Coincident index for February out immediately.
Determine 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (darkish blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), actual wages and salaries linearly interpolated, deflated by nationwide chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (pink), coincident index (inexperienced), all in logs 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and creator’s calculations.
The coincident index for February additional reinforces the January surge in exercise.
CROWE February forecast by Junjie Guo signifies 2024Q4 y/y progress (median) at 1.3%. The Wisconsin DoR February forecast is 1.6% y/y.
Pondering again to the Wisconsin GOP’s January assertion:
“From an financial recession to cheerleading for DEI, Governor Tony Evers has dragged Wisconsin down over the course of his tenure. …”
I’ll observe that the Philly Fed’s state-level enterprise cycle courting methodology, relying upon coincident indexes, signifies no recession occurred throughout Governor Evers’ tenure. Whereas this isn’t the one method to decide a state degree recession, the Wisconsin GOP, in its transient assertion, didn’t ahead an evidence for the way they made their willpower.
