2:00PM Water Cooler 11/8/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Music of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, 350 South Madison Avenue, Pasadena, Los Angeles, California, United States.

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

1. Trump vs. “the Deep State.”
2. Boeing, post-strike.
3. Mushroom farms and air flow.
4. Weeds turning into immune to herbicides.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“We did it, Joe”:

Biden oversaw the one greatest removing of social advantages in American historical past, which resulted within the single greatest enhance in poverty in American historical past. He known as this “Bidenomics.”

Then Kamala stated she’d do nothing otherwise whereas campaigning in a $62,000 gold necklace. pic.twitter.com/uhEzzH5SGG

— Holding Dems Accountable (From the Left!) (@PushBidenLeft) November 8, 2024

Trump Transition:

“Vitality within the government:”

I ran this in Hyperlinks this morning, however need to make a couple of further feedback:

#10 “Push a constitutional modification to oppose time period limits on members of Congress.” I feel “oppose” is a typo for “impose.” In any case, time period limits are a horrible thought, as a result of they imply that the Legislative Department can find yourself with no institutional reminiscence. Once we had been preventing the landfill in Maine, we found that the one individuals who may interpret the related laws had been the bent attorneys from Portland who wrote it, on the behest of the landfill operator.

#5 “Launch a significant crackdown on authorities leakers who collude with the faux information to intentionally we false narratives and to subvert our authorities and our democracy.” I ponder what Snowden or Assange would take into consideration that. Or Ellsberg. I see the qualifiers “intentionally” and “false” however they don’t give me confidence. (In actual fact, if Trump supported whistleblowers, normally, whether or not for presidency or trade, he could be giving RFK numerous assist in his dealings with Large Pharma and Large Ag,

#6 – #9… Would possibly as properly give it a shot (although CDC appears to have made its very personal cesspit in Atlanta, so I’m unsure how a lot good #8 would do.

#2 “Clear out all the corrupt actors in our nationwide safety and intelligence equipment.” This may be fantastic to see (although does it applly to torturers?). After I wrote “Mission 2025: 920 Pages of Irritable Psychological Gestures, or a Blueprint for Fascism?“, I had a litmus check to see if Mission 2025 suggestions for CIA, ODNI, and CISA could be taken critically: Firings. Maybe they may.

Superb, in a great way, to see an elected (albeit not inaugurated) President suggest such issues. I ponder who put it collectively? (I actually, actually don’t just like the doomy soundtrack to the video, although.)

2024 Submit Mortem

Deploy the Blame Cannons!

“A Pink-District Conqueror Desires Fellow Democrats to Look within the Mirror” [New York Times]. “I’ve had one interplay with Harris, at her Naval Observatory Christmas get together.

I’m not tremendous comfy at that form of factor. I’d had a few beers, and I seen that just about all the garlands had been plastic. My district grows a hell of numerous Christmas bushes. I used to be strong-armed into taking an image. I stated, “Madam Vice President, we develop these the place I reside.” She simply walked away from me. There was form of a watch roll, possibly. My considering was, it does matter to individuals the place I reside. It’s the respect, the cultural regard for farmers. I didn’t really feel like she understood what I used to be making an attempt to say.” • Harris was an objectively horrible candidate.

“‘They don’t perceive my life’: what the Democrats misinterpret about America” [Financial Times]. “‘The Democratic model is fairly dangerous,’ stated Matt Bennett, co-founder of Third Method, a centrist Democratic think-tank. ‘The nation has shifted fairly far to the proper, and we weren’t conscious of how deep the issue ran. The voters that we misplaced . . . checked out Democrats and stated: ‘They don’t perceive my life. I don’t need them representing me.’” Centrist dipshits like Third Method constructed the Democrat model ffs. Cease with the “Who me?” already. However they’re nonetheless at it: “‘The one solution to defeat rightwing populism is thru the centre,’ Bennett stated. Shrum agreed that having ‘a reasonably liberal, centre-left Democratic get together is the one means ahead if progressives really need to win.’” • [bangs head on desk].

“The Shattering of the Democratic Coalition” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “But Democrats can’t decisively beat their opponents as this election has proven as soon as once more. The get together is uncompetitive amongst white working-class voters and amongst voters in exurban, small city, and rural America. This places them at a large structural drawback given an American electoral system that offers disproportionate weight to those voters, particularly in Senate and presidential elections. So as to add to the issue, Democrats are actually hemorrhaging nonwhite working-class voters throughout the nation. The info should be confronted. The Democratic coalition at present shouldn’t be match for objective.” Meme: By no means was (although to be honest, if the aim was gutting the real left, they did nice). Extra: “Amongst all working-class voters, Trump dramatically widened his benefit, tripling his margin from 4 factors in 2020 to 12 factors on this election. That included transferring from 25 to 29 factors amongst white working-class voters and radically compressing his deficit amongst nonwhite working-class voters from 48 factors in 2020 to 33 factors this election. Examine that margin to what Obama had in 2012: in line with Catalist, he carried the nonwhite working class by 67 factors in that election. That signifies that Democrats have had their margin amongst this core constituency greater than minimize in half during the last 12 years. Ouch. A lot for the ‘rising American voters.’ And it’s time to face the truth that the GOP has develop into the get together of America’s working class. Democrats hate to confess that and mutter that they symbolize the “pursuits” of the working class. However the numerical sample is now too highly effective to be denied. As an alternative of denying the apparent—or, worse, blaming the dumb staff for not realizing their very own pursuits—Democrats could be well-advised to simply accept this new actuality and search to alter it. Until they’re content material to be primarily the get together of America’s well-off. Harris misplaced voters below $50,000 in family earnings in addition to voters from $50,000 to $100,000 in earnings. However she did carry voters with over $100,000 in family by 8 factors, one place the place Harris did enhance over Biden in 2020. This isn’t, as they are saying, your father’s Democratic Occasion. Not even shut.”

* * *

“If solely we had our personal Joe Rogan!”

Undersold a part of the bro exit from the Dem get together is the best way that his male supporters had been aggressively smeared as poisonous sexist Bernie bros. https://t.co/mQb5ZDP1Sq

— Krystal Ball (@krystalball) November 7, 2024

“Why Democrats received’t construct their very own Joe Rogan” [Taylor Lorenz, User Mag]. “Whereas the proper has spent years fostering a symbiotic relationship with different media, the left has failed replicate something prefer it. There are merely no progressive content material creators with Rogan’s cultural influence and on-line following, and a fast take a look at the podcast charts or trending channels on YouTube exhibits the disparity between conservative vs progressive creators’ attain on-line. With out a community of culturally related influential content material creators boosting and translating their messaging, the Democratic Occasion is quickly shedding credibility amongst youthful, predominantly male audiences who’ve develop into ardent supporters of influencers that promote a distinctly conservative worldview.” They used to have one, again within the day: It was known as the blogosphere. Extra: “Leftist channels don’t obtain widespread monetary backing from billionaires or massive institutional donors, primarily as a result of leftist content material creators help insurance policies which might be utterly at odds with what billionaires need. Left leaning influencers argue for issues like greater taxes on the wealthy, laws on firms, and insurance policies that curb the ability of elites. Rich mega donors aren’t going to begin pouring cash right into a media ecosystem that straight contradicts their very own monetary pursuits. And so, progressive creators are left to depend on meager crowdfunding efforts to make a dwelling. ”

“How Trump Received the First “Influencer Election”” [Taylor Lorenz, Hollywood Reporter]. “For the previous 20 years, the media panorama has been reworking. By practically each metric, legacy media is in decline: common month-to-month distinctive guests to web sites for the nation’s prime 50 newspapers declined 20 % to below 9 million within the fourth quarter of 2022, in line with Comscore knowledge, and the period of time persons are spending consuming legacy media content material is getting shorter. The content material creator trade, in the meantime, is ascendent. The influencer financial system is about to surpass half a trillion {dollars} by 2027, in line with a current Goldman Sachs report, and 30 % of customers belief content material creators greater than they did six months in the past, in line with a 2023 report by Sprout Social, an analytics agency.” And: “However whereas each campaigns labored time beyond regulation to courtroom influencers, their methods had been divergent. The Harris marketing campaign prioritized shortform clips, investing in fast movies and viral remixes on TikTok and Instagram. The Trump marketing campaign went deep and lengthy, investing closely in longform YouTube podcasts and constructing partnerships with livestreamers. In the end, the latter proved wildly extra profitable. ” • Lengthy kind movies. Now that’s fascinating.

* * *

“Iowa pollster makes bombshell declare about controversial ballot that confirmed Kamala profitable deep crimson state after Trump’s triumphant victory” [Daily Mail]. “‘With out concern or favor, we used the identical methodology as the ultimate ballot this yr to indicate a wholesome Trump lead in each 2020 and 2016. These turned out to seize the temper of the voters fairly properly, although each took hearth from Iowans who doubted the findings may very well be true.’ She continued an try to defend her methodology, which got here as an entire shock to voters the weekend previous to the election. ‘The ballot findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom didn’t match what the Iowa voters finally determined within the voting sales space at present,’ she stated. ‘I’ll be reviewing knowledge from a number of sources with hopes of studying why that occurred, and I welcome what that course of would possibly train me.’ Selzer’s ballot for the Register and Mediacom days earlier than the election predicted Harris would win by +3 share factors. However Donald Trump went on to trounce the vp by over +13 factors within the Hawkeye State….. Nonetheless, the state has not at all times been reliably crimson, and swung for Barack Obama in each the 2008 and 2012 elections by +9 % and +6 %, respectively. Selzer – who was mercilessly mocked after Iowa went to Trump – had precisely predicted every of those outcomes going again to 2008, giving her a Nostradamus-like popularity that drew eyeballs to her incorrect Harris ballot final week.”

* * *

“Trump and Harris Make Good After Brutal Marketing campaign Battle” [RealClearPolitics]. • So was all that “Fascist!” and “Hitler!” stuff full bullshit?

* * *

Marketing campaign Finance

“How Elon Musk helped will Trump again to the White Home” [Washington Examiner]. “Musk’s affect in 2024 exhibits two issues, Ludwig stated. One, cash shouldn’t be all the things, contemplating Harris loved way more of it this cycle because of ultra-wealthy backers on the Left. However two, rich Republicans similar to Musk are ready not solely to help candidates financially, but in addition work in strategic and inventive methods to inspire voters.” Hmm. Extra: “For now, Musk has landed a worthwhile spot in Trump’s inside circle. The 2 have mentioned making a authorities effectivity board that seeks to cut back federal spending with Musk on the helm. It’s a prospect that, in line with some left-leaning watchdogs, may result in conflicts of curiosity since Musk’s firms additionally obtain massive federal contracts.” • I’m gonna need to invent a brand new phrase for “left”; it’s irretrievably polluted, since everyone thinks it means liberal, which it doesn’t.

Republican Funhouse

“The Most Feared and Least Recognized Political Operative in America” [Politico]. From April. “[Susie] Wiles isn’t just considered one of Trump’s senior advisers. She’s his most necessary adviser. She’s his de facto marketing campaign supervisor. She has been in essence his chief of workers for the final greater than three years. She’s one of many causes Trump is the GOP’s presumptive nominee and Ron DeSantis shouldn’t be. She’s one of many causes Trump’s present operation has been getting credit score for being extra skilled than its fractious, seat-of-the-pants antecedents. And he or she’s a number one cause Trump has each likelihood to get elected once more — even after his lack of 2020, the riot of 2021, his get together’s defeats within the midterms of 2022, the prison indictments of 2023 and the trial (or trials) of 2024. The previous president is doubtlessly a future president. And that’s due to him. However it’s additionally due to her. Trump, in fact, is Trump — he will be irritable, he will be impulsive — and this marketing campaign is going through unprecedented stressors and snags. It’s a protracted six-plus months until Election Day. For now, although, no one round him is so influential, and no one round him has been so influential for therefore lengthy. ‘There may be no one, I feel, that has the wealth of knowledge that she does. No person in our orbit. No person,’ prime Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio advised me. ‘She touches all the things.’ ‘Definitely,’ stated former Florida Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo, ‘she’s one of the crucial consequential individuals in American politics proper now.’ ‘And no one,’ stated veteran Florida lobbyist Ronnie E book, ‘even is aware of who she is.’” • I had thought Republicans hate girls….

* * *

“I Research Guys Like Trump. There’s a Cause They Preserve Successful” [New York Times]. “But now Mr. Trump has decisively received again the presidency. I’d by no means declare to have all of the solutions about what went improper, however I do fear that Democrats walked into the lure of defending the very establishments — the “institution” — that almost all Individuals mistrust. As a celebration focused on competent technocracy, we misplaced contact with the anger individuals really feel at authorities. As a celebration that prizes knowledge, we seized on indicators of development and job creation as proof that the financial system was booming, although individuals felt crushed by rising prices. As a celebration motivated by social justice, we let revulsion at white Christian nationalism bait us into identification politics on their phrases — whether or not it was debates about transgender athletes, the busing of migrants to cities, or shaming racist MAGA personalities who can’t be shamed. As a celebration dedicated to American management of a “rules-based worldwide order,” we defended a nationwide safety enterprise that has failed repeatedly within the twenty first century, and made ourselves hypocrites by means of unconditional army help for Israel’s bombardment of civilians in Gaza.” And: ” Many citizens have come to affiliate democracy with globalization, corruption, monetary capitalism, migration, eternally wars and elites (like me) who discuss it as an finish in itself slightly than a method to redressing inequality, reining in capitalist methods which might be rigged, responding to world battle and fostering a way of shared nationwide identification.” • As I’ve been saying, Democrats say “our democracy” for a cause. And in case you take a look at how candidates are chosen, the Republican Occasion is much extra democratic and the Democrat Occasion.

Why can’t we have now a Democrat candidate who can specific these concepts so clearly:

A elementary drawback within the Democratic Occasion is that it now has vanishingly few politicians who can articulate this sort of level as cogently because the Republican VP candidate did right here. pic.twitter.com/V0NBrW581Z

— David Sirota (@davidsirota) November 8, 2024

(Maybe all these long-form YouTubes have ready the conservative voter for a cogent and linked sequence of arguments, as a substitute of “brat summer season” or no matter.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Airborne Transmission: Covid

Parallel applied sciences:

Mushroom cultivation requires numerous lab based mostly work – you are working in (supposedly) sterile situations, eg when doing agar work. Laminar move hoods are required when doing this, in any other case contaminants will kill your efforts (mould will outcompete the mycelium, principally)…

— Matt Tutt (@MattTutt1) November 8, 2024

Michael Pollan, in The Botany of Need, urges that vegetation adapt us to their necessities for seed unfold and development by evolving tastes, nutriition, scents, and vibrant colours. Right here we have now mushrooms inducing us to breathe clear air, a lot to our profit!

Anecdotal however fascinating:

A yr in the past we put in Far UVC within the eating space of a nursing dwelling.

Since then outbreaks have decreased by 85% and total resident and workers properly being has elevated.

This nursing dwelling selected to make use of all potential instruments to make sure their occupants keep secure from viruses.… pic.twitter.com/pn5ZsuK2cG

— BioAbundance (@BioAbundancellc) November 7, 2024

After all, I distrust any agency with the phrase “abundance” in its identify, particularly [checks profile] a Californian one….

Transmission: Covid

“A Versatile Framework for Native-Degree Estimation of the Efficient Reproductive Quantity in Geographic Areas with Sparse Information” (preprint) [medRxiv]. From the Summary: “Our analysis focuses on native stage estimation of the efficient reproductive quantity, which describes the transmissibility of an infectious illness and represents the common variety of people one infectious particular person infects at a given time. The flexibility to precisely estimate the infectious illness reproductive quantity in geographically granular areas is important for catastrophe planning and useful resource allocation. Nonetheless, not all areas have adequate infectious illness end result knowledge for estimation.” • Can’t make head or tail of the remaining, however it may be helpful to any epidemiologists within the readership.

Transmission: H5N1

“Serologic Proof of Latest An infection with Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5) Virus Amongst Dairy Employees — Michigan and Colorado, June–August 2024” [Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, CDC]. “Well being officers performed surveys and serologic testing to establish current HPAI A(H5) infections amongst dairy staff in two states. .” • Do the mathematics:

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

Lambert right here: There are numerous starred gadgets at present, apart from yesterday, as a result of numerous CDC knowledge is launched on Friday. Additionally, New York hospitalization began up once more, which is sweet.

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new at present; all others should not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Excellent news!

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* nonetheless widespread. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Really improved.

[7] (Walgreens) Down.

[8] (Cleveland) Down.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Down.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Now XEC.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of notice at present.

Manufacturing: “Quebec media outlet is reporting potential knowledge falsification at plant the place faulty Winery Wind turbine blades had been manufactured” [Bud’s Offshore Energy]. “See the translated excerpts beneath from a Radio Gaspesie report. It is a large scandal if true. ‘Yesterday, the vice-president of worldwide operations at GE Vernova reportedly addressed all staff on the Gaspé plant to offer an replace on the state of affairs. The investigation, led by GE Vernova’s attorneys, reportedly revealed that staff had been requested by senior firm executives to falsify high quality management knowledge. Information related to a well-made blade was then related to poorly made blades. Our sources point out that it is a widespread observe within the trade. The senior administration of the Gaspé plant additionally allegedly applied a factors system that inspired staff to skip verification steps, thus prioritizing manufacturing amount over high quality. Our sources say the factors system allegedly concerned tight administration oversight that bordered on intimidation of staff. The outsized 107m blades that had been produced in Gaspé for the development of marine parks are stated to be affected. .” • Yikes!

Manufacturing: “Boeing to refund misplaced pay to staff furloughed throughout Machinists strike” [Seattle Times]. “In a goodwill gesture to Boeing staff who had been furloughed throughout the Machinists’ strike, new CEO Kelly Ortberg on Thursday afternoon despatched out a message saying the corporate will return the pay they misplaced… A longtime nonunion worker on the standard workers, who requested to not be named to guard his job, stated the furloughs had appeared ‘an odd means of caring for the individuals not on strike’ and that they destroyed productiveness that month as affected staff like him scrambled to determine the influence and what to do. ‘Clearly your time shouldn’t be spent specializing in work, however on OK, how am I going to deal with this? How do I pay my payments? How do I apply for unemployment?’ he stated. The staffer stated Thursday he’s ‘actually completely happy’ on the course reversal. ‘There’s nonetheless numerous distrust,’ he stated. ‘There’s nonetheless this sense of, ‘Wow, can I belief the corporate?” And but, he continued, “it is a step in the proper course.’”

“The Weeds Are Successful” [MIT Technology Review]. “In accordance with Ian Heap, a weed scientist who runs the Worldwide Herbicide-Resistant Weed Database, there have been properly over 500 distinctive instances of [herbicide-resistance] in 273 weed species and counting. Weeds have advanced resistance to 168 totally different herbicides and 21 of the 31 identified “modes of motion,” which suggests the particular biochemical goal or pathway a chemical is designed to disrupt. Some modes of motion are shared by many herbicides.” Darwin Awards for the trade! Extra: “Basically, the answer is to ‘not focus solely on herbicides for weed administration,’ says Micheal Owen, a weed scientist and emeritus professor at Iowa State College. And that presents a “main, main difficulty for the farmer” and the present state of American farms, he provides. Farms have ballooned in dimension during the last couple of a long time, on account of rural flight, labor prices, and the appearance of chemical substances and genetically modified crops that allowed farmers to shortly apply herbicides over large areas to regulate weeds capitalism. This has led to a form of sinister simplification when it comes to crop variety, weed management practices, and the like. And the weeds have adjusted.” • Edit mine.

“Mitochondria Are Alive” [Asimov Press]. “The cells inside our physique are the remnants of an historical alliance…. Margulis argued that one-and-a-half billion years in the past, a primitive eukaryotic cell engulfed an oxygen-utilizing bacterium. However slightly than digesting this bacterium — or conversely, the bacterium destroying its newfound host — the 2 cells progressively entered into an endosymbiotic relationship; the host offered vitamins and safety to the bacterium, and the bacterium equipped vitality to the host. Margulis argued that this endosymbiosis occasion was a seminal ‘innovation engine’ for organic methods, finally resulting in the trendy mitochondrion and chloroplast…. Most biologists at present, nevertheless, additionally consider that mitochondria have ‘devolved’ into little greater than membrane-bound organelles, just like inanimate elements just like the endoplasmic reticulum or Golgi equipment. However a swelling tide of scientific proof about mitochondrial capabilities and dynamics suggests in any other case — mitochondria should not simply organelles, however their very own life varieties…, Defining mitochondria as ‘nonliving’ isn’t only a classification mistake, nor a query of phrase alternative. Relatively, it’s a elementary misunderstanding of the character and function of mitochondria. It inherently undermines our understanding of organic methods and deeply influences the instruments we construct to check them.”