2:00PM Water Cooler 9/25/2024 | bare capitalism

Date:


Hen Track of the Day

Sage Thrasher, Sierra Valley–Marble Scorching Springs Rd., Plumas, California, United States. “Track together with mimicry. Hen singing from a fencepost at roadside.” Eight minutes so seize a cup of espresso

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In Case You Would possibly Miss…

  1. Pollsters and polling.
  2. Attending to know Kamala.
  3. Election Trump’s to lose: Is that what he’s doing?
  4. Boeing’s “absurd litany of self-inflicted crises” plus brutal Senate report on whistleblower stories.

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Search for the Helpers

“Lady, 79, fell whereas mountain climbing. A stranger carried her for hours on his again” [WaPo]. “[Ursula] Bannister arrived on the path round 11 a.m. and made her approach to the lookout. As she headed again down, she made a misstep, and her foot acquired caught on a gap within the floor. She fell ahead…. [Troy May and Layton Allen.] two younger males… came visiting to see what was occurring. After they noticed Bannister on the bottom in agony, they instantly made a proposal: They might carry Bannister to the underside of the path… Others pitched in as effectively: Shortly into the hike, Could’s boots had been giving him blisters. A person he didn’t know on the path noticed the scenario and gave Could his sneakers… ‘I used to be simply overwhelmed with gratitude that these individuals actually got here out of the woods to assist me and so they had been completely unselfish and type,’ [Bannister] stated.” • I left a number of element out, all of it encouraging.

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My e mail handle is down by the plant; please ship examples of there (“Helpers” within the topic line). In our more and more determined and fragile neoliberal society, on a regular basis regular incidents and tales of “the communism of on a regular basis life” are what I’m in search of (and never, say, the Pink Cross in Hawaii, and even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Makes an attempt (Plural)

“Aileen Cannon set to supervise obvious Trump assassination try case in Florida” [Politico]. “U.S. District Choose Aileen Cannon — a Trump appointee — was randomly assigned the tried assassination case Tuesday after a grand jury in Miami returned a five-count indictment towards Ryan Routh in reference to the Sept. 15 incident on the Trump Worldwide Golf Membership in West Palm Seashore, Fla.” • Life’s little ironies!

2024

Lower than fifty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

As soon as once more, the Democrats have to be very puzzled to have digital unanimity throughout the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — little question there might be one other liberalgasm after Oprah — and but the election is a digital tie. How can this be? Maybe just a few extra Republicans, generals, or celebrities will flip the tide.

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“Key issues to learn about U.S. election polling in 2024” [Pew Research]. “Adjusting on extra variables produces extra correct outcomes, in keeping with Heart research in 2016 and 2018. Numerous pollsters have taken this lesson to coronary heart. For instance, current high-quality polls by Gallup and The New York Occasions/Siena Faculty adjusted on eight and 12 variables, respectively. Our personal polls sometimes alter on 12 variables. In an ideal world, it wouldn’t be essential to have that a lot intervention by the pollster. However the actual world of survey analysis just isn’t excellent.” And: “Preelection polls face one essential problem that routine opinion polls don’t: figuring out who of the individuals surveyed will really forged a poll. Roughly a 3rd of eligible Individuals don’t vote in presidential elections, regardless of the large consideration paid to those contests. Figuring out who will abstain is troublesome as a result of individuals can’t completely predict their future habits – and since many individuals really feel social strain to say they’ll vote even when it’s unlikely. Nobody is aware of the profile of voters forward of Election Day. We are able to’t know for positive whether or not younger individuals will end up in larger numbers than typical, or whether or not key racial or ethnic teams will accomplish that. This implies pollsters are left to make educated guesses about turnout, usually utilizing a mixture of historic information and present measures of voting enthusiasm. That is very totally different from routine opinion polls, which largely don’t ask about individuals’s future intentions.” And at last: “When main information breaks, a ballot’s timing can matter. Public opinion on most points is remarkably secure, so that you don’t essentially want a current ballot about a difficulty to get a way of what individuals give it some thought. However dramatic occasions can and do change public opinion.” • Which is why “early voting” in any type, together with mail-in ballots, is morally incorrect in a democracy.

“Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “To be clear, we do not know whether or not the polls might be biased persistently someway in 2024. Possibly Trump might be understated once more: in that case, he’s nearly actually going to win the election given how shut the polls at the moment are. Possibly Harris might be understated: in that case, she is in an incredible place to win on condition that she seems to already lead in sufficient states to win 270 electoral votes, albeit barely. Or there is perhaps little bias both means, or inconsistent bias relying on the state, during which case this election might be very laborious to confidently predict primarily based on the present numbers. Polling error just isn’t essentially constant from 12 months to 12 months—whereas polls understated Trump in 2016 and 2020, the longer-term historical past of polling errors is a little more combined, per this beneficial chart from the Pew Analysis Heart primarily based on American Affiliation for Public Opinion Analysis information. . For one factor, different indicators do probably not recommend that we’re within the midst of an electoral setting that’s a lot stronger for Republicans than the previous two elections (these indicators embrace particular elections in 2023 and 2024 and the current Washington state top-two main). Whereas Democrats have now nominated three totally different opponents towards Donald Trump, Trump himself might be on the poll for a 3rd straight time. . The third installment of the Trump trilogy will doubtless look a good quantity like the primary two installments versus being dramatically totally different; that is why we’ve lengthy anticipated a detailed and aggressive election, with solely the previous few weeks of Joe Biden’s candidacy actually making us critically take into account the potential of Trump doing considerably higher than his earlier presidential runs. The shut polls recommend a detailed election: That appears life like.”

“Polling Whiplash” [Robert Kuttner, The American Prospect]. “[The indispensable Michael Podhorzer] astutely factors out that every one polling is ‘opinion journalism.’ Why? As a result of pollsters make assumptions about who’s a possible voter and methods to weigh or overweigh totally different demographic teams. ‘The ‘opinions’ aren’t about points or ideology, however about methodological approaches,’ Podhorzer writes.”

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Kamala (D): Kamala’s mom carrying the sari typical of Black girls of that era:

(To anybody new: I’ve no objection to Kamala’s id, no matter it could be. I do object to Kamala morphing her perceived id to fulfill the wants of the political marketing campaign du jour.)

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris Wants To Get Out Extra” [Ross Barkan, Persuasions]. “Nonetheless lacking from Harris is any form of formal press convention or the common tv appearances that J.D. Vance, Trump’s working mate, nonetheless makes. She has not allowed for an prolonged interview with any newspaper or journal reporter, both. If she’s visited an area Philadelphia TV station, she hasn’t sat down with the Philadelphia Inquirer, Atlanta Journal-Structure, or any main print-based group in an important swing state. It goes with out saying she received’t topic herself to a grilling from the New York Occasions editorial board. Oddly, she has even dodged pleasant retailers like MSNBC and pundits like Ezra Klein, who would ask probing questions however is essentially sympathetic to her venture…. A part of the explanation the election continues to be shut is that too many Individuals really feel they know too little about Harris. In a current New York Occasions/Siena ballot that exposed a dip in her standing because the sugar excessive of the Democratic conference, 28 p.c of doubtless voters stated they felt they wanted to know extra about Harris, whereas solely 9 p.c stated they wanted to know extra about Trump. ‘I don’t know what Kamala’s plans are,’ Daybreak Conley, a 48-year-old small-business proprietor and undecided voter in Knoxville, Tenn. advised the Occasions. ‘It’s form of laborious to decide if you don’t know what the opposite social gathering’s platform goes to be.’.. Actually, Harris needs to be all over the place. The Sunday morning speak exhibits, the newspaper sitdowns, and formal press conferences are a begin. Podcasts, ethnic media, different media, and regional retailers needs to be added to the combination. If she doesn’t crave the mass heterodox viewers of a Joe Rogan, she will be able to spend prolonged time with the aforementioned Klein or Alex Cooper, who has change into one thing of the younger millenial/Gen Z Howard Stern.” • For my part, individuals have no idea Harris as a result of there’s no person there to be recognized.

Kamala (D): Get out extra, however not like this:

For the reason that look is for an interview, I can’t actually fault Kamala’s marketing campaign for requiring invites, however perhaps a public rally on-campus too?

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Trump (R): “2024 Election Setting Favorable to GOP” [Gallup]. The lead: “Almost all Gallup measures which have proven some relationship to previous presidential election outcomes or that talk to present perceptions of the 2 main events favor the Republican Get together over the Democratic Get together. Chief amongst these are Republican benefits in U.S. adults’ social gathering identification and leanings, the assumption that the GOP slightly than the Democratic Get together is best in a position to deal with a very powerful drawback dealing with the nation, Individuals’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and detrimental evaluations of the financial system with a Democratic administration in workplace.” • Useful chart:

Trump (R): “‘He needs to be doing higher’: Even some Trump allies see him veering off track” [Politico]. “Donald Trump was assembly privately in mid-September with certainly one of his oldest associates, Steve Wynn, when the on line casino mogul and Republican mega-donor delivered the previous president a blunt warning: You’re off message, and it isn’t serving to…. To drive dwelling his level, Wynn confirmed Trump polling and instructed the previous president could be higher off specializing in coverage points the place Republicans see his opponent, Kamala Harris, as susceptible, in keeping with two individuals briefed on the assembly and granted anonymity to explain it. The assembly underscored a key level of stress contained in the Trump marketing campaign. Whereas polls present the race is extremely shut, a few of Trump’s allies are involved that his impulses and coarse strategy to campaigning are undermining him towards Harris, a rival who has proved far stronger than his earlier opponent, Joe Biden. In interviews, greater than a dozen Trump allies described the previous president as reaching a crossroads — confronted with the selection of constant with the missteps which have overtaken the previous a number of weeks of his marketing campaign or embracing a extra calculated strategy geared toward interesting to a small subset of undecided voters who’re prone to sway the end result of the election. In current weeks, he has introduced into his fold destabilizing forces like social media provocateur Laura Loomer and his controversial former marketing campaign supervisor Corey Lewandowski, plugged commemorative Trump cash, and asserted that if he loses, Jews could be partly accountable. ‘It’s not that he’s going backwards,’ stated one Trump ally granted anonymity to talk freely. ‘However he needs to be doing higher.’” • False dichotomy, to me. It’s not (media-driven) mis-steps vs. calculated strategy; it’s populist vs. non-populist. If Trump provides the populist strategy the oomph solely he can provide, he wins (and sure, deep six Laura Loomer and the effing cats instantly. Work the grill at MacDonalds. I imply, does anyone suppose these Undecideds are PMC?).

Trump (R): “Haitian group in Springfield, Ohio, information citizen felony fees towards Trump and Vance” [Associated Press]. “The chief of a nonprofit representing the Haitian group invoked a private-citizen proper to file fees Tuesday towards former President Donald Trump and his working mate, JD Vance, over the chaos and threats skilled by Springfield, Ohio, since Trump first unfold false claims about authorized immigrants there throughout a presidential debate. The Haitian Bridge Alliance made the transfer after inaction by the native prosecutor, stated their legal professional, Subodh Chandra of the Cleveland-based Chandra Legislation Agency. Expenses introduced by personal residents are uncommon, however not unprecedented, in Ohio…. State regulation requires a listening to to happen earlier than the affidavit can transfer ahead. As of Tuesday afternoon, none had been scheduled. Trump and Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio, are charged with disrupting public companies, making false alarms, telecommunications harassment, aggravated menacing and complicity. The submitting asks the Clark County Municipal Court docket to affirm that there’s possible trigger and subject arrest warrants towards Trump and Vance.”

Trump (R): “Donald Trump Has a Plan to Make America’s Youngsters Wholesome Once more. It’s a Good One” [Robert Redfield, Newsweek]. “In 2019, the Trump Administration set a course to deal with power illness, funding earlier interventions to curb the rising disaster. 5 years later, this subject is strictly the place it must be: on the middle of the presidential debate, now in a novel partnership. To heal our youngsters, a president should see the potential and lead our nation to behave. After greater than 40 years within the public well being area, it would shock a few of my colleagues to know I feel President Trump selected the fitting man for the job: Robert Kennedy, Jr…. Kennedy is correct: All three of the principal well being companies endure from company seize. A big portion of the FDA’s price range is offered by pharmaceutical corporations. NIH is cozy with biomedical and pharmaceutical corporations and its scientists are allowed to gather royalties on medication NIH licenses to pharma. And because the former director of the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC), I do know the company may be influenced by particular curiosity teams. Nevertheless it doesn’t cease within the well being companies: the U.S. Division of Agriculture is a captive of business, too. Created to assist the household farmer and to make sure a healthful meals provide, immediately the company usually favors massive companies over the pursuits of small farmers and the general public’s well being. To remedy our youngsters, we should reevaluate our meals decisions and the underlying practices of the agricultural sector. We should prioritize healthful and nutritious meals.” • A populist alternative right here, too.

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Kennedy (I): Asking for my vote once more:


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NY: “Trump units his sights on deep-blue New York” [The Hill]. “Whereas Trump’s hopes of flipping New York appear lofty, Republicans level to different underlying causes for his visits there, specifically to spice up 4 Home Republicans within the state whose outcomes might determine which social gathering controls the Home: Reps. Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams.” • “Lofty” doesn’t start to explain it.

PA: “Pennsylvania ballot reveals tight presidential race, inflation a key concern” [The Hill]. “Vice President Harris narrowly leads former President Trump within the battleground state of Pennsylvania, in keeping with a brand new ballot launched by Monmouth College Wednesday. Information confirmed that 40 p.c of voters within the Keystone State stated they’ll undoubtedly vote for Harris, in comparison with 38 p.c who stated the identical of Trump. Eight p.c stated they might most likely vote for the vice chairman, whereas seven p.c stated they might most likely vote for the previous president, in keeping with the ballot.”

PA: “In Pennsylvania tour, Trump hits all the fitting locations and messages” [Washington Examiner]. “The go to to Kittanning was the second of three stops the previous president made throughout his go to to Western Pennsylvania on Monday. He traversed over 100 miles all through Allegheny, Armstrong, Indiana, and Westmoreland counties. Meandering by largely again roads, all alongside the best way, Trump’s motorcade was greeted by hundreds of individuals gathering in entrance of their small cities, suburban bed room enclaves, or standing in entrance of their farms with their tractors or cows, waving Horrible Towels, makeshift Trump indicators, or official Trump-Vance flags. And even alongside the jersey obstacles of the halted visitors on the Pennsylvania Turnpike, individuals stood on high of their vehicles or in entrance of them to wave.” • I’d say turnout received’t be an issue.

PA: Oopsie:

With bit extra time, I’d authenticate the display screen dumps. However…

Our Famously Free Press

“George Soros taking ‘shortcut’ to purchase 200 US radio stations, FCC commissioner says” [NBC Montana]. “The transaction, which was reported by The Nationwide Desk in February, would break a rule stopping greater than 25% overseas possession of U.S. radio stations, [Commissioner Brendan Carr of theFederal Communications Commission] alleges. Regardless of this, Carr claimed the company was expediting its assessment course of. ‘What we normally do is require individuals to file a petition with us, carry within the Nationwide Safety Company to assessment the overseas possession—it’s most likely no huge deal right here—however we assessment that overseas possession after which we vote,’ Carr stated. ‘Right here, they’re attempting to do one thing that’s by no means been completed earlier than at a fee degree.’” • Curious timing.

Realignment and Legitimacy

Firesign Theatre as scorching as ever:

Hat tip to alert reader justme.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

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Sequelae: Covid

“Put up-hospitalisation COVID-19 cognitive deficits at one 12 months are international and related to elevated mind harm markers and gray matter quantity discount” (manuscript) [Nature]. From the Summary: “We report the one-year cognitive, serum biomarker, and neuroimaging findings from a potential, nationwide examine of cognition in 351 COVID-19 sufferers who had required hospitalisation, in comparison with 2,927 normative matched controls. Cognitive deficits had been international and related to elevated mind harm markers, and diminished anterior cingulate cortex quantity one 12 months after COVID-19. The severity of the preliminary infective insult, post-acute psychiatric signs, and a historical past of encephalopathy had been related to biggest deficits. There was sturdy concordance between subjective and goal cognitive deficits. Longitudinal follow-up in 106 sufferers demonstrated a development towards restoration. Collectively, these findings help the speculation that mind harm in reasonable to extreme COVID-19 could also be immune-mediated, and will information the event of therapeutic methods.”

“Lengthy COVID and related outcomes following COVID-19 reinfections: Insights from an Worldwide Affected person-Led Survey” (preprint) [Research Square]. ” We developed and disseminated internationally a patient-centered on-line survey analyzing the outcomes of COVID-19 reinfections. The survey integrated validated devices on fatigue, post-exertional malaise, and bodily perform with questions on COVID-19 an infection historical past, vaccination, and Lengthy COVID signs, together with signs associated to immune and reproductive well being. We examined whether or not the chance of Lengthy COVID and associated outcomes will increase with COVID-19 an infection numbers. Outcomes: Right here we present that reinfections improve the chance of reporting Lengthy COVID, which elevated 2.1-fold from one to 2 infections. Amongst 3,382 contributors, 22% reported by no means having had COVID-19, 42% skilled it as soon as, and 35% reported reinfections. Relative to those that didn’t report infections or skilled COVID-19 as soon as, reinfections had been related to elevated chance of extreme fatigue, post-exertional malaise, decreased bodily perform, poorer immune well being, symptom exacerbation earlier than menstruation, and a number of different Lengthy COVID signs. Whereas vaccinations and boosters previous to an infection are related to decrease chance of Lengthy COVID, reinfections diminish their protecting impact. The likelihood of reporting Lengthy COVID remission is usually low (11.5%-6.5%).” • Yikes.

Morbidity and Mortality

Only a flu:

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TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

Wastewater

This week[1] CDC September 16

Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):

Variants [3] CDC September 14 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 14

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, information September 23:

Nationwide [6] CDC August 31:

Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens September 23: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7:

Vacationers Information
Positivity[9] CDC September 2: Variants[10] CDC September 2:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 14: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 14:

LEGEND

1) for charts new immediately; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with sizzling spots annotated. Retains spreading. NOTE The date appears to be incorrect, however the variety of websites has modified so that is new.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* highly regarded. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, however price noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Undoubtedly down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what’s, in proportion phrases, a major improve.

[7] (Walgreens) Large drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Down. These sh*theads at CDC have modified the chart in order that it doesn’t even run again to 1/21/23, because it used to, however now begins 1/1/24. There’s additionally no approach to alter the time vary. CDC actually doesn’t need you to have the ability to take a historic view of the pandemic, or evaluate one surge to a different. In an any case, that’s why the form of the curve has modified.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, however positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There are not any statistics of curiosity immediately.

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Manufacturing: “Boeing provides placing Machinists union extra time to vote on newest supply” [Seattle Times]. “Boeing Co. backed down from a Friday night time deadline for placing staff to approve its newest contract supply after union leaders refused to schedule a vote…. The sparring has injected new stress into the talks at a time when the cash-strapped plane-maker can’t afford an extended, drawn-out strike. Boeing’s ways have additionally puzzled some longtime observers of the planemaker’s labor relations. ‘It doesn’t make any sense,’ Leon Grunberg, an instructional who’s tracked Boeing labor relations for a quarter-century. ‘I don’t know if it’s a misstep from the CEO or individuals additional down.’… Boeing on Tuesday stated that it had provided the union extra time and ‘logistical help’ for a vote. It eliminated the Sept. 27 deadline, with out imposing any new timeframe for acceptance of the supply. ‘This strike is affecting our group and our communities, and we consider our staff ought to have the chance to vote on our supply that makes important enhancements in wages and advantages,’ Boeing stated in an emailed assertion. Union officers have stated they wouldn’t schedule a vote on the corporate’s newest proposal, describing it as unrealistic and disrespectful in a fiery assertion posted late Monday.” • Our “group.”

Manufacturing: “Hanging Boeing staff would love the corporate to cease negotiating in public” [Quartz]. “‘Our members stand sturdy, and we stay able to proceed mediated or direct negotiations with Boeing,’ [IAM] stated in an replace to members on Tuesday. ‘This has been made clear to each the corporate and our membership. The one approach to resolve this strike is thru negotiations, and relaxation assured, your Union won’t cut price by the media.’”

Manufacturing: “One other unforced error by Boeing is souring the brand new boss’ good vibes” [CNN]. “There’s an outdated saying for labor relations, says Artwork Wheaton, director of labor research at Cornell College’s Faculty of Industrial and Labor Relations: ‘You by no means wish to negotiate within the press.’ ‘The bargaining group is accountable for negotiating with administration,’ Wheaton stated. ‘And what Boeing did is it say, ‘yeah, I don’t care.’ … They only despatched it out to all people.’ He added: ‘I don’t know what their recreation plan is. I feel they had been simply not very vivid on how they did that.’ It’s additionally not clear what function Ortberg performed within the determination to take the supply on to union members and the media. Nevertheless it’s a transparent departure from the diplomatic strategy the CEO had signaled early on.

‘Everyone thinks unions strike over cash,’ Wheaton notes. However usually, it’s additionally about respect. ‘Clearly Boeing didn’t respect the union on this setup.’ Ortberg got here into the highest job with an enormous benefit: His predecessors had been so brazenly hostile towards labor, even small gestures appeared to purchase him some credibility. It’s not too late, in keeping with Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at aerospace consulting agency AeroDynamic Advisory, who advised me he’s ‘nonetheless hopeful’ Ortberg can proper Boeing’s course, even with . ‘Diplomacy issues in conditions like this,’ Aboulafia stated, including: ‘It’s laborious to inform what’s Ortberg’s errors … and what’s simply Boeing institutional vanity.’” • Could possibly be each!

Manufacturing: “Boeing Employees Felt Schedule Stress Even After Midair Blowout” [Bloomberg]. “Based on the survey performed with about 2,100 Boeing staff in Could — 4 months after a fuselage panel blew off a 737 Max plane shortly after takeoff — lower than half of frontline manufacturing personnel acknowledged that schedule pressures didn’t trigger their group to decrease requirements. The revelation exhibits that staff continued to really feel strain to chop corners even after Boeing’s marketing campaign to overtake its security tradition was effectively underway.”

Manufacturing: “Preliminary Data from the Subcommittee’s Inquiry into Boeing’s Security and High quality Practices” (PDF) [United States Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations]. “Whistleblower stories spanning greater than a decade increase questions on Boeing’s skill to well timed supply and monitor plane elements and make sure that broken or insufficient elements (‘nonconforming elements’) aren’t utilized in plane manufacturing. The monitoring and disposition of plane elements that don’t conform to their high quality or design specs is closely regulated, and felony penalties apply to figuring out or intentional falsification, concealment, or materially fraudulent misrepresentation in reference to data documenting the disposition of plane elements.3 Plane producers are required to keep up a written high quality system that features “[p]rocedures to make sure that solely merchandise or articles that conform to their authorised design are put in on a type-certificated product…. In Could 2024, Sam Mohawk, a present [i.e., still alive] Boeing High quality Assurance investigator on the MRSA in Renton, Washington, knowledgeable the Subcommittee that he has witnessed systemic disregard for documentation and accountability of nonconforming elements at Boeing’s Renton facility, the place the 737 MAX is manufactured. On June 11, 2024, Mr. Mohawk filed a declare with the Occupational Security and Well being Administration (‘OSHA’), which is hooked up as Attachment 1. This criticism has not been beforehand launched publicly. Mr. Mohawk’s present function at MRSA contains dealing with nonconforming elements, work that he alleges grew to become considerably extra advanced and demanding following the resumption of 737 MAX manufacturing when the FAA licensed the plane to return to service following two crashes in 2018 and 2019. Mr. Mohawk alleges that ‘[c]ompared to pre-grounding, MRSA was experiencing a 300% improve [of nonconformance reports]’ and that “the 737 program was shedding tons of of non-conforming elements.’ .” • Yikes!

Tech: Cheeky!

Power: “Cometh The Hour” [Doomberg]. This paragraph caught my eye: “A rock-solid adage of enterprise investing is that every one the offers are undersubscribed aside from those which might be oversubscribed. As such, a good-looking dwelling may be made by merely slipstreaming behind time period sheets negotiated by others when you realize that everyone else is aware of that the underlying startup will quickly increase once more at the next valuation. One needn’t perceive monetary fashions, know-how developments, and even the language embedded within the paperwork signed. Get your self invited into offers that others are desperate to fund, and profitable returns are positive to comply with.”

Transport: On the upcoming Longshoreman’s strike:

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Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 67 Greed (earlier shut: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 60 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 25 at 1:55:41 PM ET.

Permaculture

Kill the garden:

Class Warfare

“Union accuses Waffle Home of power wage theft” [Restaurant Dive]. “The Union of Southern Service Employees alleges Waffle Home persistently underpaid staff by illegally claiming a tip credit score on ineligible work. The union filed a wage and hours criticism with the U.S. Division of Labor on Thursday, and requested the DOL take away Waffle Home’s skill to take a tip credit score. The united states, an affiliate of Service Staff Worldwide Union, primarily based the criticism on interviews with greater than 20 staff, and alleged the corporate engaged in different types of wage theft. The Strategic Organizing Heart, a labor federation together with SEIU, launched a survey of greater than 400 Waffle Home staff that, in keeping with a press launch, discovered 90% of surveyed staff skilled one type of wage theft within the final 12 months. Waffle Home didn’t reply to a request for touch upon USSW’s allegations.”

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“Diddy ‘isn’t consuming in jail fearing he’ll be poisoned’ amid claims he saved ‘Epstein-style tapes of Freak Off events’” [The Sun]. “The disgraced rapper is sharing a cell in a New York jail with crypto fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried after his arrest final week.” • Birds of a feather?

“Diddy’s prediction about his wild events from 25 years in the past resurfaces after intercourse trafficking arrest” [Daily Mail]. “The rapper advised Leisure Tonight that he felt sooner or later he could be arrested for his ‘loopy events.’ His wild fetes – which aren’t to be confused together with his lurid Freak Offs – had been attended by stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lopez, Sarah Jessica Parker in addition to Kim and Khloe Kardashian. ‘You’re gonna hear about my events,’ stated the 54-year-old rap mogul as he referred to his star-studded bashes. ‘They’re gonna be shutting them down. They’re gonna most likely be arresting me, doing all forms of loopy issues simply ’trigger we wanna have time,’ Combs added.” • These “fetes” are the “White Events” of the 90s (everybody wears white)–

“Inside Diddy’s debauched star-studded White Events the place medication had been snorted off our bodies, topless girls cavorted within the pool and little youngsters had been advised ‘sooner or later y’all gonna wish to come” [Daily Mail]. “However again within the day, earlier than he stood accused of working a ‘felony enterprise’ and was deemed a menace to society and justice, celebrities clamoured for an invitation to Diddy’s era-defining White Events held at his East Hampton dwelling between 1998 and 2009…. Based on former music business insider Tom Swoope, who has recounted his personal reminiscences of ‘surviving’ Diddy’s White Events on his YouTube channel, ‘First Off In My Opinion: Story Time’, the events had been separated into ‘tiers’ of entry. There was ‘common admission’ then a sequence of ‘tiers’ ending with entrance to the internal sanctum the place the ‘actual’ partying went on. This allegedly included sexually humiliating female and male friends on the promise of file offers or cash.” • These “tiers” are fascinating. There’s a rumor floating round that the Obamas attended a Diddy social gathering; I’m undecided whether or not a fete or a White Get together. Assuming each forms of social gathering had been structured alongside the identical strains, I feel it’s very unlikely the canny Obamas would have gone wherever close to the internal sanctum. On the similar time, it’s unlikely that it wasn’t completely apparent what was occurring, precisely in the identical means that Epstein bringing younger girls to therapeutic massage his again at MIT conferences was completely apparent.

“On The Telephone Dwell From Jail”:

Information of the Wired

“How We Type the World: Gregory Murphy on the Psychology of Classes” [The MIT Press Reader]. “We put an terrible lot of effort into attempting to determine and persuade others of simply what sort of individual somebody is, what sort of motion one thing was, and even what sort of object one thing is. We regularly really feel that after we decide the factor’s class, then all questions might be answered about it: The individual is certified or unqualified; it’s the fitting factor to do or the incorrect factor; the item have to be made out of wooden. However division into classes is usually arbitrary — not utterly, however in some respects. And each class is a simplification to a point; it throws away details about the factor. In case you name me an instructional, that’s little question true, however that doesn’t embrace a number of different details about me, nor do I correspond precisely to your stereotype of an instructional. (OK, I really do, however a number of lecturers don’t.) There are a selection of various methods to make classes, and so they don’t all the time agree with each other. In some unspecified time in the future, now we have to make a principled determination about what the class is and why that’s the easiest way to consider it, as a result of the world isn’t pre-divided into good classes that we merely have to note.” • Hmm.

* * *

Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From ST:

ST writes: “Sort of an ‘anti-plantidote,’ however nonetheless a slightly placing wanting tree. Most likely a western hemlock. Don’t concern the reaper, I suppose.” No matter its species, that tree seems to be a little bit droopy.

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism web site. In case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In case you hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on methods to ship a verify. Thanks!

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