From the CPI launch:
Determine 1: CPI – meals at house (blue), ERS forecast as of January (purple triangle), ERS forecast as of August (mild blue sq.), Chained CPI – meals at house (mild inexperienced), all normalized to 2020M01=1.00. Chained meals at house CPI element seasonally adjusted by creator utilizing X-13 (in logs). Supply: BLS, USDA ERS, and creator’s calculations.
Word that meals at house costs are primarily at January 2024 ranges, no matter utilizing the official CPI, or the chained CPI. Given August costs, the ERS August forecast (based mostly on pre-August launch knowledge) suggests a slight downward motion within the remaining months. Nonetheless, because the prediction interval is 0.4% to 2.0% (for y/y level prediction of 1.2%), worth will increase are very attainable within the the rest of the yr.
How have Midwest costs fared, by comparability. Utilizing the B/C metropolis dimension class, I get hold of the next image.
Determine 2: CPI – meals at house nationwide (blue), meals at house for Midwest (B/C cities) (brown), all normalized to 2020M01=1.00. Midwest at house meals CPI element seasonally adjusted by creator utilizing X-13 (in logs). Supply: BLS, USDA ERS, and creator’s calculations.
