From the Badger Institute:
Will issues enhance? No: 47% anticipate the nationwide financial system to “stay flat” over the following six months, and 20% — one in 5 —anticipate it to “decline,” as in recession.
“Optimism is falling,” stated WMC President Kurt Bauer, who quoted one captain of trade as saying, “We will not be in a recession, however we’re actually in one thing.”
Right here’re some knowledge, suggesting we’re not in a recession as of December:
Determine 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (darkish blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), actual wages and salaries, deflated by nationwide chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (crimson), coincident index (inexperienced), all in logs 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and writer’s calculations.
What about by means of January? Right here’re the weekly indices from Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims, for knowledge releases by means of 1/27 (for the states, by means of 2/10 for the US):
Determine 2: Buameister/Levia-Leon/Sims WECI for US (black), WI (blue) ,TX (crimson), relative to development y/y, in %. Supply: Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims.
Wisconsin development is above development, above Texas and US development. So if the recession is coming to Wisconsin, it’s (possible) not right here but.
Earlier look of Badger Institute evaluation in Econbrowser, right here.
