Reversion, seen over the previous month. Why? Unclear given small actions in swing state polls.
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I’d count on these odds to match, fairly intently, however they don’t. Liquidity?
Polymarket approach off (segmented from US members?). RealClearPolitics common doesn’t embrace PredictIt (nor Kalshi).
538’s prediction over time. Inexperienced line marks starting final month of knowledge.
Replace, 3:31pm CT:
Extra reversion (image over final 3 months):
Proxy? DJT collapses (once more), image over final 3 months as properly:
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