Private spending is available in at consensus, private earnings above. Right here’s an image of key indicators adopted by the NBER Enterprise Cycle Courting Committee plus month-to-month GDP.
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment (daring darkish blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (crimson), private earnings excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 2nd launch (blue bars), GDPNow for 2024Q1 as of two/29 (lilac field), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q4 2nd launch, Atlanta Fed, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (2/1/2024 launch), and creator’s calculations.
GDPNow for Q1 is 3.0% (q/q AR) as of at the moment.
Listed here are some various indicators: heavy truck gross sales, coincident index, and car miles traveled.
Determine 2: Heavy truck gross sales (blue), coincident index (tan), car miles traveled, s.a. utilizing X-13 (inexperienced), all in logs, 2021M11=0. Supply: Census, Philadelphia Fed, NHTSA through FRED, and creator’s calculations.
Whereas car miles traveled is trending sideways, it’s not a dependable predictor or coincident indicator of recession (see this submit). Heavy truck gross sales – together with the 12 month progress charge – is an effective indicator. This measure is nicely outdoors of the recession zone. The coincident index from the Philadelphia Fed signifies no slowdown.
I’m laborious pressed to see an ongoing recession within the December-January information.
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