2:00PM Water Cooler 5/28/2024 | bare capitalism

Date:


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Readers, in the event you planted something on Memorial Day, I hope that went effectively. –lambert

Hen Track of the Day

Japanese Phoebe, Spruce Run Recreation Space, Hunterdon, New Jersey, United States. “Singing above boat rental.”

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In Case You May Miss…

(1) Google Search’s inside engineering documentation has leaked (!), and — maintain onto your hats, people — they’ve been mendacity quite a bit.

(2) Closing arguments from the protection in Decide Merchan’s court docket.

(3) Bookcases have wonderful UI/UX.

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Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Lower than a half a 12 months to go!

RCP Ballot Averages, Might 24:

Not a superb week for Staff Trump, with a lot of the Swing States (extra right here) Brownian-motioning themselves towards Biden. Not, nevertheless, Michigan, to which Trump paid a go to, nor essential Pennsylvania. In fact, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, subsequently dangerous, and a lot of the outcomes are inside the margin of error. Now, if both candidate begins breaking away in factors, as a substitute of tenths of a degree…. NOTE I modified the notation: Up and down arrows for will increase or decreases over final week, circles for no change. Pink = Trump. Blue could be Biden if he have been main anyplace, however he isn’t.

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Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Trump legal professional hammers Michael Cohen in hush cash closing arguments: Dwell updates” [The Hill]. “Todd Blanche concluded his closing argument by giving jurors 10 causes the legal professional mentioned ought to give them cheap doubt of Trump’s guilt. Amongst different arguments, Blanche mentioned there was no proof Trump had an intent to defraud and that Cohen was the ’embodiment’ of cheap doubt. The jury was then dismissed for his or her lunch break, although the parties are debating a authorized subject earlier than they depart.” • So the headline will not be correct (and would have implied that Blanche was table-pounding and grand-standing, which in flip would imply that Bragg’s structure and concept of the case are stable, which might be dangerous information for Trump.

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan) “Closing arguments underway at Trump hush cash trial” [Politico]. 5 of the ten causes (and sheesh, in case your humble blogger have been live-bloggging this, you’d have all ten, WTF):

  • Prosecutors didn’t hyperlink Cohen’s creation of invoices (for his hush cash reimbursements) to Trump himself.
  • The Nationwide Enquirer was ready to run some unflattering tales about Trump regardless of a purported conspiracy to guard his candidacy.
  • Belief points with Cohen imply jurors can’t belief the recordings he offered.
  • There’s no proof Trump sought to illegally affect the 2016 election.
  • Michael Cohen is “the human embodiment of cheap doubt.”

Anna Bower of Brooking’s creature Lawfare does give the ten causes, in a thread that begins right here, Right here’s the primary half:

I detest Lawfare, each capitalized and lower-case, however I don’t suppose they make sh*t up, so I really feel I can low cost their protection appropriately.

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan) “CNN authorized knowledgeable says concept of Trump being acquitted in hush cash case is ‘out of attain’” [CNN]. “‘This was a winnable case. It nonetheless will not be a slam dunk, for my part, having been there every single day for the prosecution,’ Eisen mentioned in a CNN interview with Jim Acosta on Monday. ‘I believe the percentages of conviction are someplace upwards of 80 %.’ ‘Partly due to this scattershot method, the protection will not be actually gunning for an acquittal. That’s out of attain right here,’ he continued. ‘What they’re hoping for is one indignant juror.’ ‘Whether or not there’s one juror who both feels sympathy for Trump or simply for no matter motive doesn’t observe the proof and the legislation. The holdout,’ the knowledgeable added. ‘That’s what they’re attempting for. Only one.” • In fact, Eisen would say this. Once more, IANAL, but when the “object offense” has truly been within the indictment, maybe the protection would have been in a position to put together one thing apart from a “scattershot method.”

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Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Merchan and Bragg Vogue a Obscure Fraud Instruction to Convict Trump” [Andrew McCarthy, National Review]. “It offers with the central subject of fraud, and it’s fleshed out in a “red-line” draft train Merchan directed, during which the events sought to slender disputes by offering the court docket with a draft that indicated what proposed directions they agreed and disagreed on. There, the next is obtainable to outline the central idea of intent to defraud. Except I’m lacking one thing, I don’t see any indication of an objection by the protection to this language: “In an effort to show an intent to defraud, the Folks needn’t show that the defendant acted with the intent to defraud any specific particular person or entity. A normal intent to defraud any particular person or entity — together with the federal government or the voting public — suffices.”… However implicit in that’s that fraud, as initially understood, is a misleading scheme to deprive individuals of cash or tangible property — concrete property…. As I detailed a 12 months in the past when the Supreme Court docket threw out two federal political-corruption convictions of cronies of former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, a significant issue arises when politicians — typically, progressive politicians — try to stretch the idea of fraud as a way to impose their imaginative and prescient of excellent governance. They do that by transmogrifying the concrete-property goal of fraudsters right into a obscure intangible curiosity in honesty. This may get so obscure that, in essence, prosecutors start indicting (pardon the tautology) misleading schemes to be misleading — i.e., instances during which nobody was truly bilked out of something concrete, and even focused to be so bilked, however the fraud is alleged to be some artifice that produced a end result the prosecutor doesn’t like… Thus does the footnote supporting the proposed fraud instruction elaborate that ‘within the electoral context,’ New York’s highest court docket has ‘acknowledged that the idea of fraud can embody any deliberate deception (to be dedicated upon the citizens),’ or any ‘corrupt act to stop a free and open election.’ That is method too broad. There nonetheless needs to be fraud — that means the design to steal one thing during which individuals have a concrete curiosity.” • Deeply ironic that the political get together of RussiaGate, the political get together of Hunter Biden’s laptop computer, would get all pious about “corrupt act to stop a free and open election” — and switch them into felonies, no much less. As I hold saying: How is that this totally different from regular campaigning?

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “The Closing: Trump’s Remaining Argument Should Be Readability to Chaos in Merchan’s Courtroom” [Jonathan Turley]. “Even a cursory overview of the proof reveals this case doesn’t have a leg to face on. “The useless misdemeanor that’s the basis for this complete prosecution requires the falsification of enterprise data. It’s not clear that there was such falsification or that Trump has any data or position in any falsification. Witnesses testified that Trump would signal checks ready by others and that the precise checks on this case have been signed whereas Trump was serving as president. A few of these checks, labeled ‘authorized bills,” have been allegedly for legal professional Michael Cohen to repay Stormy Daniels. Most significantly, Jeffrey McConney, the Trump Group’s retired controller and senior vice-president, testified that it was not Trump who designated these funds as ‘authorized bills.’ Somewhat, the company used an ‘antiquated’ drop-down menu the place any funds to attorneys have been designated ‘authorized bills.’ … The federal government additionally cites the designation of funds to Cohen as a part of his ‘retainer,’ which included reimbursement for the fee of the Daniels non-disclosure settlement. Nevertheless, that designation was the results of discussions between Cohen and former Trump Group CFO Allen Weisselberg, who’s sitting in a jail cell in New York Metropolis. The federal government may have known as Weisselberg, however didn’t.” And: “The federal government should additionally present that any falsification was completed to additional or conceal one other crime. That is the place the protection must carry better readability to its personal narrative. Trump’s crew must drive house {that a} non-disclosure settlement is frequent in political, enterprise and leisure circles. The fee of cash to quash a narrative earlier than an election is neither illegal nor uncommon. Certainly, Keith Davidson, Stormy Daniels’ legal professional, described the NDA as routine and mentioned that it was not hush cash however a easy contractual transaction: ‘It wasn’t a payoff. It wasn’t hush cash. It was consideration.’… Merchan has allowed the jury to repeatedly hear of “election violations,” whereas blocking a authorized knowledgeable to clarify that there isn’t a federal election legislation violation. The fee of hush cash will not be a marketing campaign contribution and, once more, the federal authorities not solely declined to carry any prison cost, however discovered no foundation for even a civil superb.” That is truthful, however the state legislation (§ 17-152, see subsequent merchandise) that is also the thing offense requires solely “conspir[ing] to advertise or forestall the election of any particular person by illegal means” which doesn’t equate to a marketing campaign contribution. Extra: “All the foundation for the alleged prison intent is Michael Cohen, a disbarred lawyer and serial perjurer…. Cohen’s lack of credibility and his admitted monetary curiosity in attacking Trump solely spotlight once more the absence of Weisselberg, whom Cohen references repeatedly as the important thing particular person making selections on how these funds have been made and described. If what Cohen mentioned was true, corroboration was sitting a automobile journey away in Rikers Island. Site visitors could also be dangerous however it’s not that dangerous. The one motive to not name Weisselberg was that he would contradict Cohen.”

Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “What Should Prosecutors Show in Trump’s NY Trial?’ [Lawfare]. From Might 7, and value a learn once more. Key level: “Whereas the indictment alleges no conspiracy, as Bove appropriately talked about, Bragg charged Trump below New York Penal Regulation § 175.10, falsifying enterprise data within the first diploma, a felony “stepped up” from the misdemeanor cost below § 175.05, by alleging that Trump cooked the books with the “intent to commit one other crime and assist and conceal the fee thereof.” Justice Merchan has permitted the prosecution to pursue three theories associated to that underlying crime, often known as the thing offense, however the prosecution appears to be zeroing in up to now on one, specifically: New York Election Regulation § 17-152, a misdemeanor offense that prohibits ‘conspir[ing] to advertise or forestall the election of any particular person to a public workplace by illegal means.’ As Steinglass mentioned in court docket on April 23, ‘whereas it’s true that there isn’t a conspiracy within the second diploma cost on the indictment, it’s not true {that a} conspiracy has not all the time been alleged to be a part of this case.’” • So Trump retains getting accused of issues — e.g., rebellion on January 6, however right here conspiracy — that no person ever fees him with. If he did it, why not cost him? IANAL, however this goes over my head.

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Trump (Bragg/Merchan) “One other Violation of Trump’s Constitutional Rights within the Bragg Case” [National Review]. Value studying on the “conspiracy.” However this: “[NMI/National Enquirer’s David] Pecker testified to 2 supposed authorized admissions of guilt. One was a non-prosecution settlement between Pecker and the Justice Division, which was premised upon the speculation that AMI paying McDougal was a marketing campaign expense of the Trump marketing campaign and will have been reported as such. Observe that this was not even a proper act of contrition, not to mention a judicial precedent on the extremely debatable authorized concept that the fee was coated by the federal campaign-finance legal guidelines. The opposite factor Pecker testified about was a superb paid by AMI to the Federal Election Fee. However right here’s the important thing reality: It wasn’t Pecker who determined to pay the superb. He had already left the corporate. It was the AMI board that made that call. It did so for enterprise causes anybody may perceive: The corporate was attempting to promote the Enquirer, and companies routinely pay all method of settlements to get authorized controversies out of the way in which (even bogus ones) once they’re attempting to do a merger or sale of a enterprise. I as soon as labored on a case the place an organization paid six instances the statutory most superb — six instances what it may presumably have been pressured to pay if convicted at trial — simply so it may get a merger completed. Why does it matter that Pecker wasn’t concerned in that call? As a result of the choice to pay the superb was proof used in opposition to Trump at his prison trial. That, in sensible impact, made AMI a witness in opposition to Trump. The prosecution was successfully utilizing Pecker to confess, on behalf of AMI, that AMI broke the legislation. However Pecker can’t be cross-examined about one thing he didn’t do. Neither AMI as an entity, nor its board, was known as as a witness, so Trump was denied the precise to cross-examine AMI about why it paid the $180,000 superb. That’s a violation of Trump’s rights below the Sixth Modification’s confrontation clause. Since Crawford v. Washington (2004), the Supreme Court docket has cracked down on the usage of out-of-court statements by individuals who aren’t known as as witnesses, as a result of the Structure ensures the precise of the accused in each prison case “to be confronted with the witnesses in opposition to him.’” • Attention-grabbing argument. Can authorized professionals within the readership remark?

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Trump (R) (Cannon/Smith) “Cannon chastises Smith crew, denies ‘gag order’ request in Trump labeled docs case” [The Hill]. “Decide Aileen Cannon chastised particular counsel Jack Smith’s crew Tuesday after she mentioned they didn’t meaningfully attain out to former President Trump’s attorneys on a movement to restrict his speech within the labeled paperwork case after Trump claimed legislation enforcement had the facility to assassinate him. She likewise denied a movement from Trump’s authorized crew in search of to censure prosecutors over the matter. Smith’s crew filed asking Cannon to make clear that false claims from Trump violated his present situations of launch after he mentioned President Biden and the Justice Division have been approved to ‘take me out’ through the seek for paperwork at Mar-a-Lago. Prosecutors — who like Trump’s crew are required to check with the opposite get together earlier than submitting motions within the case — didn’t accomplish that till 5:30 p.m. forward of Memorial Day weekend. ‘The Court docket finds the Particular Counsel’s professional forma ‘conferral’ to be wholly missing in substance {and professional} courtesy,’ Cannon wrote. ‘It ought to go with out saying that significant conferral will not be a perfunctory train. Ample time must be afforded to allow cheap analysis of the requested reduction by opposing counsel and to permit for enough follow-up dialogue.” • Smith is being infantile. Come on.

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Trump (R): “Eyeing Trump, however on the Fence: How Tuned-Out Voters May Resolve 2024” [New York Times]. “Politically disengaged People are rising as some of the unpredictable, complicated and doubtlessly influential teams of voters within the 2024 race. They’re fueling Mr. Trump’s present polling leads however in lots of instances hail from historically Democratic communities, giving Mr. Biden an opportunity to win a few of them again.” Reaching them is an issue: “In a presidential election during which greater than 80 % of voters, in line with a Pew Analysis Middle survey, say they need one or each main candidates weren’t operating, some are opting out of straight-ahead political information solely… ‘When your crew’s dropping, you don’t learn the sports activities web page after the sport,’ mentioned Ken Goldstein, a professor of politics on the College of San Francisco. ‘You might have an enormous swath of the nation that simply thinks they’re dropping relating to politics, and so the way in which to cope with that’s to only not concentrate.’” • And are they incorrect? See Ferguson and Storm right here. Spoiler: They’re not incorrect.

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Biden (D): “Dems in full-blown ‘freakout’ over Biden” [Politico]. “A pervasive sense of concern has settled in on the highest ranges of the Democratic Occasion over President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects, even amongst officeholders and strategists who had beforehand expressed confidence in regards to the coming battle with Donald Trump. All 12 months, Democrats had been on a joyless and exhausting grind by means of the 2024 election. However now, almost 5 months from the election, nervousness has morphed into palpable trepidation, in line with greater than a dozen get together leaders and operatives. And the hole between what Democrats will say on TV or in print, and what they’ll textual content their associates, has solely grown as worries have surged about Biden’s prospects. ‘You don’t need to be that man who’s on the file saying we’re doomed, or the marketing campaign’s dangerous or Biden’s making errors. No one needs to be that man,’ mentioned a Democratic operative in shut contact with the White Home and granted anonymity to talk freely. However Biden’s stubbornly poor polling and the stakes of the election ‘are creating the freakout,’ he mentioned. • Thought: Let’s assist out Large Z by constructing a pier in Ukraine. Possibly if we construct a pier on dry land, will probably be simpler.

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Our Famously Free Press

“Washington Publish sat on Alito upside-down flag interview for years” [Axios]. “It seems that The Publish’s former Supreme Court docket reporter, Bob Barnes, did a front-yard interview with Justice Samuel Alito on Jan. 20, 2021 — President Biden’s inauguration day — in regards to the upside-down American flag that had flown exterior the justice’s house in Fairfax County, Va. The Publish determined it wasn’t a narrative, till The New York Instances broke the information on Might 16 — 3 years, 4 months later. The flag — which Alito attributed to his spouse, Martha-Ann Alito — raised ethics questions that have been heightened after The Instances reported final week on a second provocative flag flown at an Alito property.” • From the complete story, it seems to be just like the “sign of misery” flag is all the way down to Martha-Ann Alito, who sounds a bit shrill; however the second flag, the “Enchantment to Heaven” flag, seems to be to me like an open endorsement of a political faction,

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

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An infection

“Triple risk: The winter viruses you may get on the similar time” [The New Daily]. The supply is from Australia, the place it’s winter. “Within the first three months of 2024, there have been thrice as many confirmed Covid-19 instances as influenza instances. Which means there’s much more of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (which causes Covid-19) circulating locally than influenza. Worse, the dying fee related to Covid-19 was about 4 instances as excessive as for influenza. This may occasionally even out just a little over winter, however Covid-19 will probably stay the most important risk of you changing into critically in poor health. However, RSV is a particularly frequent respiratory illness amongst young children. It’s extremely infectious, and but not high of thoughts. It’s not as deadly as flu or Covid, however it may well get very nasty for the very younger, previous and people in between with lung points.” • Australia, then, is within the grip of a syndemic. In the meantime, it’s past silly for america to consider that Covid is over when it’s rising in different international locations which have air connections to america.

Sequelae: Covid

“Lengthy COVID and heart problems: a potential cohort examine” [BMJ]. N = 2545. From the Dialogue: “On this potential observational examine of hospitalised COVID-19 survivors within the UK fewer than one in three sufferers with cardiovascular comorbidities or at excessive threat of growing [cardiovascular disease (CVD)] had full affected person perceived bodily, psychological and cognitive restoration as much as 1 12 months

following SARS-CoV-2 an infection. The profound practical deterioration and decrease high quality of life which have been beforehand reported at 5 months persist at 1 12 months, notably for these with established CVD or with cardiovascular threat elements.” You possibly can’t spell “Covid” with out “C, V, D”!

Origins Debate

Daszak’s EcoHealth, checked out merely as an establishment (an NGO that raised cash by snagging grants) was rotten to the core. Now it seems to be just like the NIH, one among its grantors, was simply as rotten. That is astonishing:

Crafting emails to keep away from FOIA? Actually? What attainable good motive for that may there be? And the way far again does the rot go? Way back to Fauci’s conduct within the AIDS disaster?

Movie star Watch

Modeling good habits:

‘Tis a thriller (1):

‘Tis a thriller (2):

‘Tis a thriller: “Novak Djokovic suffers sixth defeat this 12 months and admits he might wrestle at French Open” [The Telegraph]. The deck: “World No.1 at a loss to clarify poor type with Roland Garros defence wanting even more durable after Geneva Open defeat.”

Elite Maleficence

“Covid will nonetheless be right here this summer time. Will anybody care? [WaPo]. No, for the reason that propaganda marketing campaign supporting a inhabitants cull has been Goebbelsian in its depth and immersiveness. “That is shaping as much as be the primary covid wave with barely any federal strain to restrict transmission and little information to even declare a surge. Persons are now not suggested to isolate for 5 days after testing constructive. Free assessments are arduous to return by. Quickly, uninsured individuals will now not be capable of get coronavirus vaccines free…. So we’re left with a virus that continues to hum within the background as an ever-present pathogen and sporadic killer. The general public well being institution now not treats covid as a high precedence. Solely a smattering of passengers nonetheless put on masks on trains and planes. Weddings, holidays and conferences stick with it as regular. Many who do get sick received’t ever comprehend it’s covid. Or care…. The CDC and well being authorities proceed to advertise the coronavirus vaccine, , as one of the best type of safety in opposition to the illness…. In April, hospitals stopped reporting confirmed covid-19 instances – ending probably the most generally cited metric for measuring the virus’s toll. The CDC nonetheless tracks the degrees of coronavirus detected in wastewater and discloses the proportion of emergency room visits with a identified covid-19 case, which has been declining since February. However Hotez mentioned the accessible metrics are now not sufficient to correctly grasp the covid scenario.” That is maybe one of the best quote: “Many summer time campers, as an illustration, will now not be pressured to isolate for covid whereas asymptomatic for the reason that CDC revised its quarantine protocols to permit individuals to reemerge after their fevers break, mentioned Tom Rosenberg, president and chief government of the American Camp Affiliation. ‘ [cough cough] ,’ Rosenberg mentioned. ‘We need to hold them in camp as a lot as we will so long as they’re effectively and able to take part.’” • Little doubt! Nothing would please me greater than to study/settle for the Covid pandemic was over. Nothing official — not the info, and definitely not habits — convinces me that it’s. Change my thoughts!

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Lambert right here: Affected person readers, I’m going to should rethink this superbly formatted desk. Biobot information is gone, CDC variant information capabilities, ER visits are useless, CDC stopped necessary hospital information assortment, New York Instances dying information has stopped. (Observe that the 2 metrics the hospital-centric CDC cared about, hospitalization and deaths, have each gone darkish). Ideally I’d substitute hospitalization and dying information, however I’m undecided how. I may also develop the wastewater part to incorporate (yech) Verily information, H5N1 if I can get it. Options and sources welcome. UPDATE I changed the Instances dying information with CDC information. Amusingly, the URL doesn’t embrace parameters to assemble the tables; one should reconstruct then manually every time. Caltrops abound.

TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) for charts new as we speak; all others should not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Useless.

[2] (Biobot) Useless.

[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, provided that the mannequin utterly missed KP.2.

[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, for the reason that hyperlink is damaged, I believe in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to affirm. UPDATE Sure, depart it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal information, if any. I favored the ER information, as a result of it appeared actually arduous to sport.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Barely, however distinctly up. The NY city space has type; in 2020, as the house of two worldwide airports (JFK and EWR) it was an essential entry level for the virus into the nation (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, because the wealthy sought to flee, and across the nation by means of air journey). So my pure inclination is to see how wastewater at JFK and EWR is doing. CDC, earlier than it determined to butcher wastewater visualization, offered information all the way down to the sewage remedy plant stage, so I may test the Brooklyn plant for JFK (and likewise the Brooklyn plant for LGA). Nicely, that’s now not attainable, however the Verily [vomits quietly] wastewater web site — Biobot being kaput — supplies information on EWR. Right here it’s:

So, New York Metropolis Hospitalization up, Covid from air journey up. Make of that what you’ll. Covid can also be up in Singapore and France, you’ll recall.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) Slight uptick.

[8] (Cleveland) Leveling out.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up and down.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) KP.2 enters the chat, as does B.1.1.529 (with backward revision).

[11] CDC’s information and visualization, nonetheless being up to date.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Federal Reserve Financial institution of Dallas’ normal enterprise exercise index for manufacturing in Texas decreased to -19.4 in Might 2024, hitting a brand new 4-month low.”

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Retail: “Amazon Returns Have Gone to Hell” [The Atlantic]. “In the event you can’t see and contact items that you just’re about to purchase, then you definately don’t ever actually know what you’re going to get, and also you is likely to be disenchanted. Free transport and returns have helped shoppers hedge that threat. However free for you doesn’t imply free for the retailers, which lose some huge cash on restocking and refurbishment. As Amanda Mull wrote for The Atlantic final 12 months, the usual method of promoting issues on-line—with the blanket promise You possibly can all the time ship it again!—has develop into unsustainable. ‘For the primary time, corporations are making return reductions a precedence,’ Jacob Feldman, an affiliate professor of provide chain, operations, and expertise at Washington College in St. Louis, informed me… ‘The secret now’s mitigation: How will we mitigate this loopy variety of returns?’ Rogers mentioned. ‘One of many issues you would do is put just a little extra friction in it. They’ll by no means say returns are going to value cash or not be allowed. But when it’s just a little extra inconvenient, that’s not essentially a nasty factor.’ In different phrases, if a return course of put clients off simply sufficient to dissuade some returns, however with out upsetting the dear concept of free returns, that might be a web profit for retailers.” Caltrops wherever you look. However the story begins: “After ordering two packs of 11-inch, rope-woven storage cubes from Amazon.com not too long ago, I discovered that the ensuing cubes have been, actually, 11-by-10.5-by-10.5 inches. Alas, they weren’t what I anticipated. I elected to return each units.” • So I’ve to confess — and I by no means thought this could occur — I’ve a wee little bit of sympathy for Amazon, right here. These are “rope-woven storage cubes,” not airplane fuselage components.

Tech: “An Nameless Supply Shared 1000’s of Leaked Google Search API Paperwork with Me; Everybody in web optimization Ought to See Them” [SparkToro]. “On Sunday, Might fifth, I obtained an electronic mail from an individual claiming to have entry to an enormous leak of API documentation from inside Google’s Search division. The e-mail additional claimed that these leaked paperwork have been confirmed as genuine by ex-Google staff, and that these ex-employees and others had shared further, personal details about Google’s search operations. Naturally, I used to be skeptical. …. So, this previous Friday, Might twenty fourth (following a number of emails), I had a video name with the nameless supply. After the decision I used to be in a position to affirm particulars of their work historical past, mutual individuals we each know from the advertising and marketing world, and several other of their claims about being at specific occasions with business insiders (together with Googlers)…. Throughout our name, this contact confirmed me the leak itself: greater than 2,500 pages of API documentation containing 14,014 attributes (API options) that seem to return from I reached out to one of many world’s foremost technical SEOs: Mike King, founding father of iPullRank. Throughout a 40-minute cellphone name on Friday afternoon, Mike reviewed the leak and confirmed my suspicions: this seems to be a professional set of paperwork from inside Google’s Search division, and accommodates a unprecedented quantity of previously-unconfirmed details about Google’s internal workings. Primarily based on the doc’s commit historical past, this code was uploaded to GitHub on Mar 27, 2024th and never eliminated till Might 7, 2024th… consider this as directions for members of Google’s search engine crew. It’s like a listing of books in a library, a card catalogue of kinds, telling these staff who must know what’s accessible and the way they will get it. However, whereas libraries are public, Google search is without doubt one of the most secretive, closely-guarded black containers on the earth. Within the final quarter century, no leak of this magnitude or element has ever been reported from Google’s search division.” • Right here is King’s technical overview–

Tech: “Secrets and techniques from the Algorithm: Google Search’s Inside Engineering Documentation Has Leaked” [Mike King, iPullRank]. “What I’ll do right here is contextualize a number of the most fascinating rating methods and options (no less than, these I used to be capable of finding within the first few hours of reviewing this large leak) primarily based on my intensive analysis and issues that Google has informed/lied to us about over time. ‘Lied’ is harsh, however it’s the one correct phrase to make use of right here. Whereas I don’t essentially fault Google’s public representatives for shielding their proprietary data, I do take subject with their efforts to actively discredit individuals within the advertising and marketing, tech, and journalism worlds who’ve offered reproducible discoveries.” I’m pressed temporally, so I don’t have time to enter the weeds on this, however right here is one snippet: “It’s been a long-running conspiracy concept that Google’s standing as a registrar feeds the algorithm. We will improve to a conspiracy reality. They retailer the most recent registration data on a composite doc stage.” • That appears like simply the kind of factor that monopoly professionals like Stoller could be concerned about. Does anybody within the readership need to do a deep dive?

* * *

Right now’s Worry & Greed Index: 54 Impartial (earlier shut: 53 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 60 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Might 28 at 12:33:39 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes up one on Floods. “It has been very moist within the US” [Rapture Ready]. Document Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 189. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) • Hen flu not a priority, apparently. And I hate even to go right here, however the “Tribulation Temple” class is a mere 3. If Tribulation Temple = Third Temple = no matter temple it’s that the Pink Heifer loons need to construct, then the Rapture Index made the precise name, amazingly sufficient. It mentioned: “Don’t fear in regards to the Pink Heifers.”

Ebook Nook

“The Bookcase as World’s Most Underrated UI” [Miller’s Book Review]. All true:

Digital guarantees instantaneous retrieval. But it surely by no means fairly delivers. Trying to find a ebook in a digital surroundings means scrolling by means of two-dimensional, typically black-and-white thumbnail ebook covers in hopes of recognizing the precise title, or worse, scanning line after line of identical-looking, text-only search outcomes.

Ebook app UIs have improved over time, however they’re nonetheless fairly poor in comparison with the frequent bookcase. My bookcases at house, as an illustration, enable me to show a pair thousand titles directly. They’re organized to my style, and I can discover nearly something in seconds.

Spatial data, colour, and design all issue into the search outcomes. After I stroll in my examine, I do know historical past and interval literature is on the left, chronologically organized, roughly. Enterprise books are straight forward, organized by topic. Psychology and artwork are forward to the left, philosophy forward to the precise.

When in search of a topic or theme, I can rapidly spot a specific ebook I believe will assist. By grabbing a couple of of its neighbors I can discover one other angle or two. And it’s all visually prompted and tactilely supported, as a substitute of manually keyed and electronically served. I can view the textual content and design information of a dozen ebook spines directly, run my finger alongside their edges and pull this one or that.

Searching gives further advantages. I usually need one ebook specifically however notice a second into scanning the cabinets that one other ebook will serve me higher. The bookcase gives serendipity in a method digital UIs haven’t but replicated or surpassed. That’s additionally true for dimension. My bookcases run flooring to ceiling, wall to wall, on two sides of my examine. No cellphone or desktop can match that show.

Additionally, books and bookcases don’t go down when the grid goes down,

Class Warfare

“OpenAI and Political Bias in Silicon Valley” [RealClearPolitics]. AI-generated paintings representing each events, immediately recognizable for the fascistic kitsch that it’s. However this sentence caught my eye: “[A]sked to advertise careers that don’t require increased training, such because the trades, ChatGPT steadfastly options a picture of a graduate at its middle.” • ChatGPT is PMC to the core, then. Therefore the theft, the mendacity….

“The Loneliness of the American Employee” [Wall Street Journal]. • It seems to be like one thing occurred in late 2019/early 2020. I ponder what? Helpful chart:

Are we taking a look at perception scarring?

Information of the Wired

“Retiring overseas can imply extra forms than bruschetta. But it surely’s rising in reputation” [CNN]. “‘Our aim, which may be very doable primarily based on analysis, is to dwell on lower than $3,500 monthly in Portugal whereas nonetheless with the ability to afford journey in Europe,’ mentioned [Laura Barnett}. Their financial adviser told them that to comfortably retire in the US, they’d need to have about double that amount — $7,000 per month.” • As I keep saying, if you (and your family, if any) don’t have a passport, you’re depriving yourself of an option. Of course, if the lunatics around Biden start a nuclear war, you might need to wear a Canadian lapel pin,

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From CK:

CK writes: “This camelia was planted in 2019 at barely 6” tall. It’s taken its time however is simply magnificent this 12 months.”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In the event you hate PayPal, you may electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on methods to ship a test. Thanks!

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