Fowl Track of the Day
Affected person readers, I’m afraid brunch bought somewhat out of hand. Extra quickly! –lambert
Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Laguna del Bosque, Guatemala. “Full singing bout, 12 minutes lengthy! First phrase not too clear, good high quality after that. Fowl was perched at midlevel in brush below tall cypress bushes, near footpath.”
Additionally: Please enable me to attract your consideration to my put up on the Macualey Library and birders, who collectively make this characteristic doable.
In Case You May Miss…
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than thirty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:
In case you ignore your entire idea of margin of error and go along with the narrative, one other good week for Trump, particularly in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, within the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. In fact, we on the surface would possibly as effectively be inspecting the entrails of birds after we attempt to predict what is going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly would possibly as effectively be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher information, and have the scenario as below management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * *
Democrats en Déshabillé
“The Democrats’ pro-union technique has been a bust” [Vox]. “However the political return on Democrats’ funding in organized labor has been disappointing…. In line with a report from the Middle for American Progress, between 2012 and 2016, the Democratic presidential nominee’s share of union voters fell from 66 to 53 p.c. 4 years in the past, Biden erased roughly half of that hole, claiming 60 p.c of the union vote. However modern polling signifies that Democrats have misplaced floor with unionized voters since then. In reality, in response to an aggregation from CNN’s Harry Enten, Kamala Harris is on observe to carry out even worse with union households than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.” Let me guess why: The working class is silly. Extra: “However there may be cause to suppose that unions’ capability to liberalize the views of non-college-educated voters has declined within the Trump period. In line with the Democratic information scientist David Shor, his celebration’s “union premium” — the diploma to which Democrats carry out higher with union voters, when controlling for all different demographic variables — dropped almost to zero in 2020. Democrats nonetheless did higher with unionized staff than nonunionized ones that 12 months. Extrapolating from Shor’s math, this was nearly solely attributable to the demographic traits of America’s unionized inhabitants, which is extra extremely educated and fewer Southern than the American voters.” • Yep.
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
Elite Maleficence
“Seasonal” as in “each season”:
CDC Announce That Summer time Wave Of Winter Viruses Is Over And We’re Now Shifting Into Fall Wave Of Winter Viruses pic.twitter.com/5fgaLlAHjI
— The Vertlartnic (@TheVertlartnic) October 16, 2024
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC October 5 | Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week): |
|
|
|
| Variants [3] CDC October 12 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 5 |
|
|
|
| Hospitalization | |
| New York[5] New York State, information October 15: | Nationwide [6] CDC September 21: |
|
|
|
| Positivity | |
| Nationwide[7] Walgreens October 14: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5: |
|
|
|
| Vacationers Knowledge | |
| Positivity[9] CDC September 16: | Variants[10] CDC September 16: |
|
|
|
| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28: |
|
|
|
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new as we speak; all others will not be up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Nonetheless some scorching spots, however I can’t draw circles round whole areas this week. Excellent news!
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* extremely popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, however price noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Undoubtedly down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “every part in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.
[7] (Walgreens) Massive drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “US unemployment claims dropped by 19,000 within the week ending October 12, marking the biggest lower in three months after hitting a 14-month excessive the earlier week. The overall variety of claims fell to 241,000, coming in effectively under market expectations of 260,000. This drop comes after a surge in claims the earlier week, largely attributable to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Regardless of this decline, claims stay effectively above the averages seen earlier this 12 months, reflecting a softening within the US labor market since its post-pandemic peak.”
Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial manufacturing within the US fell 0.3 p.c from a month earlier in September 2024, greater than market expectations of a 0.2 p.c lower and after a downwardly revised 0.3 p.c rise in August.”
Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US soared to 10.3 in October 2024, a big bounce from September’s 1.7 and surpassing the anticipated 3. Present normal exercise, new orders, and shipments all skilled progress, with new orders and shipments returning to constructive ranges. Nevertheless, the employment index decreased, indicating steady employment situations.”
Retail: “U.S. Retail Gross sales” [Trading Economics]. “Retail gross sales within the US elevated 0.4% month-over-month in September 2024, effectively above a 0.1% achieve in August and beating market expectations of a 0.3% rise. Gross sales at miscellaneous retailer retailers recorded the largest enhance (4%), adopted by clothes (1.5%), well being and private care shops (1.1%) and meals and drinks shops (1%).”
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s large borrowing is likely to be backing it right into a nook’ [Quartz]. “Boeing’s plan to outlast its strike is taking form, with Reuters reporting on plans to boost $15 billion by means of inventory and convertible bond gross sales…. Structuring its new borrowings will probably be a really delicate maneuver for Boeing, which can face credit score scrutiny as a result of uncertainty of its labor scenario. Any additional stress on its stability sheet would possibly push the corporate to a breaking level. Assessing the preliminary announcement of the brand new money injection plans, the Fitch rankings company was very cautiously optimistic. ‘Administration’s willingness and skill to entry non-debt capital sources over the approaching months will assist alleviate downgrade dangers,’ it mentioned.”
Manufacturing: “The Machinists Take Boeing Hostage” [Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal]. “Whereas the strike doesn’t have the identical potential to close down the U.S. economic system because the longshoremen stoppage, it may have bigger penalties for nationwide safety. The strike is delaying manufacturing of army jets, and the layoffs may cut back analysis and improvement on protection and house.
The union could really feel it has the whip hand as a result of politicians aren’t more likely to let Boeing fail. However the firm may nonetheless emerge from a strike a lot weaker. Administration errors and unrealistic union calls for are damaging a as soon as nice American firm, and it’s hurting staff as a lot as shareholders.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Wants Some Assist to Stem Its Money Burn and Losses” [Bloomberg]. “the extra fast want is to finish the strike and return to producing high-quality plane, and Boeing wants somewhat monetary respiration room for that. Actually, the Protection Division may ease a few of Boeing’s ache by renegotiating fixed-price contracts which can be strangling the corporate.” • Fascinating to see who’s using to Boeing administration’s rescue…
Manufacturing: “Decision of a Boeing authorized disaster hangs in stability as monetary disaster deepens” [Yahoo Finance]. “Boeing’s plan to put off 1000’s of staff may probably pose an issue for approval of the responsible plea deal, in response to [Rizwan Qureshi, a former federal prosecutor and white-collar partner in Reed Smith LLP’s Washington office]. The corporate breached its unique DOJ settlement by failing to hold out its promised compliance and ethics measures. As a result of these necessities have been meant to forestall and detect future violations of US fraud legal guidelines, Boeing could have to fulfill Decide O’Connor that laid-off staff will not be wanted to hold out its future security commitments.” And: “The households need the settlement thrown out in favor of a trial and greater fines. Boeing has agreed to pay $487 million, together with a credit score for roughly $243 million in fines already paid…. Family members of the victims requested the choose to advantageous Boeing $24.8 billion.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Strike Stalemate Leaves Mediators Looking For Consensus” [Bloomberg]. “Federal mediators test in ceaselessly with the deadlocked officers, teasing out particulars of what they’re pondering and paying shut consideration to even the slightest wording modifications. They’re searching for shifts that might benefit summoning groups from Boeing and the Worldwide Affiliation of Machinists and Aerospace Employees again for extra negotiations, hoping the following spherical would possibly lastly convey a breakthrough… the IAM district has a historical past of lengthy strikes at Boeing — the common is 58 days, in response to Robert Spingarn of Melius Analysis LLC. And union officers have been making ready staff for years for an extended hold-out. ‘This isn’t essentially uncommon and specifically for these events, if you happen to look again traditionally,’ mentioned [Beth Schindler, a regional director for the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service], who’s been with FMCS since 1996 in Seattle, serving to on earlier Boeing strikes. ‘I’ve little doubt that they’re working behind the scenes, even when independently, to determine what their subsequent steps are.’… ‘We’re searching for rocks to show over to see if there’s one thing beneath,’ Schindler mentioned.” • Flip over a rock at Boeing and also you’ll discover administration.
Manufacturing: “Ryanair Chief Says Boeing To Blame For Decrease Visitors Development” [Forbes]. “Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary mentioned that in his 30 years within the airline business he had by no means seen capability constraints like these he’s going through now. ‘We have been purported to get 20 deliveries earlier than the tip of December. They’ll in all probability come now in January and February, and that’s advantageous. We’ll have them in time for subsequent summer season,’ O’Leary mentioned. ‘The massive difficulty for Ryanair is we’re due 30 plane in March, April, Could and June of subsequent 12 months, and what number of of these will we get?’ ‘I believe we’re clearly going to stroll again our visitors progress for subsequent 12 months, as a result of I don’t suppose we’re going to get all these 30 plane,” O’Leary added.”
Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 74 Greed (earlier shut: 76 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 70 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 15 at 1:03:44 PM ET.
Since this can be a Sales space cartoon, I thought of placing it in Gallery, however Zeitgeist Watch appears extra acceptable:
— Glitz Ladle Crowe (@MyrlCrowe) October 17, 2024
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired as we speak.
Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are advantageous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “I don’t know what it’s about roses with a wall background that at all times compels me to {photograph} them, however that’s my excuse for taking this one.”
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t categorical the views of the Bare Capitalism web site. In case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
In case you hate PayPal, you may e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on the way to ship a test. Thanks!
