With the second launch for GDP, we’ve the next image of combination output:
Determine 1: GDP (black), GDPNow nowcast of two/27 for GDP (mild blue sq.), GDP+ scaled to 2019Q4 (purple), GDO (blue), GDI (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. 2023Q4 GDI, GDO based mostly on assuming 2023Q4 enterprise surplus is similar as 2023Q3. Supply: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and creator’s calculations.
The expenditure facet measure of “Y” (as I’d inform my macro college students) continues to be estimated above the earnings measure. Notice that we actually don’t know GDI and GDO for 2023Q4, as enterprise surplus is unknown. I’ve guesstimated GDI and GDO assuming enterprise surplus is fixed in nominal phrases going from Q3 to This autumn. Below this assumption, GDI continues to develop in This autumn.
What about closing gross sales, a greater measure of combination demand? This continues to develop as nicely.
Determine 2: Ultimate gross sales (blue, left scale), GDPNow nowcast of two/27 for closing gross sales (mild blue sq., left scale), closing gross sales to home personal (tan, proper scale), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA, Atlanta Fed, and creator’s calculations.
In This autumn, closing gross sales to non-public home purchasers (which some observers take as a greater measure of momentum) is 2.8% q/q AR, in comparison with GDP progress of three.2%. Therefore, momentum in combination demand appears robust. For Q1, GDPNow signifies the identical progress charges for Q1…
As an apart, word there isn’t a two consecutive decline in GDP+ in 2022H1, and just one quarter decline in GDI. Neither measure of ultimate gross sales point out a two-consecutive quarter decline.
