2:00PM Water Cooler 1/16/2025 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, brunch ran disgracefully late as we speak, and so I’ll attempt to ship a not-disgracefully skinny Water Cooler, but it surely received’t be instantly. Within the meantime, discuss amongst yourselves! –lambert

Hen Tune of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Sully Woodlands, Fairfax, Virginia, United States. I swear I hear an airplane, someplace within the combine.

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

1. Treasury nominee Bessent underneath hearth?
2. RedNote’s second to cross?
3. Infantry in battle.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“Why Biden Might Matter” [David Leonhardt, New York Times]. “one main a part of Biden’s agenda has an honest probability of surviving. It was the concept that animated a lot of the laws he signed — specifically, that the federal authorities ought to take a extra energetic function in each aiding and regulating the non-public sector than it did for a lot of the earlier half-century. This concept has but to accumulate a easy title. The historian Gary Gerstle has referred to as it the tip of the neoliberal order. Felicia Wong and her colleagues on the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal suppose tank, have used the time period ‘a brand new economics.’ Jake Sullivan, a prime Biden adviser, has referred to it as a brand new consensus. I’ve described it as a part of a brand new centrism. The philosophy didn’t originate with Biden, however he meaningfully shifted the nation towards it, first as a candidate in 2020 after which as president. He moved the Democratic Celebration away from a long time of assist for commerce liberalization and imposed tariffs on China. He pursued an industrial coverage to construct up sectors essential to nationwide safety (like semiconductors) or future prosperity (like clear power). And his administration was extra aggressive about restraining company energy than any in a long time, blocking mergers, cracking down on ‘junk charges’ and regulating drug costs…. Trump will certainly undo main components of the Biden agenda, particularly on local weather change and a few elements of company regulation. In different methods, although, Trump is a part of the shift away from neoliberalism. He romped via the 2016 Republican primaries partly as a result of he was extra hostile to commerce, China and cuts to Medicare and Social Safety than different Republican politicians. A few of Trump’s second-term nominees, together with for labor secretary and head of the Justice Division’s antitrust division, are hardly small-government neoliberals. Neither is Vice President-elect JD Vance.”

Trump Transition

“Treasury choose Scott Bessent and Trump transition staff deny allegations that he prevented taxes” [NBC News]. That makes him good. Extra: “In a brand new memo obtained by NBC Information, Senate Finance Democratic tax employees discovered that Scott Bessent prevented over $950,000 of self-employment taxes. In a overview of the Treasury Secretary nominee’s tax returns from 2021, 2022, and 2023 and his monetary disclosure kind, the committee discovered that Bessent prevented paying $950,182 of SECA taxes (a tax on web earnings from self-employment as a part of financing the social safety and medicare belief funds) and SALT taxes (state and native). Regardless of IRS and Tax Courtroom rulings that will require Bessent to pay SECA taxes, Bessent advised the committee he maintains his place, which is that he was not accountable for SECA taxes on revenue earned via his hedge fund, Key Sq. Group LP, since he was a ‘state regulation restricted accomplice.’ The committee argued Bessent was ‘actively concerned’ in his partnership on the hedge fund, and due to this fact, violated the Division of Treasury’s personal insurance policies.” • I can’t communicate to the tax points concerned. However absolutely that is for the IRS to determine, not the Committee?

* * *

“‘Everybody’s making an attempt to kiss the ring’: Trump’s inauguration devours company money, smashing data” [Politico]. “Not solely are corporations giving far bigger quantities than they did to Trump’s first inauguration — once they didn’t have a agency grasp of the best way to deal with misgivings concerning the mercurial politician — they’re doing so in a much more public style, saying the donations months earlier than they must be reported to federal regulators. ‘The stigma of a Trump donation, which was on the market to some extent eight years in the past, is not there,” mentioned Brian Ballard, a longtime fundraiser for Trump who’s raised cash for the Presidential Inaugural Committee. ‘Who is aware of what’s going to occur two months from now? However for as we speak, up and down, company America is solidly pro-Trump.’”

* * *

“Rep. Rick Crawford anticipated to function Home Intelligence chair” [Politico]. “Johnson on Wednesday eliminated former Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) in a transfer that shocked even some Republicans on the panel. Now he has advised those who he intends to exchange him with [Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.)], a low-key veteran of the Intel panel… Crawford is probably the most senior Republican on the committee and considered as a much less hawkish choose than Turner. He additionally holds extra MAGA-friendly credentials — representing a deep pink district in Arkansas and voting towards Ukraine assist final yr…. However Turner enraged the exhausting proper over the chaotic reauthorization of a sweeping surveillance invoice final yr…. Johnson, who has sole discretion in selecting the panel’s chair, cited Trump as a motive for the ouster.” • Hmm.

[sigh]:

allegedly they’re dividing the rednote servers into mainland and foreigner subsequent week and persons are making actually unhappy posts about it 🙁 pic.twitter.com/668O9Yfd6b

— 🥉 Pipkin Pippa 🔌🐰 Section-Join (@pipkinpippa) January 15, 2025

For a quick shining second, two hitherto totally unmixed social media populations — American, Chinese language — spontaneously interacting was the largest story going (and gave me some hope for humanity). It couldn’t final, sadly. (How unlucky that there was no main American politician with the flexibility to interpret — possibly for the strategic functions of the Democrat celebration, if any — the interactions between Chinese language and American youngsters on social media for a wider viewers, primarily based on repeated, direct expertise. Oh, wait….)

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Search for the Helpers

CR field makers:

Although it’s wonderful we’re nonetheless making CR bins by hand, 5 years into the pandemic. What a market failure!

Maskstravaganza

They suggest when they need to mandate. However:

The Maryland Division of Well being is re-recommending common masking amongst different precautions attributable to rising hospitalizations for COVID and flu.

For those who’re in MD and have hassle with medical doctors masking you may inform them of this new advice. pic.twitter.com/QYsN840epg

— Covid Warning – XEC, KP.3.1.1, LP.8.1, MC.1, LF.7 (@CovidCaution) January 16, 2025

Vaccines

I feel[T]hese arrows are transferring within the unsuitable route (aside from Alaska, Connecticut, and Maine, good job):

Simply extremely miserable that people spent so lengthy making an attempt to invent cures to illnesses, succeeded towards the chances, and that progress is now being erased by a small variety of folks spreading misinformation. pic.twitter.com/Fq0Jn5AiI3

— Michael Thomas (@curious_founder) January 14, 2025

Measles are the “M” in MMR. In different phrases, the fundamentals are underneath assault, not exotics not too long ago added to the schedule.

“They had been warned; Picks and Shovels Chapter One” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “[I]t’s pure and proper that on this planet, there will likely be individuals who need to revisit the obtained knowledge and finest practices for a way we stay our lives, regulate our economic system, and set up our society. However not a license to easily throw out the techniques we depend on. Positive, possibly they’re outdated or pointless, however possibly not. That’s the place ‘Chesterton’s Fence” is available in:

Allow us to say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected throughout a street. The extra trendy sort of reformer goes gaily as much as it and says, “I don’t see using this; allow us to clear it away.” To which the extra clever sort of reformer will do properly to reply: “For those who don’t see using it, I actually received’t allow you to clear it away. Go away and suppose. Then, when you may come again and inform me that you simply do see using it, I could can help you destroy it.”

In different phrases, it’s not sufficient to say, “This precept will get in the best way of one thing I need to do, so let’s throw it out as a result of I’m fairly certain the inconvenience I’m experiencing is worse than the implications of disposing of this precept.” That you must have a principle of how you’ll forestall the harms the precept protects us from when you tear it down…. When RFK Jr kills your children with measles or completely disables them with polio, he doesn’t get to say “I used to be simply inquiring as to the efficacy of a longstanding measure, as is correct and correct.” He was advised why the vaccine fence was there, and he got here up with objectively very silly explanation why that didn’t matter, after which he killed your children. He was warned.” And the identical with Invoice Clinton and Glass-Steagall. Ditto crytpo.

Transmission: Covid

About fashions:

That is why I give choice to knowledge collection which have run a very long time, ideally for the reason that starting of the pandemic: They make the baseline clear. However extra importantly, with Gregory, I deprecate being reactive (this goes for private observe and for an infection management). Set up your protocol and persist with it. If — and by “if” I imply “when” —

An infection Management

HOCL sounds actually attention-grabbing; I wasn’t conscious:

I simply realized some cool information:

Previous information:
Hypochlorous acid (HOCl) is a extremely efficient antimicrobial agent with a impartial to barely acidic pH (4-6), making it safer for pores and skin and surfaces whereas sustaining broad-spectrum exercise. In distinction, bleach is extremely alkaline (pH… https://t.co/dOLmDqQVxW

— Dr. Sean Mullen (@drseanmullen) January 16, 2025

And this lengthy thread:

See the highlighted portion. Nukit is an effective account, and granted, they’re quoting the claims of one other, however aren’t a number of the highlighted claims just a little over-enthusiastic? Like “tumor suppression”?

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new as we speak; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing extra pink and extra orange, however nothing new at main hubs.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has completed an incredible job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) A little bit uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Undoubtedly jumped.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward development since, properly, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Positivity is new, however variants haven’t but been launched.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Preliminary jobless claims within the US rose by 14,000 from the earlier week to 217,000 within the interval ending January eleventh, 2024, firmly above market expectations of 210,000 to mark a pointy bounce from the upwardly revised, 11-month low touched within the first week of January.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US climbed to 44.3 in January 2025, its highest since April 2021, from a revised studying of -10.9 in December and higher than market forecasts of -5. That is the index’s largest month-to-month improve since June 2020….”

Retail: “U.S. Retail Gross sales” [Trading Economics]. “Retail gross sales within the US elevated 0.4% month-over-month in December 2024, the least in 4 months, in comparison with an upwardly revised 0.8% rise in November and under forecasts of 0.6%. Regardless of the slowdown, the figures proceed to level to a strong shopper spending.”

Tech: I assume Boeing’s man wasn’t out there?

It’s so exhausting to search out respectable assist lately!

At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 30 Concern (earlier shut: 29 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 30 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 16 at 1:44:27 PM ET.

Musical Interlude

Prince?!

Zeitgeist Watch

“The Governance Failures That Fed the Los Angeles Wildfires” [Wall Street Journal]. “There’s no disputing Mom Nature’s main function within the devastation. The Santa Ana winds accountable for the wildfires start north and east of Los Angeles within the Nice Basin, which incorporates massive sections of Utah and Nevada. As these winds journey south and west, coursing via the canyons and arroyos of Southern California, they drop in elevation and change into hotter and dryer. That is nature, not man-made local weather change, at work. It’s been occurring since lengthy earlier than Los Angeles was settled. What’s modified isn’t the predictability of the fires however slightly the priorities and competence of these accountable for holding folks protected. Has the underbrush that fuels the fires been cleared? Have the forests been thinned? Are the reservoirs full and operational?… By Mr. Simon’s estimates, there are two faculties of thought on what’s enjoying out in his state proper now. “One is that this was actually uncommon, and no person might have foreseen it. And the opposite college of thought, which I’m a member of, is that you would be able to’t have a complete reservoir that’s fully dry in a extremely populated space with a protracted historical past of fires. There’s a public-policy failure someplace right here. There’s a direct connection between the negligence on the governmental stage—state, native, no matter—and plenty of human struggling.” The larger drawback, nevertheless, could be the insularity of the state’s political institution. Mr. Newsom and Ms. Bass are liberal Democrats, as are many of the lawmakers in Los Angeles and Sacramento. Republicans haven’t received a statewide race in California since 2006″ • Studying this fastidiously, I can agree with all of it besides. That is nature, not man-made local weather change. First, the actual property business, which internet sites and soecs the homes, isn’t a part of “nature” (modulo an especially holistic definition of nature). Second, I don’t suppose something is exempt from “man-made local weather change”, which could, for instance, trigger an out-of-season Santa Ana. However a minimum of we’ve gor some considering in layers, even when from the son of William Simon (Nixon’s Treasury secretary). This appears to not be paywalled, and it’s value a learn.

“Neil Gaiman denies sexual assault allegations: ‘I don’t settle for there was any abuse’” [Los Angeles Times]. “Eight girls accused the 64-year-old British scribe of assault, abuse and coercion in an article printed Monday” (posted right here). Gaiman: ” I’m removed from an ideal individual, however I’ve by no means engaged in non-consensual sexual exercise with anybody. Ever.” • On reconsideration, the angle I got here away with from the Monday article was how very badly the slightly wealthy Gaiman and his spouse Amanda Palmer handled the servants; withheld fee, prpmises not stored…. “They had been careless folks, Tom and Daisy.”

Thread from historian Alexander Burns on his new ebook, Infantry in Battle, 1733-1783: