CARACAS, Nov 13 (IPS) – The Latin American and Caribbean area is a scholar with good grades in renewable vitality, however not in vitality effectivity, and has a protracted method to go in contributing to international local weather motion and overcoming the vulnerability of its inhabitants and economies.
The current vitality crises in Ecuador and Cuba, with energy outages starting from 14 hours a day to days at a time, and the threats posed by droughts – which this yr hit Bogotá and the Brazilian Amazon, for instance – to the hydroelectric techniques that energy the area, are proof of this.
Among the many 660 million Latin Individuals and Caribbeans enduring the varied impacts of local weather change, there are a minimum of 17 million individuals, some 4 million households, who nonetheless lack entry to electrical energy.
That state of affairs comes below new scrutiny on the twenty ninth Convention of the Events (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Conference on Local weather Change (UNFCCC), which started its two-week run on Monday 11 in Baku, capital of oil-rich Azerbaijan.
The annual convention of 196 states events has local weather motion financing as its essential theme and also will evaluation the worldwide dedication made a yr in the past to triple renewable vitality capability and double vitality effectivity.
The COP28 in Dubai proposed a world put in capability of 11,000 gigawatts (Gw, equal to 1,000 megawatts, Mw) of vitality from renewable sources by 2030, 7,000 Gw greater than immediately. That is unlikely, judging by the Nationally Decided Contributions (NDCs).
The NDCs function commitments by states to undertake measures to scale back greenhouse gasoline emissions in order that international warming doesn’t exceed 1.5 levels Celsius above pre-industrial averages, as acknowledged within the 2015 Paris Settlement, which concluded the COP21.
Within the case of Latin America and the Caribbean, “the put in capability for electrical energy era is already 58% renewable vitality, and in 11 international locations it exceeds 80%,” Uruguayan professional Alfonso Blanco, director of vitality transition and local weather on the Washington-based assume tank Inter-American Dialogue, informed IPS.
Based on the Latin American Vitality Organisation (Olade), the area’s put in electrical energy era capability was 480,605 megawatts (MW) in 2022, with about 300,000 MW produced from renewable sources – 200,000 MW from dams – and the remainder from non-renewable sources, primarily fossil fuels.
The Worldwide Renewable Vitality Company (Irena) put the area’s put in electrical energy era capability at 342,000 MW final yr, with advances in photo voltaic vitality installations, with a capability of 64,513 MW, and wind energy, which reached 49,337 MW, because the hydroelectric supply stays secure at 202,000 MW.
The Latin American and Caribbean area “can enhance its capability to generate electrical energy from sources resembling photo voltaic or wind, however it may possibly’t triple its hydroelectric capability,” stated Blanco, who was govt secretary of Olade within the interval 2017-2023.
Diana Barba, coordinator of vitality diplomacy on the Colombian assume tank Transforma, additionally believes that “tripling renewable vitality capability by 2030 doesn’t apply to Latin America and the Caribbean”.
“The following step is to take care of the proportion… till 2040, and normally to scale back the development in the direction of the usage of fossil fuels,” Barba informed IPS.
Elusive effectivity
Inexperienced vitality capability figures are enhancing yearly within the area, however vitality effectivity figures usually are not retaining tempo. Specialists from the Financial Fee for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) have proven that solely the Caribbean sub-region has made vital progress in comparison with the primary decade of this century.
Measured in kilograms of oil equal (kgoe) per 1,000 {dollars} of gross home product (GDP), the Caribbean consumed 110 kgoe through the 2001-2010 decade and decreased that expenditure to 67 models in 2022, whereas the area as a complete fell from 95 to 87 kgoe.
In that interval, the Andean sub-region was capable of fall from 108 kgoe to 90, Central America and Mexico from 85 to 70, and the Southern Cone remained at 90, though the determine is 80 kgoe if Brazil is excluded.
Effectivity, wherein the area exhibits extra modest outcomes, is prime for the triple function of saving assets, decreasing prices and, a major goal at local weather COPs, decreasing the carbon emissions that pollute the setting and warmth the environment, precipitating local weather change.
On this regard, the World Financial Discussion board, which annually gathers political and financial leaders, advocates electrifying transport, and above all stresses that NDCs ought to concentrate on demand and provide to enhance industrial vitality effectivity, solely talked about in 30% of the world’s NDCs.
In transport, an Olade research highlights that the fleet of electrified light-duty automobiles multiplied greater than 14 occasions within the area in 2020-2024, with a complete of 249,079 models in circulation by the primary half of 2024.
This market – which entails larger vitality effectivity and drastic reductions in carbon emissions – is led by Brazil with 152,493 automobiles, adopted by Mexico, Costa Rica, Colombia and Chile, however Costa Rica has the very best per capita determine, with 34 electrified vehicles per 10,000 inhabitants, adopted by Uruguay with 17.
Nonetheless, so far as manufacturing business is worried, with an annual GDP of 874 billion {dollars} (14% of regional GDP), ECLAC data that it consumes extra renewable vitality annually and fewer fossil fuels resembling residual gas oil.
However its vitality depth – an indicator that measures the ratio of vitality consumed to GDP – went from 232 tonnes of oil equal per million {dollars} of worth added within the Nineties to 238 TOE in 2022, suggesting that the area’s industrial sector has not improved its vitality effectivity.
4 South Individuals
To evaluate the mandatory and attainable efforts of every nation to contribute to international renewable vitality capability targets, Transforma studied 4 instances, these of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia.
Barba defined that Argentina and Brazil had been thought-about for his or her membership of the G20 (Group of 20 industrialised and rising economies), Colombia for its capability for motion and Chile for its choice to speed up the top of the operation of thermal energy vegetation, whereas inadequate info was acquired from Mexico.
Argentina may make the most of its onshore wind vitality potential and large-scale photo voltaic vitality, however Barba argues that “it might be super-difficult” to triple its vitality matrix in a number of years, which is just 37% lined by renewables, and that its present president, Javier Milei, “is betting on fossil fuels”.
Brazil can make the most of its large-scale renewable vitality potential, however Barba notes “contradictory indicators” relating to its NDCs, by favouring hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation within the Amazon “as a substitute of sending a really clear sign to shut these tasks in strategic ecosystems”.
Chile may attain 96% renewable era in its electrical energy matrix by 2030, benefiting from sources resembling photo voltaic, wind, thermal and geothermal, and Colombia may attain 80% renewables in put in electrical energy capability if it continues to multiply its photo voltaic and wind vitality installations.
Of the international locations analysed, Chile is the one one with a particular goal of 10% discount in its vitality depth, established in its nationwide vitality effectivity plan 2022-2026, and Transforma means that the opposite international locations undertake related targets of their plans for 2030.
Alternatively, there are requires financial savings, contemplating that vitality effectivity is “the primary gas”, essentially the most cost-effective supply or, in different phrases, that the cleanest vitality is the one that isn’t used.
A query of finance
Giovanni Pabón, Director of Vitality at Transforma, has acknowledged that “the difficulty of financing covers every part. If we do not have safe financing, we will discuss plenty of issues, however ultimately it is extremely tough to realize the targets we require” within the Paris Settlement.
Blanco highlights that, with a purpose to deal with their transition to inexperienced vitality, international locations within the area “are very a lot affected by the present limitations of their funding ecosystems, entry to financing, whether or not attributable to institutional issues, insurance policies or authorized safety”.
“Overcoming that barrier will not be inconceivable, however it requires work and political will, which is commonly missing,” he added.
He recalled that international locations with robust extractive industries, that are extra oriented in the direction of fossil fuels and allocate subsidies to them, stand out in that state of affairs.
Lastly, Blanco thought-about that COP29, the second consecutive one in an oil-producing nation, is “a transitional summit”, preparatory to COP30, which will likely be held in 2025 within the Amazonian metropolis of Belém do Pará, with Brazil as host and chief, and will produce clearer and firmer outcomes and commitments when it comes to renewable energies and vitality effectivity.
© Inter Press Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedAuthentic supply: Inter Press Service
