By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Tune of the Day
Southern Scrub-Robin, Gluepot Reserve–monitor 8, Unincorporated SA, South Australia, Australia. “Songs from a chook close to the bottom in an space of pretty brief, dense mallee.” I assumed this may be Southern scrub in America. However no, Australia!
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
(1) Trump faces jail, a possibility for fundraising.
(2) Hope Hicks testifies (and cries).
(3) Texas dairies refuse to permit Federal epidemiological area research.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
Oddly, this West Wing maneuver received no play:
RESIGN https://t.co/5ki6Vfw5qP
— worms cited (@christapeterso) Might 3, 2024
“Biden’s Incomplete Industrial Coverage” [Foreign Affairs]. “However however the statistics, many Individuals proceed to really feel that the financial system is just not working for them. Abiding structural weaknesses, together with weak labor legal guidelines, underinvestment in accessible training and well being care, excessive charges of indebtedness, and rising earnings and wealth inequality, imply that the majority Individuals should not experiencing the positive factors of the present restoration. Citing summary numbers to steer a public that’s nonetheless pinching pennies will do little to win over skeptical voters who don’t belief that the system is working for them. To persuade Individuals {that a} second time period will enable them to reap the total advantages of Biden’s new industrial coverage, the administration should make progress on implementing the structural reforms wanted to really increase the U.S. financial system from the “center out and backside up,” because the White Home described its financial ambition in June 2023. It will require a wider and bolder strategy—one which doesn’t shrink back from arresting the heavy financialization of the nation’s company sector.” • The time to do this would have been final yr,
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
RCP Ballot Averages, Might 3:
Nationwide outcomes now shifting Trump’s approach. However a few of the Swing States (extra right here) are actually shifting Biden’s approach, together with Michigan and Wisconsin, which is little doubt why Trump visited them on his break day. Pennsylvania, OTOH, simply leaned to Trump. After all, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, due to this fact dangerous. Now, if both candidate begins breaking in factors, as an alternative of tenths of a degree….
* * * Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Trump Present in Contempt, Threatened With Jail for Violating Gag Order (Once more)” [Rolling Stone]. “‘I discover you in prison contempt for the tenth time.’ The fourth week of Trump’s hush-money trial kicked off on Monday with Choose Juan Merchan as soon as once more ruling that the previous president violated his court-imposed gag order, fining him $1,000 and warning him that continued violations might lead to jail time. Merchan first discovered Trump in contempt of court docket final week, fining him $9,000 for 9 gag-order violations flagged by prosecutors, ‘It seems that the $1,000 fines should not serving as a deterrent,’ Merchan informed Trump on Monday. ‘The very last thing I need to do is to place you in jail. You’re the former president of the USA, and presumably the following president as nicely. There are lots of the explanation why incarceration is really a final resort for you.’ ‘In order a lot as I don’t need to suggest a jail sanction,” Merchan warned. ‘That I’ll, if obligatory.’” • Throwing Trump within the briar patch….
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Donald Trump Is Truly For Actual Near Going to Jail This Time” [New York Magazine]. “The specter of jail time will decide whether or not Trump — who repeatedly violated a gag order in final yr’s civil business-fraud case — is all that involved about staying out of jail. (He did delete offending social-media posts earlier than a Choose Merchan-imposed deadline final week, so he or his crew is able to some restraint.) Both approach, there’s probability he’ll use the prospect of incarceration to make some cash for his marketing campaign.” • Yep. From final week–
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Trump rapidly fundraises off decide’s contempt ruling in hush cash case” [Politico]. “”A Democrat decide JUST HELD ME IN CONTEMPT OF COURT!” learn a Tuesday morning e-mail soliciting donations for Trump Nationwide Committee, a joint fundraising committee that features Trump’s marketing campaign and the Republican Nationwide Committee…. Trump is already a reasonably prolific fundraiser, however moments of authorized jeopardy have pushed a few of his finest fundraising up to now In March, his marketing campaign received an enormous spike in donations after New York Lawyer Common Tish James took a step towards seizing the previous president’s belongings if he couldn’t make bail in a civil case. Final fall, the marketing campaign raked in additional than $4 million in a day after Trump received his mug shot taken in Georgia, the place he faces fees associated to makes an attempt to overturn the 2020 election. Later Tuesday afternoon, Trump’s crew took out adverts on X (previously often known as Twitter), stating {that a} contempt violation isn’t one thing former presidents usually must take care of. ‘This has by no means occurred earlier than in HISTORY!’ the advert mentioned. Trump is ‘maximizing the chance price’ [huh] of the scenario, energizing his base by ‘persevering with to spin the narrative that he’s a sufferer of every little thing that he has completed’ and doubtlessly reactivating small-dollar donors, mentioned Matthew Bartlett, a Republican advisor and former Trump administration appointee. ‘It is likely to be $9,000 in extra court docket charges,’ Bartlett mentioned. ‘However it is going to most likely properly pad the marketing campaign coffers.’”
Trump (R): “Trump, RNC increase over $76 million in April, half from small donors” [Reuters]. “Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s election marketing campaign and the Republican Nationwide Committee mentioned on Saturday that they raised greater than $76 million in April, over half of it from small donors. The month-to-month fundraising haul exceeded the $65.6 million raised in March by Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, and the RNC.”
* * * Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Alvin Bragg’s complete case in opposition to Trump hinges on a disbarred serial perjurer” [Jonathan Turley, The Hill]. • Turley pounding the desk on Cohen. Additionally this: “It isn’t clear what crime Trump was supposedly making an attempt to hide by making “hush-money” funds to former porn actress Stormy Daniels.” • No, it’s clear; New York’s 17-152 (see right here). Now, you could discover Bragg’s principle of the case greater than somewhat odd, however no less than Bragg has put one thing ahead. (Two conspiracies appear to be required required, one for 17-152 and the opposite (?) for the enterprise data violation. I don’t suppose Trump will be charged twice for a similar conspiracy.)
* * * * * * Trump (R): “Trump Marketing campaign Talks Up His Prospects of Flipping Two States” [Bloomberg]. “Trump’s crew mentioned its polling reveals he has an opportunity to win Minnesota and Virginia, in keeping with two donors who heard the presentation at a retreat in Palm Seaside, Florida…. Casting his prospects as doubtlessly increasing the electoral map for Republicans is a part of a technique to steer donors that they’d be putting a successful guess on the previous president. Trump eyed Minnesota as a possible flip in 2020 earlier than shedding the state to Biden, partially as a result of his marketing campaign hit a money crunch in the course of the essential closing stretch of the cycle.”
* * * Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr. reads assaults from pundits in new video from tremendous PAC: ‘He’s nuts’” [The Hill]. “The video begins with Kennedy, studying: “‘He’s nuts and clearly disturbed,’ The Customary; ‘He’s indignant,’ Self-importance Honest; ‘His family hates him,’ The New York Publish; ‘He seems like he’s transmitting from one other galaxy he’s so loopy,’ The New York Publish; ‘Kennedy is a humorless bully residing in a paranoid fantasy,’ Self-importance Honest; ‘What the f— is flawed with Bobby Kennedy?’… Kennedy then laughs to himself, and the digicam switches to a low, profile shot, giving the looks of a behind-the-scenes view of the manufacturing crew. Kennedy leans over his shoulder, appears into the digicam immediately and says, “I wouldn’t vote for that man both.’The title of the video — “Who’s Bobby Kennedy?” with the subhead, “‘What if he’s not loopy?’” — then flashes throughout the display. The rest of the video introduces the viewers to the candidate’s biography…. Following the video’s launch on Friday, Meta-owned Fb and Instagram initially blocked the video on each platforms. A spokesperson for Meta mentioned the video was incorrectly flagged as spam and the problem was addressed quickly after it was found.” • A mistake by Meta. After all. Right here’s the video:
Kennedy (I): On the Pandemic Treaty:
49 Republican Senators wrote to President Biden demanding he withdraw U.S. help for the WHO Pandemic “Settlement” and main amendments to the Worldwide Well being Laws.
The Senators level out that these 2 paperwork would:
1. Give the WHO Director-Common the authority… pic.twitter.com/4AniXvwkrZ
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) Might 4, 2024
* * * “A Story of Two Elections” [National Populist Newsletter]. “Whereas nationwide polling stays tight, there’s a major divide within the electoral school polling separated between the South and the Midwest. This election comes all the way down to The Solar Belt vs. The Rust Belt…. For the informal political observer who doesn’t know, the Solar Belt is the strip of 14 states south of the thirty sixth parallel. It’s extremely numerous, closely Hispanic, fast-growing, and value 234 electoral school votes. This area has the crucial swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada – all of which had been determined by lower than 5 factors.” I don’t suppose both Texas or Florida are Swing States, although Democrats want they had been. Extra: “The Rust Belt is the area of the Midwest that when represented the economic base of the USA after WWII. It went from the Metal Belt to the Rust Belt as jobs moved abroad throughout globalization, and mining and vitality jobs began disappearing. The Rust Belt contains Western New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are the three most vital states which have an opportunity of flipping.” And: “From 2020, whites with no school diploma will make up greater than 1 / 4 of Biden’s base, and within the Rust Belt, it’s near a majority. Trump might want to hold these voters as a result of he can not depend on his rising help from Latinos and Asians to make up the distinction in these states.” • Hmm.
Democrats en Déshabillé
“Jeffries: Democrats ‘successfully’ in majority as a consequence of GOP ‘chaos, dysfunction’” [The Hill]. “Jeffries mentioned Sunday in a CBS “60 Minutes” interview with Norah O’Donnell that Democrats maintain outright affect over the Home due to how fractured the GOP majority is. ‘Despite the fact that we’re within the minority, we successfully have been governing as if we had been within the majority as a result of we proceed to supply a majority of the votes essential to get issues completed,’ Jeffries mentioned. ‘These are simply the details.’ ‘It’s a troublesome scenario on the opposite facet of the aisle, as a result of lots of my Republican colleagues are extra taken with creating chaos, dysfunction, and extremism,’ he continued. The Republican majority within the Home stands at simply 5 seats, with all in attendance, that means Johnson has no room for error on controversial payments to make sure passage with out working with Democrats. Johnson additionally faces an ouster menace from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who has blasted the Speaker for working with Democrats and making a ‘uniparty.’ Jeffries and Democrats have mentioned they may shield Johnson in opposition to Greene’s movement to vacate. He mentioned that Johnson has not requested him for assist, however that backing the Speaker is what must be completed.” • Nice. So codify Roe, or one thing.
2020 Publish Mortem
“Sen. Tom Cotton: The 2020 Election ‘Was Not Honest’ And ‘Was Rigged In Many Methods’” [RealClearPolitics]. “Arkansas Republican Sen. Tom Cotton informed ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday that he agrees with Donald Trump that the 2020 election ‘was rigged in some ways.’ For instance, Cotton cites ‘Democratic states and cities altering election legal guidelines and election practices as much as the final minute,’ ‘the media… and 51 Democratic intelligence operatives saying the Hunter Biden laptop computer was Russian disinformation,’ and ‘social media then censoring all these issues.’ ‘These had been all deeply unfair,’ Cotton mentioned. ‘I by no means, and Donald Trump has by no means, mentioned… loopy conspiracies about Venezuela rigging the voting machines.’” • All that could be true — on the Hunter Biden laptop computer debacle, Cotton is undoubtedly proper — however that’s not the case Trump made on the time. Trump — as a result of, I feel, he’s sloppy and undisciplined, and on this case had extraordinarily dangerous recommendation — went for the balloting course of (and did so with out involving any of the specialists who might have proven him the place the vulnerabilities within the system truly are. Because of this, hand-marked paper ballots, hand-counted in public have turn into MAGA-adjacent, as an alternative of being percieved as the worldwide normal they the truth is are [pounds head on desk]).
Pandemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
Elite Maleficence
TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new right this moment; all others should not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a degree far above valleys underneath Trump. Not a fantastic victory. Notice additionally the world “underneath the curve,” moreover taking a look at peaks. That space is bigger underneath Biden than underneath Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.
[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.2 has entered the chat, no less than within the mannequin. As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I feel in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to verify. UPDATE Sure, go away it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal knowledge, if any. I preferred the ER knowledge, as a result of it appeared actually arduous to recreation.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flattening out to a non-zero baseline. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it appears like “endemicity,” however to me it appears like one other tranche of lethality.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Slight uptick.
[8] (Cleveland) Leveling out.
[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Flattens.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates completely. Nonetheless no point out of KP.2
[11] Appears to be like just like the Instances isn’t reporting dying knowledge any extra? Perhaps I want to return to The Economist….
Stats Watch
There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity right this moment.
Manufacturing: “Boeing faces 10 extra whistleblowers after two die: ‘Folks’s lives are at stake’” [New York Post]. “[Barnett and Dean lawyer Brian] Knowles identified that the Charleston, SC, police are nonetheless wrapping up their investigation of Barnett’s dying — and that it might take some weeks for exams to disclose extra about Dean’s passing.” • The Charleston police are certainbly taking their very own candy time, aren’t they? And the “exams” for Dean are his mom demanding an post-mortem.
Manufacturing: “Industrial jet maker Airbus is staying humble at the same time as Boeing flounders. There’s a purpose for that” [Associated Press]. “Airbus has outpaced Boeing for 5 straight years in airplane orders and deliveries, and simply reported a 28% quarterly improve in internet revenue. It was already successful market share by beating Boeing to develop a line of fuel-efficient, mid-sized plane which are cheaper for airways to fly…. But the European firm is unlikely to increase its benefit within the Airbus-Boeing duopoly a lot additional regardless of having prospects clamoring for extra industrial plane, in keeping with aviation analysts. The explanation: Airbus already is making planes as quick as it may well and has a backlog of greater than 8,600 orders to fill.” • That’s so much. Perhaps COMAC can choose up the slack.
At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 40 Worry (earlier shut: 39 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 43 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Might 6 at 1:35:49 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is nice.) • Chicken flu not a priority, apparently. And I hate even to go right here, however the “Tribulation Temple” class is a mere 3. If Tribulation Temple = Third Temple = no matter temple it’s that the Crimson Heifer loons need to construct, then the Rapture Index is making a name, and it’s saying “Don’t fear in regards to the Crimson Heifers.”
Guillotine Watch
These folks have an excessive amount of cash:
Nachos are $180 at F1 Miami
We’d like a dozen extra charge hikes pic.twitter.com/LXcC8LT6pj
— Inverse Cramer (Not Jim Cramer) (@CramerTracker) Might 5, 2024
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired right this moment.
Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “I’ve despatched pictures of pink flowers on our Silk Floss Tree, however I don’t suppose I’ve despatched any of the pods. That is the primary yr that we’ve seen these “fruit” pods behave like different Silk Floss bushes we’ve seen. Given how a lot rain now we have seen up to now few months, I’ve concluded that I’d not been watering the poor pricey sufficient. It used to develop these pods and seemingly get no farther. They’d not get this massive, would keep inexperienced, and cling to the tree for MONTHS. However now they’re maturing to the purpose of the outer pod going brown, splitting and falling to the bottom, leaving the “Silk Floss” to patiently await a pleasant breeze. On windy days we’ve seen the fibers all around the again yard, and even within the entrance (tree is in again) and questioned if the neighbors had been getting it additionally, likely questioning what the heck it’s.” Pod folks, please be at liberty to remark!
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