2:00PM Water Cooler 12/5/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Tune of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Edith G. Learn Wildlife Sanctuary, Westchester, New York, United States. “Superb repertoire of different species’ songs woven into this tune. This mockingbird was imitating a number of species together with cardinal, robin, killdeer, Carolina Wren, and Tufted Titmouse. It’s unclear whether or not it was additionally imitating a Tune Sparrow, as a result of one was very close by and its voice can be heard on the audio.”

In Case You May Miss…

1. UnitedHealthcare assassination: Extra particulars emerge.
2. Boeing dropped a satellite tv for pc, says new whistleblower.
3. Nietzsche’s typewriter.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Assassination Makes an attempt (Plural)

“Secret Service director vows reorganization as members of Congress press him over main lapses” [Associated Press]. “In the course of the listening to, Rowe was repeatedly requested by flabbergasted lawmakers how issues so apparent in hindsight had been allowed to occur, together with communications difficulties between the Secret Service and native regulation enforcement that assist safe occasions [in Butler, PA] and the constructing overlooking the rally being left unprotected.” And: “Trump has not but named his decide to guide the company.”

“Jeffries stays out of the best way as Dems mutiny in opposition to senior panel leaders” [Politico]. The deck: “Democrats are more and more anxious concerning the incoming Trump administration and are not bowing to seniority guidelines to choose their committee leaders.” About time. Extra: “Rep. Raul Grijalva of Arizona, 76, introduced this week that he would step down from the highest Democratic spot on the Pure Assets Committee. Rep. Jerry Nadler of New York, 77, dropped his bid to proceed main Democrats on Judiciary within the face of a tricky problem from 61-year-old Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland. And Rep. David Scott of Georgia, 79, is going through a number of challenges for the highest Democratic spot on the Agriculture Committee. It’s akin to a mutiny, particularly given Democrats’ typical deference to seniority in who leads panels. However social gathering lawmakers are more and more anxious concerning the incoming Trump administration and full GOP management of Congress. Many really feel it’s essential to have leaders who’re confirmed fighters and might successfully push again on Republican priorities like harsh limits on authorized immigration. It echoes the argument many used after they referred to as on President Joe Biden to step off the ticket over the summer time. On the middle of all of it is Jeffries, the minority chief, and his management staff, who additionally skipped the seniority line in some ways after they rose to the highest ranks two years in the past. They’ve publicly stayed out of it, loath to face in the best way of lawmakers who, like them, chafed on the social gathering’s strict adherence to seniority.” And: “”The caucus will information these sorts of discussions,” mentioned Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, the No. 3 Home Democrat. “We’re assured that right now it’s going to take a Democratic Caucus that’s firing on all cylinders to push again in opposition to extremism and to .’” • Ick. Mush.

“Scoop: Pelosi backing “some” Home Dem committee ousters” [Axios]. • Perhaps, for instance–

“Scoop: AOC anticipated to run for high Oversight Committee position” [Axios]. “Ocasio-Cortez mentioned Tuesday she is ‘’ within the position and has had ‘numerous outreach from colleagues’ a few run. She instructed reporters on Wednesday morning that she has ‘spoken with many members of our caucus, together with a number of members of management’ concerning the race. Ocasio-Cortez additionally laid out her imaginative and prescient for the panel, saying she needs to make use of it as a ‘communicative platform for public training’ and a automobile for ‘actual legislative work and investigatory work.’” • And talking of AOC:

With Governor Delgado having lastly enacted the particular grasp’s court-ordered redrawn map, we will now map the 2028 Presidential election by New York’s new districts

Districts eradicated:
NY-10 (Hoylman)
NY-14 (Ocasio-Cortez)
NY-22 (Tenney)

Posting information on key races beneath pic.twitter.com/fm30EOypjF

— Lily within the Metropolis (@LilyArtemisTO) December 5, 2024

* * *

“Democrats are checked out after their drubbing — right here’s how they will reengage” [The Hill]. “Democrats are tuning away from information networks and social media platforms in numbers which are unimaginable to disregard. MSNBC and CNN noticed their rankings slashed in half as exhausted Democrats tuned out post-election. On Twitter (now X, after its acquisition by Elon Musk), lefty customers have abandoned the platform in droves in favor of competitor Bluesky.” In some unspecified time in the future, the exodus of “lefty [sic] customers” from X (611 million customers) to Bluesky (20 million) will cease. When it does, we’ll have a great studying on what number of Blue MAGA there actually are. Extra: “Print shops are faring even worse, with livid Democrats nonetheless canceling their Washington Publish subscriptions almost a month after proprietor Jeff Bezos spiked the paper’s endorsement of Kamala Harris. One in 10 Washington Publish subscribers have give up the paper since October, blowing a large gap within the paper’s already threadbare earnings. That raises an existential query for media shops and for Democrats: The place will all these disillusioned eyes go?” And: “Democrats had been as soon as masters of the populist message. In the event that they need to rebuild after final month’s electoral catastrophe, they’ll have to reconnect with that a part of their political psyche — quick. ” • They will’t and gained’t. As Thomas Frank reveals in Hear, Liberal!, liberal Democrats hate the working class. Since improved messaging, whether it is to final, implies truly delivering on coverage, they’ll combat improved messaging tooth and nail (as will their rich donors, as we noticed within the Kamala marketing campaign’s refusal to marketing campaign on Lina Khan). Alternatively, after all, the Democrat management might imagine there’s no downside in any respect; just a few thousand votes right here and there and 2028 is virtually within the bag. And naturally, the Democrat management has step by step eviscerated the first course of, so all of the management will really want to do is go right into a smoke-filled room, decide a barely higher candidate than Kamala, and provides them extra runway than 100 days. How laborious might that be?

“Democrats have to take the working class critically and actually” [Salon]. “After which there was the next phrase (or some model of it) that I heard many instances on the bus, the prepare and in my conversations with Uber and Lyft drivers. “Donald Trump could act loopy or be a jerk, however he’s proper about that!….” Donald Trump’s uncooked honesty and lack of a filter or self-censoring are central to his attraction. Many Individuals could disagree with the specifics of what Donald Trump says about immigration, ladies, racial and ethnic minorities, or how he’ll rule when he’s again in energy. However as proven by polls and focus teams, lots of them do like the truth that Trump, in contrast to Kamala Harris and the mainstream information media and different elites, is no less than speaking in a transparent and direct means concerning the issues which are inflicting them nervousness and upset of their each day lives….. To win again their very own base voters — and extra importantly to increase their help amongst independents, undecided voters and people who have dropped out of politics and the nation’s civic life — Democrats have to do a significantly better job of listening to on a regular basis individuals, assembly them the place they’re and taking their issues and company critically. No matter one could take into consideration Donald Trump, his propagandists and different brokers, at this second, they and the MAGAverse are doing a significantly better job of listening to and shaping public opinion and the nationwide narrative and temper than are the Democrats and the legacy information media.” • At first studying, that is one other messaging take. However the listening half isn’t (and I don’t imply a “listening tour.” If there have been such a factor as a twenty first century precinct captain — on-line? — they needs to be doing the listening).

“I Watched the Democratic Collapse in Florida. I Worry It’s Taking place Nationally” [The Bulwark]. “The reality is we bought right here as a result of our model sucks. We are inclined to put voters in numerous buckets—black, Hispanic, younger, homosexual, and so forth.—and deal with these teams like they’re extra progressive than they are surely, and one way or the other distinctive from one another. On the similar time, we’ve made choices to cease speaking to massive chunks of the voters. A few of these choices can’t be mounted. For instance, I want we’d have been extra intentional about molding the Obama operation into one thing extra everlasting for the social gathering to make the most of. Popping out of 2008, somewhat than investing in partisan infrastructure, many in my social gathering—in some circumstances led by the Obama White Home—inspired the event of “long-term progressive infrastructure,” with the concept that not-for-profit organizations might higher deal with political wants, as a substitute of state events. Not solely has this experiment failed on the core organizing degree in states like Florida, nevertheless it has inspired the concept that Democrats are beholden to progressive teams and values. We should always have continued one thing akin to the outdated Howard Dean plan to spend money on all fifty states.” Thanks, Obama! And the conclusion: “[B]asically, we should get again to listening to the median voter.” Listening, but in addition main. The writer has this good metaphor: “Has anybody had to purchase fridge lately? After having earlier had one for twelve years, I’m now on my third in seven—not as a result of the precise fridge is breaking however as a result of all of the ‘sensible’ expertise on my fridge is. Final time I went in, I mentioned, I simply desire a dumb fridge that works. Simply the fundamentals—works for home equipment and for elections.” • Common concrete materials advantages_{MR SUBLIMINAL Socialism} is that “dumb fridge that works” (see FDR. And the CARES Act). Lead the voters there. Don’t fee one other boatload of polling in quest of the legendary “median voter,” recognizable solely in retropect by marketing campaign professionals who, when you had been sharing a post-prandial libation, could be the primary to confess that no person is aware of something.

“Will Democrats “Get in Contact” with Working-Class America?” [John Halpin, The Liberal Patriot]. By Betteridge’s Legislation… “[I]n a complete post-election survey of 4800 working-class voters performed by PPI and YouGov (together with oversamples within the battleground states of AZ, GA, MI, WI, and PA), Republicans outperformed Democrats throughout each indicator of social gathering management and values.” Helpful chart:

Wowsers.

“The Left-Flank Albatross” [Michael Baharaeen, The Liberal Patriot]. “After all, liberals deserve illustration too, and it’s utterly honest to be involved about points like abortion, local weather change, and minority rights. However profitable in politics requires assembly voters the place they’re and catering to the problems they care most about. Harris and her staff could protest that they tried to make the financial system a central focus of her marketing campaign, downplay hot-button matters, and make use of powerful rhetoric concerning the southern border, however none of it resonated with the voters they wanted most. Because the social gathering strikes ahead, it should grapple with this actuality and study from it if they’re to restore their picture and chart a brand new path.” • It’s bizarre for a corporation that calls itself “Third Manner” (cited approvingly within the piece) to maintain pushing a binary (left-right) paradigm (versus, say, right-liberal-left tripolar mannequin). I suppose, for them, the “third means” is rightwards (they’d say they’re chasing the median voter, nevertheless it’s the chasing, and never main, that’s the issue).

Realignment and Legitimacy

“The Combat Has Solely Simply Begun” [The Progressive]. “As soon as upon a time, a majority of U.S. voters rejected a succesful, competent, and clever daughter of Black and Indian immigrants in favor of a diminished, ignorant, racist son of a multimillionaire, proving that the USA remained an excellent nation for outdated, white males.” • That is what passes for “left” evaluation at The Progressive.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Transmission: Covid

“Are flu and COVID excessive now? Right here’s how the season has began” [Alexander Tin, CBS]. Tin is an effective man, however Covid isn’t seasonal. That mentioned: “COVID-19 emergency room visits are ‘low’ or ‘minimal’ in almost all states, after this yr’s late summer time wave of the virus. Ranges of the virus in wastewater are “minimal” in all areas, in comparison with “excessive” ranges round this time final yr. ‘Does that imply that there was sufficient immunity constructed up in that summer time wave that we’re going to not see a winter wave? Does it imply the winter wave goes to return, however be just a little bit later and possibly just a little smaller,’ mentioned [University of North Carolina epidemiology professor Justin Lessler]. Each [Shaun Truelove, associate scientist at Johns Hopkins University’s public health school] and Lessler mentioned one main ‘information hole’ making comparisons to earlier seasons difficult has been the lapse in nationwide COVID-19 hospitalization information throughout the summer time surge. A pandemic-era emergency requirement for well being care suppliers to report COVID-19 hospitalizations lapsed earlier this yr, and solely lately resumed below a brand new rule issued by the Facilities for Medicare and Medicaid Providers. Different components muddying the figures embrace adjustments to how individuals take a look at and search look after COVID-19 infections. One other massive unknown is the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Most circulating variants proper now are a medley of intently associated variants like XEC and KP.3.1.1. ‘We don’t know, like we do for flu, what the common tempo of COVID’s evolution away from our immune system can be, when it settles down,’ Lessler mentioned. Early information launched final month by researchers at The Ohio State College discovered XEC extra infectious in contrast with the guardian variant it shares upstream with KP.3.1.1, however not considerably greater than its siblings. ‘I even have thought it had settled down a bit, after this yr. We’ll see what I feel after the season’s completed. However proper now, I’m rather less positive,’ he mentioned.” • Oh good. Looks as if the perfect indicator could be reviews of coughing on the Mommy blogs, at this level…

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new at this time; all others will not be up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Excellent news!

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* nonetheless well-liked. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has completed an excellent job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Truly improved; it’s now one of many few charts to indicate your complete course of the pandemic to the current day.

[7] (Walgreens) Down.

[8] (Cleveland) Down.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “US preliminary jobless claims rose to 224,000 for the week ending November 30, from 213,000 within the earlier week, above market expectations of 215,000 and marking the very best studying in six weeks. Regardless of this rise, the outcomes nonetheless help the view that the US labor market stays at traditionally robust ranges regardless of the aggressive tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve within the final quarters, including leeway for the central financial institution to gradual the tempo of financial loosening ought to inflation stay stubbornly excessive.”

Employment State of affairs: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers introduced 57,727 job cuts in November 2024, barely increased than 55,597 in October and 45,510 a yr earlier. The Automotive sector introduced essentially the most job cuts (11,506, the very best month-to-month whole since April).”

Manufacturing: “Boeing whistleblower sounds alarm over security at satellite tv for pc manufacturing facility: “They’re not gonna hearken to me till someone dies” [CBS]. “Now, Garriott, 53, says, it’s the lives of lots of of technicians on the Boeing facility the place he has labored for almost three many years that want defending from firm administration. ‘They’ve taken the main focus off high quality, the main focus off the individuals on the ground, they usually’ve put it utterly on revenue and going quick,’ Garriott mentioned in an unique interview with CBS Information senior transportation correspondent Kris Van Cleave. ‘I’m afraid with Boeing within the arms that it’s in now down right here, they’re not gonna hearken to me till someone dies.’ He mentioned efforts by Boeing executives to spice up manufacturing on the firm’s Los Angeles-area army and business satellite tv for pc plant have led to a ‘poisonous tradition’ that has put staff there in peril. — an incident so catastrophic he in contrast it to ‘a airplane falling out of the sky.’ ‘One individual was beneath that satellite tv for pc they usually barely bought out,’ mentioned Garriott, who additionally represents 600 hourly staff as the pinnacle of the native carpenters union. ‘It’s the worst factor that may presumably occur on a website.’” • Boeing dropped a satellite tv for pc????

In all probability wouldn’t even purchase a toilet in one in every of Jeff’s mansions, however each little bit helps!

Tech: Yo, Elon:

Tech: “Federal Courtroom Says Dismantling A Telephone To Set up Firmware Isn’t A ‘Search,’ Even If Was Accomplished To Facilitate A Search” [TechDirt]. “[T]he narrative says the iPhone was ‘inoperable’ (to make use of HSI’s personal phrases). However the DHS despatched it out to a ‘companion forensic laboratory’ (I’m going to imagine this was the FBI), which was in a position to lastly acquire entry to the telephone by: …changing its circuit board and re-flashing the machine’s firmware. Now, that appears just like the form of factor not lined or thought of by earlier case regulation or the unique warrant request. That is one thing else. That is one other authorities social gathering extensively modifying seized property to make it extra receptive to phone-cracking efforts. One would suppose a court docket would should be apprised of this chance earlier than it grew to become a actuality, if for no different motive than the unique warrant solely licensed a search, not the literal cracking of a mobile phone (or its casing, no less than) to switch a circuit board and set up new firmware. I feel the defendant raises a great level. However I additionally suppose, given the dearth of precedent, the court docket isn’t utterly fallacious to rule that reviving a tool so it may be searched isn’t truly a search below the Fourth Modification. To place it in different bodily phrases, no court docket would imagine pulling a automotive out of the water after dredging a lake could be a search, even when the recovered automobile was searched pursuant to a search warrant.” • Hmm.

As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 58 Greed (earlier shut: 57 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 5 at 1:18:31 PM ET.

Gallery

Ka-ching:

Healthcare

Extra on the UnitedHealth taking pictures:

Extra on the gun:

The alleged shooter:

The bike:

Sizzling take (1):

Sizzling take (2):

About these bullet casings:

Perhaps sometime we’ll discover the true killer:

Class Warfare

“UnitedHealthcare CEO’s killing lays naked rising safety dangers going through well being care leaders” [Stat News]. “The killing of Brian Thompson, the CEO of the insurance coverage division of UnitedHealth Group, offered a window into the vitriol that distinguished well being care leaders have been going through…. A longtime UnitedHealth government who left the corporate about 10 years in the past mentioned the corporate’s executives generally obtained threats from individuals with grievances about UnitedHealth’s protection insurance policies. The manager, who requested to stay nameless to debate a delicate matter, mentioned unauthorized individuals would come to the corporate’s sprawling headquarters within the Minneapolis suburb of Minnetonka and attempt to enter the buildings the place executives’ places of work are situated. Years in the past, workers entered the buildings utilizing their badges, however the firm added safety checkpoints on the bottom ground when the threats grew to become extra widespread.” • So the issue’s been festering a very long time… What a shock! And the headline: Thompson was not a “healthcare chief”; he was an insurance coverage government, some would say the very reverse. Additional, the airport bookstore enterprise section-style “chief” is, as ever, vacuous and noxious. Use the title, “CEO,” or the generic, “executives.” I learn loads of accounts within the on-line Covid neighborhood who’re a thousand instances the “chief” Thompson putatively was, and doubtless wouldn’t even use that phrase to explain themselves. Sheesh.

“The Stunning New Historical past of Horse Domestication” [Scientific American]. “Students have lengthy sought to know how the distinctive partnership between people and horses bought its begin. Till lately, the standard knowledge was that horses had been step by step domesticated by the Yamnaya individuals starting greater than 5,000 years in the past within the grassy plains of western Asia and that this growth allowed these individuals to populate Eurasia, carrying their early Indo-European language and cultural traditions with them.” However: “New genomic analyses led by Pablo Librado of the Institute of Evolutionary Biology in Barcelona and Orlando point out that the ancestors of recent home horses originated within the Black Sea steppes round 2200 B.C.E., almost 2,000 years later than beforehand thought. Though we don’t but know precisely the main points of their preliminary domestication, it’s clear based mostly on the timing that these horses belonged to post-Yamnaya tradition. Patterns within the historical genomes recommend that within the early centuries of domestication, the horse cultures of the western steppe had been selectively breeding these animals for traits comparable to energy and docility.” • Fascinationg element on archeological proof. Nicely price a learn.

“How Typing Reworked Nietzsche’s Consciousness” [MIT Press]. “Amid all this hubbub of opinion and analysis into the person and his concepts, nonetheless, hardly anybody has commented on, or sought to clarify, one other facet of Nietzsche: his productiveness, and the way it modified throughout his profession due to his adoption of a brand new writing expertise. Take into account this: Nietzsche wrote 4 books between 1870 and 1881, or nearly one each three years, which is fairly good. After 1881, nonetheless, he managed to ship 10 manuscripts to his writer within the seven years to 1888, whereupon he grew to become too in poor health to put in writing any longer. That was a ebook and a half per yr, which is de facto good. By 1881 Nietzsche had turn out to be nearly blind, an infirmity that may certainly have hampered his longhand writing. How did he handle to enhance his work price? What he did was one thing seemingly out of character, given his views on modernity and science: He purchased a typewriter. To be exact, he bought a top-of-the-line moveable Malling-Hansen writing ball, which was despatched specifically to him from its inventor in Copenhagen.” And: “The sudden mechanical punctuated strike of the typewriter contrasted starkly with the ruminative movement of the pen; the typewriter inspired a binary determination, to depress the important thing or not; whereas the pen with its retailer of liquid ink, held by floor pressure within the nib, or in a small reservoir within the fountain pen, was a extra latent and nonmachinic expertise….. The German thinker of expertise Friedrich Kittler has claimed that the analog typewriter normally was helpful for sure types of thought: the temporary, the succinct, the varieties that thrive on concision and quickness…. As Kittler noticed it, a celebrated Nietzschean model comprising sustained reflection, lengthy sentences, and complicated reasoning had modified ‘from arguments to aphorisms, from ideas to puns, from rhetoric to telegram model.’ Nietzsche was an early adopter of the expertise. He took it to the heady realms of Continental philosophy and — if we contemplate his immense affect — started to alter it by a artistic thoughts that was reshaped by the keys that had changed the pen.” • Additionally effectively price a learn. (In my very own expertise, the pc enabled me to end the work, just like the typewriter (and the pen earlier than that).