Launched immediately. Continued progress in employment, GDP, primarily based on nationwide developments and outlook from SPGMI (report right here).
Right here’s the employment outlook, now in comparison with November.
Determine 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (daring black), Financial Outlook forecast from February 2024 (crimson), from November 2023 (gentle inexperienced), forecasted primarily based on nationwide forecast of Survey of Skilled Forecasters (gentle blue), all in 000’s, s.a. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Division of Income, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
The SPF implied forecast relies on 2021M07-2024M01 regression in first variations, which signifies each proportion level enhance in US nonfarm payroll employment is related to a 0.76 proportion level enhance in Wisconsin employment (R2 of 0.41). (SPF forecast interpolated to to month-to-month by way of quadratic match.)
The substantial brightening in outlook is highlighted by the hole in employment forecast from the November and February stories. That forecast matches fairly carefully the advert hoc forecast I generated utilizing SPF forecasts for nationwide employment.
Wisconsin GDP has skilled a much less dramatic change in outlook.
Determine 2: Wisconsin GDP (daring black), Financial Outlook forecast from February 2024 (crimson), from November 2023 (gentle inexperienced), forecasted primarily based on nationwide forecast of Survey of Skilled Forecasters (gentle blue), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA, Division of Income, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
The Wisconsin February outlook is barely much less optimistic for 2023, however reveals sooner progress in 2024, roughly matching the connection between US and Wisconsin GDP 2018-19. (For GDP, my forecast relies on a regression estimated in first variations, 2018Q1-2019Q4, Adj-R2 = 0.42).
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