Will Family Wealth Be a Tailwind to Consumption in 2024Q3?

Right here’s an image of family web value, in each nominal and actual phrases, with my nowcasts for Q3.

Determine 1: Family web value (blue), nowcast for 2024Q3 (blue sq.), in billions $; actual family web value (tan), nowcast for 2024Q3 (brown triangle), in billions 2022$. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Actual web value deflated utilizing Chained CPI, September worth makes use of Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 10/6/2024. Supply:  Federal Reserve Circulation of Funds by way of FRED, BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and creator’s calculations.

Nominal (actual) web value is nowcasted to rise 2.5%(2.3%) q/q in Q3.

I generated the nowcast for family web value by a log-log regression, 2021Q3-2024Q2:

value = 14.184 + 0.382sp500 + 0.243house 

Adj-R2 = 0.91, SER = 0.013, DW = 2.22, NObs = 12. Daring face denotes significance at 10% msl, HAC strong commonplace errors.