Are you higher of than you anticipated 4 years in the past? I exploit pattern development 2016-2019 to determine what’s “anticipated”.
Determine 1: Consumption per capita in Ch.2017$, calculated utilizing consumption divided by inhabitants (blue), and 2016-19 (stochastic) pattern (tan). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BEA, Census by way of FRED, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
