By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Fowl Music of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Southards Pond Park, Suffolk, New York, United States. “Three track bouts. Singing from the roof of a home adjoining to the park. Mimicry consists of Belted Kingfisher, Northern Flicker, and Carolina Wren.” “Bouts!”
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
- Warren v. Musk.
- Democrat gerontocrats
- Mangione charged with terrorism.
- Fowl flu, the primary extreme case.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Trump Transition
Warren asks for conflict-of-interest guidelines overlaying Musk” [The Hill]. • She’s proper on the deserves, after all. How is an oligarch not conflicted, by definition, since they, by their actions or non-actions, are able to affecting the complete financial system? Elon responds:
Elon: “My platform is a official information supply! It is legitimater than all these so-called ‘legacy media’ retailers!”
Additionally Elon: “Hey have a look at the insulting image I made with my platform! Senator Warren is Pocahontas, har har! 🤣🤣 Please give me consideration! 😭😭” https://t.co/Qt0UcM642g
— Lee Crawford (@Vampire337) December 17, 2024
A brutally apparent advert hom, after all. Tactically, nevertheless, it’s extremely unlucky that the Democrat standard-bearer on Elon’s oligarch-style conflicts is the type of DEI-beneficiary assured to get each conservative knee jerking:
Again in 1996, a spokesman for Harvard Regulation Faculty rebutted claims that the varsity had no minority girls on the college by noting that Elizabeth Warren was Native American pic.twitter.com/7zGjXAlQLY
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) December 18, 2024
And:
“The Texas bar registration card is critical, amongst different causes, as a result of it removes any doubt that Warren straight claimed the identification.”https://t.co/IHV47Q1LZY
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) December 18, 2024
We went over all this again in 2016, when the unimpeachable high-minded quondam Republican Warren was stabbing Sanders within the again — not that I’m bitter — however suffice to say that one is barely a Cherokee — the tribe to which Warren claimed to belong — if the tribe admits you, and Warren was by no means admitted. Warren offers each look of getting climbed to her eminence at Harvard Regulation Faculty on their (non-white) backs, precisely what inflames, say, half the nation and distracts from the official situation Warren raises. Too dangerous the Democrats can’t do higher of their spokespersons, however right here we’re.
Democrats en déshabillé
* * * Democrats’ 5 Methods for Coping With Trump 2.0″ [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “Some Democrats are so totally impressed by the present energy of the MAGA motion they’re selecting to give up to it in vital respects. The prime instance is Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, the onetime fiery populist politician who’s now changing into conspicuous in his want to confess his get together’s weaknesses and snuggle as much as the brand new regime…. It’s most likely germane to Fetterman’s conduct that he might be up for reelection in 2028, a presidential-election yr in a state Trump carried on November 5.” And: “Different Democrats are being way more selectively pleasant to Trump, looking for ‘frequent floor’ on points the place they consider he might be cross-pressured by his rich backers and extra standard Republicans. Like Fetterman, these Democrats — together with Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — have a tendency to come back from the progressive wing of the get together and have longed chafed on the centrist financial insurance policies superior by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and, to some extent, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. They’ve talked about strategically encouraging Trump’s ‘populist’ impulses on such points as credit-card curiosity and big-tech regulation, partly as a matter of forcing the brand new president and his congressional allies to place up or shut up. So the thought is to push off a discredited Democratic Institution, not less than on financial points, and both accomplish issues for working-class voters in alliance with Trump or show the hollowness of his ‘populism.’… On the different finish of the spectrum, some centrist Democrats are pushing off what they understand as a discredited progressive ascendancy within the get together, particularly on culture-war points and immigration…. From a strategic standpoint, these militant centrists seem to check a 2028 presidential marketing campaign that may take again the voters Biden received in 2020 and that Harris misplaced this yr.” However lastly: “Historic precedents point out very excessive odds that Democrats can flip the Home in 2026, bringing to a comparatively fast finish to any Republican legislative steamroller on Trump’s behalf and signaling good vibes for 2028.” • So, stand pat.
“What Occurred to the Democratic Celebration?” (evaluation) [The New Repunblic]. This caught my eye, on rival pollsters Stanley Greenberg and Douglas Schoen: “For [historian Timothy Shenk in Left Adrift, these two men—bitter rivals for clout and clients in the retooling Democratic Party of the Clinton era—understood better than many traditional New Dealers in the party’s leadership caste that a massive, if slow-moving, political realignment was under way: the party’s abandonment of its traditional working-class base and its embrace of a professional, highly educated elite…. Greenberg, who came of political age during Eugene McCarthy’s incendiary anti-war presidential campaign in 1968, accepted this political shift as it gained traction in the Reagan era. But he did so from a defensive posture, seeking to persuade candidates and clients to echo vintage Democratic populist appeals in a last-ditch bid to arrest the dealignment of working-class voters from the party. Meanwhile, Schoen, a scion of Manhattan privilege, cheerfully welcomed the shift as the new consensus delimiting future Democratic agendas, policy goals, and political campaigns…. Schoen, for his part, had no misgivings about the party giving up on the working class, white or not. An early and enthusiastic adopter of Margaret Thatcher’s famous pronouncement on the neoliberal dispensation—”There is no alternative”—Schoen and his consulting partner, Mark Penn (who would later serve as chairman of Hillary Clinton’s disastrous 2008 presidential campaign), built up an influential and wildly profitable Beltway franchise for political and corporate clients that also advanced their own political preferences.” • There’s actually some analysis in the piece that treats “the working class” as dynamic….
“The mechanized hum of another world” [Closed Form]. “Manner again initially of the Industrial Revolution that began humanity down this disastrous path, a man by the identify of Friedrich Engels (who could be very acquainted to anybody that has been studying this text) coined a neat little time period to explain a phenomenon explicit to the rising industrial-technical group of life. The time period, which can even be extraordinarily acquainted to readers of this text or Nate’s, is social homicide. Through an extended evaluation of the Marxian idea of ‘mute compulsion’ elaborated lately in a e book by Søren Mau (and coated by yours actually on this submit), we will present straightforwardly that social homicide points from what Ted Kaczynski would possibly name the technological group of society, and which I might name the ‘guidelines of the sport’ of capitalism itself. By means of engaged on this text, I’ve began to theorize social homicide as a subcategory of structural violence, one that may function a theoretical foundation for a lot of relatively adrift ideas in public well being reminiscent of so-called ‘well being disparities.’ Social homicide helps us describe actually-existing inhabitants well being and floor it conceptually in a capitalist political financial system, be it world or nationwide (or native). Certainly one of these points of inhabitants well being that social homicide helps us make sense of is medical health insurance – in truth, I’m planning a complete submit about medical health insurance, qualitatively, as a social determinant of well being, so keep tuned for that.” • Vital! (Two inquiries to interrogate “social homicide” with: Who and what are literally murdered? And the way does this differ from the operation fo Rule #2?)
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Luigi Mangione Charged With Terrorism in Killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO” [New York Magazine]. “Luigi Mangione was charged with first-degree homicide and second-degree homicide as an act of terrorism, amongst different counts, in an indictment introduced by Manhattan district legal professional Alvin Bragg on Tuesday.” Sure, that Alvin Bragg, who little question has the Governor’s mansion in his sights.
“The Wildest Expenses in Accused UHC Shooter’s Indictment” [The New Republic]. “It’s unclear how precisely Mangione’s alleged crime was meant to ‘affect the coverage of a unit of presidency,’ which firms reminiscent of UnitedHealthcare aren’t, or ‘intimidate’ the civilian inhabitants. Quite, Mangione’s alleged act appeared to have been deliberate to focus on a particular class of people who revenue exorbitantly off the struggling of the civilian inhabitants. ‘The ruling class is treating killing one in every of their very own, with the motive being associated to the evils of our well being care system, as a essentially totally different act than in case you or I have been to be murdered,’ wrote journalist J.P. Hill on X Tuesday.”
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
Transmission: H5N1
<“Well being officers say Louisiana affected person is first extreme fowl flu case in US” [Associated Press]. “An individual in Louisiana has the primary extreme sickness attributable to fowl flu within the U.S., well being officers stated Wednesday. The affected person had been involved with sick and useless birds in yard flocks, the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention stated. Company officers didn’t instantly element the individual’s signs…. The CDC confirmed the Louisiana an infection on Friday, however didn’t announce it till Wednesday. It’s additionally the primary U.S. human case linked to publicity to a yard flock, the company stated…. Did the Louisiana affected person have pre-existing situations that made her or him extra prone to sickness? Is the individual on a ventilator? The CDC deferred these and different questions in regards to the affected person to state well being officers, who didn’t instantly reply.” • Due to course.
“CDC Confirms First Extreme Case of H5N1 Fowl Flu in the USA” (press launch) [CDC]. “This case underscores that, along with affected business poultry and dairy operations, wild birds and yard flocks additionally generally is a supply of publicity….. Because of this yard flock house owners, hunters and different fowl fanatics must also take precautions. One of the simplest ways to stop H5 fowl flu is to keep away from publicity each time attainable. Contaminated birds shed avian influenza A viruses of their saliva, mucous, and feces. Different contaminated animals might shed avian influenza A viruses in respiratory secretions and different bodily fluids (e.g., in unpasteurized cow milk or ‘uncooked milk’).” • Keep away from contact, use PPE, don’t contact contaminated surfaces or supplies. NOTE I’m not recalling a case of fowl flu transmitted by uncooked milk, repellent and damaging although I discover the uncooked milk grift.
Testing and Monitoring: Wastewater
Some modelers are calling a winter Covid “surge” proper now. Some remarks. First, I don’t use graphs like these beneath as a result of I don’t regard them as actionable; I exploit the CDC maps as a result of they’re higher capable of reply questions like “Ought to I’m going to see Grandma in Wichita this Christmas?” or “Ought to I take that ski trip in Colorado in January?” Additional, my Covid protocols are fixed; I wouldn’t fluctuate them by the fluctuations within the graph in any case. Additional, I object to calling a surge earlier than it’s seen:
You’ll discover that the “surge” on this chart is all projection. Properly, I’ve demonstrated previously that CDC projections aren’t essentially dependable; and I don’t view different fashions as any higher; see Closed Type. So I might advocate reserving the time period “surge” for an really oberved occasion of some scale, and never a projection to date scaled to a ripple primarily based on previous occasions, as proven on this brutally and shamefully truncated CDC chart:
That Scranton Joe; he can surge with the perfect of ’em!
TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts
Lambert right here: Walgreen’s positivity hasn’t gone up, nevertheless it hasn’t gone down, both.
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC December 9 | Final week[2] CDC (till subsequent week): |
|
|
|
| Variants [3] CDC December 7 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 7 |
|
|
|
| Hospitalization | |
| ★New York[5] New York State, information December 16: | Nationwide [6] CDC December 12: |
|
|
|
| Positivity | |
| Nationwide[7] Walgreens December 16: | ★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic December 14: |
|
|
|
| Vacationers Information | |
| Positivity[9] CDC November 25: | Variants[10] CDC November 25: |
|
|
|
| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20: |
|
|
|
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new right this moment; all others aren’t up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Seeing somewhat extra purple, however nothing new at main worldwide hubs. Curiously, Calculated Danger is watching wastewater too.
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has finished an awesome job normalizing successive waves of an infection.
[4] (ED) A bit uptick.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward development since, nicely, Thanksgiving.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
There aren’t any official statistics of attention-grabbing right this moment.
Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing MoM” [Industrial Production]. “Industrial manufacturing in the USA fell by 0.1% from the earlier month in November of 2024 to increase the 0.4% contraction in October, and contrasting with market expectations of a 0.2% rise. The outcome was in line with different surveys that pointed to softness in US manufacturing, unveiling the sector’s wrestle forward of potential tariffs by President-elect Trump subsequent yr.”
Capability: “United States Capability Utilization” [Trading Economics]. “Capability utilization within the US fell to 76.8% in November 2024, the bottom studying since April 2021, from a downwardly revised 77% in October and beneath forecasts of 77.3%. The speed is now 2.9 share factors beneath its long-run common.”
Manufacturing: “One Boeing manufacturing unit has been protected from layoffs and is about to begin hiring” [Quartz]. “Though Boeing (BA) has been gradual to restart manufacturing of the planes constructed by its unionized workforce and has been laying lots of them off amid a yr of struggles, the corporate introduced it might be making a giant funding in a non-unionized plant. The planemaker stated final week that it might be sinking $1 billion within the South Carolina plant the place it builds 787 Dreamliners and creating 500 jobs there.”
In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 52 Impartial (earlier shut: 56 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 47 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 17 at 1:39:53 PM ET.
Thriller Drones
“The Nice Drone Panic of 2024” [New York Magazine]. “Public hysterias have at all times surfaced on occasion, within the U.S. and all over the place else that people occur to be. And the drones have been enjoyable, at first. On Reddit, r/UFOs is buzzing with exercise as customers concoct authorities conspiracies and dream of alien incursions from outer house. However there’s at all times an underbelly to contagions of this kind. Take into account the nice drone panic of 2024 alongside different developments, and it appears to be like like an indication of deeper social dysfunction. America is fearful, even paranoid; it has simply reelected Trump, a vengeful determine who admires dictators and strongmen and seeks retribution towards liberals and the broader world order they symbolize. Conspiratorial pondering is just not a brand new phenomenon within the U.S., however it’s a hallmark of the MAGA motion, and Trump’s rise empowers a category of grifters who prey on ignorance and worry.” • NJ is, after all, a Blue state.
Information of the Wired
Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are effective! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SV:
SV writes: “Bubbler on African Basil.” Undecided I perceive “bubbler.” That is 2:00pm, not 4:20.
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism web site. In case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
In case you hate PayPal, you may e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will provide you with instructions on methods to ship a test. Thanks!
