Some Numeracy About Tariffs on Tequila

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Should you’ve adopted my work, that I’m no fan of tariffs.

I feel it’s essential, although, to not exaggerate their results.

In “Trump’s Tariffs To Tank Tequila,” Cause, January 28, 2025, Eric Boehm writes:

That’s as a result of President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs on imports from Mexico will improve costs and will scale back the supply of some tequilas and mezcals, says Gabe Sanchez, proprietor of the Black Swan Saloon, a legendary cocktail bar in Dallas.

“It’s going to be a really troublesome dialog for us to have with folks once they are available,” Sanchez informed Cause in an interview final week. Whereas his prospects may be used to $15 cocktails, Sanchez says tariffs might probably push menu costs “a lot increased.” (Sanchez’ favourite drink proper now is named “True Romance,” and he was gracious sufficient to share the recipe, which you’ll find on the finish of this text.)

Elsewhere within the article, Boehm writes:

Certainly one of Sanchez’s to-go sorts of mezcal is obtainable from a distributor at $35 per liter proper now, he says. If the total value of a 25 % tariff will get handed down the availability chain, menu costs should improve, or sure drinks should disappear.

“If that jumps to $42 [per liter], we are able to’t make it. We are able to’t put these in cocktails anymore,” Sanchez explains. To remain aggressive with different bars within the space, he is aware of he can’t value cocktails a lot increased than about $15 apiece. “If it jumps at that top, we simply can’t promote it anymore. You already know, any individual isn’t going to purchase a $20 or $22 plus tax mezcal cocktail.”

If the entire tariff had been handed on, the value would really leap from $35 to $43.75. So he underestimated just a little however not a lot.

What would that $8.75 improve translate into per cocktail? On the finish of the article, Boehm offers Sanchez’s recipe. It makes use of 1.5 ounces. There are 33 ounces in a liter. So a bartender who doesn’t waste many drops can get 22 cocktails out of 1 liter. That works out to $8.75 divided by 22 per cocktail, which is 40 cents per cocktail. So the bar might move on the entire elevated value as a result of tariff by pricing the drink at $15.40. It’s laborious to imagine he would increase the value to $20, not to mention $22.

Definitely, a 3% improve within the value of a cocktail would trigger some drinkers to balk. However very many?

 



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