2:00PM Water Cooler 9/6/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

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Chook Tune of the Day

Grey Catbird, Lake Massapoag, Norfolk, Massachusetts, United States.

In Case You May Miss…

1. New RCP charts: race tied (and plenty of revisions to the Covid desk as effectively).
2. Kamala’s marketing campaign retains her wrapped in tissue paper.
3. One other Boeing manufacturing debacle shaping up properly.

Search for the Helpers

My electronic mail handle is down by the plant; please ship examples of there (“Helpers” within the topic line). In our more and more determined and fragile neoliberal society, on a regular basis regular incidents and tales of “the communism of on a regular basis life” are what I’m on the lookout for (and never, say, the Crimson Cross in Hawaii, and even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than 100 days to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

I’d say the bloom is off the rose for Harris, apart from an upward blip in Georgia. Appears like the big liberalgasm afte the Conference was confined to occasion loyalists. The Kamala marketing campaign have to be sore as boils Trump is inside placing distance, not to mention tied with them. What might account for it? Maybe that’s why the pivot to RussiaGate. Bear in mind, nonetheless, that each one the fluctuations — in actual fact, all of the leads, high to backside — are throughout the margin of error.

It’s shut:

That is the closest presidential marketing campaign 60+ years. The race has been constantly shut in a manner I’ve by no means seen. If the polling is off by a single level in the important thing swing states, the winner would flip.

The underside line is that this election is up for grabs with 2 months to go. pic.twitter.com/vmZH3PIVxR

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 6, 2024

Or not!

🚨NEW: Democrat-voting pollster Nate Silver releases new Presidential prediction mannequin displaying commanding Trump lead:

ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS:

🟥Trump: 60.1% (+20.4)

🟦Harris: 39.7% pic.twitter.com/md7Co7lkGQ

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 5, 2024

Responses already stuffed with RussiaGate bots…

“Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” [Project FiveThirtyEight]. “Vice President Kamala Harris continues to steer former President Donald Trump in nationwide polls and within the swing states, however her margin has slipped modestly during the last two weeks. On Aug. 23, our polling common had Harris up on Trump by 3.7 share factors. Her margin at the moment is a relatively decrease +3.2. Because the polls have gotten nearer, Harris’s chance of victory in our election mannequin has additionally slipped, from 60-in-100 final week to 56-in-100 at the moment.” • A gradual bleed. Quick sufficient?

“‘Torn 20’ voters, nonetheless on the fence, will resolve if Trump or Harris prevails” [USA Today]. “Within the August USA TODAY/Suffolk College nationwide ballot of doubtless voters… We discovered a section of the inhabitants (75 respondents, about 8%) that, with solely 2 months till election day, continues to be both undecided or deciding on third-party candidates as each their first and second alternative. That’s practically twice as giant as the present margin separating Harris and Trump. (Harris at the moment leads Trump, 47.6% to 43.3%.)” The election is a Sophie’s alternative, so in actual fact 8% is a remarkably small determine. Extra: “The general cause? USA TODAY’s Washington Bureau Chief Susan Web page summarized the information effectively: “‘Probably voters are holding again from Harris largely as a result of they don’t know sufficient about her, and those self same voters are holding again from Trump as a result of they know an excessive amount of about him.’” (Therefore my view that Kamala doesn’t know who she is may carry weight; they don’t know sufficient about her as a result of there’s nothing to know._) From the interviews with these twenty voters:

Appears just like the double haters haven’t actually gone away.

* * *

The Debate (September 10)

* * *

Kamala (D): “One Huge Factor Kamala Is Getting Proper” [Jill Filipovic, Slate]. “If Kamala Harris wins the 2024 election, she would be the first feminine president ever, and the primary Black and Indian feminine president too. However regardless of the historic nature of her candidacy, she doesn’t wish to concentrate on her id—and, in a reasonably notable flip, neither does her occasion.” Maybe as a result of Trump threw a brushbaclk pitch? That stated, I’m undecided the candidates’s focus is all that decreased; collard greens, and so forth. We’ll additionally wait to see if Kamala performs that card in debate; I’m guessing she’s going to, since in any case what number of playing cards does she need to play? Extra: “And but I additionally consider there’s something shallow, and generally extremely counterproductive, a few concentrate on id. It flattens greater than it layers on, and it’s definitely damaging to progressive actions when id is wielded as a cudgel or a gotcha. Donald Trump’s 4 years in workplace had been such a shock to the system, and such a victory for racism and sexism that the politics of id on the left went into overdrive. Quite a lot of good got here out of this: actions towards racial injustice and sexual abuse; a broader shared vocabulary with which to speak about energy and equity. However, as inevitably occurs with well-meaning however extraordinarily zealous social actions, there have been excesses.” • That is foolish. Id politics had been in overdrive for years, and really effectively funded within the NGOs, too. You may’t blame Trump for that. Good strive.

Kamala (D): “How Harris dodges scrutiny” [Axios]. Value studying in full. This caught my eye

Harris is copying President Biden’s self-protection media technique — duck powerful interviews and restrict improvisational moments.

Her circumstances are totally different, for certain. She entered the race simply seven weeks in the past, did dozens of interviews this 12 months earlier than Biden’s exit, and plans to do extra interviews and gaggles.

However along with her debate with former President Trump arising Tuesday (9pm ET), Harris has massive inquiries to reply in two areas that go to the center of operating America:

1. Why did President Biden’s high advisers routinely leak phrase they discovered her efficiency as vp disappointing or episodically problematic?

2. How did her views change in 5 years, from liberal to centrist on well being care, immigration and power? Why ought to voters consider her new views are those she’d keep on with contained in the White Home?

Conserving your candidate wrapped in tissue paper just isn’t an indication of power. And if there’s one factor we learn about Trump, it’s that he’s skilled in sniffing out weak point and profiting from it. However with Harris in hiding, that’s not really easy to do. Maybe in “the” debate (just one? Actually? In a Presidential marketing campaign?). Mark Penn, amazingly, will get it proper:

One interview. One debate. Some rah rah stump speech you learn again and again. And voila you’ve a 50 per cent likelihood of being president.

Good gig if you may get it. No 3 debates. No 2 years of primaries, coalition constructing, no detailed coverage improvement, and no day by day press…

— Mark Penn (@Mark_Penn) September 4, 2024

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris ran her workplace like a prosecutor. Not everybody favored that” [WaPo]. • Value studying in full, since that is in essence the case for Harris. I don’t discover it spectacular, notably the problems she selected to concentrate on (and for the remainder of it, no person’s going to present a straight reply now anyhow. The Axios article instantly above is far sharper.

Kamala (D): “Harris abandons 2019 pledge to ban plastic straws” [Axios]. • Ouch!

Kamala (D): Additionally ouch:

simply realized andrew tate and kamala harris put on the identical silhouette pic.twitter.com/JdX8bW7V13

— derek man (@dieworkwear) September 6, 2024

* * *

Trump (R): “Choose Merchan delays sentencing in Trump’s hush cash case till after election” [MSNBC]. “Choose Juan Merchan has agreed to delay Donald Trump’s sentencing in New York till after the election, displaying the most recent manner that the GOP presidential nominee has benefited from the Supreme Court docket’s immunity ruling. Trump’s attorneys cited the ruling in in search of to push the Sept. 18 sentencing. Merchan had beforehand set Sept. 16 to rule on Trump’s movement to overturn his responsible verdicts based mostly on the immunity ruling, and his attorneys signaled to the decide that if he guidelines towards them on that movement, then they’ll instantly attraction previous to sentencing. On Friday, Merchan stated he’ll now resolve whether or not to put aside the responsible verdicts on Nov. 12 after which proceed to sentencing (if vital) on Nov. 26. Election day is Nov. 5. Merchan postponed the matter reluctantly, writing to the events on Friday that doing so would keep away from any look — ‘nonetheless unwarranted,’ the decide wrote — that the continuing had been affected by or sought to have an effect on the election.”

Trump (R): “Proof in January 6 case towards Trump could possibly be launched earlier than election underneath new schedule” [CNN]. “Smith’s workforce stated Thursday that they needed to file an preliminary transient that would come with ‘substantial displays’ that may lay out for the decide the context, type and content material of related proof within the case – .” • What. Why? Commentary on the “substantial displays”:

Guys, it’s not a win that the J6 case towards Donald Trump just isn’t going to trial earlier than the election.

What Chutkan did at the moment by taking the uncommon—unprecedented?—step of permitting DOJ to file an “opening transient” on further immunity questions is a method to put Trump on trial with out…

— Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) September 5, 2024

* * *
* * *

Kennedy (I): “How can Kamala Harris attain RFK Jr. supporters? Inform the reality.” [MSNBC] • However she’s a Democrat…

* * *

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Navy Secretary Broke Legislation With Trump-Bashing, Professional-Biden Feedback: Watchdog” [Associated Press]. “Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro broke the legislation by publicly endorsing the reelection of President Joe Biden and criticizing former President Donald Trump in a number of statements he made whereas on official responsibility abroad, the U.S. Workplace of Particular Counsel stated Thursday. In a report back to the White Home, the watchdog company stated Del Toro’s feedback in regards to the presidential election got here in a BBC interview and when he was responding to questions after a speech in London…. The company stated Del Toro’s feedback, which had been made earlier than Biden dropped out of the presidential race, violate the Hatch Act, which prohibits U.S. officers from partaking in political exercise whereas they’re on responsibility and from ‘utilizing their official authority or affect to ‘” • Oh. “Election interference” that truly breaks the legislation. If Del Toro had been a Republican endorsing Trump, the bleating and yammering would go on for weeks.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

–>

Transmission: Covid

“Covid summer season surge persevering with into fall, state information present” [Minnesota Refomer]. “”The dimensions and period of this surge is uncommon for summer season,” Brown College epidemiologist Jennifer Nuzzo not too long ago famous on the web site previously often called Twitter. Hospitalizations are additionally operating about 50% increased than throughout the identical interval one 12 months in the past, suggesting an early begin to this 12 months’s COVID season.” • Gonna need to pry the “seasonal” paradigm type the chilly lifeless palms of epidemologists…

Maskstravaganza

“Free Rein and No Steerage: Lengthy Island’s Cop-Enforced Masks Ban Isn’t Going Nice” [Mother Jones]. “For the reason that masks ban legislation was enacted, two individuals have been charged with misdemeanors for violating it, punishable by as much as a 12 months in jail and a $1,000 high-quality. In each circumstances, [Beth Haroules, a senior staff attorney at NYCLU] says, ‘there in all probability wasn’t possible trigger to arrest both gentleman.’ Haroules agrees with considerations that individuals of shade can be disproportionately focused for sporting masks. The Nassau County Police Division, Haroules says, ‘has a documented historical past of inappropriate interactions with individuals of shade.’ (It additionally has a troubled report on different fronts, together with round residents’ civil rights.) Selecting to put on masks, as Haroules instructed Mom Jones she herself continues to do on public transportation, is a person determination which masks bans threaten. Having different group members ‘implementing the masks ban by threatening to name police,’ Haroules says, ‘actually means that there’s a societal drawback.’” • Certainly.

Depopulation continues apace, good job:

Stunning statistic– previous to the pandemic Indiana vaccination charges for 3 yr olds stood at 70%. At this time simply over half of Indiana 3 yr olds have obtained their routine vaccinations (polio, measles, and so forth.)

We’re quickly going backwards on a serious predictor of life expectancy. 😞

— Jerome Adams (@JeromeAdamsMD) September 6, 2024

Morbidity and Mortality

“In Australia, COVID-19 deaths might have stopped reducing” [Virology Down Under]. “The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) printed glorious information on deaths attributable to or with COVID-19 in Australia from 2022 to July 2024. Deaths dropped between 2022 and 2023, however they stopped dropping additional in 2024. Is that this baseline of dying ‘dwelling with COVID-19′?”

Elite Maleficence

They know #CovidIsAirborne. They only don’t need you to know:

The “palace” of Westminster. Faculties and hospitals ought to be “palaces” too. However they’re not.

Lambert right here: The figures look mildly encouraging for now, however I’d count on an instantaneous worsening after Labor Day journey kicks in, together with grade faculties, excessive faculties, and schools beginning up. Keep protected on the market!

TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new at the moment; all others are usually not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with scorching spots annotated. Retains spreading.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very fashionable. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, however price noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flat, that’s, now not down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what’s, in share phrases, a big enhance.

[7] (Walgreens) Huge drop, however all these white states displaying no change: Labor Day weekend reporting points?

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Down. These sh*theads at CDC have modified the chart in order that it doesn’t even run again to 1/21/23, because it used to, however now begins 1/1/24. There’s additionally no method to modify the time vary. CDC actually doesn’t need you to have the ability to take a historic view of the pandemic, or evaluate one surge to a different. In an any case, that’s why the form of the curve has modified.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, however positivity up. If the US is like Canada, deaths are a number of undercounted:

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Unemployment Charge” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment fee in the US eased to 4.2% in August of 2024 from the October 2021 excessive of 4.3% within the prior month, aligning with market expectations.”

Actual Property: Talking of workplaces:

Manufacturing: “As strike looms, Boeing pushes 777 jets by way of chaotic manufacturing in Everett” [Seattle Times (PI)]. “For months, Boeing’s management has claimed repeatedly that slowing the tempo of jet manufacturing and renewing the concentrate on inspections will guarantee manufacturing high quality. As a possible strike by 33,000 machinists looms subsequent week, that’s not the truth mechanics see inside Boeing’s widebody jet plant in Everett. Managers there are at the moment pushing partially assembled 777 jets by way of the meeting line, leaving tens of hundreds of unfinished jobs attributable to defects and components shortages to be accomplished out of sequence on every airplane, in accordance with three individuals working immediately on 777 meeting. Although the manufacturing fee of 777 jets is at a crawl, with a complete of simply 11 deliveries to date this 12 months, staff describe a chaotic office. Mechanics are chasing airplanes by way of the Everett manufacturing unit to put in methods that ought to have gone in earlier and to finish rework of defects on 777 cargo planes which have traveled far down the meeting line and even exterior onto the Paine Subject flight line, stated a veteran 777 mechanic who works on fuselages…. A longtime 777 high quality inspector in Everett — who, like the opposite staff quoted right here, requested anonymity as a result of he feared retaliation — stated Boeing has moved new inspectors onto the meeting line who’re unfamiliar with the work.

At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 39 Concern (earlier shut: 46 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 62 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 6 at 2:43:52 PM ET.

Gallery

A “sunny nook” (besides exterior):

Zeitgeist Watch

“Church buildings Take Homeschooling in a Stunning Course” [The American Conservative]. “t is hardly information that homeschooling has taken off across the nation, particularly since Covid. During the last 12 months alone, in accordance with the Census Bureau’s Family Pulse Survey, the variety of US homeschooled college students has gone from 3.6 million to 4 million—an 11 p.c enhance. Much less well-known is the position America’s church buildings have performed in not solely facilitating the unfold of homeschooling however in serving to to make it a much more collaborative and even extremely structured exercise. By offering teams of homeschool households with an area that goes largely unused through the week and a small supervisory workers, many parishes have efficiently mixed on-line curricula with an atmosphere extra typical of a traditional public or personal faculty… Precisely what number of church buildings throughout the nation supply such organized types of homeschooling is difficult to say, as a result of solely Alabama, California, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Tennessee, and Washington explicitly grant space church buildings or parochial faculties the appropriate to oversee homeschoolers.” • The least TAC might do is point out air flow….

“Cough or sneeze? How the mind is aware of what to unleash” [Nature]. “Does a whiff of pollen set off a sneeze or a cough? Scientists have found nerve cells that trigger one response versus one other: ‘sneeze neurons’ within the nasal passages relay sneeze indicators to the mind, and separate neurons ship cough messages, in accordance with a examine carried out in mice.” However: “Does a whiff of pollen set off a sneeze or a cough? Scientists have found nerve cells that trigger one response versus one other: ‘sneeze neurons’ within the nasal passages relay sneeze indicators to the mind, and separate neurons ship cough messages, in accordance with a study1 carried out in mice.”

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