is worried, such gadgets may as effectively be science fiction. After all, should you’re a wealthy district, like Newton, MA, you may defend your youngsters straight away, however should you’re not, then positive, wait. Why not?
[3] (oops) Fomite theatre. Positive, cleansing is nice, however can we please not deceive ourselves
[4] Vaccinations don’t, in fact, stop transmission.
[5] “Ailing” as proven by signs, in fact. However Covid spreads asymptomatically, which is why clear air must be the default, and never a reactive measure.
[6] What’s “PPE”? Moonsuits? Beneath, they are saying “masks” (and never respirators). Which is it?
[7] No. No, they don’t. That is all fomite transmission-related. None of this can assist with Covid in any respect.
[8] Masks because the completely final resort. For any sane instructor — and any sane father or mother — and especailly in a college that can have ten extra years of dangerous air flow as a result of that’s when the “reworking” will happen, masks must be the primary resort. I imply, if CDC’s precedence is certainly “protecting youngsters wholesome,” which it clearly shouldn’t be.
“Professional-An infection Medical doctors Didn’t Simply Need Youngsters in College. They Needed Them There Unvaccinated, Untested, and Unmasked. They Needed Them Contaminated” [Science-Based Medicine]. “It’s all sufficient to make one suppose that youngsters studying in school rooms wasn’t the principle precedence for pro-infection medical doctors. Slightly, their chief goal was to contaminate as many youngsters as rapidly as potential to hasten the arrival of herd immunity, and faculties had been only a instrument to perform this goal- a objective they shared with their rich libertarian pal who informed children to dropout of public faculties to allow them to smoke after their shift at Walmart and Stylish-Fil-A.” • Yep.
Lambert right here: Affected person readers, I’m going to must rethink this superbly formatted desk. Appears like Biobot information nonetheless features, CDC variant information features, ER visits are lifeless, New York hospitalization appears to be lifeless since 5/1 [No, it’s alive!], when CDC stopped necessary hospital information assortment, Walgreens features, Cleveland Clinic features, CDC traveler’s information features, New York Instances dying information has stopped. (Observe that the 2 metrics the hospital-centric CDC cared about, hospitalization and deaths, have each gone down). Ideally I might substitute hospitalization and dying information, however I’m unsure how. I may also develop the wastewater part to incorporate (yech) Verily information, H5N1 if I can get it. Solutions and sources welcome.
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new right now; all others are usually not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Slight upward motion, supported by yesterday’s Walgreen’s positivity.
[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….
[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, provided that the mannequin fully missed KP.2.
[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I feel in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to affirm. UPDATE Sure, go away it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal information, if any. I appreciated the ER information, as a result of it appeared actually exhausting to recreation.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flat. The information is now updating once more. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it seems like “endemicity,” however to me it seems like one other tranche of lethality.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Slight uptick.
[8] (Cleveland) Leveling out.
[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Up and down.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) KP.2 enters the chat, as does B.1.1.529 (with backward revision).
[11] Appears just like the Instances isn’t reporting dying information any extra? Perhaps I would like to return to The Economist….
Stats Watch
There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity right now.
Tech: “”I misplaced belief”: Why the OpenAI workforce in control of safeguarding humanity imploded” [Vox]. “For months, OpenAI has been dropping staff who care deeply about ensuring AI is secure. Now, the corporate is positively hemorrhaging them. Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike introduced their departures from OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, on Tuesday. They had been the leaders of the corporate’s superalignment workforce — the workforce tasked with making certain that AI stays aligned with the objectives of its makers, quite than performing unpredictably and harming humanity. They’re not the one ones who’ve left. Since final November — when OpenAI’s board tried to fireside CEO Sam Altman solely to see him rapidly claw his means again to energy — at the least 5 extra of the corporate’s most safety-conscious staff have both stop or been pushed out. What’s happening right here? Should you’ve been following the saga on social media, you may suppose OpenAI secretly made an enormous technological breakthrough. The meme ‘What did Ilya see?’ speculates that Sutskever, the previous chief scientist, left as a result of he noticed one thing horrifying, like an AI system that might destroy humanity. However the actual reply could have much less to do with pessimism about expertise and extra to do with pessimism about people — and one human specifically: Altman. In accordance with sources acquainted with the corporate, safety-minded staff have misplaced religion in him. ‘It’s a technique of belief collapsing little by little, like dominoes falling one after the other,’ an individual with inside information of the corporate informed me, talking on situation of anonymity.” • Why on earth would anyone besides silly cash belief Sam Altman?
At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 64 Greed (earlier shut: 60 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 46 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Might 17 at 1:58:59 PM ET.
The Gallery
Alert reader MB writes: “Sharing as a result of I feel readers will recognize this. Sesshu Toyo, panorama 1495 (!) I hope you may see the number of strokes and washes”:
Serendipitously, the tones go properly with Carla’s picture under.
Information of the Wired
“Mechanical Actions of the Chilly Struggle: How the Soviets Revolutionized Wristwatches” [Collector’s Weekly]. “Then I popped off the again, anticipating the standard inside: a battery, some metallic circuitry and a plastic spacer. As an alternative, the whole lot was superbly completed—brushed metallic gears, springs, and crimson ruby jewels. These are true rubies which can be synthetically made, since rubies are extraordinarily sturdy and immune to the consequences of continued friction. Should you think about a mechanical watch that’s ticking all day, daily, on somebody’s wrist, there’s an infinite quantity of friction that each one of those elements incur. The traditional ticking sound you hear in a mechanical watch represents numerous actions inside, and the overwhelming majority of mechanical watches make use of rubies to allow them to strike and pivot a whole lot of 1000’s of instances per day with out carrying away.” • Enjoyable stuff!
Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are fantastic! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Carla:
Carla writes: “Wade Chapel, Lakeview Cemetery, Cleveland, OH, April 23, 2024.” A stunning day in early spring. I can’t {photograph} the sky to save lots of my life, not to mention a low-key sky like this….
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Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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