In Actual Time, Does a Downturn in Family Survey Employment Higher Presage a Recession than One within the Institution Survey?

Right here’s the present state of affairs:

Determine 1: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, proper log scale), each in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, each as of 10/4/2024. Supply: BLS through FRED. 

The arrows denote native peaks. Be aware there are two for the family collection; the 2023M11 commentary is barely 2000 increased than the 2024M09 determine. Taking the September determine because the native peak, there may be little suggestion {that a} NBER-peak has occurred.

And listed here are the (real-time) depictions of the family and institution collection round recession dates for the earlier 4 recessions.

Determine 2: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, proper log scale), each in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, each as of 6/7/1990. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS through ALFRED, NBER.

Determine 3: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, proper log scale), each in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, each as of 5/4/2001. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS through ALFRED, NBER.

Determine 4: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, proper log scale), each in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, each as of two/1/2008. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS through ALFRED, NBER.

Determine 5: Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, proper log scale), each in 1000’s, seasonally adjusted, each as of 4/3/2020. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS through ALFRED, NBER.

In actual time, the family collection turns one month sooner than the institution in two circumstances (2001, 2007), and twice the turning factors are the identical time (1990 and 2020). Within the revisions, the civilian collection peaks are moved earlier as soon as (1990), and later by two months (2001). The NFP peak is moved later as soon as (2001 recession).

I don’t assume one ought to take an excessive amount of from the present flattening out of the family collection, given the truth that there has possible been an undercounting the inhabitants, which has spilled onto the estimates of employment.