From BOFIT in the present day (translated by Google):
GROWTH IN TOTAL PRODUCTION HAS DECLINED IN RECENT MONTHS
In accordance with the month-to-month estimate revealed by the Russian Ministry of Financial system, the annual progress of Russia’s GDP has clearly slowed down in latest months. The indicator describing the event of the 5 predominant manufacturing sectors of the statistics company Rosstat means that the (seasonally adjusted) quantity of manufacturing has turned to a slight decline.In January, the (seasonally adjusted) manufacturing of each the extractive business and the processing business remained at virtually the identical degree as in latest months. Likewise, the quantity of retail gross sales has remained virtually unchanged for a number of months. The long-standing progress in development additionally appears to have frozen in January.
Right here’s the related graph:
Supply: BOFIT (3/14/2024).
The article can be out there in English tomorrow.
Again in February, Reuters famous:
Russia’s Centre for Macroeconomic Evaluation and Quick-term Forecasting (CAMAC) attributes round 60-65% of elevated industrial output within the final two years to the Ukraine battle.
…
The IMF, whose 2.6% prediction exceeds that of Russia’s personal financial system ministry at 2.3%, mentioned the nation’s tight labour market had supported wage progress. Actual wages have now began falling, CAMAC mentioned.
“Inflation is just too excessive and corporations’ monetary place is not safe sufficient to rapidly elevate wages even within the face of a pronounced labour scarcity,” CAMAC economists wrote.
With actual disposable incomes, the scenario is worse, they mentioned, with pensions and advantages not fairly listed to inflation, which stood at 7.4% in 2023 after an 11.9% studying in 2022.
Unemployment is at a record-low 2.9%, with a whole lot of 1000’s of individuals having fled Russia or joined the navy up to now two years.
In accordance with Rosstat, Russia’s labour productiveness index, considered one of Putin’s key nationwide improvement targets, fell 3.6% year-on-year in 2022, its steepest annual fall because the aftermath of the worldwide monetary disaster in 2009.…
It could be too early to speak of recession, mentioned CAMAC specialists, however there are indicators the financial system is beginning to stall, in sectors resembling automotive manufacturing and development.
The IMF expects Russian progress to fall to 1.1% subsequent yr, effectively under the world’s superior and developed economies.
“I don’t see present financial progress as lasting or qualitative,” mentioned Nadorshin. “I see it as a harbinger of an approaching financial disaster, maybe the primary since 2004, which can not even want an exterior shock.”
