Can we use nationwide employment to nowcast Wisconsin employment? This endeavor is considerably sophisticated by the pandemic. With DWD’s launch right this moment, we are able to consider the match of the mannequin.
Determine 1: Wisconsin NFP employment, August launch (daring blue), July (mild blue), nowcast based mostly on US NFP 2021M07-2024M06 (pink), +/- 1 std error bands. Supply: BLS, DWD, creator’s calculations.Â
Level estimate of the nowcast is 3044.1 thousand, [3039, 3049] is the 68% prediction interval, whereas the precise (preliminary) is 3047.3 thousand.
The nowcast is predicated on this single equation ECM:
The Wisconsin Dept of Income Financial Outlook forecast of August indicated 3038.1 thousand NFP employment for Q3 on common.
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