With implications for development and demographic influences. From Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmelzing (AER, 2024):
Supply: Rogoff, Rossi and Schmelzing (AER, 2024).
Contra assertions of a decent and constructive hyperlink between inhabitants development and the true rate of interest, they write:
…mixture inhabitants development charges and actual rates of interest have structurally trended in reverse instructions, aside from the newest a long time. Throughout main inhabitants development shocks, the 2 collection are positively correlated, similar to through the Black Loss of life of 1348-1351, essentially the most dramatic demographic “uncommon catastrophe” placing superior economies because the Renaissance – a interval coinciding with a pointy plunge in international actual charges: however these episodes leading to constructive correlations stay a transparent exception over the long-run.
Undoubtedly meals for thought.
