2023Q4 GDP Advances in All 50 States; Actual Private Revenue Declines in 5

From BEA:

Supply: BEA.

Nominal private earnings rose in all states.

Supply: BEA.

Nevertheless, what we care about is actual private earnings. I deflate utilizing (nationwide) Chained CPI inflation (2.71% q/q AR), and calculate This fall q/q AR development.

Determine 1: Actual private earnings development in 2023Q4, annualized. Supply: BEA, BLS, and creator’s calculations.

Seven states exhibit destructive development in actual private earnings: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas and Hawaii.

Coincident indices via January paint a distinct image from that derived from GDP or actual private earnings.

Supply: Philadelphia Fed. 

Right here’s a time collection of the diffusion index for the three month development charge of the Coincident Index.

Determine 1: Diffusion index for 3 month development charge of coincident indices. Supply: Philadelphia Fed, March 2024.