Core CPI surprises (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) on the upside, whereas headline at consensus.
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Determine 1: CPI headline instantaneous inflation (a=4,T=12) (black), core (sky blue), supercore month-on-month (inexperienced), imply month-on-month (pink). Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023). Supply: BLS, Dallas Fed through FRED, BLS, and creator’s calculations.
Recall the CPI inflation is on common (pre-pandemic) about half a share level sooner than PCE inflation. In Determine 2, I plot core measures of CPI and PCE instantaneous inflation.
Determine 2: CPI core instantaneous inflation (a=4,T=12) (sky blue), PCE core instantaneous inflation (tan), Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023). Supply: BLS, BEA through FRED, and creator’s calculations.
Over the interval proven above, the distinction is 0.44 share factors.
