2:00PM Water Cooler 9/19/2024 | bare capitalism

“How the Trump marketing campaign has been pressured to adapt to assassination threats” [WaPo]. “Lower than two weeks after an murderer’s bullet grazed Donald Trump’s ear this summer season, he was held backstage at a Nashville occasion for greater than an hour due to a possible safety menace… The delay was emblematic of a rising burden that the alarming threats to Trump’s life have change into for him and his marketing campaign.” I’m not saying something about causality, however the web impact is strictly like lawfare: A marketing campaign’s most useful useful resource is the candidates time, and these “threats” suck it up. Extra: “Occasions have taken far longer to plan due to restricted assets. Bulletproof glass now packing containers him in at outside occasions. Marketing campaign officers have been warned by the federal government about the potential for [see above] that might goal the previous president. His staff has gotten nervous about drones focusing on him at golf programs and at outside venues after listening to briefings from the Secret Service.”

“17% Say America Would Be Higher Off If Trump Had Been Killed” [Napolitano News Service] (about). Rassmussen on-line ballot, so take with a truckload of salts. “Seventeen % (17%) of voters consider America would have been higher off if former President Trump had been killed in final week’s tried assassination. That determine consists of 28% of Democrats who say that America would have been higher off if Trump had been assassinated. One other 24% of Democrats weren’t positive. Fewer than half (48%) of Democrats might deliver themselves to say that America wouldn’t be higher off if the opposing get together’s candidate for president had been assassinated. Scott Rasmussen, president of RMG Analysis, mentioned ‘It’s onerous to think about a better menace to democracy than expressing a need to have your political opponent murdered.’ Regardless of two assassination makes an attempt in two months, simply over half of all Democrats (51%) don’t see a necessity to extend Trump’s safety element. Amongst all voters, 62% assume Trump’s safety must be elevated and 32% disagree. Forty-nine % (49%) of Democrats assume it’s at the least considerably possible that Trump himself or the Trump marketing campaign was concerned with the assassination try, with 21% saying it was very possible. Fifty-two % (52%) of Republicans assume it’s at the least considerably possible that the Democratic Social gathering or the Harris marketing campaign was concerned, with 28% saying it’s very possible.” • Even should you transfer the decimal level one place to the appropriate (51% to five.1%) these numbers are nonetheless fairly alarming. The one which apprehensive me essentially the most is that this one: “Forty-nine % (49%) of Democrats assume it’s at the least considerably possible that Trump himself or the Trump marketing campaign was concerned with the assassination try, with 21% saying it was very possible.” that is pure CT (which is one thing solely Republicans are alleged to be weak to). I’ve by no means seen any proof of this in any respect, and I do attempt to preserve observe (solely the odd “will need to have”-style tweet).

“From Ukraine to Hawaii, odd habits of suspect in obvious Trump assassination try prompt ‘delusion of grandeur’” [CNN]. “‘For me, it’s a shock, as a result of I seen him as an idealistic, harmless, real particular person, with none murderous intuition,’ [Newsweek Romania journalist Remus Cernea], mentioned.” • However then there’s the machine gun conviction. This story is price studying in full, as a result of Routh’s character doesn’t change into much less puzzling. I believe the factor to attend for is the indictment; I wish to see how a lot planning went into the assassination try. (In the meantime, the story features a image of Routh’s fairly blue home in Hawaii. Arduous to consider anybody would wish to depart that…).

“Trump, Gutfeld joke about tried assassination: ‘How’s your golf recreation?’” [The Hill]. “‘Mr. T, how’s your golf recreation?’ the host requested throughout Wednesday evening’s version of his late-night comedy program on the cable channel. ‘Effectively, I haven’t been enthusiastic about it an excessive amount of recently. … I all the time mentioned golf was a really harmful recreation,’ Trump smirked [(!!!)], prompting laughter from the studio viewers. ‘It truly is, particularly in the event that they’re enjoying with you,’ Gutfeld quipped again, asking the previous president ‘if they’d instructed you that the shooter was there, would you might have tried to take him out along with your 3-wood?’ ‘I believe so. I believe so, if I knew,’ Trump replied. ‘Truly, the Secret Service did an important job. They noticed the barrel of a gun, large gun, and he got here out via bushes, and the way many individuals would see that? He actually was very distinctive to have completed it.’” • No matter else you might consider Trump, he has braveness (though braveness is a virture, it’s virtuous relying on the use to which it’s put. Does Kamala?

Lower than sixty days to go!

A number of polls post-debate, however as of this studying little change. To be truthful, it would take a while for sentiment to settle; and the profitable margins could at this level be so minute as to be undetectable. Nonetheless, the Democrats should be very puzzled to have digital unanimity throughout the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — it was a tidal wave, after the controversy — and but the election is a digital tie. How can this be? Maybe just a few extra Republicans, generals, or celebrities will flip the tide.

“Might there be a Kamala Harris landslide in November? The info scientist who appropriately referred to as the final election is betting sure” [Fortune]. Thomas Miller, a knowledge scientist at Northwestern College. “[Miller’s] wildly out-of-the-mainstream name is bound to shock pollsters, pundits and Fortune‘s readers alike. However Miller’s view deserves shut consideration for 2 fundamental causes: First, it’s based mostly on numbers-crunching that’s arguably much more scientific than the voter surveys virtually all the time cited to chart the competition’s trajectory, and second, he achieved pinpoint accuracy 4 years in the past…. Miller’s strategy vastly differs from essentially the most of political prognostications by relying not on polls, however the costs established by People wagering their very own {dollars} on the candidates they reckon are almost definitely to prevail. “Political betting websites are the very best at predicting the knowledge of the gang,” he instructed Fortune…. Miller’s markets-based evaluation posits that the folks betting their very own cash are proper in predicting that by the point the candidates left the stage on September 10, hundreds of thousands of voters more likely to again Donald Trump deserted the ex-President, beginning the shock waves that might trigger an avalanche for Harris that as of now, few see constructing.” • Possibly. Then once more, with seemingly each establishment gamed in Kamala’s favor, maybe the prediction markets are too? In spite of everything, there’s a phishing equilibrium concerned.

“Harris Had Stronger Debate, Polls Discover, however the Race Stays Deadlocked” [New York Times]. “Kamala Harris overwhelmingly impressed voters in her debate with Donald J. Trump, a brand new set of polls from The New York Instances, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena Faculty discovered, however she has failed to date to grab a decisive benefit within the presidential marketing campaign…. However even that was not sufficient to jostle a race that seems destined to change into a battle of inches this fall, after a summer season of tumult and upheaval.” Importantly: “The truth that Ms. Harris was stronger in Pennsylvania than she was nationally is shocking. It has been among the many most contested states since 2016 and has usually trended extra Republican than the nation has total. However in 2024, Democrats — first with Mr. Biden and now Ms. Harris — have confirmed relative power with white voters, and the Pennsylvania citizens is whiter than the nation total.”

“People favor Trump on immigration, assist mass deportation of unlawful immigrants, ballot finds” [FOX]. “A brand new ballot reveals a majority of People assist the mass deportation of migrants dwelling illegally in the US. The newest Scripps Information/Ipsos Ballot, launched Wednesday, discovered the vast majority of Republicans and Independents assist such a coverage, whereas solely 1 / 4 of Democrats agree.”

“Don’t let randomness make a idiot of you” [Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin]. “An election isn’t just an extremely vital story however a narrative that many individuals understandably really feel extremely emotional about. The extraordinarily partisan political local weather in the US makes all of this worse and allows folks to rationalize quite a lot of abusive habits. Polls and fashions change into a car for what psychologists name transference: mainly, folks displace all their anxieties in regards to the election onto the forecasts and the individuals who design them…. On Twitter specifically, there will be full context collapse. Folks deal with probabilistic predictions as deterministic ones, e.g. if Trump goes from a 48 % probability of profitable Wisconsin to a 52 % probability, you’ll get quite a lot of Nate Silver is asking Wisconsin for Trump!!! though the forecast expresses a excessive diploma of uncertainty and nothing within the mannequin has actually modified. And that’s on day. …. On November fifth, we’ll all get up with quite a lot of uncertainty about who will win. And we’d go to mattress with quite a lot of uncertainty, too: if current American elections are any information, the result might take a number of days to resolve……. So lead your greatest life, and have the serenity to just accept the belongings you can not change.” • Yep.

Kamala (D): “The Harris-Walz media technique: Cover from the press” [Axios]. “The Harris-Walz ticket is on tempo to do fewer interviews and press conferences than any main get together’s presidential pairing in trendy U.S. historical past. Vice President Harris’ staff is betting she and her working mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, can keep away from many robust interviews and nonetheless win as they run down the clock to Election Day. That technique comes at the same time as many citizens say they wish to study extra about Harris — and as her marketing campaign has mentioned she’s modified a lot of her previous liberal positions to extra centrist insurance policies. The beforehand press-friendly Walz has joined Harris in largely dodging the media whereas campaigning earlier than pleasant, enthusiastic crowds.” • That is the stupidest timeline; it’s completely potential that Kamala’s No-Cal marketing campaign, the place “pleasure,” memes, vibes, and placing lipstick on The Blob set up a permission construction wherein any voter — even Dick “I shot an outdated man within the face” Cheney can be ok with voting Democrat, will carry the day. Trump’s marketing campaign, in stark distinction, actually is all about coverage. You won’t like the coverage (immigration), or the justifications provided for that coverage (cats), however coverage it’s. Identical with the First Modification. Identical with Kennedy on making America wholesome.

Kamala (D): “, Biden Will Declare Credit score for Economic system’s Energy” [New York Times]. “President Biden is ready to declare on Thursday that the economic system has lastly reached a turning level he has lengthy sought. With value progress cooling and borrowing prices starting to fall, he’ll solid the financial second as vindication for his often-criticized administration of the restoration from the pandemic recession. However Mr. Biden will cease wanting ‘declaring victory’ over inflation in his speech to the Financial Membership of Washington, administration officers mentioned.” • I’m happy to see the Biden Administration taking a “entire of presidency” strategy (together with The Fed) to election 2024.

Kamala (D): “Teamsters skip presidential endorsement amid apparently robust member assist for Trump” [Politico]. “The highly effective labor union is deeply related to working class voters in battleground states who might be essential to the result of November’s election. It cited a scarcity of consensus amongst its million-plus members, and the non-endorsement is a large blow for Vice President Kamala Harris given the Biden administration’s unabashed union loyalty throughout his time period…. No endorsement gained out in a 14-3 vote, vp at-large John Palmer instructed POLITICO after the union’s board assembly.” • The West Coast chapter, nevertheless, endorsed Kamala.

Trump (R): “The Precise Electoral Map Is Three States” [Politico]. “There are actually solely three states that can resolve the presidential election: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia…. If Vice President Kamala Harris can’t carry Pennsylvania, her solely hope is on a Southern technique. Harris should win both Georgia or North Carolina. She has no different path to the White Home. The election might nicely be decided when polls shut within the jap time zone. (Effectively, sure, after the ballots are all counted.) This isn’t to say the opposite 4 battlegrounds — Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona — aren’t vital. If Harris loses Pennsylvania, which her aides acknowledge is a extremely difficult state, she’d nonetheless want to choose up one of many two Western states in addition to one of many two Southern states to win — as long as she carries Michigan and Wisconsin. But none of these different 4 battlegrounds are related if Trump first blocks her in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.” • Needs to be doable, no matter memes and vibes. FWIW, I believe Susie Wiles must up her recreation, and specifically work out how one can flip the assassination makes an attempt, plural. to her candidates benefit. The primary one, allow us to bear in mind, came about in Pennsylvania.

“Cut up consideration in battleground states: Voters concentrate on the economic system and native points” [Reckon]. “Because the presidential marketing campaign intensifies in its remaining weeks, standard knowledge would possibly recommend that voters in vital battleground states are solely targeted on the election. Nevertheless, readership information from main native information publications in all seven battleground states tells a unique story: whereas political information attracts curiosity, financial points are grabbing voters’ consideration most constantly. A working example is the recognition of a narrative about grocery store chain Aldi’s plan so as to add 13,000 jobs this vacation season, with wages as much as $23 per hour. This text was the most-read information story throughout a number of battlegrounds within the 24 hours following Tuesday’s presidential debate. The takeaway? Voters in these key states are inserting financial points on the forefront as they contemplate their choices.” • Fascinating proxy!

“R&D for lengthy COVID is collapsing” [Chemical & Engineering News]. The deck: “Private and non-private funding is missing, scrambling alternatives to develop therapies.” Which is why the very best “remedy” is to not catch it. Extra: “‘After we first went out to do that research in lengthy COVID, there was cash from . . . RECOVER,’ Purpose scientific officer Chris McAleer says, referring to Researching COVID to Improve Restoration (RECOVER), the Nationwide Institutes of Well being’s $1.7 billion initiative to fund initiatives investigating causes of, and potential therapies for, lengthy COVID. McAleer says Purpose tried to get RECOVER funds, ‘believing that we had a therapeutic for these people, and we get nothing.’ As an alternative of funding novel medicines like Ampligen, the NIH has directed most of its RECOVER assets to observational research designed to study extra in regards to the situation, not deal with it. Solely final yr did the company start to fund scientific trials for lengthy COVID therapies, and people examine the repurposing of permitted medicine. What RECOVER is just not doing is funding new compounds. RECOVER is the one federal funding mechanism geared toward lengthy COVID analysis. Different initiatives, just like the $5 billion Challenge NextGen and the $577 million Antiviral Drug Discovery (AViDD) Facilities for Pathogens of Pandemic Concern, put grant cash towards next-generation vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, and antivirals for COVID-19. They cease wanting testing these compounds as lengthy COVID therapies. Non-public funding is even more durable to come back by. Giant pharmaceutical corporations have principally stayed away from the situation.” • Arduous to consider that the NIH is an precise barrier to Lengthy Covid remedy, however that’s the way it appears to have performed out. The satirically named RECOVER appeared dangerous in 2023. Now the rotten aroma is beginning to get a bit thick.

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