Since 2021M01, the CPI has risen 17.3% (log phrases). By comparability, chained CPI and HICP have risen by roughly 16.5%. The PCE deflator has risen solely 14.4% by March 2024 – however these are costs of products and providers produced, not of costs confronted by shoppers.
Determine 1: CPI (blue), HICP (inexperienced), chained CPI (tan), PCE deflator (crimson), supercore CPI (pink), all in logs 2021M01=0. HICP and chained CPI seasonally adjusted by writer utilizing Census X-13/X-11. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, Eurostat, BEA through FRED, BLS, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
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