2:00PM Water Cooler 2/20/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, I acquired wrapped across the axle on Trump’s fraud case in New York, so the remainder of Water Cooler is a bit skinny. Extra shortly. –lambert

Chicken Music of the Day

Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Walla Walla; Lewis Peak Rd., Washington, United States. “Music. Chatter name.”

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order (Eighth Modification)

I hate so as to add one other matter to the Structure Order part, however right here we’re…

The Eighth Modification:

Extreme bail shall not be required, nor extreme fines imposed, nor merciless and weird punishments inflicted.

Commentary:

In 1998, nevertheless, the Courtroom injected vitality into the strictures of the clause. “The touchstone of the constitutional inquiry beneath the Extreme Fines Clause is the precept of proportionality: The quantity of the forfeiture should bear some relationship to the gravity of the offense that it’s designed to punish.” In United States v. Bajakajian, the federal government sought to require {that a} legal defendant charged with violating federal reporting necessities concerning the transportation of greater than $10,000 in foreign money overseas forfeit the foreign money concerned, which totaled $357,144. The Courtroom held that the forfeiture on this explicit case violated the Extreme Fines Trigger as a result of the quantity forfeited was ‘grossly disproportionate to the gravity of defendant’s offense.’ In figuring out proportionality, the Courtroom didn’t restrict itself to a comparability of the high quality quantity to the confirmed offense, nevertheless it additionally thought of the actual info of the case, the character of the defendant, and the hurt brought on by the offense.

NOTE See the fabric under. Engoron’s penalty appears so clearly extreme it might be grounds for enchantment, however IANAL and no enchantment has truly been filed. If the truth is no Constitutional points are concerned, I’ll transfer this story to the Trump part beneath marketing campaign 2024, with the remainder of the lawfare stuff.

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“New York vs. Donald Trump, et al.” [New York Times] (PDF). • The Instances annotates the complete textual content. I can’t discover a correct quotation for the case, in order that title is my greatest try.

“Right here’s a glance inside Donald Trump’s $355 million civil fraud verdict” [Associated Press]. “Engoron dominated that Trump engaged in a yearslong conspiracy with high executives at his firm, the Trump Group, to deceive banks and insurers concerning the measurement of his wealth and the true worth of such properties as Trump Tower in Manhattan and his Mar-a-Lago membership in Florida…. Engoron determined the case as a result of state legislation doesn’t enable for juries in this kind of lawsuit, which sought what’s often known as “equitable reduction” and has totally different guidelines than different circumstances with big-money penalties. Additionally, he famous, neither aspect requested for a jury.” Extra: “Engoron discovered that Trump’s phony wealth claims had been essential to his success, affording him decrease mortgage rates of interest [see Engoron’s opinion, starting at page 46, the “Expert Witnesses” section]. and permitting him to construct initiatives he wouldn’t have in any other case been in a position to end. The choose decided that these financial savings and windfall income had been ‘ill-gotten beneficial properties’ and ordered him and his co-defendants to cough them as much as the state, with curiosity.” And: “Trump and his legal professionals have stated that exterior accountants that helped put together his monetary statements ought to’ve flagged any discrepancies and that the paperwork got here with disclaimers that shielded him from legal responsibility. They are saying Trump by no means advised anybody to inflate the worth of property and that, if there have been discrepancies, nobody was harmed. ‘There have been no victims as a result of the banks made some huge cash,’ Trump stated Friday, echoing his trial testimony in November. Trump testified that no matter what his monetary statements stated, banks did their very own due diligence and would’ve certified him for the loans anyway. He stated there’s no proof that the phrases or pricing would have been any totally different.” • Good to see that New York Actual Property has been purged of its one dangerous actor! At the least, that’s Governor Hochul’s concept–

“Hochul tells NY companies to not worry about Trump verdict: ‘Nothing to fret about’” [The Hill]. Hochul: “I feel that that is actually a rare, uncommon circumstance that the law-abiding and rule-following New Yorkers who’re enterprise individuals don’t have anything to fret about, as a result of they’re very totally different than Donald Trump and his conduct.” • So that is kinda like a invoice of attainder? Aimed toward one particular person?

“Obscene award towards Trump is testing the New York authorized system’s integrity” [Jonathan Turley, The Hill]. “The one hope for New York companies often is the U.S. Supreme Courtroom. Regardless of the deference afforded to the states and their courts, the courtroom has often intervened to dam extreme injury awards. For instance, in 1996, the justices restricted state-awards of punitive damages beneath the Due Course of Clause of the Fourteenth Modification. In that case, BMW was discovered to have repainted luxurious vehicles broken in transit with out telling consumers. An Alabama jury awarded $4,000 in compensatory damages for the lack of worth in having a manufacturing unit paint job, however then added $4 million in punitive damages. Even when the Alabama Supreme Courtroom diminished that to $2 million, the U.S. Supreme Courtroom nonetheless discovered it extreme. Even liberals on the Courtroom similar to John Paul Stevens and Stephen Breyer agreed that such ‘grossly extreme’ awards elevate a ‘primary unfairness of depriving residents of life, liberty, or property, by the applying of arbitrary coercion.’ The courtroom could discover virtually half a billion {dollars} in damages with no single misplaced greenback from a sufferer to be a tad extreme.”

“Explainer: How will Trump pay his $355 million civil fraud judgment?” [Reuters]. “The previous president’s funds are opaque, however Forbes estimates his web value at $2.6 billion, most of it tied up in actual property. Trump testified in an April deposition that he had roughly $400 million in money. Although he might promote elements of his portfolio to fulfill the judgment, it’s unclear how a lot his property holdings are value, given the headwinds within the business actual property sector…. [Engoron’s] ban on making use of for loans from banks registered or chartered in New York might severely limit Trump’s skill to boost money…. Trump’s portfolio might see a significant windfall if he had been to promote his stake in his social media platform Fact Social, the worth of which has soared as his bid to return to the White Home gathers steam. Trump’s stake within the firm, Trump Media & Know-how Group, is now value about $4 billion, primarily based on buying and selling within the shares of a black-check acquisition car that has agreed to merge with it. If the deal closes, Trump would be capable of promote his shares within the mixed firm six months later.”

“Trump ruling defined: How the $355M judgment would possibly have an effect on his companies” [ABC]. “Trump is anticipated to enchantment the judgment. He has two avenues to take action. First, on the Appellate Division after which on the New York State Courtroom of Appeals. That can take time and will imply the case gained’t be put to mattress till 2025 on the earlieBut he can’t postpone paying the $355 million plus curiosity. It would primarily have to be saved in escrow through the appeals course of to make sure the plaintiff will get the cash Engoron ordered if his full judgment is upheld. It’s not clear the place it can come from. Trump, who claimed final yr to have $400 million in money, might put it up himself if his assertion is true. But it surely’s additionally the case that he’s going through one other hefty $83.3 million verdict within the civil trial he just lately misplaced to E. Jean Carroll. So he might search to borrow cash and use a giant asset (e.g., one in every of his buildings) as collateral. Provided that Engoron’s ruling bars him from getting a mortgage from any monetary establishment registered in New York – which probably guidelines out most main worldwide banks with places of work in New York, Thomas famous – which will imply he would wish to get a private mortgage from a non-financial establishment or an unregistered monetary firm. Or he would possibly must get assist from a really excessive web value particular person, who additionally could search a Trump enterprise asset as collateral to safe the mortgage.”

“Unique: Donald Trump To Problem Choose Engoron’s Fraud Definition” [Newsweek]. “The enchantment hinges on the definition of fraud used within the case. Professor Greg Germain of Syracuse College of Legislation advised Newsweek that on enchantment, Trump must present that the New York legal professional common doesn’t have the facility to punish him ‘with out displaying the standard components of fraud: (1) scienter—principally intent to defraud, (2) false statements of truth fairly than opinion or commerce puffing, (3) cheap reliance by the victims, (4) materiality, (5) causation, and (6) damages.’ ‘I feel he has a robust argument that when the legal professional common seeks to punish for previous use, fairly than forestall future use, she must present all the conventional components of fraud,’ he added. Nevertheless, James’ workforce will argue that, beneath New York government order 63.12, which provides the legal professional common her energy to prosecute fraud, she doesn’t have to indicate that every one six components are current. Government order 63.12 was established in 1956 and supplies the legal professional common with broad authority to challenge subpoenas and pursue civil fraud allegations with comparatively low authorized hurdles. ‘Choose Engoron dominated within the abstract judgment order that, beneath 63.12, the legal professional common doesn’t have to indicate any of these components—a displaying of falsity is sufficient, Germain stated. He stated that, had the courtroom utilized the complete six-part definition of fraud, it will have discovered little or no proof that the banks had a ‘cheap reliance’ on Trump’s statements. ‘The proof of cheap reliance [on Trump’s financial statements] by the ‘victims’ may be very weak’ and could also be grounds of enchantment,’ Germain stated. A banking official advised the trial that he didn’t not solely depend on Trump’s statements when assessing a mortgage utility and that the financial institution made its personal calculations.” • So, all that’s required, in line with Legal professional Basic James, is “a displaying of falsity.” Is Hochul actually claiming that the “law-abiding and rule-following New Yorkers who’re enterprise individuals” have by no means made any false statements when making actual property offers?

2024

Lower than a yr to go!

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Trump (R): “The Large Factor About Trump’s Presidency That Group Biden Must Get” [Michael Tomasky, The New Republic]. “For me and for many of my mates—and I’m guessing for you—the Trump presidency was each day hell for 4 years…. The ache and outrage by no means let up till shortly earlier than midday on January 20, 2021. That was life inside my bubble. And that was life contained in the bubbles of just about all loyal Democrats and/or dedicated members of the broad left for these four-plus years.” Love the framing, “loyal Democrats.” Extra: “Exterior our bubble, although, issues seemed totally different. I’m not speaking about MAGA America. These people, we all know all about. I’m speaking concerning the individuals in between. They’re the individuals who’ll resolve this election. And this election yr, these of us inside our bubble must go put our heads inside theirs. As a result of the place they reside, unbelievable as this will likely appear to you and me, the Trump years had been good, and he was a fairly succesful president.” Trump removed the ObamaCare mandate, saving me — coincidentally sufficient — 600 bucks on my taxes. Extra: “[W]hy would individuals carry a fond reminiscence of a presidential time period that many people contemplate to have been far and away the worst in American historical past? As a result of the financial system dominates individuals’s ideas alongside these traces, and till the pandemic, the financial system beneath Trump was fairly good, a minimum of within the methods we measure this stuff. Yet another statistic: the median family revenue quantity in 2019. Median family revenue rose steadily through the Obama years after the meltdown. A thousand right here, three thousand there. That’s the way it normally goes, traditionally. However from 2018 to 2019, . And greater than that: It rose extra within the lowest quintile than within the highest. Much more.” • Then, after all, there was the CARES Act, which put a big dent in poverty through the pandemic, and which Biden promptly dismantled. And say what you want about Trump, he wasn’t a warmonger.

Trump (R): “Rightwing mega-donors drift again to Trump as election rematch looms” [Guardian]. “Donald Trump’s efforts to courtroom and cajole rightwing billionaires into financing his presidential marketing campaign are bearing fruit as even sceptical conservative mega-donors withstand the prospect he’ll once more be the Republican candidate…. Trump’s marketing campaign is pushing the inevitability of his victory over the previous South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, the final remaining challenger within the Republican primaries, with the intention to shift the main target to the final election as he pursues Wall Avenue and Silicon Valley cash. Trump efficiently wooed the most important donor to the Florida governor Ron DeSantis’s failed presidential marketing campaign throughout a go to to Las Vegas final month, the billionaire developer Robert Bigelow. After assembly Trump after which becoming a member of his motorcade by Las Vegas to a political rally, Bigelow pledged $20m to the previous president’s marketing campaign – the identical quantity he gave to DeSantis – together with one other $1m towards the mounting prices of his myriad authorized issues. Trump additionally gained commitments from different well-heeled donors on the Las Vegas journey whereas the billionaire investor John Paulson held a dinner for the previous president and main Republican social gathering contributors earlier this month, in line with Politico.” • Reversion to the meanest…..

Trump (R): “Trump allies put together to infuse ‘Christian nationalism’ in second administration” [Politico]. “An influential suppose tank near Donald Trump is growing plans to infuse Christian nationalist concepts in his administration ought to the previous president return to energy, in line with paperwork obtained by POLITICO. Spearheading the hassle is Russell Vought, who served as Trump’s director of the Workplace of Administration and Price range throughout his first time period and has remained near him. Vought, who’s regularly cited as a possible chief of workers in a second Trump White Home, is president of The Middle for Renewing America suppose tank, a number one group in a conservative consortium getting ready for a second Trump time period…. One doc drafted by CRA workers and fellows features a listing of high priorities for CRA in a second Trump time period. “Christian nationalism” is among the bullet factors. Others embrace invoking the Rebel Act on Day One to quash protests and refusing to spend licensed congressional funds on undesirable initiatives, a apply banned by lawmakers within the Nixon period…. Vought, who declined to remark, is advising Challenge 2025, a governing agenda that might usher in probably the most conservative government branches in fashionable American historical past. The hassle is made up of a constellation of conservative teams run by Trump allies who’ve constructed an in depth plan to dismantle or overhaul key businesses in a second time period. Amongst different rules, the undertaking’s ‘Mandate for Management‘ states that ‘freedom is outlined by God, not man.’” • An, “Mandate for Management.” In 2004, Bush the Youthful prattled about his mandate. Google bombing was nonetheless doable, again within the day, so I organized for Mandate journal to be the highest hit for a search on “Bush Mandate”; a gentleman sporting a sailor’s cap, if I recall. I hope the identical factor occurs to those guys, besides quite a bit worse.

Trump (R): “The Actual Problem of Trump 2.0” [Foreign Affairs]. “whereas out of energy, Trump’s workforce has executed the transition work it didn’t do the primary time round; they are going to be empowered by a reworked Republican Social gathering and are available geared up with a really detailed listing of mates and foes—and thus be higher positioned to bend bureaucratic politics to their will…. within the few areas the place slow-rolling and end-running and different regular bureaucratic gimmicks had been used to thwart a decided Trumpian coverage flourish, the paucity of true-believing MAGA warriors at each stage of the paperwork made it tough for Trump to have his whims fulfilled. It’s removed from clear that there will likely be such guardrails this time round.” • Yeah, thank God the adults within the room stopped Trump from eradicating our colonial outposts in Syria!

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Biden (D): “Joe the Rainmaker? Funds, offers adopted key Biden conferences with son’s international associates” [Just the News]. “Proof together with sworn impeachment inquiry testimony, confirmed emails and monetary information more and more present that President Joe Biden’s conferences along with his son’s international shoppers had been intently adopted by funds and agreements that superior his household’s enterprise offers. Home Republicans on Thursday subpoenaed new monetary information belonging to Hunter Biden, his associates, and corporations in a rising effort to search out proof that Joe Biden benefited personally from his son’s international dealings. Rep. Greg Steube agreed on the ‘Simply the Information, No Noise’ tv present on Thursday that Joe Biden performed a “rainmaker” position in Hunter Biden’s enterprise ventures. ‘We’ve recognized that every one alongside and now we’re getting corroborating witness testimony,’ Steube stated. ‘Fortunately, for the subpoenas which have been issued to the monetary establishments, we now have monetary proof of the cash that was laundered from the Chinese language Communist Social gathering or Russian oligarchs, or the Ukrainian authorities and entities by the Biden members of the family, his brother, James Biden, and Hunter Biden.’ ‘And we all know that clearly, Joe Biden was the impetus behind all of that,’ Steube claimed.” “Claimed,” certainly. “Clearly” is doing quite a lot of work, there. Personally, I feel all that’s wanted is to indicate that the Biden clan benefitted, not Biden personally. All these financial institution accounts, all these loans; a giant river of Biden money, with many tributaries, some fairly small.

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IL: “Boy, 5, dies after contracting COVID, Strep and a pair of different viruses: ‘An excessive amount of for a bit physique’” [Today]. “A 5-year-old boy in Chicago who was staying at a migrant shelter has died of sepsis, which developed after he contracted COVID-19 and Strep A.” • Submitting this right here as an alternative beneath Immune Dysregulation in Covid, as a result of Chicago is in Pritzker’s patch, and it seems like his migrant shelters are hellholes.

IL: “Metropolis releases assertion after boy dies, others hospitalized following sickness at migrant shelter” [NBC Chicago]. “Monday, a spokesperson with the Chicago Hearth Division stated that ‘a number of’ different people on the shelter, the place about 2,000 individuals had been staying, required hospitalization, together with a 1-year-old woman and a 4-year-old woman. An 18-year-old girl was additionally hospitalized early Monday, hearth officers stated. Based on a Chicago Division of Public Well being spokesperson, there have been reported circumstances of Varicella, generally often known as chickenpox, in each kids and adults on the Pilsen shelter.” • Nothing about measles. But. Higher repair this earlier than the Democrat Nationwide Conference August 19!

Realignment and Legitimacy

“6 Guidelines for Truly Altering Folks’s Minds” [Strong Towns]. “Everyone knows on some stage that there’s a giant distinction between being proper and being convincing. But in apply, quite a lot of us are assured within the former however unstrategic concerning the latter. After we discover that being proper in a public discussion board is just not sufficient to deliver individuals round, we reply by making an attempt to be proper extra forcefully, aggressively, or exasperatedly. Outcomes are predictably poor…. 1. Persons are persuaded by tales, not by info… 2. The unfold of beliefs is a social course of, not a person one…. 3. Our minds are modified by trusted messengers…. 4. No one trusts a jerk (besides the jerk who’s already on their aspect)…. 5. Our elementary beliefs are modified little by little, not all of sudden…. 6. Social consensus is much less strong than it appears.” Extra on level 6: “What seems to be a monolithic consensus typically isn’t: fairly, it’s a handful of loud voices in a suggestions loop with one another, and lots of others who fall someplace between passive gentle settlement and selecting to simply keep quiet. Arguing straight with the loudest and most demagogic members in such a neighborhood—and thus with the obvious social consensus—doesn’t work very effectively. So what does? How do you begin to shift that social consensus if you happen to suppose that there’s a complete neighborhood that has acquired one thing principally incorrect? You begin to crack open some doorways. Level out issues that aren’t at 180-degree odds with the bulk view, however that complicate it or introduce nuance. Level out a perspective that isn’t normally heard (these of renters in a dialog dominated by householders; these of people that stroll or use wheelchairs or strollers in a dialog dominated by drivers). Don’t be preachy or obnoxious about it. Don’t act such as you’re making an attempt to win a debate. Do it with an consciousness of the core narratives of the area you’re in. Do it in a means that one or two of the group’s trusted messengers—those that are distinguished voices but in addition seem amenable to nuance and disagreement—will hear you as a principally pleasant countervailing voice.” • Hmm.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Search for the Helpers

“Knowledge analyst Greg Travis speaks on COVID pandemic-related extra deaths within the US” [WSWS]. “One of many essential byproducts of the ‘without end COVID’ insurance policies carried out by the ruling elites, abandoning any battle towards the pandemic and even dismantling monitoring of COVID circumstances by public well being businesses, has been the emergence of a layer of principled well being care consultants, information analysts and researchers who’re offering real-time data on the precise state of the pandemic. The COVID-19 an infection trackers maintained by Dr. Mike Hoerger and information scientist Jay Weiland, with modeling primarily based on wastewater ranges of SARS-CoV-2, have documented the large scale of infections which have been sweeping throughout the USA and the remainder of the world. Their weekly studies underscore the persevering with excessive charges of each day infections, giving a glimpse into the general public well being disaster that’s happening beneath an entire media blackout of the pandemic. Viral sleuths like Ryan Hisner, Raj Rajnarayanan and others have turned to their social media channels, which perform as data hubs to build up data on the newest subvariants and their mutations. A lot of their preliminary studies, similar to on Pirola in August after which JN.1 in September 2023, had been essential in giving the world a substantive alert on the large wave of infections that has since washed over the globe, whereas nationwide public businesses just like the US Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) had been taking pains to cowl up these developments.” • That is completely terrific and a should learn (though I feel “layer” is, analytically, the incorrect phrase. Ditto “by-product”; hardly dialectical).

Transmission

“Transmission of Viruses from Restroom Use: A Quantitative Microbial Threat Evaluation” [Food and Environmental Virology]. From the Dialogue: “Restrooms have been implicated as a supply of hepatitis A, norovirus, and SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, and contamination of restroom fomites has been documented in a number of research (Abney et al., 2021). A number of routes of publicity throughout restroom use can happen, similar to accumulation of pathogens on the physique and garments of the person by aerosolization throughout bathroom flushing, direct inhalation of aerosols, or oblique transmission following deposition of aerosolized pathogens on numerous surfaces all through the restroom (from use of face towels, contaminated cleaning soap bars, or different high-touch surfaces, similar to bathroom lid, flush deal with, taps, door handles, and so on.)” Be aware that the Summary doesn’t point out “inhalation” (!). However restrooms are 3Cs areas, in order that’s an apparent route of transmission:

They even combine “inhalation” and “hand contamination” in Determine 1. Dudes, fomites aren’t like aerosols!

“Who We Are” [Global Handwashing Partnership]. “The World Handwashing Partnership is a coalition of worldwide stakeholders who work explicitly to advertise handwashing with cleaning soap and acknowledge hygiene as a pillar of worldwide growth and public well being.” • Proctor and Gamble, Johnson, Colgate-Palmolive… Cleaning soap makes and a gaggle of NGOs (not together with Pontius Pilate or Girl Macbeth. Too dangerous). Now, I’m all for handwashing. Handwashing is nice! However the distinction to wash air is admittedly heartbreaking.

Elite Maleficence

Tedros is a mendacity weasel on airborne, and this thread has him lifeless to rights:

“Governor Hochul proposes ending COVID-19 Sick Depart Legislation” [ABC]. “Governor Kathy Hochul has proposed eliminating the state’s COVID-19 sick depart legislation in her proposed state finances. The legislation went into impact in 2020. It requires employers to supply COVID sick depart for workers beneath necessary or precautionary order of quarantine. It might finish July thirty first. The Governor’s proposal says one of many causes is as a result of quarantine necessities have modified. Her workplace launched an announcement saying, ‘New York State has one of many nation’s strongest paid sick depart insurance policies, offering most staff with as much as 56 hours of paid sick depart annually, and Governor Hochul’s FY25 government finances contains further expansions of medical and incapacity depart.’ The Enterprise Council of New York helps the proposal. ‘We perceive the pandemic remains to be with us,’ stated Frank Kerbein, Director of the Middle for Human Assets on the Enterprise Council of New York State. ‘There’s nonetheless people who are suffering from COVID. On the similar time in 2020 the state handed a brand new necessary paid sick depart that every one employers have to supply 40 or 56 hours of pay break day for workers. That is sufficient. We really feel that is sufficient now to assist staff who’re nonetheless impacted by COVID.’” • CA provides 40 hours…

TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new right this moment; all others should not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Once more, no backward revisions. The uptick is actual (a minimum of to Biobot). Be aware this anomaly:

Seems to be like Covid may not be seasonal? Who knew? Hoerger feedback:

[2] (Biobot) Right here, FWIW, is Verily regional information as of February 20. CDC Area 1:

And Area 2:

Verily information, then, reveals no anomaly. Presumably, Biobot sewersheds and Verily sewersheds don’t overlap.

[3] (CDC Variants) “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] (ER) Doesn’t assist Biobot information. “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.”

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) A bit extra lower, in line with Biobot information, however not a lot. Let’s wait and see.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and acquired examined anyhow.

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening, in line with Biobot information.

[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Down, albeit within the rear view mirror.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 completely dominant.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of curiosity right this moment.

Manufacturing: “‘A horrible, excellent storm’: Frustrations rise as scarcity of Adderall, different ADHD remedy continues” [Chicago Tribune]. “In October 2022, the U.S. Meals and Drug Administration formally introduced a nationwide Adderall scarcity, leaving hundreds of thousands scrambling to acquire prescription stimulant remedy. Over a yr later, there’s no finish in sight, and a tangled community of causes has made for no clear answer.” Extra: “Entry to prescription stimulant drugs first started to unravel firstly of the COVID-19 pandemic. Physicians began reporting a big leap in ADHD diagnoses. Analysis compiled by FDA-affiliated students indicated that prescriptions for stimulant drugs amongst individuals aged 20 to 29 rose 30% from April 2018 to March 2022. There are a number of theories on why that’s the case, together with the convenience of telehealth, elevated ADHD consciousness and the added stressors of distant work, consultants say.” To not point out family and friends getting sick and choking to dying on the bloody mush of their lungs! WTF is incorrect with these “consultants”? Extra: “In the meantime, a significant drugmaker started to expertise an Adderall manufacturing delay, in line with the FDA. When sufferers turned to various prescription stimulant drugs, these too turned scarce. Though the manufacturing delay has since been resolved, its long-lasting results are exacerbated by unprecedented demand. Many pharmacies nationwide nonetheless have unpredictable stock. ‘It was only a horrible, excellent storm that basically has trapped our sufferers from getting what they should work, to carry out in school, to have the ability to reside their lives,’ [Julie Carbray, a clinical professor of psychiatry and nursing at the University of Illinois Chicago] stated. One other hurdle: As a result of stimulant remedy is a managed substance, most individuals with ADHD can get hold of solely a 30-day provide at a time.” • Exhausting for me to determine, as a result of I’m so previous I wasn’t drugged in class for being a boy. That stated, it appears exceptional to me that the magic of {the marketplace} is unable to resolve a provide challenge, so WTF? Nevertheless–

Manufacturing: “The Empty Adderall Manufacturing facility” [New York Magazine]. “There’s been a nationwide scarcity of ADHD remedy for greater than a yr and a half. Based on the federal government and business consultants, there are a number of overlapping causes: manufacturing issues, labor points, supply-chain failures, and an enormous rise in demand through the pandemic. However Ascent claims there’s one other issue exacerbating the scarcity, one which’s utterly sui generis: the truth that it’s been shut down by the Drug Enforcement Administration. The company has accused Ascent of shabby recordkeeping that may have allowed hundreds of thousands of drugs to go unaccounted for. Ascent makes painkillers along with stimulants, and, amid the continuing opioid epidemic, the DEA has been beneath stress to indicate it’s aggressively policing the business. (The company didn’t reply to requests for remark.) Ascent has stated that its paperwork is so as and has sued the Division of Justice to get its meeting traces working once more. A decision doesn’t appear probably anytime quickly. Within the meantime, the corporate is producing zero ADHD meds. If its claims are true, that’s 600 million doses per yr lacking from the market. As Ascent says in its lawsuit, ‘Turning off that offer is making a grave scenario infinitely worse.’” • A drugmaker named “Ascent.” That’s an excessive amount of!

Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 66 Greed (earlier shut: 75 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 71 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Final up to date Feb 20 at 1:31:21 PM ET.

The Gallery

“As Seen on ‘Blade Runner 2049′: A Turner Canvas Reflecting Technological Dystopia” [Artnet]. “Hidden away in an important scene is nothing apart from a portray by English Romantic painter J.M.W. Turner that echoes the scene’s misty ambiance and should even have been meant to strengthen the movie’s presentation of the specter of the prevalence of the technological over the pure…. [K, the replicant protagonist,] tracks… Deckard (performed by Ford as within the unique) to the ruins of Las Vegas… Deckard inhabits the deserted Classic On line casino, surrounded by antique-looking objects: work dangle on the wall…. When you blinked, you would possibly miss it, however Turner’s portray Rain, Steam and Pace – The Nice Western Railway (1844) hangs on the wall over Ford’s shoulder; the darkish traces of a viaduct main into the space are unmistakable…. Within the portray, a steam engine crosses a railway bridge within the rain. Turner depicted a hare alongside the prepare observe to spotlight the distinction between the velocity of the animal, a product of nature, and the prepare, a technological advance. (Based on the Nationwide Gallery in London, the place the portray resides, ‘The animal is now invisible because the paint has change into clear with age, however it may be seen in an 1859 engraving of the portray.’).” • Right here it’s:

(The hare is or can be at backside proper; I’m glad for the Nationwide Gallery word as a result of I used to be going nuts looking for it.) Another reason for Blade Runner 2049‘s superiority over the unique [ducks].

Guillotine Watch

“The gloves are off amongst Silicon Valley CEOs” [Business Insider]. “It’s removed from clear who the winners and losers of those new open rivalries will likely be. What’s extra sure, in line with Y Combinator cofounder Paul Graham a minimum of, is that innovation might occur quicker than it has in a while.” • That’s too dangerous.

Information of the Wired

“Why is nobody making a brand new model of previous Fb?” [12 Challenges]. “Both: billions of people that used to search out previous Fb helpful have modified their preferences in the previous few years, and not want one thing like that, Or: an enormous unmet demand at present exists for a social community which relies on the social graph, as an alternative of the content material graph, and which is pre-enshittification. Sure, the social graph has moved elsewhere, principally to messaging platforms. However as Toby factors out, these lack lots of the options that we used to take as a right on Fb — as an example, creating occasions, inviting mates, organising teams (non-messaging ones, which had been extra like boards), and the serendipity/utility of a high-quality feed which included individuals you cared about.” • I haven’t used Fb in over a decade, and it gained’t let me create a brand new account as a result of it nonetheless remembers me, in some way (ugh). However certainly the identical applies to Google? A Google that used PageRank? A pre-evil Google?

Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From CK:

CK writes: “An Oregon meadow in June all executed up as pointillism, or so it appears to my eye.” Beautiful!

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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