2:00PM Water Cooler 10/3/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Extraordinarily affected person readers, I’m afraid brunch obtained completely uncontrolled. So that is fairly skeletal, though I’ll add in as a lot as I can, as quick as I can! Within the meantime, discuss amongst yourselves! –lambert

Fowl Tune of the Day

Blue Mockingbird, alongside the canal, Oaxaca, MX (17,2, -96,751), Etla, Oaxaca, Mexico.

In Case You May Miss…

1. Trump and the Jack Smith temporary.
2. Boeing and Longshoremen strikes.
3. UCLA instruments up.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Assassination Makes an attempt (Plural)

“Take him out”?!?

NEW: Crowd begins clapping after ‘The View’ co-host Sunny Hostin seems to recommend that Melania Trump needs to ok*ll Donald Trump.

Hostin says Melania needs to “take [Trump] out” as a result of she “hates” him.

Hostin: “I feel she hates him. So we will all agree on that. That is a… pic.twitter.com/99p2xokU8P

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 3, 2024

See Stoller in 2017, “On Mocking Dying Working Class White Individuals.” Liberal Democrats have been wishing dying on their political enemies for a while. Now they yuk it up on daytime tv.

2024

Lower than forty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t flip the tide both. Regardless of the micturition and lamentation (very a lot together with my very own) concerning the Trump marketing campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Surroundings Favorable to GOP” on the problems) do word the regular deterioration in Kamala’s place within the (aggregated) prime battlegrounds. (After all, we on the skin would possibly as effectively be inspecting the entrails of birds once we attempt to predict what is going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly would possibly as effectively be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher knowledge, and have the state of affairs as beneath management as it may be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

“Battleground States Wrap-Up: Race Stays Successfully Tied” [RealClearPolling]. “The newest spherical of swing state polling signifies that neither Trump nor Harris has made vital positive factors within the swing states. Within the RealClearPolitics Common of the High Battleground States, the race is once more a dead-even tie, that means any small adjustments within the race over the subsequent month might determine who wins the presidency. If these RCP Averages maintain till Election Day, the race will probably be extremely shut. Because the RCP No Toss-Up Map reveals, if the election have been determined by the present averages, Trump would win with 281-257 electoral votes. Nonetheless, the end result hinges on Pennsylvania, the place Trump leads by simply 0.1 factors, leaving the election a toss-up with a little bit over a month to go till Election Day.” • Then once more–

If I flip all of the leans Pink or Blue at 270toWin, however give Harris North Carolina (primarily based on Helene miserable Republican turnout in Western North Carolina (“Occasions, pricey boy. Occasions”)), Harris wins, making — to my dismay — Pennsylvania irrelevant:

(Then once more, if Michigan goes pink, and Trump wins Pennsylvania, Trump wins.)

“Buyers flip to volatility trades to revenue from tight US election” [Financial Times]. “[T]he tight race means buying and selling volatility is seen as a safer wager than making an attempt to guess which shares or sectors will do effectively from a victory for former president Donald Trump or vice-president Kamala Harris. ‘Our base case continues to be that that is mainly a toss-up, and most shoppers have coalesced across the similar view,’ mentioned Stuart Kaiser, head of US fairness buying and selling technique at Citi. ‘For those who discuss to a shopper who thinks it’s 60-40 in favour of Trump, you may discuss proudly owning financial institution shares. For those who assume Kamala is extra more likely to win, buying and selling a basket is sensible,’ he added. ‘However for those who assume it’s 50-50, will probably be very exhausting to commerce directionally, it’s extra of a vol commerce.’ Buying and selling volatility usually requires buyers to make use of extra difficult derivatives trades, resulting in a variety of complicated methods with names similar to ‘straddles’ and ‘collars’ that contain shopping for and promoting a number of derivatives tied to particular person shares or an index such because the S&P 500.”

“October surprises are piling up, however a toss-up race appears impervious to shocks” [CNN]. “The White Home is grappling with three challenges that might threaten the vp’s hopes and provide a gap to the Republican nominee’s narrative of Biden-era negligence. A month earlier than Election Day, the US faces the grave chance of being dragged right into a Center East conflagration; a port employees’ strike might hurt inflation-weary shoppers; and political strain is rising within the fallout of Hurricane Helene. Trump, in the meantime, was hit on Wednesday by the unsealing of a 165-page doc wherein particular counsel Jack Smith provides the fullest image of his case within the federal 2020 election interference case. The ex-president has pleaded not responsible, however the submitting re-injected his try to steal the final election into the frantic endgame of a marketing campaign partially formed by Democrats’ claims he poses an existential menace to American democracy. Every state of affairs highlights potential vulnerabilities for each candidates as voters make up their minds. The trio of exams going through Harris comes with potential financial, political and humanitarian penalties if the administration errs. And the brand new scrutiny of Trump’s conduct after the 2020 election might trigger some voters to once more query his health for the Oval Workplace.”

* * *

Kamala (D): “Opinion: Vance is correct. Harris and Walz are a menace to Individuals’ free speech” [Jonathan Turley, USA Today]. On “fireplace in a croweded theatre: “[Walz] cited a case wherein socialists Charles Schenck and Elizabeth Baer have been arrested and convicted of violating the Espionage Act of 1917. Their ‘crime’ was to cross out flyers in opposition to the navy draft throughout World Conflict I. Schenck and Baer referred to as on their fellow residents to not ‘undergo intimidation’ and to ‘assert your rights.’ They argued, ‘If you don’t assert and assist your rights, you might be serving to to disclaim or disparage rights which it’s the solemn responsibility of all residents and residents of america to retain.’ In addition they described the navy draft as ‘involuntary servitude.’ Holmes used his ‘fireplace in a theater’; line to justify the abusive conviction and incarceration. On the Home listening to, after I was making an attempt to clarify that the justice later walked away from the road and Schenck was successfully overturned in 1969 in Brandenburg v. Ohio, [Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y.] minimize me off and mentioned, ‘We don’t want a regulation class right here.’ Within the vice presidential debate, Walz confirmed that he and different Democratic leaders most definitely do want a category in First Modification regulation.”

Kamala (D): “VP Kamala Harris proclaims 100% reimbursement of native Helene response prices throughout remarks in Augusta” [WABE]. “Vice President Kamala Harris introduced Wednesday that President Joe Biden has authorized Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s request for 100% reimbursement of native prices of responding to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene throughout remarks in Augusta, Georgia. Harris mentioned the federal reimbursement will cowl prices for companies like meals, water and shelter supplied by native governments, particles elimination and emergency companies.” • In the meantime–

Kamala (D):

NEW: Kamala Harris kindly affords $750 to Individuals who’ve misplaced their houses because of flooding from Hurricane Helene.

The event comes because the Biden administration is now bragging about offering 67 Starlink satellites to impacted communities.

For reference, america… pic.twitter.com/sTM6iix7G9

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 2, 2024

However:

$750 ought to deal with it… pic.twitter.com/qaOlpWIpmp

— @amuse (@amuse) October 3, 2024

And:

Pricey Ukraine, for those who might ship just a few billion {dollars} to the Hurricane Helene victims, that might be nice! pic.twitter.com/d4i4IS15U4

— dianafrancisco (@dianafr55045805) October 3, 2024

I’m not sure that $750 would be the total fee. However, directionally that is appropriate: The empire issues orders of magnitude extra to our ruling class than the home inhabitants (although is in no way the best way a MAGA voter would categorical the matter). On the brilliant facet, I can put the $750 in opposition to the $600 Biden nonetheless owes me, so I come out forward!

Kamala (D): “Tim Walz’s Lengthy Sport Will Pay Off” [The Nation]. “The basic instance of a slow-fuse debate second that ended up having an influence is Gerald Ford’s well-known gaffe in his 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter. Keeping off critiques that his international coverage was detached to the oppression of the USSR, Ford declared, “I don’t consider that the Poles take into account themselves dominated by the Soviet Union.” Ford’s level was a delicate one: that even beneath Soviet rule, Poles had a spirit of resistance. However his wording made it sound like he was flippantly disregarding Soviet imperial domination of Jap Europe…. Over the subsequent few days, the total import of Ford’s phrases started to sink in, particularly after they have been highlighted again and again in press protection. The truth that Ford, removed from clarifying his remarks, stubbornly dug in solely made issues worse. Ford misplaced essential days in an election and solidified his repute as an out-of-touch oaf…. Tuesday’s debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz is more likely to play out with the identical slow-fuse dynamic…. The moment polling accomplished after the controversy reveals that it was mainly a wash…. However even these ballot numbers ought to be handled as preliminary, as a result of Walz very neatly performed a protracted sport within the debate…. The important thing to Walz’s technique was to not go after Vance immediately (since only a few voters care concerning the vp); fairly, Walz obtained Vance to commit himself to one in every of Trump’s most unpopular actions, inciting the January 6 assault on the Capitol (Walz’s damning “non-answer”). The Harris marketing campaign is correct to give attention to this change. Much more than Gerald Ford’s Poland gaffe, it’s an error that illuminates—in an easy-to-understand method—all the things mistaken with a candidate. Vance’s feedback present not simply his personal ethical cravenness but additionally the best way Trump has bullied all those that work with him into accepting the Huge Lie concerning the 2024 marketing campaign. If the Harris marketing campaign and its surrogates maintain pushing this clip, they will bathroom down the Trump marketing campaign for days if not weeks in defending the indefensible.” • Hmm. An outdated debate technique referred to as sand-bagging, though on this case the blow lands after the controversy is over. Needs to be taking place already, with solely 33 days to go.

* * *

Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “One Month Earlier than Election Day, Choose Chutkan Permits Jack Smith to Broadcast His Proof” [Andrew McCarthy, National Review]. “Smith has argued, preposterously, that ‘the general public‘ — by which he means Democrats — has a proper to a speedy trial due to the significance of the Trump instances. On the contrary, the Structure provides solely the defendant a speedy-trial proper, which defendants might and steadily do waive in the event that they want extra time to organize their protection (additionally a constitutional proper). The general public has an curiosity in a simply trial, not a immediate one — and there’s nothing nearly prosecutors’ submitting 4 indictments in opposition to their get together’s political rival with the target of making an attempt him earlier than Election Day in a fashion that provides him insufficient time to organize for trial, not to mention put together for 4 trials…. And as for the asserted significance of the instances, it lies of their political consequence (if any), which is an element that prosecutors and judges aren’t imagined to weigh; there are unambiguous Justice Division guidelines to this impact. For the umpteenth time, this isn’t to reduce Trump’s actions in reference to the 2020 election — the stop-the-steal scheme and the Capitol riot (for which I’ve repeatedly mentioned Trump was rightly impeached, and may have been convicted and disqualified from future workplace; and over which I’ve repeatedly argued that Republicans have been nuts to appoint him, versus a extra nationally viable candidate who, by now, could be ten factors up in opposition to Kamala Harris). It’s to emphasize that isn’t a authentic law-enforcement or judicial precedence to pressure a pre-election trial of these expenses.” • On the Smith temporary FWIW:

A little bit of tit for tat:

Final evening, Trump’s attorneys filed a movement asking Chutkan to permit them to file a equally extreme response to Jack Smith’s behemoth of an “immunity movement” and to increase deadline for submitting.

Trump’s response to Smith’s 165-page file is due Oct 17. pic.twitter.com/x4QTHgOWkT

— Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) October 3, 2024

Case for the protection (although final I checked, Rasmussen was a polling operation, so what’s up with this?

A number of shrill noise right this moment about 2020 election fraud. President Trump says 2020 was “rigged.” Proof collected by official state and court docket case investigations point out that it was. Proof hyperlinks by state are for readers beneath. Dig in. https://t.co/SchLyucrRV

— Rasmussen Studies (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 3, 2024

Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “11 damning particulars in Jack Smith’s new temporary within the Trump election case” [Politico]. “A lot of Smith’s temporary targeted on Trump’s way of thinking within the weeks main as much as the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Smith described a slew of conversations suggesting that the then-president knew his claims of election fraud have been spurious. And Smith laid out proof that Trump’s sole goal was to remain in energy — not, as he and his attorneys have claimed, to train authentic authority over election integrity.”

Trump (R): “Trump calls Jack Smith submitting ‘pure election interference’ ” [NewsNation]. “Former President Donald Trump referred to as the unsealing of paperwork in his election interference case by particular counsel Jack Smith a “weaponization of the federal government” throughout an unique interview with NewsNation on Wednesday in Houston, Texas. The Republican nominee was at a personal fundraiser when he informed NewsNation’s Ali Bradley that Smith is a ‘deranged particular person’ following the dismissal of his separate categorised paperwork case in July. ‘This was a weaponization of the federal government … and launched 30 days earlier than the election,’ Trump mentioned of Wednesday’s developments. ‘My ballot numbers have gone up as a substitute of down. It’s pure election interference.’ The interview got here after prosecutors, in a court docket submitting unsealed Wednesday, mentioned Trump “resorted to crimes” after dropping the 2020 election by disregarding the recommendation of his vp and different aides.”

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump floats deporting authorized Haitian migrants dwelling in Ohio” [Axios]. “Trump, talking to NewsNation in Houston, Texas, mentioned he would revoke the Non permanent Protected Standing (TPS) for Haitian immigrants and ‘deliver them again to their nation.’ ‘For my part, it’s not authorized. It’s not authorized for anyone to do,’ Trump mentioned. TPS is a federal program that enables migrants from some international locations to legally reside in america for a sure interval when the situations of their residence nation are unsafe. Migrants from Haiti, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Venezuela are amongst some international locations eligible for this system, requiring members to re-register with the Division of Homeland Safety every year. Haitians have been included within the TPS program since January 22, 2010, following a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that killed round 220,000 individuals.” • For some definition of “authorized.” 2010 looks like fairly a very long time in the past.

Trump (R): “Melania Trump says she pressured Donald to drop hardline immigration coverage” [Guardian]. “Relating to youngster separations, she continues [in her book]: ‘Whereas I assist sturdy borders, what was happening on the border was merely unacceptable. I instantly addressed my deep issues with Donald relating to the household separations, emphasizing the trauma it was inflicting these households. As a mom myself, I confused: ‘The federal government shouldn’t be taking youngsters away from their dad and mom.’ I communicated with nice readability … ‘This has to cease.’ ‘Donald assured me that he would examine the problem, and on 20 June, he introduced the top of the household separation coverage.’ The primary woman’s intervention was reported on the time.”

* * *

Kennedy (I): “Unique: A number of Girls Claiming Romantic Relationships With RFK Jr. Threaten His Standing in Trump Orbit” [Mediate]. “A minimum of three ladies are claiming to have had romantic relationships with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in simply the final yr, as he pursued a long-shot bid for the presidency, Mediaite has realized.” Properly, “three” is “a number of,” so. Extra: “Kennedy has lengthy been dogged by allegations of infidelity…. In an interview with The New York Solar, a number of days after Mediaite first reached out to Kennedy for remark, he was requested concerning the information of his alleged relationship with Nuzzi. He declined to talk about that particular story, however joked to his host, ‘I’ve so many skeletons in my closet, if they might vote I’d be king of the world.’”

* * *

“Abortion Rights, Elections, Legal Justice, and A lot Extra: The 2024 State Poll Points to Watch” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. ” This yr, 41 states have a minimum of one measure on the poll for voters to weigh in on, and lots of have a number of measures. The very best-profile difficulty on the poll this yr—as was the case in 2022 and 2023—is abortion. In all, 10 states have pro-abortion rights measures on the poll, together with such purple and pink states as Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota. Nebraska additionally has an anti-abortion measure on the poll.” • Huge roundup of all of the state ballots.

* * *

CA: “Federal choose stops implementation of California misinformation regulation” [Courthouse News]. “A federal choose dominated Wednesday that California’s regulation prohibiting altered election-related communications doesn’t cross constitutional scrutiny and the state can’t implement it. The choice by U.S. District Senior Choose John Mendez to difficulty a preliminary injunction is a win for Christopher Kohls, identified on-line as “Mr. Reagan,” who argued in his lawsuit that Meeting Invoice 2839 made computer-generated parody unlawful. Assemblymember Gail Pellerin, a Santa Cruz Democrat, wrote the regulation banning digitally manipulated communications, like mailers and video adverts, which might be false or deceptive and goal an election employee, elected official, voting gear or individuals working for workplace 4 months earlier than an election. Individuals who obtain such content material would have the ability to search damages from the distributor. Kohls, who has some 360,000 YouTube subscribers, calls political satire a elementary First Modification proper. His swimsuit is much like one filed Monday in federal court docket by conservative humor web site The Babylon Bee, which focused two payments, one in every of them being AB 2839. ‘We’re gratified that the district court docket agreed with our evaluation that new applied sciences don’t change the rules behind First Modification protections,’ Theodore Frank, one in every of Kohls’ attorneys, mentioned in a press release.”

MI: “Haunted by 2016, some Michigan Democrats fear that Harris stays ill-defined in swing state” [Associated Press]. “Democrats within the state have appeared ascendant since [2016], controlling the governorship, each Senate seats and the state legislature. However some get together leaders listed here are apprehensive that pattern isn’t sufficient to place distance between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris’ marketing campaign is banking on the truth that they’ve spent significantly extra money than Trump on adverts and have a stronger voter outreach program. Michigan is a state that Harris nearly definitely should win to seize the White Home, and Democrats’ issues are rooted within the worry that polls don’t register all Trump supporters each right here and in different battleground states because the marketing campaign enters a vital closing section.” And the Muslim/Uncommitted vote: “The dying of a Dearborn resident, who Dingell and different group leaders this week mentioned was killed in south Lebanon, has solely ignited anger within the historically Democratic space. Kamel Ahmad Jawad’s dying was confirmed Wednesday by a spokesperson for the White Home’s Nationwide Safety Council…. Harris might overcome divisions inside the Democratic coalition by boosting voter turnout in Wayne County, residence to Detroit, the place low turnout in 2016 contributed to Clinton’s loss. Black group leaders famous that pleasure surged when Harris entered the race in the summertime, and that some momentum continues within the majority-Black metropolis of Eastpointe, simply north of Detroit.” Apparently: “‘Democrats’ monetary assets completely dwarf something that the Republicans have,’ mentioned former Republican Michigan Gov. John Engler. “However Trump is making stops in places which have by no means had presidential visits earlier than, and people are impactful with margins this shut.”

NC: “How Will Hurricane Helene Have an effect on This Wildly Shut Election?” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. On North Carolina: “Clearly individuals who have misplaced houses or different possessions to excessive winds and (particularly) flooding and/or who lack energy or different necessities for an prolonged time frame are particularly depending on emergency help and could also be grateful if it arrives expeditiously. Past for these instantly affected, the perceived competence and compassion of presidency entities coping with catastrophe aid and restoration efforts can have an effect on how voters assess these in workplace, notably in a high-profile state of affairs like that created by Helene. An American Enterprise Institute research of [Hurricane] Sandy recommended that the Obama administration’s response to the storm was a significant component within the incumbent’s potential to win late deciders in 2012, topped by this discovering: ‘Totally 15 p.c of the citizens rated Obama’s hurricane response as a very powerful issue of their vote.’ On the different finish of the spectrum, the George W. Bush administration’s tardy, confused, and seemingly detached response to the calamity of Hurricane Katrina in August and September of 2005 had an enduringly damaging impact on perceptions of his presidency, although it occurred nowhere near a nationwide election, as Reid Wilson defined… Whereas FEMA and HUD are usually the federal companies most concerned in catastrophe response and restoration, presidential management in a catastrophe at all times will get consideration, too, and the chance of damaging publicity or graphic shows of unmet wants gained’t go away instantly. Bureaucratic backlogs in distributing funds and approving functions for help might trigger voter unhappiness lengthy after the preliminary injury is addressed. The underside line is that barring sudden developments or a serious collection of screwups within the federal response, Hurricane Helene is more likely to mark a giant second within the lives of individuals in and close to the areas of devastation however most likely gained’t a lot have an effect on their voting conduct. Clearly the campaigns and their allies might want to modify their get-out-the-vote operations and present some sensitivity to the struggling of individuals whose lives have been turned the wrong way up. We are able to solely hope the election itself and its aftermath don’t add violence and trauma to the injury accomplished.” • These questions could be answered empirically, a minimum of in North Carolina, by reporting on roads being open, precincts open, and folks’s reactions typically. After all, the press must go exterior Asheville to do that, so solutions appear unlikely.

PA: “Within the presidential election’s most vital state, the race is a lifeless warmth” [Brookings]. “In 2024, all roads result in Pennsylvania, the most important of the seven swing states. Perhaps, the winner of the state will win the election. It’s the state that every candidate can least afford to lose. If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania in addition to Michigan and Wisconsin, she may have 270 electoral votes, no matter occurs within the contested southern and southwestern states. If Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania in addition to Georgia and North Carolina, he may have 270 electoral votes, no matter occurs within the southwest or the higher Midwest… Harris’ path to victory in Pennsylvania faces a key hurdle: The Democratic benefit in voter registration has continued the erosion that started proper after the Obama surge of 2008. Since 2020, the Democratic edge has been minimize in half, from 686,000 to only 343,000, whereas Republican and Impartial registration has continued to extend. As a share of the whole citizens, Republican registration rose from 39.0% in 2020 to 40.2% this yr whereas the Democratic share fell from 46.5% to 44.1%, decreasing the Democratic edge from 7.5 factors to three.9 factors.”

PA: “One other ‘Arduous Tie’ within the Race for President in PA” [RealClearPennsylvania]. “Impartial voters say that Trump could be higher for his or her private funds by a 50–38% margin. Because the prime difficulty for all voters stays the financial system, that’s benefit Trump. The subsequent most vital difficulty to voters is threats to democracy, adopted by immigration. Pennsylvania is on a razor’s edge in each the presidential and Senate races.” • Attention-grabbing, that #2.

Realignment and Legitimacy

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

Lambert right here: Eventually, the wastewater knowledge appears to be like improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Again to Faculty” bullet, a minimum of on the nationwide stage. The wastewater drop is strengthened by the positivity numbers as effectively.

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new right this moment; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with scorching spots annotated. A lot much less intense!

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* extremely popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, however value noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Positively down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).

[7] (Walgreens) Huge drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of individuals claiming unemployment advantages within the US rose by 6,000 from the earlier week to 225,000 on the interval ending September twenty eighth, surpassing market expectations of 220,000 to mark a brand new three-week excessive. The rise in claims stored preliminary counts above the averages recorded earlier this yr, reinforcing the pattern of a softening labor market and supporting predictions that the Federal Reserve will implement fee cuts in every remaining resolution this yr.”

Employment SItuation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers introduced 72,821 job cuts in September 2024, barely down from 75,891 in August, however 53% increased than 47,457 a yr earlier. Expertise introduced probably the most job cuts….”

Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing unit Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for US manufactured items eased by 0.2% from the earlier month to $590.4 billion in August of 2024, trimming the downwardly revised 4.9% bounce within the earlier month, and lacking forecasts that it might have remained unchanged.”

“Everybody Is Getting the Dockworkers Strike All Fallacious” [Salon]. “Sure, it’s a narrative about modern-day labor anxieties and union leverage—nevertheless it’s additionally about one thing much more complicated than your typical workers-vs.-bosses toss-up…. However the dockworkers of right this moment should be expert, educated, and dexterous sufficient to make sure that the incoming freight vans, the hefty gear, the doubtless hazardous cargo, and the boats themselves function safely and easily all through all steps of the method… That premium on talent and labor, added to the union’s historic energy, makes these dockworkers ‘the highest-paid blue-collar employees within the nation,’ because the American Prospect notes… The primary sticking level, nevertheless, is displacement. The enterprise pursuits answerable for the ports need to embed extra self-propelling know-how inside dock work, whether or not that constitutes automated vans, gates, or cranes. This pattern has taken off at dozens of ports internationally. Nonetheless, a number of research and real-world examples have proven that full or semi-automation doesn’t really do a lot to cut back prices or enhance effectivity on the docks, though in sure functions, it might assist to make sure human security. And therein lies one other major battle about tech on the docks: The Maritime Alliance is considering leaving some leeway for automation, however the dockworkers need completely none. The work could also be grueling, nevertheless it’s among the many few organized blue-collar professions that may provide its staff a stable life-style and dignity.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Jet Catches Hearth Earlier than Takeoff, Prompting Airport Closure” [Men’s Journal]. “Nearly 200 vacationers have been evacuated from a Boeing jet as partitions of flames spewed from one of many engines, video shared to X (previously Twitter) reveals. The incident occurred early on Wednesday morning at Italy’s Brindisi Airport shortly earlier than a Boeing 737 operated by Ryanair was scheduled to take off. Smoke crammed the cabin as crews shortly responded and evacuated the jet, however not earlier than one passenger captured footage of the flames licking the aircraft’s window.” • Whoops. (Reuters mentions “fumes.”)

Zeitgeist Watch

Gallery

For Alma-Tadema stans, thread value studying in full:

Groves of Academe

“College students and school object to UCLA’s buy of extra navy {hardware}” [Los Angeles Public Press]. “The College of California Regents authorized the acquisition of navy gear at September’s UC Regents assembly at UCLA. The unanimous vote came about behind closed doorways whereas the UCLA Police Division (UCPD), wearing riot gear, pressured those that got here to present public remark exterior of the constructing. The authorized purchases embody 3,000 rounds of pepper munitions, 500 rounds of 40mm influence munitions, 12 drones, and 9 less-lethal launchers throughout six College of California campuses.” • Oh.

Information of the Wired

Make that holder coin-operated, and also you’ve obtained a rentier’s cup.

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “That is a type of which may drive you loopy. Vertical traces are appropriate and even the horizontal railing is nice, however the breakwater simply above it provides an phantasm of off-kilterness (phrase?).” Readers?

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t categorical the views of the Bare Capitalism website. For those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

For those who hate PayPal, you’ll be able to electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on easy methods to ship a test. Thanks!