Reader Steven Kopits writes:
Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t imagine I’ve declared a recession since.
No unfavorable quarters in 2021. I feel Mr. Kopits meant 2022. No two consecutive quarters of progress in 2022 (which was Mr. Kopits’ assertion, as late as January 2023, after repeated declarations).
Right here the information, as of 2024Q2 annual replace.
Determine 1: Quarter-on-Quarter annualized progress for actual GDP (daring blue), GDO (tan), GDP+ (inexperienced), calculated at log first variations occasions 4. Gentle blue shading denotes a purported recession. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
This graph demonstrates why the NBER’s Enterprise Cycle Relationship Committee doesn’t put major reliance on GDP as an indicator of recession. (Be aware that as of the present classic, there was no two-consecutive-quarter decline in actual GDP; however there was a two quarter decline within the 1947 interval, with out a recession declaration.)
