Why Do Prediction Markets Differ in Pricing the Election?

RealClearPolitics betting common, right this moment, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3.

Supply: RCP, accessed 9/22/2024, ~ 3pm CT.

PredictIt, the one platform in a position to function within the US, is excluded from the RCP common now (it wasn’t a pair weeks in the past), and has Harris-Trump at 58-45, up by 13 cents.

Supply: PredictIt, accessed 9/22/2024, ~ 3pm CT.

Clearly, not all markets are asking the identical query, and every platform has completely different constraints (betting limits, the place operable, and many others.). Nonetheless, this looks like a big hole (6 cents vs. 13 cents).

By the way in which, regardless of variations within the early days of the Harris marketing campaign, seemingly near-equivalent bets are registering related odds now: 58-45 Harris over Trump, 59-44 for Democrats over Republicans for White Home, 58-42 Harris is forty seventh President.