From Polymarket, accessed 4pm CT as we speak:
So low likelihood…however, it is a bunch of non-American residents betting on a US financial occasion. For comparability, Polymarket (which can’t function within the US) signifies 52-46 Trump/Harris, whereas PredictIt (which might function within the US) charges 52-52. Polymarket has persistently predicted the next probability of Trump successful (vs. Harris) than PredicIt.
I need to confess some uncertainty in regards to the betting, since end result is to be decided by 12/31/2024, however we gained’t have This autumn GDP till January 2025…Listed below are the foundations:
This market will resolve to “Sure” if the Bureau of Financial Evaluation (BEA) studies two consecutive quarters of unfavourable GDP progress in the US inside the calendar 12 months 2024, primarily based on the seasonally adjusted annual price. This consists of any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-This autumn. The willpower will probably be primarily based on essentially the most just lately launched report by the BEA for every quarter.
If GDP information for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised earlier than the discharge of the Advance Estimate for This autumn, the latest revision accessible will probably be used for market decision as a substitute of the preliminary Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the discharge of the This autumn Advance Estimate is not going to be thought-about for any quarters, together with This autumn itself.
The first decision supply for this market is the BEA’s official information on the seasonally adjusted annualized p.c change in quarterly US actual GDP, as accessible on their web site. A consensus of credible reporting may additionally be used if there may be ambiguity within the official information.
