By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, yesterday was the advanced maneuvering preparatory to journey. At this time is the lurching and jolting of precise journey, hopefully arriving at a full complement of Water Cooler gadgets. –lambert
Chicken Music of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Nation Properties Flats, Jefferson, Texas, United States.
In Case You May Miss…
- Theories of Trump’s nomination nethodology.
- Treasury rumors proceed.
- RFK Large Mac flap.
Search for the Helpers
“Underrated methods to vary the world” [Experimental History].
Right here is an exemplary scientific paper:
Throughout the creator’s childhood, numerous famend authorities (his mom, a number of aunts, and, later, his mother-in-law [personal communication]) knowledgeable him that cracking his knuckles would result in arthritis of the fingers. To check the accuracy of this speculation, the next research was undertaken.
For 50 years, the creator cracked the knuckles of his left hand at the very least twice a day, leaving these on the fitting as a management. Thus, the knuckles on the left have been cracked at the very least 36,500 occasions, whereas these on the fitting cracked not often and spontaneously. On the finish of the 50 years, the arms have been in contrast for the presence of arthritis.
There was no arthritis in both hand, and no obvious variations between the 2 arms.
Individuals typically assume they’ll’t do analysis as a result of they don’t have an enormous magnet or a laser or a closet stuffed with reagents. However they’ve one thing the skilled scientists don’t have: freedom. The professionals can’t do something that’s too bizarre, takes too lengthy, or would elevate the suspicion of an Institutional Overview Board. That type of stuff has to occur in a basement or a yard, which is why the “paper’ above is, in actual fact, a letter to the editor written by a medical physician on a lark.
* * * My e mail deal with is down by the plant; please ship examples of there (“Helpers” within the topic line). In our more and more determined and fragile neoliberal society, on a regular basis regular incidents and tales of “the communism of on a regular basis life” are what I’m searching for (and never, say, the Purple Cross in Hawaii, and even the UNWRA in Gaza)
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
* * * Trump Transition
“Trump’s casting name as he builds out his administration: TV expertise most popular” [Associated Press]. ” There’s a standard trait that President-elect Donald Trump is clearly prizing as he selects these to serve in his new administration: expertise on tv. Trump loves that ‘central casting’ look, as he likes to name it…. [He’s] working to arrange a extra forceful administration on this time period, and in his eyes, a lot of these individuals occur to intersect with movie star…. The White Home-to-cable information pundit pipeline tends to chop throughout administrations of each events, to some extent. President Joe Biden had three MSNBC contributors on his transition crew and his former press secretary went to the community after she left the White Home. Biden, although, appeared to profession diplomats, longtime authorities staff and army leaders for key posts just like the Protection Division.” • You can argue, I suppose, that the social capital intrinsic to movie star provides these appointments a sure autonomy; they’ll at all times return on cable or safe an “Orange Man Unhealthy”-type ebook deal. In fact, this cuts in opposition to the “loyalist” narrative. Readers, what do you assume?
* * * “Trump reconsiders Treasury Secretary nomination, might not select pro-crypto” [Binance]. • Think about respiratory a sigh of reduction that we’re getting some non-public fairness weasel, and never some crypto bro.
“Elon Musk’s endorsement of a Treasury secretary candidate has reportedly rubbed Trump’s individuals the improper approach” [Fortune]. “Regardless of the obvious unease of some Trump staffers with Musk’s actions, there isn’t a proof that any rift has shaped between Musk and Trump. Musk remains to be spending a lot of his time at Mar-a-Lago, and traveled with Trump to New York Saturday to attend a UFC battle. Whoever turns into Treasury secretary, Musk is prone to work considerably intently with them as a part of his duties with the Division of Authorities Effectivity (DOGE). DOGE will work with the White Home Workplace of Administration and Funds to implement the suggestions of Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Musk has mentioned beforehand he believes it’s potential to chop $2 trillion from the federal funds, although many have been skeptical of this determine.”
* * * “Sweating RFK Jr. Performs Self-Surgical procedure To Extract Large Mac From Abdomen” [The Onion]. • The Dems ginned up a bit of ethical panic about this the opposite day, however fortunately I can eliminate it with a hyperlink to The Onion: As with a lot else.
* * * The Case for Matt Gaetz” [Compact Magazine]. “There are two methods to take a look at the corruption that’s rife in Twenty first-century American life. One view is that reform calls for a saint to reproach the depraved…. The second view is that if we should await an immaculate reformer, reform won’t ever come. So we must assist even clearly flawed people after they tackle the required work of confronting systemic evils.” This speaks nicely of him: “This 12 months, Gaetz took James Poulos and a movie crew from The Blaze on a tour of congressional workplaces whose occupants—together with Republicans—have been violators of Congress’s seldom-enforced guidelines in opposition to insider buying and selling.” And: “Gaetz has been complimentary towards Lina Khan, chairwoman of the Federal Commerce Fee, and the Biden Justice Division’s chief antitrust official, Jonathan Kanter. The New York Publish notes that Google, specifically, is prone to be a spotlight of antitrust consideration in a Gaetz Division of Justice, which could transfer to interrupt up the tech megalith. The identical story quotes Gaetz referring to Large Tech corporations in 2021 as ‘the web’s corridor displays’ with a bias in opposition to conservatives. Gaetz has described himself as a ‘libertarian populist,’ and that characterization is mirrored by his stances on civil liberties and social points.” •
How the Gaetz Ethics report may nonetheless come out if the panel blocks it” [Politico]. “Right here’s a breakdown of what may occur if [Ethics Committee] members vote to not launch the [Gaetz] report, and different methods the investigative findings may see the sunshine of day…. Somebody leaks it to the press: Ethics Committee members and employees don’t take the prospect of a leak evenly, if the panel votes to maintain the report below wraps. A part of that’s wanting to guard the credibility of the panel, however members additionally take an oath, pledging: “I cannot disclose, to any individual or entity exterior the Committee on Ethics, any info acquired in the midst of my service with the Committee, besides as approved by the Committee or in accordance with its guidelines.”… Utilizing the Home ground: Some lawmakers are privately theorizing that, ought to the committee block the discharge of the report, a lawmaker may go to the Home or Senate ground and browse it into the congressional report relatively than leak it to the media…. Sharing it with senators: Even when the Ethics panel doesn’t wish to make the report public, they’ll vote to share it with the Senate Judiciary Committee forward of potential affirmation hearings…. Sober warning: Employees-driven leaks have occurred earlier than, however usually not in a scenario with a lot at stake. Along with shedding a job, there are additionally actual issues of political violence if a employees leaker’s title turned public.” • Hmmm.
* * * “What to find out about Dr. Mehmet Oz, Trump’s choose to steer Medicare and Medicaid” [Associated Press]. “Oz had a web price between $100 million and $315 million, in line with a federal monetary disclosure he filed in 2022, which supplies greenback values in ranges however doesn’t present particular figures.” • Oh.
* * * “Prosecutors request keep in Trump NY case till 2029 as protection plans movement for dismissal ‘as soon as and for all’” [FOX]. “New York prosecutors are requesting a keep till at the very least 2029 in New York v. Trump, because the president’s protection attorneys put together to maneuver to dismiss the case completely. Prosecutors wrote a letter to Choose Juan Merchan on Tuesday, who agreed final week to grant a keep on all deadlines related to the conviction proceedings in opposition to Trump within the closing months earlier than he takes workplace. åMerchan granted the request, which points a keep on all deadlines, together with the Nov. 26 sentencing date, to think about the impact of his election as president. Prosecutors had requested for the pause in proceedings, which they mentioned would permit them to raised consider the affect of Trump’s new standing as president-elect. ‘Because of the election held on November 5, 2024, Defendant’s inauguration as President will happen on January 20, 2025,’ Manhattan District Legal professional Alvin Bragg wrote to Merchan on Tuesday.” And: “Trump’s attorneys have requested that Merchan overturn the responsible verdict, citing the US Supreme Courtroom’s determination that former presidents have substantial immunity from prosecution for official acts in workplace. Trump’s authorized crew argued that sure proof introduced by Bragg and New York prosecutors throughout the trial shouldn’t have been admitted, as they have been ‘official acts.’”
2024 Publish Mortem
Deploy the Blame Cannons!
* * * “NBC’s Kornacki: Republicans Obtain Historic Realignment, 25-Level Shift Amongst Decrease-Earnings Voters Since 2012” [RealClearPolitics]. KORNACKI: “Bear in mind, three straight elections Trump’s been the Republican candidate. So pre-Trump voters below 30 have been going for the Democrats by 23 factors. People with incomes below $50,000, 22 factors for the Democrats. People with out school levels, 4 factors for the Democrats. That’s pre-Trump. What comes out of this election? Have a look at a few of these shifts. The youth vote, that Democratic margin lower greater than in half. Voters below $50,000, now a Republican constituency. Voters with no school diploma, take a look at that shift. Now a core Republican constituency. After which we will speak about race, ethnicity. This will get into that range I discussed a minute in the past. Examine this out. Once more, pre-Trump versus now. The Black vote nonetheless overwhelmingly Democratic, however that’s a 15-point shift. It was once 87 factors for the Democrats, all the way down to 72. How about this? You’ve heard lots about it this week. That is what the numbers appear like. Hispanic voters have been 44 factors Democratic earlier than Donald Trump. Now, principally a toss-up constituency. And Asian People, a 32-point shift there as nicely. That’s what’s occurred to the Republican Celebration since Donald Trump turned its customary bearer eight years in the past. This has been the motion.”
Spook Nation
“Somebody accessed recordsdata mentioned to include damaging data about Trump AG-nominee Gaetz, lawyer says” [Associated Press]. “An unauthorized individual gained entry to a file containing confidential testimony from ladies who’ve made allegations about former Rep. Matt Gaetz, Donald Trump’s choose to turn into the following legal professional common, a lawyer mentioned Tuesday. Attorneys concerned in a civil case introduced by a Gaetz affiliate have been notified this week that an unauthorized individual accessed a file shared between attorneys that included unredacted depositions from a lady who has mentioned Gaetz had intercourse along with her when she was 17, and a second lady who says she noticed the encounter, in line with legal professional Joel Leppard.” • Appears odd. Submitting this right here for causes I assume are apparent, regardless of the shortage of proof.
Democrats en déshabillé
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
Transmission: H5N1
“Chicken flu in Canada might have mutated to turn into extra transmissible to people” [Guardian]. “{The teenager} hospitalized with fowl flu in British Columbia, Canada, might have a variation of the virus that has a mutation making it extra transmissible amongst individuals, early knowledge reveals – a warning of what the virus can do that’s particularly worrisome in nations such because the US the place some H5N1 instances aren’t being detected…. Preliminary sequencing of the H5N1 variant sickening {the teenager} confirmed a possible mutation on the genomic spot identified to make individuals extra prone to the virus. That might point out that H5N1 has the aptitude to turn into extra like a human virus, relatively than an avian virus, however it is usually not clear but whether or not this modification is significant and extra harmful to individuals, specialists mentioned. Canadian officers have been conducting blood exams among the many teen’s contacts, they usually anticipate outcomes later this week. They’re additionally awaiting the outcomes of different exams finished over the weekend.” • In the meantime in California:
⚠️Nervous—That is at the very least the third COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION incidence of H5N1 with none animal contact. Identical with the ICU hospitalized case. That is both human-to-human, or possibly lengthy distance airborne transmission from animal to human by some means with out direct contact. Worrisome. https://t.co/a0PDCQQrjj
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 19, 2024
Nicely, it’s not like susceptible individuals congregate in hospitals:
NIH has resumed requiring masking in all affected person care areas and testing for SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A, Influenza B, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) on inpatients. Sonoma County additionally requiring masking. However #HICPAC thinks masks are pointless. Make HICPAC make sense! pic.twitter.com/2xbQUBdAdC
— Judy Stone (@DrJudyStone) November 19, 2024
Elite Maleficence
“The World Is Watching the U.S. Deal With Chicken Flu, and It’s Scary” [New York Times]. “Failure to manage H5N1 amongst American livestock may have international penalties, and this calls for pressing consideration. America has finished little to reassure the world that it has the outbreak contained…. [T]he United States ought to do not forget that the nation the place a pandemic emerges may be accused of not doing sufficient to manage it. We nonetheless hear how China didn’t do sufficient to cease the Covid-19 pandemic. None of us would desire a new pandemic labeled the ‘American virus,’ as this could possibly be very damaging for the US’ status and economic system….I perceive that it’s not simple to steer companies, such because the meat and dairy industries, to permit the testing of all of their animals and staffs, and to make that knowledge public rapidly. However I additionally know that in the long run, doing so protects lives, lessens financial harm and creates a safer world. The world can’t afford to gamble with this virus, letting it unfold in animals and hoping it by no means sparks a critical outbreak — or crossing our fingers that its results gained’t be critical in individuals. Time will inform. I hope we aren’t watching the beginning of a brand new pandemic unfold, with each the American and the worldwide communities burying our heads within the sand relatively than confronting potential hazard.”
“Australian COVID inquiry promotes “let it rip,” denounces public well being measures” [WSWS]. “The report of a authorities commissioned inquiry into Australia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was launched on Tuesday…. The inquiry spanned a 12 months. The report runs to 892 pages. It’s, nonetheless, fully nugatory from an analytical or scientific standpoint, including nothing to an understanding of pandemics and public well being normally, or the expertise of COVID-19 specifically. As a substitute, the report is a crude promotion of the profit-driven “let it rip” insurance policies that persist to this present day. It’s noteworthy solely as one more marker of the assault on public well being and the rights of the inhabitants that this homicidal program has entailed…. With reference to lockdowns and different measures similar to masks mandates, they complain: ‘Effectiveness was inferred from general reported case numbers, however this can be a very restricted method to analysis and didn’t reveal which [restrictions] have been efficient and whether or not the stringency settings have been proper.’ These unqualified assertions, denouncing measures that saved lives, are all of the extra putting, on condition that the report notes, ‘Australia would have had between 15 and 46 occasions the variety of deaths if it had skilled the identical COVID-related loss of life charges as comparable nations like Canada and Sweden.’ That’s, however for the measures that the report denounces, lots of of hundreds, or much more than one million individuals would have perished out of a inhabitants of 25 million.” • If these GBD psychos safe a lodgment within the Trump Administration, that is precisely what they are going to do, or attempt to do, right here. And eugencist permits like Zients, Jha, Walensky, and Cohen will do all the pieces they’ll to helkp them. Commentary:
Do now we have any Australians within the readership who want to share their views?
Some kinda loss of life cult, or what?
Extra optimistic than I’m. From the UK:
May very well be one thing to this:
Sure, there are individuals who eat brunch. And there are
individualsentities who serve brunch.
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
Wastewater | |
This week[1] CDC November 11 | Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week): |
|
|
Variants [3] CDC November 9 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 9 |
|
|
Hospitalization | |
★ New York[5] New York State, knowledge November 18: | Nationwide [6] CDC November 14: |
|
|
Positivity | |
Nationwide[7] Walgreens November 18: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 16: |
|
|
Vacationers Knowledge | |
Positivity[9] CDC October 28: | Variants[10] CDC October 28: |
|
|
Deaths | |
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2: |
|
|
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others aren’t up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Excellent news!
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* nonetheless common. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has finished an excellent job normalizing successive waves of an infection.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Really improved; it’s now one of many few charts to point out your complete course of the pandemic to the current day.
[7] (Walgreens) Down.
[8] (Cleveland) Down.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Down.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Now XEC.
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity immediately.
Retail: “Walmart is feeling jolly as the vacation buying season approaches” [Wall Street Journal Logistics Report]. “The nation’s largest retailer says U.S. comparable gross sales, these from shops and digital channels in operation for at the very least 12 months, rose a higher-than-expected 5.3% within the newest quarter. The WSJ’s Sarah Nassauer reviews that the expansion was propelled by buyers shopping for groceries, house items and toys, an indication that spending is off to a stable begin heading into the busiest buying season of the 12 months. Walmart’s revenue elevated on decrease e-commerce supply prices, fewer reductions and better income from promoting. The retailer mentioned it lower its web supply price per order within the U.S. by about 40% within the quarter.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing to put off roughly 2,200 Washington staff 5 days earlier than Christmas” [FOX]. “The layoffs are a part of the debt-heavy U.S. planemaker’s plan to chop 17,000 jobs, or 10% of its international workforce, in line with a union official and federally required filings posted on Monday.” • That’ll educate ’em.
At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 49 Impartial (earlier shut: 50 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 65 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 20 at 11:09:45 AM ET.
Thanksgiving Pre-Recreation Festivities
“File 80 million People anticipated to journey for Thanksgiving vacation, trade group says” [Reuters]. • We’ll see what the charts appear like afterwards.
Healthcare
“Add 11 years to your life? Science says it’s so simple as a each day stroll” {StudyFinds]. “In what is likely to be the most effective return on funding since Bitcoin’s early days, scientists have found that each hour of strolling may yield as much as six hours of extra life. Not like cryptocurrency, nonetheless, this funding is assured by the legal guidelines of human biology. An thrilling modeling research reveals that if each American over the age of 40 was as bodily energetic as probably the most energetic quarter of the inhabitants, they may anticipate to reside an additional 5 years on common…. Examine authors analyzed knowledge from the Nationwide Well being and Dietary Examination Survey (NHANES), specializing in People aged 40 and older who wore exercise displays for at the very least 4 days. Not like earlier research that relied on individuals’ reminiscence and honesty about their exercise ranges, these displays supplied goal measurements of each motion all through the day. The outcomes confirmed a putting ‘diminishing returns‘ impact within the relationship between bodily exercise and longevity. The best advantages have been seen among the many least energetic people: transferring from the bottom exercise quarter to the second-lowest required simply 28.5 minutes of extra strolling per day however may add 6.3 years to life expectancy. Meaning each hour of strolling for this group translated to an additional 6.3 hours of life — a formidable return on funding. As individuals turned extra energetic, the extra advantages per hour of exercise decreased however remained important.” • Right here is the research, which pleasingly confirms my priors. Maybe some form reader can check out the methodology.
Gallery
“What a carve up! Playful, intricate Japanese leaf artwork – in footage” [Guardian]. “Virtually day-after-day for the previous 5 years, the Kanagawa-born artist Lito has drawn a picture on to a leaf – normally a jaunty scene from the animal world involving, say, a biker-dude rabbit or a frog in a cellphone field – and carved it out with a scalpel earlier than posting {a photograph} to social media. A painstaking course of, it nonetheless fits Lito’s “propensity to commit lengthy hours to detailed work” – a prognosis of ADHD aged 30 was what prompted him to give up his company job and begin carving leaves for a residing. And a residing it’s: he’s offered 300,000 copies of his leaf-art books so far and reveals his work all through Japan. The mix of playful Studio Ghibli-esque creativeness and exhaustive consideration to element is central to the attraction.” • For instance:
Class Warfare
“Trash,” eh?
Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From expat2uruguay:
expat2uruguay writes: “I’ve this begonia leaf that I used to be going to attempt to propagate utilizing a method I’ve solely examine. The approach requires pinning down the injured components of the leaf or maybe masking them with rocks, so using steel jacks is my very own innovation right here.” Can readers touch upon this method?
Type readers, the inventory of plant footage remains to be too scant for consolation… .
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism web site. For those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
For those who hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on find out how to ship a test. Thanks!