As of August, incorporating newest capability utilization and manufacturing information, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face worth the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.
Determine 1: Manufacturing manufacturing (blue, left scale), implied employment from preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), mixture hours (inexperienced, left scale), and actual valued added (pink), all in logs, 2021M07=0, and capability utilization in manufacturing, in % (black, proper scale). Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA by way of FRED, NBER.Â
Word that 2023Q4 worth added was greater than in 2021Q4. Sadly, we don’t have information additional than 2024Q1 (these information will probably be reported by on 9/27).
The information in help of a slowdown in manufacturing comes from diffusion indices, such because the ISM manufacturing PMI.
Supply: TradingEconomics.com. Blue is S&P, grey is ISM.
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