The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index is out, 2.1% m/m annualized (2.6% y/y):
Determine 1: Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (daring blue), civilian employment adjusted utilizing CBO immigration estimates (orange), manufacturing manufacturing (crimson), private earnings excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve by way of FRED, BEA 2024Q3 third launch, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12/2/2024 launch), and writer’s calculations.
Of the above, solely private earnings ex-transfers (gentle inexperienced) is a NBER BCDC key collection (BCDC key collection proven right here).
A favourite indicator of mine is heavy truck gross sales.
Determine 2: Heavy truck gross sales, 000’s (blue, left log scale), year-on-year development charge (tan, proper scale). Supply: BEA by way of FRED, and writer’s calculations.
It’s onerous to see whether or not this means recession, despite the fact that we’re previous an area peak. For context, right here’s the evolution of those collection earlier than the final two recessions.
Determine 3: Heavy truck gross sales, 000’s (blue, left log scale), year-on-year development charge (tan, proper scale). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BEA by way of FRED, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
On the premise of the y/y development charge, you didn’t assume we have been headed to recession in 2019, then you definately shouldn’t assume we’re in 2024.
